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> Tropical Storm Rina, 10AM CDT: TS 70MPH - 989MB - NNW @ 6MPH
jdrenken
post Oct 24 2011, 01:20 PM
Post #21




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 32,748
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From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
200 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...RINA QUICKLY BECOMES A HURRICANE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED...



SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 83.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE...THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...
120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND RINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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NorEaster07
post Oct 24 2011, 01:51 PM
Post #22




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Forecasted to become a Major hurricane before hitting Mexico and quickly making a right turn heading to western tip of Cuba.

Source


Attached Image


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NorEaster07
post Oct 24 2011, 01:56 PM
Post #23




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

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Posts: 11,193
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Attached Image


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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Juniorrr
post Oct 24 2011, 03:16 PM
Post #24




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Posts: 6,486
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From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





QUOTE(WEATHERFREAK @ Oct 24 2011, 12:30 PM) *
A good chance this'll feed into the EC storm this weekend.

I don't see how it would when it would still be near the tip of Western Cuba by Saturday... Plus there is shear and dry air north of the system taking away any moisture that would head north for now.

OT~ Rina looks to be a little healthy hurricane that could very well become major soon.

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Oct 24 2011, 03:17 PM


--------------------
2013-2014 snowfall total: 52.2""
11/5/13: trace
11/12/13: 1"
11/26/13: 0.5-1"
12/6/13: 6.5"
12/10/13: 3.0"
12/13/13: 3.0"
12/16/13: 1.2"
1/2/14: 6.0"
1/5/14: 1.1"
1/9/14: 2.2"
1/16/14: 1.1"
1/17/14: 3.1"
1/18/14: 3.8"
1/21/14: 1.8"
1/25/14: 3.7"
1/26/14: ~1.5"
2/5/14: 6" w/glaze of ice
2/9/14: 1.5"
2/15/14: 3.7"
3/4/14: 2.0"
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jdrenken
post Oct 24 2011, 04:08 PM
Post #25




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From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
500 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...RINA TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 83.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.1 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND RINA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

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jdrenken
post Oct 24 2011, 04:10 PM
Post #26




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE
HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
500 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SEVERAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF RINA AND A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS NOT REPORTED
ANY STRONGER WINDS SINCE THEIR INITIAL PASS INTO THE CENTER JUST
BEFORE 1800 UTC...AND BASED ON THE EARLIER DATA THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT.

RINA WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATER AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ONLY NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CYCLONE. SO FAR...RINA HAS REMAINED WELL INSULATED FROM THE
DRY AIR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE DRY AIR WILL NOT
REACH THE CORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...
SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND RINA IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE ISSUED IN THE
SPECIAL ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE GFDL AND HWRF GUIDANCE THROUGH 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...IT IS CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL
AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF
THE HURRICANE...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE RAPID CHANGES
BOTH UP AND DOWN IN ITS INTENSITY.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED DOWN. A
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO STEER RINA WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN
NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE
TRACK GUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF
TAKING THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD...AND THE GFS SHOWING AN
EASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST
REMAINS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND SHOWS A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST
MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE POOR RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THERE IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST OF RINA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 17.1N 83.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 17.2N 83.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 17.3N 84.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 17.6N 85.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 18.1N 86.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 19.8N 87.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 21.0N 87.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 21.5N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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WEATHERFREAK
post Oct 24 2011, 05:45 PM
Post #27




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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Oct 24 2011, 04:16 PM) *
I don't see how it would when it would still be near the tip of Western Cuba by Saturday... Plus there is shear and dry air north of the system taking away any moisture that would head north for now.


True...but an amplified trough is expected late this week/weekend. And since this became a Hurricane, my thoughts are it'll most likely speed up NE through Florida Bay Friday as an Cat 1 Hurricane/tropical/extra tropical storm. Out ahead of an approaching cold front. And then it's remnants could get fed into a Noreaster up north. Or dance with 97L in the Atlantic(if that develops into Sean).

This post has been edited by WEATHERFREAK: Oct 24 2011, 05:46 PM


--------------------
"WINDY HAS WINGS TO FLY."
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Removed_Member_natedizel_*
post Oct 24 2011, 05:57 PM
Post #28







Guests








QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 24 2011, 02:51 PM) *
Forecasted to become a Major hurricane before hitting Mexico and quickly making a right turn heading to western tip of Cuba.

Source


Attached Image

i cant wait for Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez forecast on the storm. America deflects storm from Mexico to hit Cuba blink.gif
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Juniorrr
post Oct 24 2011, 07:22 PM
Post #29




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QUOTE(WEATHERFREAK @ Oct 24 2011, 06:45 PM) *
True...but an amplified trough is expected late this week/weekend. And since this became a Hurricane, my thoughts are it'll most likely speed up NE through Florida Bay Friday as an Cat 1 Hurricane/tropical/extra tropical storm. Out ahead of an approaching cold front. And then it's remnants could get fed into a Noreaster up north. Or dance with 97L in the Atlantic(if that develops into Sean).

Yes but the track guidance is still pretty reliable at this hurricane staying in the Caribbean for the next few days. Also some models are predicting a hard right turn to keep it in the Caribbean.


--------------------
2013-2014 snowfall total: 52.2""
11/5/13: trace
11/12/13: 1"
11/26/13: 0.5-1"
12/6/13: 6.5"
12/10/13: 3.0"
12/13/13: 3.0"
12/16/13: 1.2"
1/2/14: 6.0"
1/5/14: 1.1"
1/9/14: 2.2"
1/16/14: 1.1"
1/17/14: 3.1"
1/18/14: 3.8"
1/21/14: 1.8"
1/25/14: 3.7"
1/26/14: ~1.5"
2/5/14: 6" w/glaze of ice
2/9/14: 1.5"
2/15/14: 3.7"
3/4/14: 2.0"
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WEATHERFREAK
post Oct 24 2011, 07:43 PM
Post #30




Rank: Tornado
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Posts: 334
Joined: 3-June 07
From: Sarasota, FL.
Member No.: 6,152





QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Oct 24 2011, 08:22 PM) *
Also some models are predicting a hard right turn to keep it in the Caribbean.


I'm more for the progressive camp by Thursday. There's just no way it will bypass the affects of this trough the tail end of this week. wink.gif

That being said. Had yesterdays models(for the overall eastern conus setup) paned out, I would've gone more for a Caribbean bias.


--------------------
"WINDY HAS WINGS TO FLY."
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albanyweather
post Oct 24 2011, 08:59 PM
Post #31




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Posts: 6,225
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From: Albany, NY
Member No.: 17,493





She is looking pretty good. A little exposed on the north side.
Attached Image


--------------------
Winter Advisories: 5
Winter Watch: 5
Winter Warning: 4
Ice Storm Warning: 0
Blizzard Warning: 0


Snowfall 2013-2014: 77.8"
Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7"
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idecline
post Oct 25 2011, 02:32 AM
Post #32




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From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 24 2011, 01:51 PM) *
Forecasted to become a Major hurricane before hitting Mexico and quickly making a right turn heading to western tip of Cuba.

Source


Attached Image


The 'cone' of uncertainty looks more like a 'circle' of uncertainty...she might even 'loop de loop' ...jk!


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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jdrenken
post Oct 25 2011, 07:08 AM
Post #33




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,748
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...RINA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
EXPECTED...



SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 83.8W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREAS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF RINA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND RINA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
AND HURRICANE WATCH AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Oct 25 2011, 03:13 PM
Post #34




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

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Posts: 32,748
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From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...RINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 84.2W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF RINA WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
RINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING
RINA...AND WILL PROVIDE DATA ON THE INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE
SHORTLY.


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

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+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Oct 25 2011, 06:44 PM
Post #35




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,748
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...RINA SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 84.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
* THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
NORTH AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THURSDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE
. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT
IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Oct 25 2011, 08:11 PM
Post #36




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,748
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...RINA MEANDERING WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 84.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...425 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
* THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
NORTH AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THURSDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE
THE COAST OF YUCATAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING RINA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Oct 25 2011, 09:57 PM
Post #37




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,748
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...RINA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT ANY TIME...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 84.8W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
* THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6
KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE EAST
COAST OF YUCATAN WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. RINA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT ANY
TIME.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MAKING
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Oct 25 2011, 09:58 PM
Post #38




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,748
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

THE EYE BECAME OBSCURED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
CONSEQUENTLY T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE
BIT. HOWEVER...LATEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A DISTINCT EYE FEATURE
WHICH IS BETTER DEFINED THAN IN EARLIER DATA. A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE MEASURED A LOWER MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 966 MB...BUT NEITHER SFMR OR FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
INDICATE THAT RINA IS STRONGER THAN A FEW HOURS AGO. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 95 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE VERY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
PREVAILING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...RINA COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT ANY TIME BEFORE REACHING EASTERN
YUCATAN. THEREAFTER...RINA WILL FIND A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF
STRONG SHEAR OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH MOST
LIKELY WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE SIGNIFICANTLY.

RINA HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD ABOUT 3 KNOTS...TRAPPED SOUTH OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. BUT SOON...THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD...AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE...STILL VERY
SLOWLY...TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND BE VERY NEAR NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN IN 48 HOURS. THERE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST SINCE
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THIS MOTION.
BEYOND 48 HOURS...AS RINA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES CONSIDERABLY. BY THEN...RINA EITHER RECURVES
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR MEANDERS NEAR YUCATAN AS A
SHALLOW CYCLONE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST
CALLS FOR RECURVATURE AND BRINGS A WEAKENING RINA NEAR THE NORTH
COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 17.5N 84.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 17.9N 85.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 19.0N 86.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 20.2N 86.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 21.3N 86.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 23.0N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 23.5N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 31/0000Z 23.5N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Oct 26 2011, 06:59 AM
Post #39




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,748
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
700 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

...RINA CONTINUES ITS SLOW MOTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 85.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
* THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY LATE THURSDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE TODAY OR TONIGHT.
SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER RINA
MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
115 MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

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+Quote Post
WEATHERFREAK
post Oct 26 2011, 09:56 AM
Post #40




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 334
Joined: 3-June 07
From: Sarasota, FL.
Member No.: 6,152





Looks like a more progressive NE track after Thurs/Fri.


--------------------
"WINDY HAS WINGS TO FLY."
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