Tropical Storm Rina - AccuWeather.com Forums

Tropical Storm Rina, 10AM CDT: TS 70MPH - 989MB - NNW @ 6MPH

jdrenken View Member Profile	Oct 24 2011, 01:20 PM Post #21
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521	QUOTE BULLETIN HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 200 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011 ...RINA QUICKLY BECOMES A HURRICANE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 83.0W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BELIZE...THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH... 120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND RINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.

NorEaster07

Oct 24 2011, 01:51 PM

Post #22

Rank: F5 Superstorm

Group: Member
Posts: 8,457
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach)
Member No.: 18,864

Forecasted to become a Major hurricane before hitting Mexico and quickly making a right turn heading to western tip of Cuba.

Source

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Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"

Average(since 1950) = 27.75"

NorEaster07

Oct 24 2011, 01:56 PM

Post #23

Rank: F5 Superstorm

Group: Member
Posts: 8,457
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach)
Member No.: 18,864

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Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"

Average(since 1950) = 27.75"

Juniorrr View Member Profile	Oct 24 2011, 03:16 PM Post #24
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,457 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413	QUOTE(WEATHERFREAK @ Oct 24 2011, 12:30 PM) A good chance this'll feed into the EC storm this weekend. I don't see how it would when it would still be near the tip of Western Cuba by Saturday... Plus there is shear and dry air north of the system taking away any moisture that would head north for now. OT~ Rina looks to be a little healthy hurricane that could very well become major soon. This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Oct 24 2011, 03:17 PM

jdrenken View Member Profile	Oct 24 2011, 04:08 PM Post #25
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521	QUOTE BULLETIN HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 500 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011 ...RINA TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 83.1W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.1 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND RINA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.

jdrenken View Member Profile	Oct 24 2011, 04:10 PM Post #26
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521	QUOTE HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 500 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SEVERAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF RINA AND A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS NOT REPORTED ANY STRONGER WINDS SINCE THEIR INITIAL PASS INTO THE CENTER JUST BEFORE 1800 UTC...AND BASED ON THE EARLIER DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT. RINA WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATER AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. SO FAR...RINA HAS REMAINED WELL INSULATED FROM THE DRY AIR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE DRY AIR WILL NOT REACH THE CORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT... SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND RINA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE ISSUED IN THE SPECIAL ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE GFDL AND HWRF GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...IT IS CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF THE HURRICANE...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE RAPID CHANGES BOTH UP AND DOWN IN ITS INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED DOWN. A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER RINA WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK GUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF TAKING THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD...AND THE GFS SHOWING AN EASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND SHOWS A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THERE IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST OF RINA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 17.1N 83.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 17.2N 83.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 17.3N 84.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 17.6N 85.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 18.1N 86.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 19.8N 87.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 21.0N 87.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 21.5N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.

WEATHERFREAK View Member Profile	Oct 24 2011, 05:45 PM Post #27
Rank: Tornado Group: Founding Member Posts: 279 Joined: 3-June 07 From: orlando Member No.: 6,152	QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Oct 24 2011, 04:16 PM) I don't see how it would when it would still be near the tip of Western Cuba by Saturday... Plus there is shear and dry air north of the system taking away any moisture that would head north for now. True...but an amplified trough is expected late this week/weekend. And since this became a Hurricane, my thoughts are it'll most likely speed up NE through Florida Bay Friday as an Cat 1 Hurricane/tropical/extra tropical storm. Out ahead of an approaching cold front. And then it's remnants could get fed into a Noreaster up north. Or dance with 97L in the Atlantic(if that develops into Sean). This post has been edited by WEATHERFREAK: Oct 24 2011, 05:46 PM -------------------- "WINDY HAS WINGS TO FLY."

natedizel

Oct 24 2011, 05:57 PM

Post #28

Rank: F5 Superstorm

Group: Member
Posts: 677
Joined: 4-May 08
From: Pawtucket, RI
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 24 2011, 02:51 PM)

Forecasted to become a Major hurricane before hitting Mexico and quickly making a right turn heading to western tip of Cuba.

Source

i cant wait for Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez forecast on the storm. America deflects storm from Mexico to hit Cuba

Juniorrr View Member Profile	Oct 24 2011, 07:22 PM Post #29
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,457 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413	QUOTE(WEATHERFREAK @ Oct 24 2011, 06:45 PM) True...but an amplified trough is expected late this week/weekend. And since this became a Hurricane, my thoughts are it'll most likely speed up NE through Florida Bay Friday as an Cat 1 Hurricane/tropical/extra tropical storm. Out ahead of an approaching cold front. And then it's remnants could get fed into a Noreaster up north. Or dance with 97L in the Atlantic(if that develops into Sean). Yes but the track guidance is still pretty reliable at this hurricane staying in the Caribbean for the next few days. Also some models are predicting a hard right turn to keep it in the Caribbean.

WEATHERFREAK View Member Profile	Oct 24 2011, 07:43 PM Post #30
Rank: Tornado Group: Founding Member Posts: 279 Joined: 3-June 07 From: orlando Member No.: 6,152	QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Oct 24 2011, 08:22 PM) Also some models are predicting a hard right turn to keep it in the Caribbean. I'm more for the progressive camp by Thursday. There's just no way it will bypass the affects of this trough the tail end of this week. That being said. Had yesterdays models(for the overall eastern conus setup) paned out, I would've gone more for a Caribbean bias. -------------------- "WINDY HAS WINGS TO FLY."

albanyweather

Oct 24 2011, 08:59 PM

Post #31

Rank: F5 Superstorm

Group: Member
Posts: 6,039
Joined: 5-February 09
From: Albany, NY
Member No.: 17,493

She is looking pretty good. A little exposed on the north side.

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2013 Thunder Storm Days: 2
Severe Watches: 2
Severe Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 0
Tornado Warnings: 0

Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Snowfall 2008-2009: 52.5"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7"

idecline

Oct 25 2011, 02:32 AM

Post #32

Rank: F5 Superstorm

Group: Member
Posts: 17,358
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866

QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 24 2011, 01:51 PM)

Forecasted to become a Major hurricane before hitting Mexico and quickly making a right turn heading to western tip of Cuba.

Source

The 'cone' of uncertainty looks more like a 'circle' of uncertainty...she might even 'loop de loop' ...jk!

--------------------

Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll

jdrenken View Member Profile	Oct 25 2011, 07:08 AM Post #33
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521	QUOTE BULLETIN HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 800 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011 ...RINA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 83.8W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CANCUN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREAS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND RINA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCH AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.

jdrenken View Member Profile	Oct 25 2011, 03:13 PM Post #34
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521	QUOTE BULLETIN HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 200 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011 ...RINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 84.2W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CANCUN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING RINA...AND WILL PROVIDE DATA ON THE INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE SHORTLY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.

jdrenken View Member Profile	Oct 25 2011, 06:44 PM Post #35
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521	QUOTE BULLETIN HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 500 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011 ...RINA SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 84.3W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CANCUN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD * THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD NORTH AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT... MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.

jdrenken View Member Profile	Oct 25 2011, 08:11 PM Post #36
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521	QUOTE BULLETIN HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 800 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011 ...RINA MEANDERING WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 84.5W ABOUT 260 MI...425 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CANCUN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD * THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD NORTH AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE THE COAST OF YUCATAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING RINA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT... MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BERG -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.

jdrenken View Member Profile	Oct 25 2011, 09:57 PM Post #37
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521	QUOTE BULLETIN HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011 ...RINA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT ANY TIME... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 84.8W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CANCUN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD * THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. RINA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT ANY TIME. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BERG -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.

jdrenken View Member Profile	Oct 25 2011, 09:58 PM Post #38
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521	QUOTE HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011 THE EYE BECAME OBSCURED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND CONSEQUENTLY T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE BIT. HOWEVER...LATEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A DISTINCT EYE FEATURE WHICH IS BETTER DEFINED THAN IN EARLIER DATA. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE MEASURED A LOWER MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 966 MB...BUT NEITHER SFMR OR FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT RINA IS STRONGER THAN A FEW HOURS AGO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 95 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE VERY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT PREVAILING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...RINA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT ANY TIME BEFORE REACHING EASTERN YUCATAN. THEREAFTER...RINA WILL FIND A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SHEAR OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE SIGNIFICANTLY. RINA HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD ABOUT 3 KNOTS...TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. BUT SOON...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD...AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE...STILL VERY SLOWLY...TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND BE VERY NEAR NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN IN 48 HOURS. THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THIS MOTION. BEYOND 48 HOURS...AS RINA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES CONSIDERABLY. BY THEN...RINA EITHER RECURVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR MEANDERS NEAR YUCATAN AS A SHALLOW CYCLONE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR RECURVATURE AND BRINGS A WEAKENING RINA NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 17.5N 84.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 17.9N 85.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 19.0N 86.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 20.2N 86.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 21.3N 86.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 23.0N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 23.5N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 31/0000Z 23.5N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BERG -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.

jdrenken View Member Profile	Oct 26 2011, 06:59 AM Post #39
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521	QUOTE BULLETIN HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 700 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011 ...RINA CONTINUES ITS SLOW MOTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 85.3W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CANCUN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD * THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY LATE THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY OR TONIGHT. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER RINA MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH FRIDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.

WEATHERFREAK View Member Profile	Oct 26 2011, 09:56 AM Post #40
Rank: Tornado Group: Founding Member Posts: 279 Joined: 3-June 07 From: orlando Member No.: 6,152	Looks like a more progressive NE track after Thurs/Fri. -------------------- "WINDY HAS WINGS TO FLY."

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