Tropical Storm Rina, 10AM CDT: TS 70MPH - 989MB - NNW @ 6MPH Options

[jdrenken]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

...RINA NOW MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED
FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 85.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CANCUN TO SAN FELIPE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
PROGRESO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
PROGRESO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
* THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TODAY...AND A FASTER WEAKENING MAY OCCUR AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR
OR OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTER OF RINA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[jdrenken]

HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

RINA HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE THIS MORNING. THE EYE IS NOT
APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND DATA FROM THE RADARS AT BELIZE
CITY AND ON THE TRMM SATELLITE SUGGEST THE EYEWALL HAS LOST SOME
DEFINITION. WHILE THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER
THAN -80C...THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CYCLONE HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THE OUTFLOW HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST 15-20 KT
OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS AND IT IS
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ABOUT TO
REACH THE STORM WILL FIND RINA HAS WEAKENED.

THE RECENT CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT RINA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE
RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW
290/4. RINA IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO ITS EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGES TO THE NORTH AND WEST TO WEAKEN DURING
THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD
CAUSE RINA TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
OLD ONE. AFTER 72 HOURS...RINA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER THE
CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER IT
SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RINA TO SHEAR
APART...BUT THE MODELS DISAGREE ON WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN AND THUS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN WEAKEN RINA VERY QUICKLY AND KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT
NEAR YUCATAN...WHILE THE GFDL FORECASTS A STRONGER CYCLONE TO CROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE OTHER MODELS ARE BETWEEN
THESE EXTREMES. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND
NOGAPS MODELS. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

SINCE THE OUTFLOW IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER...IT APPEARS THAT RINA HAS RUN OUT
OF TIME TO INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE
HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH A
FASTER WEAKENING AT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF JUST HOW QUICKLY RINA WILL SHEAR APART OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THE FORECAST KEEPS RINA A HURRICANE THROUGH 72
HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 120 HOURS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MUCH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 17.9N 85.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.5N 86.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 19.5N 87.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 20.8N 87.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 22.0N 87.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 29/1200Z 23.0N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 23.5N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 23.5N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[jdrenken]

Belize Radar

WV

[jdrenken]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 25 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-147

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE RINA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. 26/1800Z A. 27/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0818A RINA B. NOAA2 0918A RINA
C. 26/1445Z C. 26/2000Z
D. 18.6N 86.0W D. 19.1N 86.5W
E. 26/1730Z TO 26/2100Z E. 26/2230Z TO 27/0200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42
A. 27/0600Z A. 27/1200Z
B. AFXXX 1018A RINA B. NOAA2 1118A RINA
C. 27/0300Z C. 27/0800Z
D. 19.6N 86.7W D. 20.2N 87.0W
E. 27/0530Z TO 27/0900Z E. 27/1030Z TO 27/1400Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 28/0600Z.
B. A P-3 FLIGHT AT 27/2000Z
C. A G-IV MISSION FOR 27/1730Z

3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A BUOY MISSION FOR 28/1130Z.
4. REMARK: THE G-IV WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND
RINA DEDARTING 26/1730Z.

[jdrenken]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1230 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT RINA IS A CATEGORY 1
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1230 PM CDT...1730 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 85.8W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
PROGRESO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
* THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1230 PM CDT...1730 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR
OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...RINA IS EXPECTED TO
BE AT HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN THE CENTER PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA AIRCRAFT IS
982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[jdrenken]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

...RINA NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 85.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
PROGRESO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA
WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ON THURSDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER OF RINA NEARS THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[jdrenken]

HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...DATA FROM THE BELIZE CITY RADAR...AND
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST
THAT RINA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KT AND
SFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 75-78 KT...WHILE AN EYEWALL
DROPSONDE SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS NEAR 70 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 75 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DATA. THE AIRCRAFT DATA
SUGGEST THE VORTEX IS TILTED WITH HEIGHT...AS DROPSONDES AT THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED 25-30 KT SURFACE
WINDS. THIS TILT IS LIKELY DUE TO 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR DEPICTED IN ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN.

RITA HAS CONTINUED ITS SLOW RIGHT TURN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 310/5. THE FORECAST TRACK AND PHILOSOPHY ARE UNCHANGED FOR THE
FIRST 48 HOURS...WITH THE HURRICANE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES
VERY PROBLEMATIC AFTER 48 HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF HOW RINA
INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND HOW LONG IT HOLDS TOGETHER
VERTICALLY. THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE
SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER FLORIDA OR THE FLORIDA
STRAITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...UKMET...AND
CANADIAN MODELS NOW FORECAST RINA OR ITS REMNANTS TO MAKE A HAIRPIN
TURN AND MOVE SOUTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN. THE
GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND HWRF MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES...FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THESE MODELS AND IS THUS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. THIS LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

RINA IS FORECAST TO BE IN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. THIS...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION...
SUGGESTS IT SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME. AFTER 36
HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR AS THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER IT SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE RINA TO WEAKEN IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A FASTER WEAKENING
THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DECAY SHIPS
MODEL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS RELATIVELY SMALL SYSTEM COULD
WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
120 HOURS OR EARLIER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 18.2N 85.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 18.7N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 20.0N 86.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 21.4N 86.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1800Z 22.5N 86.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 29/1800Z 23.0N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 22.5N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 22.5N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[jdrenken]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

...RINA WEAKENS AS IT HEADS FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 86.9W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
PROGRESO

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
OBSERVATIONS IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[jdrenken]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT RINA HAS WEAKENED TO A
TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 87.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST AND NORTH COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL
TO PROGRESO

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. RINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL MOVE NEAR
OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER. THE MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION AT BANCO CHINCHORRO
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H...AND A WIND
GUST OF 55 MPH...88 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ONTO THE COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[WEATHERFREAK]

Looks like this front will act as a shield keeping moisture from seeping into Central Florida after it's passage this Halloween Weekend!

[snow wonder]

Scroll down the page and click on tropical outlook and you get an I 70 forecast for snow tonight

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/index.asp

[jdrenken]

Scroll down the page and click on tropical outlook and you get an I 70 forecast for snow tonight

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/index.asp

They must have fixed it.

[snow wonder]

They must have fixed it.

Third pic down on the left ?

[snow wonder]

Third pic down on the left ?

I got it now theres a menu underneath which leads me to the tropical update Thanks JD