INVEST 97L, Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential: Medium - 30% Options

[Ron in Miami]

BEGIN
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invest_al972011.invest
FSTDA
R
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040
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201110250016
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NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2011, DB, O, 2011102118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972011
AL, 97, 2011102018, , BEST, 0, 94N, 534W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011102100, , BEST, 0, 95N, 539W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011102106, , BEST, 0, 97N, 545W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011102112, , BEST, 0, 97N, 548W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011102118, , BEST, 0, 96N, 551W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 240, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 97, 2011102200, , BEST, 0, 97N, 553W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 97, 2011102206, , BEST, 0, 98N, 554W, 25, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011102212, , BEST, 0, 99N, 555W, 20, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 240, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 97, 2011102218, , BEST, 0, 104N, 556W, 20, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 270, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 97, 2011102300, , BEST, 0, 109N, 557W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 270, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 97, 2011102306, , BEST, 0, 115N, 559W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011102312, , BEST, 0, 118N, 566W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011102318, , BEST, 0, 119N, 576W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011102400, , BEST, 0, 119N, 588W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011102406, , BEST, 0, 120N, 601W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 260, 150, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011102412, , BEST, 0, 121N, 614W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 140, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 97, 2011102418, , BEST, 0, 123N, 628W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 220, 125, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 97, 2011102500, , BEST, 0, 125N, 643W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[Ron in Miami]

[rainstorm]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?ir-e

looks impressive but can it develop with rina so close?

[idecline]

Up to 40%

National Hurricane Center Outlook
NHC Atlantic Activity

000
ABNT20 KNHC 250555
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTH OF CURACAO IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT
BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER ARUBA...CURACAO AND BONAIRE...THE NORTHWESTERN COAST
OF VENEZUELA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA TODAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

And looking very healthy as of 1:15 am PST

This post has been edited by idecline: Oct 25 2011, 06:11 AM