November 6-10 MidAtl/NE Warmup, Please Post Last Minute Forecast and OBS Options

[Undertakerson]

Well, now that most models are strongly signalling a signficant trough in the Central US, that means we get a shot of southwest flow up into our region. Question being - how far up the scale can we climb during this "Indian Summer"

Euro 12z



GFS 12z



DGEX 18z



This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Nov 2 2011, 05:07 PM

[NYCSuburbs]

I was about to start a thread on this but you beat me to it

The real warm H85 temps arrive here by Sunday, but it doesn't look like surface temperatures are much warmer, with 50s persisting in the northern Mid Atlantic and the NE. Because the cold front from the Midwest storm fails to move through, however, temps will warm up by early next week, and I can see widspread 60s as far north as the southern/central Northeast. If there's any 70s out of this, they should stay down to the Mid Atlantic.

A little OT, but hopefully it's a good sign that I haven't been the first to open threads lately... last year, the three storm threads I opened during the winter months coincidentally happened to be the three big blizzards of last winter, hopefully my luck works again this year and the next storm thread I open turns into a snowstorm

[Undertakerson]

I was about to start a thread on this but you beat me to it

The real warm H85 temps arrive here by Sunday, but it doesn't look like surface temperatures are much warmer, with 50s persisting in the northern Mid Atlantic and the NE. Because the cold front from the Midwest storm fails to move through, however, temps will warm up by early next week, and I can see widspread 60s as far north as the southern/central Northeast. If there's any 70s out of this, they should stay down to the Mid Atlantic.

A little OT, but hopefully it's a good sign that I haven't been the first to open threads lately... last year, the three storm threads I opened during the winter months coincidentally happened to be the three big blizzards of last winter, hopefully my luck works again this year and the next storm thread I open turns into a snowstorm

Yes sir.

Maybe JD or another mod can tweak the date.

I just thought the last best shot would be ~8th as the trough may hang just a bit - depending on the strength of the Hp that seems to retreat NE on the 6-7th from the region as a backdoor cool front perhaps (north and east fetch as it disipates out to the N Atl) before rebuilding to the upper south (if I can call it that) / southern Mid Atl. It too scoots out, but not before dragging in some relatively balmy air prior to the rain of the 10th -11th.

And if you even think of starting a thread for the Xmas-NY period you would do so at risking my wrath. I have to go to Vegas and fly through OHare and back into Dulles. No threads/storms please

[Fire/Rescue]

I was about to start a thread on this but you beat me to it

The real warm H85 temps arrive here by Sunday, but it doesn't look like surface temperatures are much warmer, with 50s persisting in the northern Mid Atlantic and the NE. Because the cold front from the Midwest storm fails to move through, however, temps will warm up by early next week, and I can see widspread 60s as far north as the southern/central Northeast. If there's any 70s out of this, they should stay down to the Mid Atlantic.

Yes as my Long range on Accu-Wx is still indicating a few days of Upper 60's here IMBY during this potential "Warm Up"

[Undertakerson]

NWS State College

MODELS INDICATING A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVES TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT...AND LIGHT RAIN MAY REACH WESTERN SECTIONS TUE NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WED-WED NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPS
REMAIN MILD THROUGH FROPA /UP TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL/...AND ONLY
DROP BACK TO NORMAL AFTERWARD WITH NO LARGE-SCALE OUTBREAK OF COLD
AIR IN SIGHT.

Average monthly highs from my region are 53F as per TWC graphs so we may not quite reach 70's from 40N on up. Then again, with flow coming out of the south or southwest, if it's moist enough it just may make it, especially along the 95 corridor with Phila having probably the best chance. It would really have to be a vigorous punch for NYS and New Engl to get into 65+ range - esp. with the HP not ideally positioned in the Atl.

Edit - finished typing this and visited NWS Phila

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, A STRONG SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. THERE MAY STILL BE A LITTLE GUSTINESS TIED TO THE CAA IN THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST SATURDAY, BUT
OVERALL THIS SHOULD BE TRENDING DOWNWARD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATING ON SUNDAY,
THEREFORE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP A BIT MORE.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ONE MAIN STORM TRACKS UP THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR WAA TO OCCUR. THIS TIME FRAME MAY END UP
A BIT WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

Some fine days though to continue to soldier on with the clean up from the 10/29 snow storm.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Nov 3 2011, 03:24 AM

[Undertakerson]

AccuWx joins in with this headliner

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/stor...ible-in-the.asp

I'm still in the camp that says many areas CAN reach the 70 benchmark. We shall see.

[psu1313]

I wouldn't say i'm in the camp that many places reach 70 but I believe that DC on south probably hits 70 with Hburg, Philly and a lot of PA in the mid-to-upper 60's. I just believe there will be too much radiational cooling at night to get a lot of folks in the mid-atlantic/northeast to 70.

[albanyweather]

Maybe JD or another mod can tweak the date.

If you create the thread you can change the dates. You can edit your original post along with the titles.

[Undertakerson]

If you create the thread you can change the dates. You can edit your original post along with the titles.

Thanks - I didn't realize that, but I see the date's already been adjusted which is good. I still think the 850's soar into NYS during this time period.

Look at that flow - straight out of the Lone Star State (via the Euro)



And GFS



Didn't post the CMC b/c it tends to overmodel cool/cold air - so I disregard it, but it is not too dis-similar

Link to Ewall for all model depictions.

Might as well at CTP disco (in part)

BUT BY LATE WEEKEND REGION
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND RETURN FLOW KEEPS TEMPS MILDER MON AND TUE
MORNS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

OT - Now - mods may need to reopen the thread for mid-month as we return to the "meat locker" and several bundles try to make a snowy solution out of either a Miller B(hr 276 of GFS) ~ 15th and a vigorous clipper? ~19th both while the 850 are "down souf"!



This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Nov 3 2011, 03:04 PM

[TheMaineMan]

Even up here we could see low 60s on Monday and Tuesday, with lows staying well above freezing in the 40-degree range.

[albanyweather]

Thanks - I didn't realize that, but I see the date's already been adjusted which is good. I still think the 850's soar into NYS during this time period.

Look at that flow - straight out of the Lone Star State (via the Euro)



And GFS



Didn't post the CMC b/c it tends to overmodel cool/cold air - so I disregard it, but it is not too dis-similar






OT - Now - mods may need to reopen the thread for mid-month as we return to the "meat locker" and several bundles try to make a snowy solution out of either a Miller B(hr 276 of GFS) ~ 15th and a vigorous clipper? ~19th both while the 850 are "down souf"!

Looks to stay in the 60s here. Which is nice golf weather! I love above normal temps this time of year

[Lady Luck]

HERE IT IS:

1. November 6th to November 10th. A warm-up with sunshine and a High Pressure in control

2. November 10th (Thur) to November 12th (Saturday) Mild-Wet-Damp on Thursday, spotty thunderstorms potentially on Thursday/Friday, with the best chance for sunshine on Saturday (when the cold air begins to move in aloft).

3. Sunday November 13th, 2011. Second cold front and a Surface High Pressure with dry and seasonal air will move in.

4. November 20th, 2011. --Nor'Easter Potential


5. January 10th, 2012--First Potential East Coast Winter Storm. La Nina and MJO activity in the Pacific aiding the Pineapple Express and the Gulf of Mexico development. I think there will be enough cold air in place in January through March, but in December and November the very cold air will just not be around--it will be relatively mild and moist with dry/pleasant days mixed in there as well. This should not be a surprise with La Nina conditions in place.

Having an October snowstorm so far south is just a crazy combination that probably occurs once a century. I am still looking to find out how we managed to get so cold to support snow, not to mention some areas did not even see their first real freeze until shortly after the event. I still remember the 80s we had in early October.




That's all there is. .

[albanyweather]

HERE IT IS:

1. November 6th to November 10th. A warm-up with sunshine and a High Pressure in control

2. November 10th (Thur) to November 12th (Saturday) Mild-Wet-Damp on Thursday, spotty thunderstorms potentially on Thursday/Friday, with the best chance for sunshine on Saturday (when the cold air begins to move in aloft).

3. Sunday November 13th, 2011. Second cold front and a Surface High Pressure with dry and seasonal air will move in.

4. November 20th, 2011. --Nor'Easter Potential
5. January 10th, 2012--First Potential East Coast Winter Storm. La Nina and MJO activity in the Pacific aiding the Pineapple Express and the Gulf of Mexico development. I think there will be enough cold air in place in January through March, but in December and November the very cold air will just not be around--it will be relatively mild and moist with dry/pleasant days mixed in there as well. This should not be a surprise with La Nina conditions in place.

Having an October snowstorm so far south is just a crazy combination that probably occurs once a century. I am still looking to find out how we managed to get so cold to support snow, not to mention some areas did not even see their first real freeze until shortly after the event. I still remember the 80s we had in early October.
That's all there is. .

I know you are talking about the east coast but where exactly? I think my area will be a lot different with at least 10-20" of snow in December. Dry days between storms is a given in La Nina or not.

We should move to the long range thread...

This post has been edited by albanyweather: Nov 3 2011, 11:15 PM

[Undertakerson]

AFDCTP

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --LARGE ANTICYCLONE WILL DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE WILL DRY OUT THE AIR AND CREATE A LARGE INVERSION. THE TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE MIGHTILY OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT RISE ONLY SLOWLY.
MIXING WILL BE VERY SHALLOW WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4 KFT OF MIXING
DEPENDING ON THE LOCAL ELEVATION. THUS...WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND
50F SAT AND ONLY ADD 3-5F TO THOSE ON SUNDAY. BUT THIS WILL GET US
CLOSE TO NORMALS. FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS EACH
MORNING...BUT THE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO FIND MOISTURE. MINS WILL BE ABOUT 20-25F
LOWER THAN RIVER WATER TEMPS THOUGH. IT MAY STILL BE DIFFICULT TO
REACH FULL/8H TEMP POTENTIAL ON MON AND TUES BUT IT WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SRLY WIND AS THE SFC HIGH
AXIS MOVES JUST A LITTLE S/E.

If my notion of any 70's is defeated, it would be, as I've admitted from the start, because of less than ideal HP location off the seaboard. First, this weekends, BDCF - again from CPT airport wx (same link as above):

A BAND OF IFR TO LOWER END MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SINKING SWD THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNG

GFS looks to cool the situation down a bit on its 0z run. I believe that solution is incorrect mostly due to that models history at this time range. The Euro, by contrast really makes things look pretty mild with the HP just off the NJ coast by day 3 (7th)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0..../ecmwfloop.html

[Undertakerson]

I see that NWS and many other forecasters are not liking my notion of widespread readings approaching the 70 mark.

No matter, I'm sticking to my guns as especially around the 8-0th (original time frame I created for this thread) are still looking good for significant warming even up into New England (perhaps more so along the immed coast)

Working against this is the aforementioned less than ideal placement of the Atl basin HP as well as the clear and cooler evening temps and ever decreasing sun angle. Yet, I think if there's just enough moisture to create a cloud deck for the evenign of either the 7th or 8th, it may be enough to keep overnight temperatures up and allow that sun angle and southwest flow to help regions S of 40N make the grade.

Areas north of 40N still looking OK for the same warmup - especially CPA which often share the same basic climo of Balt/DC corridor, via the I-83 plain and they're calling for 67 on the 8th-9th.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?C...76.6106&e=1

Of course from I-80 north, the prob of anywhere near 70 diminishes by the second ( metes and bounds type, not the clock type)

Overall though - enjoy the indian summer conditions. If you find a nice spot, out of any breeze and directly affected by a specific sun angle - take full advantage, put it in a jar, and save it for a colder.

My only decision will be to get the boat out on the water or the motorcycle on the backroads for one last peep of foliage before that, too, disappears.

[NYCSuburbs]

I see that NWS and many other forecasters are not liking my notion of widespread readings approaching the 70 mark.

No matter, I'm sticking to my guns as especially around the 8-0th (original time frame I created for this thread) are still looking good for significant warming even up into New England (perhaps more so along the immed coast)

Working against this is the aforementioned less than ideal placement of the Atl basin HP as well as the clear and cooler evening temps and ever decreasing sun angle. Yet, I think if there's just enough moisture to create a cloud deck for the evenign of either the 7th or 8th, it may be enough to keep overnight temperatures up and allow that sun angle and southwest flow to help regions S of 40N make the grade.

Areas north of 40N still looking OK for the same warmup - especially CPA which often share the same basic climo of Balt/DC corridor, via the I-83 plain and they're calling for 67 on the 8th-9th.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?C...76.6106&e=1

Of course from I-80 north, the prob of anywhere near 70 diminishes by the second ( metes and bounds type, not the clock type)

Overall though - enjoy the indian summer conditions. If you find a nice spot, out of any breeze and directly affected by a specific sun angle - take full advantage, put it in a jar, and save it for a colder.

My only decision will be to get the boat out on the water or the motorcycle on the backroads for one last peep of foliage before that, too, disappears.

I can also see 70s verifying, but not extending too far north. With the model bias to underestimate intensity of warm spells as well as surface temps, I can see 70s verifying up to southern PA and central NJ, possibly up to Newark in NE NJ or a few parts of central PA, but places further north should stay in the 60s, especially with the less than ideal high pressure location. Even places that do pass the 70 degree mark shouldn't get well above it with H85 temps only peaking between 10-12c, and the most I can see out of this is mid 70s in parts of VA.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Nov 5 2011, 08:12 AM

[Undertakerson]

I can also see 70s verifying, but not extending too far north. With the model bias to underestimate intensity of warm spells as well as surface temps, I can see 70s verifying up to southern PA and central NJ, possibly up to Newark in NE NJ or a few parts of central PA, but places further north should stay in the 60s, especially with the less than ideal high pressure location. Even places that do pass the 70 degree mark shouldn't get well above it with H85 temps only peaking between 10-12c, and the most I can see out of this is mid 70s in parts of VA.

Pretty much what I'm thinking as well.

[NorEaster07]

NAO Tanking but PNA stil going negatively strong.

[NorEaster07]

A reminder...Surface temps with a negative PNA..



This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Nov 5 2011, 09:22 AM

[NYCSuburbs]

NAO Tanking but PNA stil going negatively strong.

The strongly -PNA and +NAO are helping this warm spell end up the way it will early-mid next week. For the longer range, even though there's no +PNA shown, what I'm focusing on is the trend towards a neutral PNA, which combined with a -NAO, should prevent this warm pattern from lasting much longer than the middle of November.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Nov 5 2011, 09:30 AM