November 4-? West (CA) Unsettled Pattern, Reality: Short Range [0-3 days] Options

[alxz310]

As we enter November, the recent dry streak in California comes to an end with at least two cold low pressure systems set to dive down into the state. Showers are currently affecting Central CA set to move down into the southern part of the state through the overnight and early morning hours. Cold air aloft behind the front (-28C to -30C 500mb temps) will also allow for a chance of thunderstorm.

Over the weekend, there is another chance of some precipitation with a similar system diving down into the region. Later on, yet another, much stronger and wetter storm might possibly move into the area

This post has been edited by alxz310: Nov 3 2011, 11:40 PM

[alxz310]

00Z GFS coming in HOT with the storm next week. Maps out to HR183 right now seem to indicate rainfall totals possibly exceeding 2" in areas. I like what i am seeing in these maps! Maybe this winter will end up above average again?

Edit: Wow, in fact the 00Z just keep dropping these lows out of Canada/Alaska non-stop throughout the run

This post has been edited by alxz310: Nov 3 2011, 11:55 PM

[Jet Developer]

Wow, that marine layer deepened crazily. Most of the day had no low clouds. When I left work, there were some low clouds to the southwest, but it was still mostly clear. Now it shows the marine layer all the way to the mountains on the fog imagery and trying to get into Antelope Valley. Looks like the inversion could be wiped out by the morning.

[Beck]

Cloudy here right now but not foggy. Looking at a high of 60F tomorrow and an 80% chance of showers; up to 0.25" for my area.

[FrostFuzz]

It looks like the front is moving into the area. Getting some rain atm.

[Jet Developer]

Rain is coming down quite heavily now. Very dark this morning and latest sunrise of the year is tomorrow.

[alxz310]

Well, rainfall amounts from the front were pretty boring. 0.03" here in Santa Monica and even less in most other areas around me. Looks like more moderate showers should move in soon though

[Artisane]

The front has passed, but the core of the low is still northwest of us. There was a mention of the north facing foothills getting continual showers later to, but we'll have to see if that happens.

Snow was falling as low at 3500ft this morning, but only sticking around 4500ft. Its definately a winter day up here, and feels very much like January.

There was enough of a decent shower this morning that made me rethink postponing getting new tires until the spring. Oh, well.. I got 45k miles out of these ones.

[FrostFuzz]

Some of these showers are heavy. This is going to add up.

Edit: The nearest station just jumped from .05" to .17" in no more than 5 minutes. Still only .04" at NWS right now though.

This post has been edited by FrostFuzz: Nov 4 2011, 11:01 AM

[Artisane]

From the NWS Oxnard Statemet.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/get...LOX&wfo=LOX

GIVEN THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...SNOW LEVELS WILL
TUMBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SNOW LEVELS
TO FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET...THEN DOWN AS LOW AS 3500 FEET TONIGHT.
SO...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS. WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS CRANKING UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
GRAPEVINE AREA. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY THIS MORNING...
WITH THE FOCUS CENTERED ON THE GRAPEVINE.

[ChrisL]

The rain was coming down pretty hard here in Corona. I was barely hitting 30mph on the 91fwy right before the 71.

[Artisane]

The rain was coming down pretty hard here in Corona. I was barely hitting 30mph on the 91fwy right before the 71.

30mph on the 91? I consider that a win!

[Beck]

Scattered showers this morning, but only 0.11" has fallen in Temecula, and only 0.05" at my house. Pretty nice though.

[FrostFuzz]

30mph on the 91? I consider that a win!

This is true

Woah it just started coming down like crazy! I never expected anything like this!

This post has been edited by FrostFuzz: Nov 4 2011, 11:24 AM

[Artisane]

This is true

Woah it just started coming down like crazy! I never expected anything like this!

Wait until that low swings in. There's a lot of cold air aloft that should increase tshort chances.

[FrostFuzz]

Wait until that low swings in. There's a lot of cold air aloft that should increase tshort chances.

This is where I had expected most of the rainfall to come from. And on that note, from the latest forecast discussion from NWS San Diego...

...THEN MORE SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS AND
DROP FUNNEL CLOUDS OR WATERSPOUTS NEAR THE COAST. THE RAINFALL WILL
BE MORE SPOTTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER AND IT APPEARS
MOST OF OUR STORM TOTALS WILL HAPPEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...

This post has been edited by FrostFuzz: Nov 4 2011, 11:40 AM

[FrostFuzz]

Rain is tapering off. Also there have been some fair winds.

[Artisane]

Weather conditions are turning bad quickly up here. We've had a steady 50F with light winds and sunny skies all morning, but its getting very grey, very quickly and the temps are dropping, just in the last 30 minutes.

You can see the snow falling to 4000ft before it melts to rain, which is heading this way. We're 10F below the normal winter highs. I really wish I had a camera good enough to catch the view, its just so awesome seeing all the snow clouds.

Edit: Frost Advisory out for our area with temps mid to upper 20s possible.

This post has been edited by Artisane: Nov 4 2011, 04:42 PM

[FrostFuzz]

It is unusually chilly here as well. It is a brisk 50F outside. There is a good chance the high for today will be midnight this morning, when it was still 58F.

[Mike1014]

I love this late October/Early November transitory weather. On Halloween, it was 94 degrees here in the desert. Yesterday morning, I walk outside to get the newspaper and it was 38 degrees! Hello winter!

Still waiting for the rain here...don't know if we'll get much if anything. It was sprinkling for about 5 minutes last hour, but nothing much other than that. I wonder to myself if this could be sign of another cool and abnormally wet rainy season despite the moderate/strong La Nina being forecast this winter.