Tropical Storm Sean, 7AM EST: TS 65MPH - 990MB - NNE @ 8MPH Options

[Ron in Miami]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201111061223
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2011, DB, O, 2011110606, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982011
AL, 98, 2011110506, , BEST, 0, 330N, 738W, 45, 1005, EX, 34, NEQ, 450, 100, 200, 450,
AL, 98, 2011110512, , BEST, 0, 312N, 725W, 45, 1005, EX, 34, NEQ, 425, 0, 175, 425,
AL, 98, 2011110518, , BEST, 0, 298N, 711W, 45, 1005, EX, 34, NEQ, 400, 0, 175, 400,
AL, 98, 2011110600, , BEST, 0, 287N, 698W, 45, 1005, EX, 34, NEQ, 400, 0, 160, 400, 0, 0, 160, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011110606, , BEST, 0, 284N, 687W, 45, 1005, EX, 34, NEQ, 400, 0, 160, 400, 1010, 500, 160, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 98, 2011110612, , BEST, 0, 283N, 684W, 45, 1005, EX, 34, NEQ, 400, 0, 0, 400, 1012, 300, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE
WINDS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...THE LOW
COULD GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES
OVER WARMER WATER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY SOUTHWARD.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS GALE AREA CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1...AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN



This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Nov 6 2011, 10:31 AM

[jdrenken]

Thanks Ron! I saw it had a 10% chance, but didn't even think to check the ATCF with it being so low.

[Ron in Miami]

Thanks Ron! I saw it had a 10% chance, but didn't even think to check the ATCF with it being so low.

Just might see a subtropical system outta this one, the visible sat shows a pretty good low spinning out there! And even if it doesn't develop, the SE coastline could get some strong easterly wind and surf from it. It's quite windy in Miami right now as it is!

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Nov 6 2011, 10:39 AM

[jdrenken]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER AN AREA
EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND THE LOW COULD ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY AND NORTHWESTWARD
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS GALE AREA CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1...AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[jdrenken]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST MON NOV 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER AN
AREA EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND THE LOW COULD ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY AND NORTHWESTWARD
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS GALE AREA CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1...AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Snow____]

If it does become a sub-tropical cyclone, does it get a name.

[NYCSuburbs]

If it does become a sub-tropical cyclone, does it get a name.

Yes, subtropical cyclones do get names. This storm doesn't have a lot of time to live though, as by Thursday it should move north as it is absorbed by a strong trough near the East Coast.

[jdrenken]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 435 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER AN AREA
EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CENTER. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL
HAS SOME FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR THIS LOW TO GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD TONIGHT AND MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS GALE AREA
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NOAA NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1...AND UNDER WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[jdrenken]

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM SEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
400 AM EST TUE NOV 08 2011

CORRECTED MOTION IN SUMMARY SECTION

...NEW SUBTROPICAL STORM DEVELOPS MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 69.4W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST. THE STORM IS
NEARLY STATIONARY...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. A SLOW
WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 380 MILES...610 KM...PRIMARILY
WEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[jdrenken]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
200 PM AST TUE NOV 08 2011

...SEAN TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 69.5W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA
WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST. SEAN HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH LIKELY ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 380 MILES...610
KM...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATE
THURSDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SEAN ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[greenappleman7]

Should a thread on 99L in the Mediterranean be posted in Current Tropical Season Weather or in International? ATCF labelled it 99L under the Atlantic Basin...

[jdrenken]

Should a thread on 99L in the Mediterranean be posted in Current Tropical Season Weather or in International? ATCF labelled it 99L under the Atlantic Basin...

Well...one things for sure...it doesn't belong in Tropical Storm Sean.

Please reference this sticky for your answer.

[jdrenken]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
800 PM AST TUE NOV 08 2011

...SEAN STALLS...EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 69.8W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA
WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST. SEAN HAS
MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT A SLOW WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 265 MILES...425
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATE
THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SEAN ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE
SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[jdrenken]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
1000 AM EST WED NOV 09 2011

...SEAN A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 70.5W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA
WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SEAN IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST
OF BERMUDA ON FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH WEAKENING LIKELY ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ON
BERMUDA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SEAN ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM EST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[jdrenken]

Talk about threading the needle...

TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
1000 AM EST WED NOV 09 2011

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
IN A BROKEN RING AROUND THE CENTER OF SEAN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
THAT AN EYE FEATURE IS FORMING. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 45/55 KT...AND A BLEND OF THESE DATA
GIVES AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 50 KT. SEAN HAS ABOUT 24 TO 36
HOURS OF RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO
FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT HIGHER...AND
THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE LAST ONE...
BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE IF A CENTRAL CORE BECOMES
WELL ESTABLISHED.

THE GRADUAL POLEWARD TURN OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 320/3. SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY...STEERING SEAN
ON A PATH TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST BY EARLY TOMORROW.
AS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES APPROACHES THE
STORM...AN INCREASE IN MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD...HOWEVER...ON HOW FAR SEAN MOVES FROM
BERMUDA. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE REST
OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A CLOSER TRACK TO BERMUDA...SO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL STAY NEAR THOSE HISTORICALLY RELIABLE MODELS. MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BEING ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONT
BETWEEN DAY 3 AND DAY 4...AND THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW
THIS SCENARIO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 27.9N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 28.4N 70.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 29.6N 70.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 31.5N 68.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 33.8N 65.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 41.0N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[jdrenken]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EST TUE 08 NOVEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z NOVEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-161

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX SEAN AT
10/1800Z NEAR 31.3N 69.0W

[jdrenken]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
400 PM EST WED NOV 09 2011

...SEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 70.5W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA
WEATHER SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SEAN IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA ON FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...AND SEAN
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ON
BERMUDA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SEAN ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA...CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM EST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[jdrenken]

TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
400 PM EST WED NOV 09 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SEAN IS STRENGTHENING. THE CLOUD
PATTERN CONSISTS OF A LARGE COILED BAND...WHICH APPEARS TO BE
WRAPPING UP INTO A BANDING EYE FEATURE. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT
FROM BOTH TAFB/SAB...SO THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTRAL CORE AND ABOUT A DAY OF LIGHT SHEAR
CONDITIONS REMAINING...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SEEMS PROBABLE. IT
IS A LITTLE PUZZLING WHY NONE OF THE MODELS MAKE THIS A HURRICANE...
ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY HAD A LOW BIAS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN THE DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE...THE NEW NHC
FORECAST SHOWS SEAN REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH...WHICH IS A BIT
HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.

THE STORM HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 5 KT...A LITTLE
FASTER THAN EARLIER. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME
ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FEELS THE
INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD...THE GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SEAN MOVING A FAIR DISTANCE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF BERMUDA. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS CAME IN VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEW
NHC TRACK. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SEAN BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL IN TWO DAYS...AND THEN BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY DAY 3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 28.7N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 29.4N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 30.6N 69.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 32.7N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 35.8N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[jdrenken]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
700 PM EST WED NOV 09 2011

...SEAN MOVING NORTHWARD...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
BERMUDA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 70.5W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA
WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SEAN IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA ON FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND SEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ON
BERMUDA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SEAN ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA...CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[jdrenken]

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