 Nov. 20-22 Plains/MW/GL/OV Rain/Snow Storm, Cogitation: Long Range [8-14 Days Out] FORECAST |
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 Nov 10 2011, 06:42 PM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 4,409 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413  |
GFS has showed a storm during this period last few updates... a possible Tennessee/Ohio Valley track to keep aware of.
~ Still long ways to go and may have to change time periods because the GFS is having troubles of when this system hits. 18z GFS update today still shows the same track but more intensified and the low placement more eastern. Today    Yesterday   
This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Nov 13 2011, 11:01 AM |
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Nov 10 2011, 07:12 PM
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#2
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,758 Joined: 16-November 08 From: Cincinnati, OH Member No.: 16,172 |
So far away.
-------------------- Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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Nov 10 2011, 07:29 PM
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,409 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413 |
QUOTE(Snow____ @ Nov 10 2011, 07:12 PM)  So far away. Yes it is but just something to track while we wait for the real stuff... kinda getting bored already  Also a possible transition from the current storm tracks. This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Nov 10 2011, 07:30 PM |
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Nov 10 2011, 11:06 PM
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#4
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 856 Joined: 17-October 10 From: St. Louis, MO Member No.: 24,113 |
QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Nov 10 2011, 08:29 PM) Yes it is but just something to track while we wait for the real stuff... kinda getting bored already Also a possible transition from the current storm tracks. Thanks for posting this Juniorr. Will be nice to keep an eye on this. |
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Nov 11 2011, 12:08 PM
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#5
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 181 Joined: 23-July 10 From: Appleton, wi Member No.: 23,225 |
QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Nov 10 2011, 08:29 PM) Yes it is but just something to track while we wait for the real stuff... kinda getting bored already Also a possible transition from the current storm tracks. i like where the storm track is setting up.leave it be
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Nov 11 2011, 04:33 PM
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#6
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 85 Joined: 11-September 11 From: RIC, Virginia Member No.: 26,019 |
... This is the only long-range thread I found today.... I'm wondering if someone will start a new thread for the warm-up that looks like it'll continue (yes!!
 ) for at least here in the Mid-Atlantic (VA). I know we're not listed on this thread here, except of course, if the cold air dumps over you guys in the midwest, then our forecast seems to support that! For now we're scheduled for warm temps all the way through the 25th at least (highs in the 60-70s, lows in 40-50s).
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Nov 12 2011, 01:19 AM
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#7
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 3,101 Joined: 10-June 07 From: Columbia, Missouri Member No.: 6,288 |
QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Nov 10 2011, 08:29 PM) Yes it is but just something to track while we wait for the real stuff... kinda getting bored already Also a possible transition from the current storm tracks. This will be the first truly arctic air mass getting dislodged this season, you can see the air mass organizing in alaska on all of the major models at h96. As far as storm track goes its a long long way away from getting a good idea of where its going, but definitely something to watch over the next week.
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-------------------- All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.
OHV / MIDWEST needs its own dedicated professional accuweather blogger ... |
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Nov 12 2011, 04:10 AM
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#8
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 116 Joined: 7-May 10 From: west central INDIANA Member No.: 22,730 |
QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Nov 12 2011, 01:19 AM) This will be the first truly arctic air mass getting dislodged this season, you can see the air mass organizing in alaska on all of the major models at h96. As far as storm track goes its a long long way away from getting a good idea of where its going, but definitely something to watch over the next week. What exactly am i supposed to look at to see arctic air mass and watch it build? I know some things but this is beyond my knowledge.... -------------------- READY FOR WINTER and SNOWSNOWSNOW
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Nov 12 2011, 09:49 AM
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,409 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413 |
Models still a bit flip floppy... The next few updates I'll adjust the dates...
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Nov 12 2011, 10:07 AM
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#10
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 3,101 Joined: 10-June 07 From: Columbia, Missouri Member No.: 6,288 |
QUOTE(andersonIN @ Nov 12 2011, 05:10 AM) What exactly am i supposed to look at to see arctic air mass and watch it build? I know some things but this is beyond my knowledge.... mainly just look at the bottom right image in each 4-panel plot. if you look really closely you will see a whole bunch of dotted lines, these are isotherms (lines of constant temperature), the significant ones (ie 30,20,10,0,-10,-20,-30) are all bolded and colored differently. If you look in Alaska you will see a large area of -20 *C building up associated with a strong area of low pressure off the coast of Alaska (you can see surface pressure well in the top right image of each plot). This is the storm that will move south over the next roughly 10-12 days, and then will finally start to affect the area in question. Where it goes and what it actually does, nobody knows yet. you can view all of these models at: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewall.html -------------------- All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.
OHV / MIDWEST needs its own dedicated professional accuweather blogger ... |
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Nov 12 2011, 01:19 PM
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#11
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 125 Joined: 5-December 09 From: St. Louis, MO Member No.: 20,008 |
Looks like the potential of a winter storm here for the midwest.. Lets wait and see how deep this cold air makes it.
-------------------- St. Louis, MO
PREDICTIONS As always, predictions subject to change until first blood. |
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Nov 12 2011, 03:19 PM
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 3,101 Joined: 10-June 07 From: Columbia, Missouri Member No.: 6,288 |
QUOTE(Jon T. @ Nov 12 2011, 02:19 PM) Looks like the potential of a winter storm here for the midwest.. Lets wait and see how deep this cold air makes it. My gut tells me the snow will be north of Missouri so dont get your hopes up, its still early November. -------------------- All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.
OHV / MIDWEST needs its own dedicated professional accuweather blogger ... |
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Nov 12 2011, 04:04 PM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,409 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413 |
QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Nov 12 2011, 03:19 PM) My gut tells me the snow will be north of Missouri so dont get your hopes up, its still early November. Never know. If the storm is a more of a eastern "lake cutter" or just a Ohio/Tennessee valley tracker then this could bring snow to lower midwest. Still too early. |
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Nov 12 2011, 07:20 PM
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#14
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 266 Joined: 21-September 11 From: Wauwatosa, WI Member No.: 26,043 |
QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Nov 12 2011, 03:04 PM) Never know. If the storm is a more of a eastern "lake cutter" or just a Ohio/Tennessee valley tracker then this could bring snow to lower midwest. Still too early. What do you think about the prospects for the Southern Great Lakes? Right now it looks like the GFS has been suggesting at least some back end snow with this system, but considering it is still 9 or 10 days out a lot could change. |
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Nov 12 2011, 08:11 PM
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,409 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413 |
QUOTE(Wild Wisconsin Weather @ Nov 12 2011, 07:20 PM) What do you think about the prospects for the Southern Great Lakes? Right now it looks like the GFS has been suggesting at least some back end snow with this system, but considering it is still 9 or 10 days out a lot could change. Really not sure but yea the models are showing back end snow and in a few days I bet you we will have a better understanding of what to come
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 Nov 12 2011, 08:43 PM
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#16
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 116 Joined: 7-May 10 From: west central INDIANA Member No.: 22,730 |
QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Nov 12 2011, 10:07 AM) mainly just look at the bottom right image in each 4-panel plot. if you look really closely you will see a whole bunch of dotted lines, these are isotherms (lines of constant temperature), the significant ones (ie 30,20,10,0,-10,-20,-30) are all bolded and colored differently. If you look in Alaska you will see a large area of -20 *C building up associated with a strong area of low pressure off the coast of Alaska (you can see surface pressure well in the top right image of each plot). This is the storm that will move south over the next roughly 10-12 days, and then will finally start to affect the area in question. Where it goes and what it actually does, nobody knows yet. you can view all of these models at: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewall.html Thank you for this info weatherjunkie. Very appreciated! -------------------- READY FOR WINTER and SNOWSNOWSNOW
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Nov 12 2011, 11:22 PM
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 856 Joined: 17-October 10 From: St. Louis, MO Member No.: 24,113 |
QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Nov 12 2011, 05:04 PM) Never know. If the storm is a more of a eastern "lake cutter" or just a Ohio/Tennessee valley tracker then this could bring snow to lower midwest. Still too early. Agree. Too early to tell but still possible for the lower midwest to see some snow. |
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Nov 12 2011, 11:47 PM
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
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Nov 13 2011, 09:26 AM
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#19
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,426 Joined: 21-January 10 From: Paducah, Ky Member No.: 21,017 |
6z GFS...this might get interesting as we get closer!
  
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Nov 13 2011, 11:35 AM
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#20
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,461 Joined: 7-December 10 From: Chicago Member No.: 24,567 |
QUOTE(grace @ Nov 13 2011, 10:26 AM) 6z GFS...this might get interesting as we get closer! Liking the last image 
-------------------- My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com
2013 Severe Weather Season Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4 Slight Risk Days: 3 Moderate Risk Days: 0 High Risk Days: 0 Annual Snowfall 2012-2013: 37.5'' QUOTE When looking at the models: Trends, trends, trends! |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 20th May 2013 - 11:09 AM |