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> Nov. 20-22 Plains/MW/GL/OV Rain/Snow Storm, Cogitation: Long Range [8-14 Days Out] FORECAST
Juniorrr
post Nov 10 2011, 06:42 PM
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GFS has showed a storm during this period last few updates... a possible Tennessee/Ohio Valley track to keep aware of.

~ Still long ways to go and may have to change time periods because the GFS is having troubles of when this system hits.

18z GFS update today still shows the same track but more intensified and the low placement more eastern.


Today





Yesterday





This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Nov 13 2011, 11:01 AM


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Snow____
post Nov 10 2011, 07:12 PM
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So far away.


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Juniorrr
post Nov 10 2011, 07:29 PM
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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Nov 10 2011, 07:12 PM) *
So far away.

Yes it is but just something to track while we wait for the real stuff... kinda getting bored already tongue.gif

Also a possible transition from the current storm tracks.

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Nov 10 2011, 07:30 PM


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xigris14
post Nov 10 2011, 11:06 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Nov 10 2011, 08:29 PM) *
Yes it is but just something to track while we wait for the real stuff... kinda getting bored already tongue.gif

Also a possible transition from the current storm tracks.


Thanks for posting this Juniorr. Will be nice to keep an eye on this.
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wiscsno
post Nov 11 2011, 12:08 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Nov 10 2011, 08:29 PM) *
Yes it is but just something to track while we wait for the real stuff... kinda getting bored already tongue.gif

Also a possible transition from the current storm tracks.

i like where the storm track is setting up.leave it be tongue.gif
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KSpring1
post Nov 11 2011, 04:33 PM
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... This is the only long-range thread I found today.... I'm wondering if someone will start a new thread for the warm-up that looks like it'll continue (yes!! smile.gif) for at least here in the Mid-Atlantic (VA). I know we're not listed on this thread here, except of course, if the cold air dumps over you guys in the midwest, then our forecast seems to support that! For now we're scheduled for warm temps all the way through the 25th at least (highs in the 60-70s, lows in 40-50s).
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StL weatherjunki...
post Nov 12 2011, 01:19 AM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Nov 10 2011, 08:29 PM) *
Yes it is but just something to track while we wait for the real stuff... kinda getting bored already tongue.gif

Also a possible transition from the current storm tracks.

This will be the first truly arctic air mass getting dislodged this season, you can see the air mass organizing in alaska on all of the major models at h96. As far as storm track goes its a long long way away from getting a good idea of where its going, but definitely something to watch over the next week.
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andersonIN
post Nov 12 2011, 04:10 AM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Nov 12 2011, 01:19 AM) *
This will be the first truly arctic air mass getting dislodged this season, you can see the air mass organizing in alaska on all of the major models at h96. As far as storm track goes its a long long way away from getting a good idea of where its going, but definitely something to watch over the next week.

What exactly am i supposed to look at to see arctic air mass and watch it build? I know some things but this is beyond my knowledge....


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Juniorrr
post Nov 12 2011, 09:49 AM
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Models still a bit flip floppy... The next few updates I'll adjust the dates...


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StL weatherjunki...
post Nov 12 2011, 10:07 AM
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QUOTE(andersonIN @ Nov 12 2011, 05:10 AM) *
What exactly am i supposed to look at to see arctic air mass and watch it build? I know some things but this is beyond my knowledge....

mainly just look at the bottom right image in each 4-panel plot. if you look really closely you will see a whole bunch of dotted lines, these are isotherms (lines of constant temperature), the significant ones (ie 30,20,10,0,-10,-20,-30) are all bolded and colored differently. If you look in Alaska you will see a large area of -20 *C building up associated with a strong area of low pressure off the coast of Alaska (you can see surface pressure well in the top right image of each plot). This is the storm that will move south over the next roughly 10-12 days, and then will finally start to affect the area in question. Where it goes and what it actually does, nobody knows yet.

you can view all of these models at:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewall.html


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Jon T.
post Nov 12 2011, 01:19 PM
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Looks like the potential of a winter storm here for the midwest.. Lets wait and see how deep this cold air makes it.


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StL weatherjunki...
post Nov 12 2011, 03:19 PM
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QUOTE(Jon T. @ Nov 12 2011, 02:19 PM) *
Looks like the potential of a winter storm here for the midwest.. Lets wait and see how deep this cold air makes it.

My gut tells me the snow will be north of Missouri so dont get your hopes up, its still early November.


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Juniorrr
post Nov 12 2011, 04:04 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Nov 12 2011, 03:19 PM) *
My gut tells me the snow will be north of Missouri so dont get your hopes up, its still early November.

Never know. If the storm is a more of a eastern "lake cutter" or just a Ohio/Tennessee valley tracker then this could bring snow to lower midwest. Still too early.


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Wild Wisconsin W...
post Nov 12 2011, 07:20 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Nov 12 2011, 03:04 PM) *
Never know. If the storm is a more of a eastern "lake cutter" or just a Ohio/Tennessee valley tracker then this could bring snow to lower midwest. Still too early.


What do you think about the prospects for the Southern Great Lakes? Right now it looks like the GFS has been suggesting at least some back end snow with this system, but considering it is still 9 or 10 days out a lot could change.
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Juniorrr
post Nov 12 2011, 08:11 PM
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QUOTE(Wild Wisconsin Weather @ Nov 12 2011, 07:20 PM) *
What do you think about the prospects for the Southern Great Lakes? Right now it looks like the GFS has been suggesting at least some back end snow with this system, but considering it is still 9 or 10 days out a lot could change.

Really not sure but yea the models are showing back end snow and in a few days I bet you we will have a better understanding of what to come tongue.gif


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andersonIN
post Nov 12 2011, 08:43 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Nov 12 2011, 10:07 AM) *
mainly just look at the bottom right image in each 4-panel plot. if you look really closely you will see a whole bunch of dotted lines, these are isotherms (lines of constant temperature), the significant ones (ie 30,20,10,0,-10,-20,-30) are all bolded and colored differently. If you look in Alaska you will see a large area of -20 *C building up associated with a strong area of low pressure off the coast of Alaska (you can see surface pressure well in the top right image of each plot). This is the storm that will move south over the next roughly 10-12 days, and then will finally start to affect the area in question. Where it goes and what it actually does, nobody knows yet.

you can view all of these models at:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewall.html

Thank you for this info weatherjunkie. Very appreciated!


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xigris14
post Nov 12 2011, 11:22 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Nov 12 2011, 05:04 PM) *
Never know. If the storm is a more of a eastern "lake cutter" or just a Ohio/Tennessee valley tracker then this could bring snow to lower midwest. Still too early.


Agree. Too early to tell but still possible for the lower midwest to see some snow.
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jdrenken
post Nov 12 2011, 11:47 PM
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It has potential...but obviously things aren't matching up on this.


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grace
post Nov 13 2011, 09:26 AM
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6z GFS...this might get interesting as we get closer!





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The Snowman
post Nov 13 2011, 11:35 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 13 2011, 10:26 AM) *
6z GFS...this might get interesting as we get closer!






Liking the last image laugh.gif


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