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> Nov 21-24 MidAtl/NE Storm, Please Post In OBS Thread
NorEaster07
post Nov 12 2011, 02:25 PM
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Well, since it's been relaxed weather past couple weeks I figure this might be something to look forward to.

Still waay out there but GFS has been consistant on almost every run showing a storm in this time frame.

This was GFS Hour 300
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This was from the 6z today..Hours 240 & 252
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This is the latest from the 12z today hours 240 & 252
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MJO forecasted to be in strong Phase 0 for this time period...
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PNA looks to stay negative, NAO to go positive as of today.
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Both GFS and Euro show positive NAO also.
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Any other maps we can post for now until time gets closer?
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mppy
post Nov 12 2011, 04:52 PM
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Shhh this doesn't support the thinking we're in for a major torch the rest of the month wink.gif
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NYCSuburbs
post Nov 12 2011, 06:32 PM
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QUOTE(mppy @ Nov 12 2011, 04:52 PM) *
Shhh this doesn't support the thinking we're in for a major torch the rest of the month wink.gif

How does it not? A +NAO, solidly negative PNA, +AO, +EPO, and no change of the unfavorable pattern in the Pacific don't support an end to the mild pattern before the end of the month. Of course, it's not going to be an endless torch as there will be a few periods of transient cool/cold spells, but a lot of things would have to work out in order to see any decent snowstorm south of the northern Northeast, unless the small possibility that a storm ends up at the right timing with a cold air mass far south enough verifies.
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WEATHERFREAK
post Nov 12 2011, 10:29 PM
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the NAO/AO is forecasted to go negative around the Thanksgiving Day Weekend.


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jdrenken
post Nov 12 2011, 10:35 PM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFREAK @ Nov 12 2011, 09:29 PM) *
the NAO/AO is forecasted to go negative around the Thanksgiving Day Weekend.


Source this...not to mention that is after this thread.


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Undertakerson
post Nov 13 2011, 05:28 AM
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AS JD said, NAO not negative until after this event.

Attached Image

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/00zgfs.html

And the screaming PAC jet just keep knocking the PNA back to negative and coming across the US in a zonal flow that usually only adds warmth to the solution.

Like NYCS pointed out (about 3 seconds before I had a similar post to put up) -PNA and +NAO = eastern warmth. IIRC NYCS has also been calling for relative warmth right up to the final wknd of Nov.



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NorEaster07
post Nov 13 2011, 07:07 AM
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GFS 00z


Attached Image


GFS 06z Hours 240, 252, 264.... ohmy.gif 986 Low over West Virginia.. 967 Low over Maine. ohmy.gif
System starts in the south and heads NorthEast


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GFS 6z Hour 276 blink.gif 948mb low North of Maine


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We havent had over an inch of rain with a storm since September...this could break that streak.. And keep in mind..NYC is 1.27" away from being 2nd Wettest year on record and 14" away from being wettest ever since records began in 1869.

This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Nov 13 2011, 07:10 AM
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Windman45
post Nov 13 2011, 08:09 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Nov 13 2011, 07:07 AM) *
GFS 00z


Attached Image


GFS 06z Hours 240, 252, 264.... ohmy.gif 986 Low over West Virginia.. 967 Low over Maine. ohmy.gif
System starts in the south and heads NorthEast


Attached Image


GFS 6z Hour 276 blink.gif 948mb low North of Maine


Attached Image


We havent had over an inch of rain with a storm since September...this could break that streak.. And keep in mind..NYC is 1.27" away from being 2nd Wettest year on record and 14" away from being wettest ever since records began in 1869.

Is this the storm jb said would be like 1950?
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jdrenken
post Nov 13 2011, 09:37 AM
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QUOTE(Windman45 @ Nov 13 2011, 07:09 AM) *
Is this the storm jb said would be like 1950?


JB's connection was that within 3 weeks of the Alaskan storms of 1950/1974, there was a storm in the East.

So...yes, it could be..

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mulligan
post Nov 13 2011, 12:19 PM
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Is this the pattern changer? What happened with the storm of 1950?
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windman
post Nov 13 2011, 12:27 PM
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QUOTE(Windman45 @ Nov 13 2011, 08:09 AM) *
Is this the storm jb said would be like 1950?


Well now, this would definitely give us our first major wind event of the year! laugh.gif

Unfortunately, it is just one run, and the 12z has once again gone away from this idea.

Will be interesting to see if the 12z ECM picks up on something.

The 00z GGEM is also showing a rather large storm system, just a little bit faster than the 06z GFS...

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur....000&fixhh=1
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shane o mac
post Nov 13 2011, 04:08 PM
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QUOTE(windman @ Nov 13 2011, 01:27 PM) *
Well now, this would definitely give us our first major wind event of the year! laugh.gif

Unfortunately, it is just one run, and the 12z has once again gone away from this idea.

Will be interesting to see if the 12z ECM picks up on something.

The 00z GGEM is also showing a rather large storm system, just a little bit faster than the 06z GFS...

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur....000&fixhh=1



Since you have a awesome screen name which has wind in it tells me you like wind lol like i do something we need to watch
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Undertakerson
post Nov 14 2011, 04:35 AM
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0z GFS shows this event being a relatively weak storm that sidles to the coast via 40N. Enogh cold air to make a marginal snow event North of 40.


Attached Image


0z Euro just a small wrinkle - similar solution (and scary that its the same timing)

Attached Image


CMC really seems lost lately but makes a clean sweep with the other two in showing a mostly zonal flow across the NA continent.

All the suite shows storms being very transient. No downstream blocking, no amplification = very changeable weather.

Cold air stays up in Canada (and that doesn't even appear to be all that cold except for the NW Territories and up near the Artic Circle. Until that breaks, we have a winter on hold for any cold air.
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mulligan
post Nov 14 2011, 06:30 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 14 2011, 05:35 AM) *
0z GFS shows this event being a relatively weak storm that sidles to the coast via 40N. Enogh cold air to make a marginal snow event North of 40.


Attached Image


0z Euro just a small wrinkle - similar solution (and scary that its the same timing)

Attached Image


CMC really seems lost lately but makes a clean sweep with the other two in showing a mostly zonal flow across the NA continent.

All the suite shows storms being very transient. No downstream blocking, no amplification = very changeable weather.

Cold air stays up in Canada (and that doesn't even appear to be all that cold except for the NW Territories and up near the Artic Circle. Until that breaks, we have a winter on hold for any cold air.

Is this winter officioally a bust? I thught it was supposed to be brutal?

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NorEaster07
post Nov 14 2011, 06:54 AM
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00z GFS
Attached Image


06z is funky...and busy..Looks like after the initial storm going to Great Lakes, some gulf moisture continues to spread northwards and a low forms near the coast.

At hour 156 on the 20th it has this..
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Hour214 on the 23rd
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Hour 264 on the 25th
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Either way the pattern looks to get busy... No rain here since October 27th. And snow on the 29th. So its been over 2 weeks without precip.
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yankees
post Nov 14 2011, 06:55 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 14 2011, 04:35 AM) *
0z GFS shows this event being a relatively weak storm that sidles to the coast via 40N. Enogh cold air to make a marginal snow event North of 40.


Attached Image


0z Euro just a small wrinkle - similar solution (and scary that its the same timing)

Attached Image


CMC really seems lost lately but makes a clean sweep with the other two in showing a mostly zonal flow across the NA continent.

All the suite shows storms being very transient. No downstream blocking, no amplification = very changeable weather.

Cold air stays up in Canada (and that doesn't even appear to be all that cold except for the NW Territories and up near the Artic Circle. Until that breaks, we have a winter on hold for any cold air.

Well the pattern we are in favors overunning events. A zonal flow will alot of the time lead to a storm enetering and exiting at the same latitude so a storm like this would be a very plauisble storm for the pattern we are in. Also this type of pattern is not very difficult for the models so that may be why they are in agreement as there are not multiple energys they have to worry about. 06z GFS seems similar to the 0z run.

This post has been edited by yankees: Nov 14 2011, 06:56 AM


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NorEaster07
post Nov 14 2011, 06:57 AM
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Euro 0z agrees on a Low off the coast
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NorEaster07
post Nov 14 2011, 07:01 AM
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And the Euro 0z agrees on the big storm in Canada..Just a day earlier than the GFS.. So if this continues on the models I guess either we'll bundles all 3 systems into one thread or create seperate threads for each? I guess it would be easier for all of us to discuss all of them in one spot?


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This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Nov 14 2011, 07:02 AM
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jdrenken
post Nov 14 2011, 07:14 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Nov 14 2011, 06:01 AM) *
And the Euro 0z agrees on the big storm in Canada..Just a day earlier than the GFS.. So if this continues on the models I guess either we'll bundles all 3 systems into one thread or create seperate threads for each? I guess it would be easier for all of us to discuss all of them in one spot?


Attached Image


The 1 Topic per Storm Guideline comes to play. We are going thru the same "issues" with multiple systems in the Plains/MW/OV/GL.

It can be difficult for some to keep track of systems when they just keep coming, but when we do separate the systems it helps in the long run as all systems have a different result...no matter how slight.


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Undertakerson
post Nov 14 2011, 05:42 PM
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still way too much Pac flow in the northern stream - outruns the southern energy which get left behind over the 4 corners area. thus the energy wants to make yet another GL run (one of which almost has to create an ULL PV style as we move later into the month as the Greenland block tries to come back).

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_18z/avnloop.html

that and the s/e ridge centered at H5 down round Georgia - more "warm" rain for this time round.
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