INVEST 99L, Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential: High - 60% Options

[Ron in Miami]

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invest_al992011.invest
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201111201237
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2011, DB, O, 2011112006, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992011
AL, 99, 2011111912, , BEST, 0, 223N, 524W, 25, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011111918, , BEST, 0, 223N, 529W, 25, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011112000, , BEST, 0, 223N, 534W, 25, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 70, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011112006, , BEST, 0, 223N, 537W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 99, 2011112012, , BEST, 0, 223N, 537W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,





This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Nov 20 2011, 08:37 AM

Attached image(s)

 

[Snow____]

Alrighty Then.

[NYCSuburbs]

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CENTER. ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE FRONTAL IN
NATURE RATHER THAN TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL. THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL...OR MORE LIKELY
SUBTROPICAL...CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

Source

My very limited attention on the tropics right now is pretty much focused on Kenneth in the East Pacific.

[jdrenken]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
THAT WINDS TO NEAR GALE-FORCE ARE OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS NOT WELL-
DEFINED AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATER IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN