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> Dec 2-4 MidAtl/NE Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 days]
BtownWxWatcher
post Nov 20 2011, 09:58 AM
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GFS has been consistent on showing a storm in this period.
0z GFS

Attached Image

6z GFS

Attached Image


This post has been edited by BtownWxWatcher: Nov 20 2011, 10:02 AM


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Denverweather
post Nov 20 2011, 06:11 PM
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QUOTE(BtownWxWatcher @ Nov 20 2011, 09:58 AM) *
GFS has been consistent on showing a storm in this period.
0z GFS

Attached Image

6z GFS

Attached Image

as of now? this looks like a pattern changer


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Jack of all trad...
post Nov 20 2011, 06:50 PM
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Hey JD, Doorman, what are your thoughts on this. Pattern Changer ??


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snowman233
post Nov 20 2011, 06:59 PM
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The amount of cold air the models are bringing with this system truly is insane. Shows flurries for portions of the S plains even. And not just the GFS, either, even the ECMWF! Certainly something to watch, but it is QUITE a ways out.


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jdrenken
post Nov 20 2011, 07:11 PM
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QUOTE(Jack of all trades @ Nov 20 2011, 05:50 PM) *
Hey JD, Doorman, what are your thoughts on this. Pattern Changer ??


Being in the MidAtl/NE...you might not want to hear mine. wink.gif


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NYCSuburbs
post Nov 20 2011, 07:13 PM
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Still a loooonnngggg time away so I'm not even going to bother trying to focus on the specifics, but overall early December could be an interesting time frame. With a temporary improvement in the teleconnections, we may see a colder period of time near the central/eastern US at the start of December before the mild pattern likely continues afterwards (but likely not as persistent/warm as it is now). Whether it means snow for the Mid Atlantic, Northeast, or the Great Lakes I'm not sure yet, and with the pattern in place I would lean away from Mid Atlantic snowfall for this time frame, but if the storm potential is realized at the same time that cold air is over the northern US, someone in the region may see snow in this time frame if it doesn't track to our west. It'll be interesting to see what the models start to show with the overall pattern for early December as we get closer.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Nov 20 2011, 07:14 PM
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winterson1
post Nov 20 2011, 11:45 PM
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what is that monster cut off low on the oz gfs looks very impresive. sorry wrong time frame but i didnt know where else to post

This post has been edited by winterson1: Nov 20 2011, 11:51 PM
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psu1313
post Nov 21 2011, 09:00 AM
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It's still a good ways away and the 0z seems to have lost our storm. (shocker!) My personal thoughts on this storm are that this isn't the one. I'm looking for a mechanism to bring the cold air down from Alaska into the lower 48 to create the pattern shift and i'm just not seeing it for this time period. That said, it's -36 currently at Fairbanks, AK (which is extremely cold for them this time of year) and when the cold comes south it's probably going to come with a vengeance. I don't believe it's this storm as I think that's a little further into December but it's definitely something to keep an eye on.

Also, that could just be for the central US as La Nina is here and our good friend, the southeastern ridge, is in place and i'm concerned that will be a pest for the East Coast a lot of the winter. Check out the ESRL though and it does show a trough forming in the US at 264 and ever so slowly sliding east.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ens.html#nh

What i'm trying to say is, I don't think this is the storm but I think it's definitely a time period to watch.


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post Nov 21 2011, 09:30 AM
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QUOTE(psu1313 @ Nov 21 2011, 09:00 AM) *
It's still a good ways away and the 0z seems to have lost our storm. (shocker!) My personal thoughts on this storm are that this isn't the one. I'm looking for a mechanism to bring the cold air down from Alaska into the lower 48 to create the pattern shift and i'm just not seeing it for this time period. That said, it's -36 currently at Fairbanks, AK (which is extremely cold for them this time of year) and when the cold comes south it's probably going to come with a vengeance. I don't believe it's this storm as I think that's a little further into December but it's definitely something to keep an eye on.

Also, that could just be for the central US as La Nina is here and our good friend, the southeastern ridge, is in place and i'm concerned that will be a pest for the East Coast a lot of the winter. Check out the ESRL though and it does show a trough forming in the US at 264 and ever so slowly sliding east.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ens.html#nh

What i'm trying to say is, I don't think this is the storm but I think it's definitely a time period to watch.


By the time that cold air gets here-if ever-it will be weakened greatly-so it won't be coming with a vengeance.

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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 21 2011, 12:44 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 20 2011, 07:11 PM) *
Being in the MidAtl/NE...you might not want to hear mine. wink.gif

Well that doesn't sound to good JD wink.gif
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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 21 2011, 12:48 PM
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QUOTE(psu1313 @ Nov 21 2011, 09:00 AM) *
Also, that could just be for the central US as La Nina is here and our good friend, the southeastern ridge, is in place and i'm concerned that will be a pest for the East Coast a lot of the winter. Check out the ESRL though and it does show a trough forming in the US at 264 and ever so slowly sliding east.

What i'm trying to say is, I don't think this is the storm but I think it's definitely a time period to watch.

Very much agreed
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donutvampire
post Nov 21 2011, 02:29 PM
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Umm 12z GFS just showed the pattern change complete and my god im in tears its beautifull smile.gif


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EstorilM
post Nov 21 2011, 02:54 PM
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QUOTE(donutvampire @ Nov 21 2011, 03:29 PM) *
Umm 12z GFS just showed the pattern change complete and my god im in tears its beautifull smile.gif

Hm so the trough/temps are staying in place through the runs?

What did the models "lose" in the runs this morning, just the low?

Post some pics!


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donutvampire
post Nov 21 2011, 02:58 PM
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QUOTE(EstorilM @ Nov 21 2011, 02:54 PM) *
Hm so the trough/temps are staying in place through the runs?

What did the models "lose" in the runs this morning, just the low?

Post some pics!

Just go here http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/model_loops/12zgfs_namer_pcp.php and go to around 11/30/11 which is when a low tracks into canada and just destroys the current pattern.

This post has been edited by donutvampire: Nov 21 2011, 03:01 PM


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kma
post Nov 21 2011, 03:20 PM
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QUOTE(donutvampire @ Nov 21 2011, 05:58 PM) *
Just go here http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/model_loops/12zgfs_namer_pcp.php and go to around 11/30/11 which is when a low tracks into canada and just destroys the current pattern.

Wow that is one of the weirdest runs I have ever seen!
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NYCSuburbs
post Nov 21 2011, 03:40 PM
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QUOTE(donutvampire @ Nov 21 2011, 02:58 PM) *
Just go here http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/model_loops/12zgfs_namer_pcp.php and go to around 11/30/11 which is when a low tracks into canada and just destroys the current pattern.

It's somewhat true, but it won't look good for big cold/snow lovers... the SE ridge isn't there for the rest of the GFS run, but look at the intensity of the cold air in the US; 850mb temps don't reach -10c, and there's holes of above average 850mb temps popping in from time to time. Even though the EPO collapses to neutral, which is a positive, the NAO only remains neutral/slightly negative and the PNA goes down from positive to slightly negative as well. In addition, what I'm focusing on the most is not just what happens in the US, but over Canada as well; notice how despite the cold air coming down into the US, the strong Canadian cold air retreats into the arctic zone, with the temperatures aloft in Canada compared to where they were in late October. While the pattern should become slightly more favorable around early December, it's going to take much more time for a sustained cold/snow pattern to evolve.
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psu1313
post Nov 21 2011, 03:54 PM
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QUOTE(EstorilM @ Nov 21 2011, 02:54 PM) *
Hm so the trough/temps are staying in place through the runs?

What did the models "lose" in the runs this morning, just the low?

Post some pics!


Estoril,

The runs are completely different. They both handle the upper air patterns different. On the 00z it's a much flatter pattern throughout and the cut off low gets swept up and pulled out by a trough while the 12z amplifies a ridge on the west coast and the cut off low gets caught up in a trough and the trough digs. The energy then comes around the bend on 12/2.

Since i'm at work and can't post pics, I refer you to the PSU ewall: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

Snowrider, I realize the tracks aren't laid yet (snowcover is still limited) and obviously the system would moderate, but that air mass is not a joke and if it were to come south it would pack a punch. Luckily it's bottled up in Alaska and western canada and right now there is no mechanism to pull the cold down into the states.

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Undertakerson
post Nov 21 2011, 04:20 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Nov 21 2011, 03:40 PM) *
It's somewhat true, but it won't look good for big cold/snow lovers... the SE ridge isn't there for the rest of the GFS run, but look at the intensity of the cold air in the US; 850mb temps don't reach -10c, and there's holes of above average 850mb temps popping in from time to time. Even though the EPO collapses to neutral, which is a positive, the NAO only remains neutral/slightly negative and the PNA goes down from positive to slightly negative as well. In addition, what I'm focusing on the most is not just what happens in the US, but over Canada as well; notice how despite the cold air coming down into the US, the strong Canadian cold air retreats into the arctic zone, with the temperatures aloft in Canada compared to where they were in late October. While the pattern should become slightly more favorable around early December, it's going to take much more time for a sustained cold/snow pattern to evolve.

Very much agree NYCS - the flow through Canada is very important. The models show no relenting in that depiction. So unitl an ULL can form and the strong Pac flow in the northern stream abates, it's seasonal cold only for us and not enough of a change to be called a pattern changer. A negative NAO would certainly help the northern pattern to become blocky, allowing a ULL that could help funnel cold air and that would be our best hope in the short term.

The cold air does make it down by this time, but into the Central US and therefore relaxes by the time if gets over here



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post Nov 21 2011, 06:03 PM
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I have a funny feeling that this winter is going to be hard pressed to see any real extended periods of cold here in the east. I hope I'm wrong, but I feel that this winter will be highly variable-(cold for a few days, then milder, then cooler again etc...)-(stormy periods, followed by calm/mild periods when the PNA goes negative and NAO/AO go positive for extended periods). This winter is going to be a different animal than what the east was used to last year and the year before. I never did buy into the "Cold and Snowy" idea that was advertised by you know who.

Alot of things have to happen for this pattern to truly change, and it may just never really fully happen and stay that way for any length of time. This storm changes some things, but not enough(the way it looks now)things to truly break the current pattern. And if you don't change the vast majority of the things-you get the short term cool spell, and then back to the same old-same old.

Now I'm no MET, and a month from now we could be talking about a whole new ballgame. But if you live in the east, I think we all need to be prepared for the possibility of a less than ideal/lousy pattern for cold and snow. If your hopes/expectations are not that high because of what were seeing now, then you may be better prepared to deal with the dissapointment of a lackluster winter set up.

Not being a downer, so please don't think that, but from 8-10-14 days out the models look great, and then they steadily go down hill. Don't get your hopes up on the "Pipe Dream" two weeks in advance-you'll just be let down in the end. I stopped looking ahead at this point-to me it's futile right now. After Thanksgiving I'll take a look to see if there is any light at the end of this tunnel. But for now, we are locked in to this set-up. The bright spot is-it's still only November, so time is still certainly on our side, and we have a whole lot of time for things to set-up and change for us.

My local NBC News station here in CT is putting out their annual winter outlook tonight, it'll be interesting to see what they say.

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sw03181
post Nov 21 2011, 06:20 PM
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QUOTE(Snowrider @ Nov 21 2011, 06:03 PM) *
I have a funny feeling that this winter is going to be hard pressed to see any real extended periods of cold here in the east. I hope I'm wrong, but I feel that this winter will be highly variable-(cold for a few days, then milder, then cooler again etc...)-(stormy periods, followed by calm/mild periods when the PNA goes negative and NAO/AO go positive for extended periods). This winter is going to be a different animal than what the east was used to last year and the year before. I never did buy into the "Cold and Snowy" idea that was advertised by you know who.

Alot of things have to happen for this pattern to truly change, and it may just never really fully happen and stay that way for any length of time. This storm changes some things, but not enough(the way it looks now)things to truly break the current pattern. And if you don't change the vast majority of the things-you get the short term cool spell, and then back to the same old-same old.

Now I'm no MET, and a month from now we could be talking about a whole new ballgame. But if you live in the east, I think we all need to be prepared for the possibility of a less than ideal/lousy pattern for cold and snow. If your hopes/expectations are not that high because of what were seeing now, then you may be better prepared to deal with the dissapointment of a lackluster winter set up.

Not being a downer, so please don't think that, but from 8-10-14 days out the models look great, and then they steadily go down hill. Don't get your hopes up on the "Pipe Dream" two weeks in advance-you'll just be let down in the end. I stopped looking ahead at this point-to me it's futile right now. After Thanksgiving I'll take a look to see if there is any light at the end of this tunnel. But for now, we are locked in to this set-up. The bright spot is-it's still only November, so time is still certainly on our side, and we have a whole lot of time for things to set-up and change for us.

My local NBC News station here in CT is putting out their annual winter outlook tonight, it'll be interesting to see what they say.

Snowrider.

Without going too far OT but I'm expecting that most stations will call for an average winter, given the fact that the pattern is not where it was once expected to be AND because we already have accumulated a quarter of our season snowfall (at least at BDL).

Channel 8 might actually lean towards below average snowfall, as they always lean to the conservative side for winter storm forecasts.


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