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> Hurricane Kenneth, 1AM PST: CAT2 110MPH - 968MB - W @ 9MPH
NYCSuburbs
post Nov 21 2011, 03:14 PM
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What a weird East Pacific season... we had near record low activity, but at the same time there were 4 category 4 hurricanes, and now we might see the strongest November hurricane in the East Pacific on record...

Attached Image

Attached Image

Previous strongest November hurricane: 2006's Sergio, at 110 mph/965 mb.

NHC discussion:

QUOTE
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
700 AM PST MON NOV 21 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KENNETH CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED COILED BAND
WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT
A RAGGED EYE IS FORMING...AND A 1141 UTC SSMIS SHOWS A NEARLY
LOW-LEVEL CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE A
CONSENSUS 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE HAS FURTHER INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 70 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A STEADY 285/12. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
THE TRACK OF KENNETH BENDING MORE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT IS STEERED BY AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO.
IN 2-3 DAYS...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE U.S. WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A GREATER POLEWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD THEN RE-STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CAUSING THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TO TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT DIVERGES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES ARE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH/VERTICAL
DEPTH OF KENNETH BEYOND 3 DAYS...WITH THE GFS FAVORING A STRONGER
CYCLONE AND THE ECMWF DEPICTING A WEAKER VERSION. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND
THEN ADJUSTED A BIT SOUTHWARD...CONTINUING TO WEIGH THE ECMWF MORE
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH KENNETH HAS ALREADY EXITED THE WARMEST WATERS OF THE
BASIN...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE UNCLIMATOLOGICALLY
LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
. BARRING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OR
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INNER CORE...KENNETH IS LIKELY TO REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT A DAY OR SO.
SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD
COMMENCE AFTER THIS TIME AS THE WATERS GRADUALLY COOL ALONG ITS
PATH. A FASTER WEAKENING...PERHAPS MORE THAN INDICATED HERE...IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD ONCE KENNETH REACHES WATERS OF 25-26C
AND WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL/FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THROUGH 72
HOURS AND CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT AFTER THAT.

SHOULD KENNETH ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...IT WOULD BE THE
LATEST MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN
SATELLITE ERA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 12.7N 109.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 12.9N 111.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 13.0N 115.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 13.4N 117.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 14.4N 120.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 15.2N 124.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 15.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


Also, if it remains a tropical cyclone through Saturday, it should also break the record for the longest November East Pacific tropical cyclone on record, currently held by Sergio as well.




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jdrenken
post Nov 21 2011, 10:39 PM
Post #2




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QUOTE
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
700 PM PST MON NOV 21 2011

...KENNETH STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 111.8W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KENNETH WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST. KENNETH IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED
LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KENNETH IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND KENNETH COULD BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY
.
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 AM PST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


--------------------
QUOTE
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Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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jdrenken
post Nov 22 2011, 07:44 AM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 33,418
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
100 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

...KENNETH RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 112.8W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KENNETH WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST. KENNETH IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KENNETH IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE TODAY. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 AM PST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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jdrenken
post Nov 22 2011, 12:02 PM
Post #4




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From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
700 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

...KENNETH STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...STRONGEST LATE
SEASON EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD
...



SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 113.9W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE KENNETH WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST. KENNETH IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KENNETH IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 PM PST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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NYCSuburbs
post Nov 22 2011, 03:18 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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The 5th category 4 hurricane of the East Pacific hurricane season forms in late November... unless we get a category 2 hurricane in December, I can't see how this season could get any stranger than what it is now blink.gif blink.gif

Attached Image


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jdrenken
post Nov 22 2011, 05:46 PM
Post #6




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From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
100 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KENNETH FINALLY STOPS STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 114.9W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KENNETH WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST. KENNETH IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THIS
MOTION SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KENNETH IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 PM PST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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jdrenken
post Nov 23 2011, 06:49 AM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 33,418
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
100 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

...KENNETH WEAKENING RAPIDLY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 116.5W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KENNETH WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST. KENNETH IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KENNETH IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KENNETH COULD WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 AM PST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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