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> MidAtl/NE Pattern Change Storms, Theory
Lady Luck
post Nov 23 2011, 12:07 AM
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I put together the pattern I believe is occurring this year. I divided it into eleven cycles. The focal point of each cycle is the pattern changer.

...Now this is not 100% accurate but it is visible if you take the time to examine a specific frame.
If you have any questions, feel free to ask them in this thread.


Making Assumptions


The main idea of this thread and my work is to predict the next big snow event and to verify my pattern. The most recent big snow event in our area was on October 29th, 2011. The event came in October and was roughly sixteen days away from a period of relatively warm temperatures.

Warm temperatures were due to an increase in the NAO/AO/ Ridging in the Central Atlantic/East US (ushering warmer temperatures) , and an Enhanced Pacific Jet (ushering wet/below avg conditions) over the Western US or Central US.

The trend in the warm cycle of October 8-15 is similar to the trend in the warm cycle of November 19th-November 26th (with some exceptions due to the polar jet being so active in November).

The proceeding cycle then resulted in a strong winter storm.

The potential for a strong winter storm is increased during the December 8 to the 11th frame due to the similarities in the trends from early October and late November. If you notice, the December 10th date is the next "pattern breaking storm" in my pattern.

*The usual scenario would have a departing system (December 7-8th), stalled front near the East Coast, secondary piece of energy developing near the tail-end or near the GOM (December 7-). Secondary piece of energy then moving up the EC as upper level energy phases into the surface Low around December 10-11th+ period.

Note: Note the active events that surround Event 3 or "The Storm/ The beginning of the pattern changer." Event Number 3 is surrounded by potential cold fronts and wet conditions.
The period that I am referring to is coming up on Nov.24-30 (you will see a similar synoptic scenario as described above*) then on December 8-14 (you will see a similar scenario but with a twist IMO).



Attached File  New_Picture__1_.jpg ( 82.06K ) Number of downloads: 15


This post has been edited by Lady Luck: Nov 23 2011, 12:39 AM


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JBG
post Nov 23 2011, 08:04 AM
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donutvampire
post Nov 23 2011, 10:18 AM
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Looks about right biggrin.gif


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sw03181
post Nov 23 2011, 05:54 PM
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the 18z GFS does have a storm a couple days before your indicated timeframe (12/6 to 12/8). A thread may be needed for that.http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcont...p;nextImage=yes

This post has been edited by sw03181: Nov 23 2011, 05:54 PM


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"

2013-2014 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31):
Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 47"
Actual: 38.5"


11/12: T
11/23: T (LES)
12/7: T
12/9: T
12/10: 3.0"
12/14: 6.0"
12/17: 4.0"
12/24: T (just a few flakes)
12/26: 0.5"
1/1-1/3: 7.5"
1/10: 1.0"
1/19: T
1/21-1/22: 4" (FAIL)
1/29 "HECS": T
2/3: 3"
2/5: 9.5"
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donutvampire
post Nov 25 2011, 01:00 PM
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all three images are 00z




Snow rain to heavy snow for my area smile.gif...thats 00z GFS, the 06z lost it and the 12z has it tracking over the great lakes and therefore has a warmer solution. This may be one to watch.

This post has been edited by donutvampire: Nov 25 2011, 01:05 PM


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Lady Luck
post Nov 25 2011, 07:56 PM
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That actually looks more like the cold front that I forecasted before the 8th. The interest is what occurs after it passes and what moves into the South. The time period is after the 8 and before the 14th.


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sw03181
post Nov 25 2011, 08:05 PM
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I now have a thread opened for the storm mentioned above


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"

2013-2014 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31):
Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 47"
Actual: 38.5"


11/12: T
11/23: T (LES)
12/7: T
12/9: T
12/10: 3.0"
12/14: 6.0"
12/17: 4.0"
12/24: T (just a few flakes)
12/26: 0.5"
1/1-1/3: 7.5"
1/10: 1.0"
1/19: T
1/21-1/22: 4" (FAIL)
1/29 "HECS": T
2/3: 3"
2/5: 9.5"
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jdrenken
post Nov 25 2011, 08:12 PM
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QUOTE(Lady Luck @ Nov 25 2011, 07:06 PM) *
Looking at that with a quick eye there appears to be leftover energy way down south, cold air over us, and the departing might act as a 50/50 low. Attention Admin. Please direct mod to change back my thread title and move it to its original place... I do have that right?


Attn Lady Luck...your original thread wasn't within the guidelines. You're lucky it's showing up.

EDIT: I don't believe you are in the position to tell our administrator to tell me what to do. wink.gif

I would strongly suggest that you utilize this thread for your theory and not open threads in the 'current weather' section that don't fit within the guidelines.


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Lady Luck
post Jan 10 2012, 01:06 AM
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CHANGES TO THE PATTERN AND THE FUTURE WINTER STORM POTENTIAL
January 23(Mon.)-25th(Wed.),2012.

I actually just realized the problem with the pattern I posted. It is off by ONE day. Here is what I love to do, and that is predict weather. My pattern says warm-air should invade the area but the pattern has flipped and allowed cold air to invade. I believe that if there is no warm-up, the best potential is to have persistent cold in the cycle (persistent cold usually means dry conditions)--TONS OF BLOCKING AS WELL.

PATTERN CYCLE(S)
WARM-UP: 30 DEC, 13 JAN, 27
COLD FRONT: 4, 18, 1 FEB
PATTERN CHANGE: 6, 20, 3
COLD FRONT: 10, 24, 7

EXAMPLE SET: ( 30 DEC , 4 , 6 , 10 JAN ).

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE PATTERN WILL FLIP ON THE 13TH OF JANUARY (usually the cycle begins with a warm-up but in this case we are looking at a significant upper trough entering the area).

Also, I noticed that the pattern changer no longer carries the best potential for a winter storm. The pattern shifted to potential snow threats between the cold front and the warm-up event.



I think it will be cold and relatively dry from January 13th-20th (one cycle in my pattern)

HOWEVER, using my pattern, I believe we will have another potential for a good Winter Storm on January 23-25th. This is when I believe there will be warm-air trying to make it back.

1.Looking at the long range GFS and ECMWF, I see that there is sufficient blocking in the Northern Atlantic to allow disturbances to intensity and re curve back into Canada, this will not only supply sufficient phasing but provide sufficient vorticity into the polar jet.

2.There will most likely be a polar front on the 23rd of January (clearing the East and stalling in the Southeast). It will be strong enough to allow some warm-air to be lifted ahead of it and to move some cut-off energy in the southern stream toward the East Coast from the Four-Corner region. The polar energy from this front will mature and produce a 50/50 Low on the 24th (assuming sufficient blocking in place in the Atlantic). This will be the downstream energy of an upper trough trying to build down toward the East Coast.

3.(Upstream Region of the Upper trough) The polar energy will most likely dive into Central or Western US near Montana (approx on the 23rd). As the -NAO increases, the cut-off energy in the south begins to move up toward the Southeast Coast (as warmer air builds toward the coast and into the South). Also, the updraft energy from the polar jet will begin to phase with the cut-off energy most likely on the 24th. The surface Low will begin to intensify along the stalled front in the Southeast.

4.The disturbance begins to rapidly intensify on the East Coast on the 24/25th as the upper trough gains a negative tilt.

5.The Strong Low Pressure moves up the coast and then slowly matures and curves into Canada on the 25th of January (as an arctic Low Pressure approaches the Great Lakes Region).

What I described is basically the pattern in place if sufficient blocking is present between the "cold front" and the "warm-up." Similar periods include October 26-29 (good blocking), December 9-11 (poor blocking at the onset), and the next period is January 23-25 2012 (forecasted blocking in place). smile.gif

This post has been edited by Lady Luck: Jan 11 2012, 09:57 AM


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JBG
post Jan 10 2012, 05:50 PM
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This sounds a bit like 1990-1 or 2001-2, i.e. nothing to write home about.

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Lady Luck
post Jan 11 2012, 10:20 AM
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QUOTE(Lady Luck @ Jan 10 2012, 01:06 AM) *
CHANGES TO THE PATTERN AND THE FUTURE WINTER STORM POTENTIAL
January 23(Mon.)-25th(Wed.),2012.

I actually just realized the problem with the pattern I posted. It is off by ONE day. Here is what I love to do, and that is predict weather. My pattern says warm-air should invade the area but the pattern has flipped and allowed cold air to invade. I believe that if there is no warm-up, the best potential is to have persistent cold in the cycle (persistent cold usually means dry conditions)--TONS OF BLOCKING AS WELL.

PATTERN CYCLE(S)
WARM-UP: 30 DEC, 13 JAN, 27
COLD FRONT: 4, 18, 1 FEB
PATTERN CHANGE: 6, 20, 3
COLD FRONT: 10, 24, 7

EXAMPLE SET: ( 30 DEC , 4 , 6 , 10 JAN ).

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE PATTERN WILL FLIP ON THE 13TH OF JANUARY (usually the cycle begins with a warm-up but in this case we are looking at a significant upper trough entering the area).

Also, I noticed that the pattern changer no longer carries the best potential for a winter storm. The pattern shifted to potential snow threats between the cold front and the warm-up event.

I think it will be cold and relatively dry from January 13th-20th (one cycle in my pattern)

HOWEVER, using my pattern, I believe we will have another potential for a good Winter Storm on January 23-25th. This is when I believe there will be warm-air trying to make it back.

1.Looking at the long range GFS and ECMWF, I see that there is sufficient blocking in the Northern Atlantic to allow disturbances to intensity and re curve back into Canada, this will not only supply sufficient phasing but provide sufficient vorticity into the polar jet.

2.There will most likely be a polar front on the 23rd of January (clearing the East and stalling in the Southeast). It will be strong enough to allow some warm-air to be lifted ahead of it and to move some cut-off energy in the southern stream toward the East Coast from the Four-Corner region. The polar energy from this front will mature and produce a 50/50 Low on the 24th (assuming sufficient blocking in place in the Atlantic). This will be the downstream energy of an upper trough trying to build down toward the East Coast.

3.(Upstream Region of the Upper trough) The polar energy will most likely dive into Central or Western US near Montana (approx on the 23rd). As the -NAO increases, the cut-off energy in the south begins to move up toward the Southeast Coast (as warmer air builds toward the coast and into the South). Also, the updraft energy from the polar jet will begin to phase with the cut-off energy most likely on the 24th. The surface Low will begin to intensify along the stalled front in the Southeast.

4.The disturbance begins to rapidly intensify on the East Coast on the 24/25th as the upper trough gains a negative tilt.

5.The Strong Low Pressure moves up the coast and then slowly matures and curves into Canada on the 25th of January (as an arctic Low Pressure approaches the Great Lakes Region).

What I described is basically the pattern in place if sufficient blocking is present between the "cold front" and the "warm-up." Similar periods include October 26-29 (good blocking), December 9-11 (poor blocking at the onset), and the next period is January 23-25 2012 (forecasted blocking in place). smile.gif



1. I would like to note that models indicate relatively cold and dry conditions from the 13-20TH. On the 20-22 (FRI-SUN) of January both the ECMWF and GFS show a pattern change (as predicted by my pattern). On the 20-22nd of January there looks to be plenty of blocking present in the Atlantic, and a significant Upper trough forming in the Central US (extending toward the Eastern US). The 20-22ND looks to have decreasing pressure with warm and potentially wet conditions in the East.

January 20-22nd (ECMWF SET-UP):
Attached File  Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_240.gif ( 108.91K ) Number of downloads: 1


Then...In the next two day period...

2.The dynamic cold front that comes through potential on the 22nd, will most likely stall in the East on the 23rd due to the blocking in the Atlantic and allow most of the upper energy to be shifted toward the 50/50 benchmark (in the form of an Upper Level Low). The cold front will also usher in cold air (will it be enough for snow I do not know). This will be our main set-up before the potential "winter storm."

In this pattern there is a good chance to have some cut-off energy on the tail-end of the front from the Four-Corner region---into TX---Southeast--- that gets picked up by the upstream energy (or the rebuilding upper trough)---most likely on the 23-24th. This is when the potential for a winter storm is in effect.


This post has been edited by Lady Luck: Jan 11 2012, 10:26 AM


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