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> November 26-? West (CA) Warm/Dry Period
alxz310
post Nov 24 2011, 01:44 AM
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After a prolonged period of storms dropping down into California and an unusually wet November, it looks like the pattern is about to change with a 591DM ridge set to build into SW California. Some offshore flow will also send temps into the 80s in some areas west of the mountains.



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Davis, CA

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Beck
post Nov 24 2011, 01:58 AM
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Fog has settled in over the past couple hours. Anyway, looks like we're looking at highs in the low 80s at the beginning of next week. dry.gif


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Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.37" (+0.25")
Normal to-date precipitation: 0.12"
Season began July 1st, 2014.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 2.06"

Temecula Weather Pages
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Artisane
post Nov 24 2011, 09:31 AM
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After a brief day or two around 70F, we'll drop down to mid 40s for highs for the first weekend in December. Winter is finally arriving.
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alxz310
post Nov 24 2011, 05:14 PM
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Pretty nice day here - sunny with some high clouds in places and temps in the low to mid 60s. Also I just noticed Torrance is reporting light rain right now, odd...

Anyways it's forecast to warm up nicely for the weekend - im planning a bike ride down to Hermosa Beach on saturday to enjoy the warm weather smile.gif


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Davis, CA

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Monthly Rainfall (September): 0.00"
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FrostFuzz
post Nov 25 2011, 02:26 AM
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The GFS and the EC are really divided when it comes to the long range. Both agree until about Tuesday, when there is a ridge overhead and a low coming in to Washington. By hour 180 the GFS has the low in Georgia while the EC has the low off of our coast. The EC then has an unsettled pattern continuing through at least hour 240, while the GFS is basically dry through it's run. Obviously something has to give, but each model has been persistent with it's own pattern for a while. The CMC has gone both ways with the latest run closer to the EC, but the one before closer to the GFS.

This post has been edited by FrostFuzz: Nov 25 2011, 02:51 AM


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My Precip Total '13-'14: 4.36"


Precip for '14-'15: 0.13"

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Artisane
post Nov 25 2011, 08:55 AM
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Looks like accuweather sees .1" of snow for the 6th. 99% chance of that not happening, but its nice to see some models showing snow so early in the season.
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FrostFuzz
post Nov 25 2011, 12:23 PM
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It is possible that we might get an inside slider next week. Even if we do though there is no guarantee of rainfall. On the flip side though it might bring showers and possibly thunderstorms and low level snowfall. Impossible to say what will happen now, but worth keeping an eye on.

This post has been edited by FrostFuzz: Nov 25 2011, 12:27 PM


--------------------
My Precip Total '13-'14: 4.36"


Precip for '14-'15: 0.13"

http://www.youtube.com/user/frostfuzz
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Artisane
post Nov 25 2011, 01:03 PM
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QUOTE(FrostFuzz @ Nov 25 2011, 09:23 AM) *
It is possible that we might get an inside slider next week. Even if we do though there is no guarantee of rainfall. On the flip side though it might bring showers and possibly thunderstorms and low level snowfall. Impossible to say what will happen now, but worth keeping an eye on.

I think that's what the accumodel is seeing. Its those inside sliders that usually give us our surprise snow in the AV.
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alxz310
post Nov 25 2011, 02:31 PM
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QUOTE(FrostFuzz @ Nov 24 2011, 11:26 PM) *
The GFS and the EC are really divided when it comes to the long range. Both agree until about Tuesday, when there is a ridge overhead and a low coming in to Washington. By hour 180 the GFS has the low in Georgia while the EC has the low off of our coast. The EC then has an unsettled pattern continuing through at least hour 240, while the GFS is basically dry through it's run. Obviously something has to give, but each model has been persistent with it's own pattern for a while. The CMC has gone both ways with the latest run closer to the EC, but the one before closer to the GFS.



The 12Z GFS has some INSANELY strong windows with that inside slider. NE 60mph @850mb and NE 29mph at the 10m level. That seems very extreme, but if it were to verify... wow


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Davis, CA

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Record Low: --F
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Beck
post Nov 25 2011, 10:39 PM
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69F today....82F tomorrow....WHAT? dry.gif


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.37" (+0.25")
Normal to-date precipitation: 0.12"
Season began July 1st, 2014.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 2.06"

Temecula Weather Pages
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Artisane
post Nov 25 2011, 11:03 PM
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QUOTE(Beck @ Nov 25 2011, 07:39 PM) *
69F today....82F tomorrow....WHAT? dry.gif

Looks like a Santa Ana. High Desert's going to get NE winds around 20mph tomorrow. Our high should only be 70F though.
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ChrisL
post Nov 26 2011, 01:23 AM
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QUOTE(Artisane @ Nov 25 2011, 11:03 AM) *
I think that's what the accumodel is seeing. Its those inside sliders that usually give us our surprise snow in the AV.


Sorry newbie question here but what is a "slider" in regards to weather?

Accuweathers forecast for next week is still showing some precip wink.gif
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alxz310
post Nov 26 2011, 01:44 AM
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QUOTE(ChrisL @ Nov 25 2011, 10:23 PM) *
Sorry newbie question here but what is a "slider" in regards to weather?

Accuweathers forecast for next week is still showing some precip wink.gif


"INSIDE SLIDER: A term used to describe a weather system that moves into California from the northwest, with the bulk of the system's energy moving inland toward the Sierra Nevada and the Great Basin. These systems usually bring cool, breezy weather to Northern and Central California, but since the associated winds don't pass over the ocean, an inside slider normally produces only light precipitation, if any. On some occasions after the slider passes out of our region, surface high pressure builds strongly into the Great Basin, causing an offshore weather pattern to develop over our area, sometimes with unseasonably warm temperatures and strong, dry winds from the east or northeast"

Hopefully that helps wink.gif

And the 00Z GFS is back with a strong Santa Ana wind event in place of rain


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ChrisL
post Nov 26 2011, 02:07 AM
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QUOTE(alxz310 @ Nov 25 2011, 11:44 PM) *
Hopefully that helps wink.gif

And the 00Z GFS is back with a strong Santa Ana wind event in place of rain


alxz310, thanks that was helpful explanation wink.gif

and yuck in regards to the Santa Ana event =\
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FrostFuzz
post Nov 26 2011, 02:32 AM
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QUOTE(alxz310 @ Nov 26 2011, 01:44 AM) *
And the 00Z GFS is back with a strong Santa Ana wind event in place of rain

Yeah, although not quite as strong as the 12z. Models are clearly going to have a tough time with next weekend. It is still medium/long range so anything at this point is still speculation.


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My Precip Total '13-'14: 4.36"


Precip for '14-'15: 0.13"

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FrostFuzz
post Nov 26 2011, 01:17 PM
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It's already surpassed yesterday's high by 6 degrees, at 10 in the morning!


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My Precip Total '13-'14: 4.36"


Precip for '14-'15: 0.13"

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alxz310
post Nov 26 2011, 01:39 PM
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Wow, the temperature jumped 17F in the last 2hrs and 10F in the last hour. Nice to see its warming up nicely - good day for a bike ride down by the beach smile.gif


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Davis, CA

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Average Low: --F
Actual to Date: --F

Record High: ---F
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Artisane
post Nov 26 2011, 03:53 PM
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QUOTE(alxz310 @ Nov 26 2011, 10:39 AM) *
Wow, the temperature jumped 17F in the last 2hrs and 10F in the last hour. Nice to see its warming up nicely - good day for a bike ride down by the beach smile.gif

Only 60F up here. I guess the 70F was a bit too unrealistic for us today.
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Jet Developer
post Nov 26 2011, 08:27 PM
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It was a beautiful day today, but sure got dark fast. Pretty strange to have temperatures in the mid 80s when it is pitch black at 5:30 PM.

Tomorrow begins the 15 consecutive days of sunset at 4:42 PM in Lake Forest before it finally goes back to 4:43 PM by Dec. 12. Earliest sunsets are Dec. 4-5.

This post has been edited by Jet Developer: Nov 26 2011, 08:29 PM
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aveosmth
post Nov 26 2011, 09:27 PM
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12Z Euro shows a classic Antelope Valley killer snowstorm...reminds me a bit of the January storm this year.
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