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> Dec. 6-8 MidAtl/NE Storm, Possibility:Medium Range [4-7 Days Out Forecast]
sw03181
post Nov 25 2011, 08:02 PM
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All of today's GFS runs have shown some variant of a storm affecting this timeframe:
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--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 60.95"


2014-2015 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31) :
Total snowfall: 40 /- 6"
Actual: 0.25"

11/14: 0.25"

# of SECS: 3
# of MECS: 1
# of HECS: 0
# of Ice storms: 0
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NorEaster07
post Nov 25 2011, 08:35 PM
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Last gfs run has about .50qpf and cold enough for snow for the Ct coast..slightly less amounts as you move north..


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 25 2011, 10:34 PM
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Looks good, hope it holds on the models....but we all know how this goes wink.gif
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SnowMan11
post Nov 25 2011, 11:46 PM
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0z GFS pops a storm near the 5th. Really nice pattern in the long range.


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Winter =)
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donutvampire
post Nov 26 2011, 01:40 AM
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Im liking the 00z GFS.. just need the heavier precip a little more inland smile.gif


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Location: Portland, ME
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NorEaster07
post Nov 26 2011, 06:56 AM
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I dont see any consistancy with the models... One day its a clipper, one day its nothing, one day its a coastal... At least with the other storms we got we had more then 2-3 runs of the same senario. Seems like each update has a different setup. Doesnt make me confident yet.


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NYCSuburbs
post Nov 26 2011, 08:30 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Nov 26 2011, 06:56 AM) *
I dont see any consistancy with the models... One day its a clipper, one day its nothing, one day its a coastal... At least with the other storms we got we had more then 2-3 runs of the same senario. Seems like each update has a different setup. Doesnt make me confident yet.

This far out, we shouldn't even be looking for the set up that each run has. Until we get into the 180 hour range, the best we can do is at least make sure that there is a storm in this time frame; the set up will undoubtedly vary with each run.


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jdrenken
post Nov 26 2011, 08:34 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Nov 26 2011, 05:56 AM) *
I dont see any consistancy with the models... One day its a clipper, one day its nothing, one day its a coastal... At least with the other storms we got we had more then 2-3 runs of the same senario. Seems like each update has a different setup. Doesnt make me confident yet.


That's one of the biggest reasons why I don't like to start long range threads.


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QUOTE
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NorEaster07
post Nov 26 2011, 08:59 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Nov 26 2011, 08:30 AM) *
This far out, we shouldn't even be looking for the set up that each run has. Until we get into the 180 hour range, the best we can do is at least make sure that there is a storm in this time frame; the set up will undoubtedly vary with each run.


What has worked for me for a long time is to watch for consistancy even this far out... When its there,(and it has been for other storms) it happens 90% of the time... By consistancy I mean seeing something there for more then 3 times in a row...

With that said just looking back, that post was for the December 3rd thread..NOT this one... My fault..

Here's the latest 4 runs for this storm... It had it for 3 runs in a row and the last run has barely any precip for everyone.. But I think it had it for the 6z run yesterday as well making it 4 runs in a row...

If I see barely any precip for the next 3 runs confidence grows back to nothing happening.

Attached Image




--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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Undertakerson
post Nov 26 2011, 09:01 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 26 2011, 08:34 AM) *
That's one of the biggest reasons why I don't like to start long range threads.

I don't mind the LR threats threads - so long as we focus on peristancy not consistancy in the models.

The former looks at the set up (preferably at a NHEM view level) to see if the teleconnectors, etc. are setting up a particular way. The downstream sensible weather then resloves at the situation evolves.

We get into trouble when we too soon bite a solutions we'd prefer and not give credit to those that we don't (but may end up being correct).

For now- with this system, I see some persistancy with the increasing heights over the W Coast/Rocky Mtn region at H5 - and a persistant signal of east coast troughiness - and a constant strong push from the Pac. Also a temporary relax of the SE rdige.

Such things are not totally unfavorable for a wintery storm as those signals translate east.


--------------------
There are 2 types of people in this world. 1) Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data.
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jdrenken
post Nov 26 2011, 09:12 AM
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Those along the I-95 that worship JB are staying quiet about these post.

JB is throwing out hints.

QUOTE
day 10 n jet aimed at southern branch.major trough, big storm with very cold air Dec6-10 miss valley to n appalachians


QUOTE
The day 10 euro looks to me like it is getting ready for the first major disruptive winter storm of season. Mid/up miss valley to int ne


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 26 2011, 09:40 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Nov 26 2011, 08:30 AM) *
This far out, we shouldn't even be looking for the set up that each run has. Until we get into the 180 hour range

agreed
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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 26 2011, 09:42 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 26 2011, 09:01 AM) *
I don't mind the LR threats threads - so long as we focus on peristancy not consistancy in the models.

Very well said pal....very sensible.
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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 26 2011, 09:44 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 26 2011, 09:12 AM) *
JB[/url] is throwing out hints.

sounds somewhat good, of coarse as long as his feelings come to fruition that is wink.gif
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WhiteChristmas
post Nov 26 2011, 09:58 AM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Nov 26 2011, 09:44 AM) *
sounds somewhat good, of coarse as long as his feelings come to fruition that is wink.gif

So he's not predicting the "storm of the century" with this one? tongue.gif


--------------------
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sw03181
post Nov 26 2011, 10:56 AM
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6z GFS still has the storm, although it phases too late to really affect anyone.

Bitterly cold air does come in behind it, though.


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 60.95"


2014-2015 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31) :
Total snowfall: 40 /- 6"
Actual: 0.25"

11/14: 0.25"

# of SECS: 3
# of MECS: 1
# of HECS: 0
# of Ice storms: 0
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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 26 2011, 01:02 PM
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QUOTE(sw03181 @ Nov 26 2011, 10:56 AM) *
6z GFS still has the storm, although it phases too late to really affect anyone.

Bitterly cold air does come in behind it, though.

I'll gladly take some "Bitterly COLD air"
biggrin.gif
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EstorilM
post Nov 26 2011, 01:04 PM
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QUOTE(sw03181 @ Nov 26 2011, 10:56 AM) *
6z GFS still has the storm, although it phases too late to really affect anyone.

Bitterly cold air does come in behind it, though.

Yeah, huge change in temps from a couple runs ago - really digs far south


--------------------
09-10 OCT 0.0 NOV 0.0 DEC 21.4 JAN 5.7 FEB 46.1 MAR T =73.2
10-11 OCT 0.0 NOV 0.0 DEC 1.5 JAN 10.3 FEB 0.7 MAR 0.1 =12.6
11-12 OCT 0.6 NOV 0.0 DEC T JAN 1.7 FEB 1.4 MAR T = 3.7
*working on last years stats and sig update
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sw03181
post Nov 26 2011, 01:20 PM
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12z GFS now has a FROPA. Heavy rain to snow for pretty much everyone.

Average to below-average temps are behind it.


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 60.95"


2014-2015 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31) :
Total snowfall: 40 /- 6"
Actual: 0.25"

11/14: 0.25"

# of SECS: 3
# of MECS: 1
# of HECS: 0
# of Ice storms: 0
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donutvampire
post Nov 26 2011, 02:26 PM
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QUOTE(sw03181 @ Nov 26 2011, 01:20 PM) *
12z GFS now has a FROPA. Heavy rain to snow for pretty much everyone.

Average to below-average temps are behind it.


The only areas that do well with this run are the very far inland areas.

This post has been edited by donutvampire: Nov 26 2011, 02:26 PM


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