 Dec. 6-8 MidAtl/NE Storm, Possibility:Medium Range [4-7 Days Out Forecast] |
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 Nov 25 2011, 08:02 PM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 6,921 Joined: 7-December 08 From: South Windsor, CT Member No.: 16,373  |
All of today's GFS runs have shown some variant of a storm affecting this timeframe:
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-------------------- Rob
Member of the 30" Club 2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5" 2012-2013 Winter Wx predictions: Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 39.5" 50+ Degree Days since Dec. 1: 10 Winter Wx. Events: 11/7-11/9: 7" 11/27-11/29: T 11/30: T (flurries) 12/22: T (lake-effect) 12/24: 1" (clipper) 12/27: 5" (turned to slop) 12/29-12/30: 10" (resulted in 2 week snowpack) 1/16: 4" 1/21:T (norlun) 1/25-1/26: T 1/28: 2" 2/1-2/3:T 2/5: T 2013 North American Blizzard: 32" (all-time record) 2/13: T 2/16: 2" Various T events up to 3/2: .5" 3/6-3/8: 17" 3/18-3/19: 4.5" 10/29/11, 10/29/12, and 2/8-9/13: Never forget |
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Nov 25 2011, 08:35 PM
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#2
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,413 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864 |
Last gfs run has about .50qpf and cold enough for snow for the Ct coast..slightly less amounts as you move north..
-------------------- Snow Totals Per Season:
2007-08: 21" 2008-09: 41" 2009-10: 39.5" 2010-11: 71.5" 2011-12: 14" 2012-13: 46.5" Average(since 1950) = 27.75" |
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Nov 25 2011, 10:34 PM
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#3
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,417 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
Looks good, hope it holds on the models....but we all know how this goes
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Nov 25 2011, 11:46 PM
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#4
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 20,617 Joined: 27-February 08 From: Brooklyn,NY Member No.: 14,017 |
0z GFS pops a storm near the 5th. Really nice pattern in the long range.
-------------------- Anthony
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Nov 26 2011, 01:40 AM
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#5
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 452 Joined: 19-December 10 Member No.: 24,750 |
Im liking the 00z GFS.. just need the heavier precip a little more inland
-------------------- Location: Lyndonville, VT
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Nov 26 2011, 06:56 AM
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#6
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,413 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864 |
I dont see any consistancy with the models... One day its a clipper, one day its nothing, one day its a coastal... At least with the other storms we got we had more then 2-3 runs of the same senario. Seems like each update has a different setup. Doesnt make me confident yet.
-------------------- Snow Totals Per Season:
2007-08: 21" 2008-09: 41" 2009-10: 39.5" 2010-11: 71.5" 2011-12: 14" 2012-13: 46.5" Average(since 1950) = 27.75" |
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Nov 26 2011, 08:30 AM
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#7
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,274 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Nov 26 2011, 06:56 AM)  I dont see any consistancy with the models... One day its a clipper, one day its nothing, one day its a coastal... At least with the other storms we got we had more then 2-3 runs of the same senario. Seems like each update has a different setup. Doesnt make me confident yet. This far out, we shouldn't even be looking for the set up that each run has. Until we get into the 180 hour range, the best we can do is at least make sure that there is a storm in this time frame; the set up will undoubtedly vary with each run. -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Nov 26 2011, 08:34 AM
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#8
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Nov 26 2011, 05:56 AM) I dont see any consistancy with the models... One day its a clipper, one day its nothing, one day its a coastal... At least with the other storms we got we had more then 2-3 runs of the same senario. Seems like each update has a different setup. Doesnt make me confident yet. That's one of the biggest reasons why I don't like to start long range threads. -------------------- |
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Nov 26 2011, 08:59 AM
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,413 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864 |
QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Nov 26 2011, 08:30 AM) This far out, we shouldn't even be looking for the set up that each run has. Until we get into the 180 hour range, the best we can do is at least make sure that there is a storm in this time frame; the set up will undoubtedly vary with each run. What has worked for me for a long time is to watch for consistancy even this far out... When its there,(and it has been for other storms) it happens 90% of the time... By consistancy I mean seeing something there for more then 3 times in a row... With that said just looking back, that post was for the December 3rd thread..NOT this one... My fault.. Here's the latest 4 runs for this storm... It had it for 3 runs in a row and the last run has barely any precip for everyone.. But I think it had it for the 6z run yesterday as well making it 4 runs in a row... If I see barely any precip for the next 3 runs confidence grows back to nothing happening.
-------------------- Snow Totals Per Season:
2007-08: 21" 2008-09: 41" 2009-10: 39.5" 2010-11: 71.5" 2011-12: 14" 2012-13: 46.5" Average(since 1950) = 27.75" |
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Nov 26 2011, 09:01 AM
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#10
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,032 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000' Member No.: 21,746 |
QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 26 2011, 08:34 AM) That's one of the biggest reasons why I don't like to start long range threads. I don't mind the LR threats threads - so long as we focus on peristancy not consistancy in the models. The former looks at the set up (preferably at a NHEM view level) to see if the teleconnectors, etc. are setting up a particular way. The downstream sensible weather then resloves at the situation evolves. We get into trouble when we too soon bite a solutions we'd prefer and not give credit to those that we don't (but may end up being correct). For now- with this system, I see some persistancy with the increasing heights over the W Coast/Rocky Mtn region at H5 - and a persistant signal of east coast troughiness - and a constant strong push from the Pac. Also a temporary relax of the SE rdige. Such things are not totally unfavorable for a wintery storm as those signals translate east. |
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Nov 26 2011, 09:12 AM
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#11
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
Those along the I-95 that worship JB are staying quiet about these post.
JB is throwing out hints. QUOTE day 10 n jet aimed at southern branch.major trough, big storm with very cold air Dec6-10 miss valley to n appalachians QUOTE The day 10 euro looks to me like it is getting ready for the first major disruptive winter storm of season. Mid/up miss valley to int ne
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Nov 26 2011, 09:40 AM
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,417 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Nov 26 2011, 08:30 AM) This far out, we shouldn't even be looking for the set up that each run has. Until we get into the 180 hour range agreed |
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Nov 26 2011, 09:42 AM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,417 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 26 2011, 09:01 AM) I don't mind the LR threats threads - so long as we focus on peristancy not consistancy in the models. Very well said pal....very sensible. |
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Nov 26 2011, 09:44 AM
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#14
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,417 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 26 2011, 09:12 AM) JB[/url] is throwing out hints. sounds somewhat good, of coarse as long as his feelings come to fruition that is
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Nov 26 2011, 09:58 AM
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 857 Joined: 16-November 08 From: Shickshinny,PA Member No.: 16,167 |
QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Nov 26 2011, 09:44 AM) sounds somewhat good, of coarse as long as his feelings come to fruition that is So he's not predicting the "storm of the century" with this one? 
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http://eastfork.myminicity.com <population http://eastfork.myminicity.com/ind <industry http://eastfork.myminicity.com/tra <transportation http://eastfork.myminicity.com/env <Environment |
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Nov 26 2011, 10:56 AM
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,921 Joined: 7-December 08 From: South Windsor, CT Member No.: 16,373 |
6z GFS still has the storm, although it phases too late to really affect anyone.
Bitterly cold air does come in behind it, though. -------------------- Rob
Member of the 30" Club 2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5" 2012-2013 Winter Wx predictions: Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 39.5" 50+ Degree Days since Dec. 1: 10 Winter Wx. Events: 11/7-11/9: 7" 11/27-11/29: T 11/30: T (flurries) 12/22: T (lake-effect) 12/24: 1" (clipper) 12/27: 5" (turned to slop) 12/29-12/30: 10" (resulted in 2 week snowpack) 1/16: 4" 1/21:T (norlun) 1/25-1/26: T 1/28: 2" 2/1-2/3:T 2/5: T 2013 North American Blizzard: 32" (all-time record) 2/13: T 2/16: 2" Various T events up to 3/2: .5" 3/6-3/8: 17" 3/18-3/19: 4.5" 10/29/11, 10/29/12, and 2/8-9/13: Never forget |
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Nov 26 2011, 01:02 PM
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,417 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
QUOTE(sw03181 @ Nov 26 2011, 10:56 AM) 6z GFS still has the storm, although it phases too late to really affect anyone. Bitterly cold air does come in behind it, though. I'll gladly take some "Bitterly COLD air" 
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Nov 26 2011, 01:04 PM
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#18
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,254 Joined: 4-February 10 From: Sterling, VA Member No.: 21,381 |
QUOTE(sw03181 @ Nov 26 2011, 10:56 AM) 6z GFS still has the storm, although it phases too late to really affect anyone. Bitterly cold air does come in behind it, though. Yeah, huge change in temps from a couple runs ago - really digs far south -------------------- 09-10 OCT 0.0 NOV 0.0 DEC 21.4 JAN 5.7 FEB 46.1 MAR T =73.2
10-11 OCT 0.0 NOV 0.0 DEC 1.5 JAN 10.3 FEB 0.7 MAR 0.1 =12.6 11-12 OCT 0.6 NOV 0.0 DEC T JAN 1.7 FEB 1.4 MAR T = 3.7 Current DC snow drought: 742 days without 2"+ event as of 3/6/13 12-13 OCT 0.0 NOV T DEC 2.2 JAN 1.8 FEB 1.3 MAR 3.3 = 8.6 # of snowfall events: 9........# over 1": 3........# over 2": 1........largest: 3.3 Winter Storm Warnings: 2..... #1 for 5+" (actual: 0.0") ..... #2 for 10-14" (actual: 3.3") |
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Nov 26 2011, 01:20 PM
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#19
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,921 Joined: 7-December 08 From: South Windsor, CT Member No.: 16,373 |
12z GFS now has a FROPA. Heavy rain to snow for pretty much everyone.
Average to below-average temps are behind it. -------------------- Rob
Member of the 30" Club 2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5" 2012-2013 Winter Wx predictions: Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 39.5" 50+ Degree Days since Dec. 1: 10 Winter Wx. Events: 11/7-11/9: 7" 11/27-11/29: T 11/30: T (flurries) 12/22: T (lake-effect) 12/24: 1" (clipper) 12/27: 5" (turned to slop) 12/29-12/30: 10" (resulted in 2 week snowpack) 1/16: 4" 1/21:T (norlun) 1/25-1/26: T 1/28: 2" 2/1-2/3:T 2/5: T 2013 North American Blizzard: 32" (all-time record) 2/13: T 2/16: 2" Various T events up to 3/2: .5" 3/6-3/8: 17" 3/18-3/19: 4.5" 10/29/11, 10/29/12, and 2/8-9/13: Never forget |
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Nov 26 2011, 02:26 PM
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#20
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 452 Joined: 19-December 10 Member No.: 24,750 |
QUOTE(sw03181 @ Nov 26 2011, 01:20 PM) 12z GFS now has a FROPA. Heavy rain to snow for pretty much everyone. Average to below-average temps are behind it. The only areas that do well with this run are the very far inland areas. This post has been edited by donutvampire: Nov 26 2011, 02:26 PM -------------------- Location: Lyndonville, VT
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