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> December 4-6 Plains/MW/GL/OV Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 days]
okie333
post Nov 30 2011, 11:08 PM
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00Z GFS is the latest model to hang back some energy in the SW during the previous system.

00Z NAM 84:


00Z GFS 84:


This post has been edited by okie333: Dec 3 2011, 03:35 PM


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Best model sites:

InstantWeatherMaps (GFS, NAM, RUC, fast ECMWF... Best free weather site period)
Wundermap (ECMWF... only free site with Euro QPFs)
PSU eWall (Everything else... great site for ensembles)
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snowlover2
post Dec 1 2011, 12:56 AM
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I'm guessing this is for the possible second system. 12z Euro gives me a nice snowfall if it happens that way.


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INweather
post Dec 1 2011, 01:00 AM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Dec 1 2011, 12:56 AM) *
I'm guessing this is for the possible second system. 12z Euro gives me a nice snowfall if it happens that way.


What about Marion, IN?


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snowlover2
post Dec 1 2011, 01:04 AM
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QUOTE(INweather @ Dec 1 2011, 01:00 AM) *
What about Marion, IN?


Going by what i saw on the weatherunground Euro snowfall loop, it looked like most of OH, southesat IN and northern KY get snowfall from this.


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INweather
post Dec 1 2011, 01:04 AM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Dec 1 2011, 01:04 AM) *
Going by what i saw on the weatherunground Euro snowfall loop, it looked like most of OH, southesat IN and northern KY get snowfall from this.


I am in northeast IN lol


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Snow____
post Dec 1 2011, 01:15 AM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Dec 1 2011, 02:04 AM) *
Going by what i saw on the weatherunground Euro snowfall loop, it looked like most of OH, southesat IN and northern KY get snowfall from this.

Sounds groovy, I'll take just a dusting to an inch. But if I get more I'll glady take it.


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grace
post Dec 1 2011, 01:46 AM
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I liked 0z Euro. Looks like W. Ky. gets a decent hit on that run. I have a feeling this is going to be a real tricky system.

There are actually two separate rounds of snow for many in OV.

This post has been edited by grace: Dec 1 2011, 06:09 AM
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snowlover2
post Dec 1 2011, 02:20 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Dec 1 2011, 01:46 AM) *
I liked 0z Euro. Looks like W. Ky. gets a decent hit on that run. I have a feeling this is going to be a real tricky system.

There is actually two separate rounds of snow for many in OV.


I like it too. Looks like i get a few inches from each round.


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Ilovelakeeffect
post Dec 1 2011, 06:21 AM
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Does the snow stay south of Cleveland on the Euro? If so, is there cold air behind it with LES.


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grace
post Dec 1 2011, 08:01 AM
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6z GFS

ULL ejects out of SW & at this point is over W. Ky. SLP forms in SE over S. Apps.





At this point it's similar to the 0z Euro but is weaker. But let me also add that all these systems are very confusing. Per 0z Euro & 6z GFS we are actually looking at three systems.

System #1: brings snows to midwest

System #2: is actually just another disturbance that forms and rides the frontal boundary associated with system #1. It's just hard rain with the GFS because it holds the progress of the cold air further to the west & keeps all precip in ahead of the cold air. There's some snow with this along the Mississippi River south of St. Louis on the Euro with this because the cold air makes it further east & there is some post-front precip.

System #3: is the ejection of the ULL left in the SW & SLP in SE.

Confused? laugh.gif

The 6z DGEX snowcast update


This post has been edited by grace: Dec 1 2011, 08:02 AM
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WeatherMonger
post Dec 1 2011, 08:06 AM
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Fits in here as well, from the Chicago Weather Center blog Source



QUOTE
Alaska warming a sign cold air's on the move; portends a pattern change next week with waves of frigid arctic air headed this way
 
North America's weather pattern is to undergo formidable changes in the coming week. A huge upper air high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska, is to cause the jet stream to buckle north there, then dive south into the Lower 48.  It's a common La Nina pattern which turns upper steering winds northwesterly as they blow into the Midwest, guiding colder air into the area next week.

Two important outbreaks of early season arctic air are currently indicated---the first Monday and Tuesday and a more important cold surge later next week.

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WeatherMonger
post Dec 1 2011, 08:10 AM
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Graphic to go with the above

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Gilbertfly
post Dec 1 2011, 08:26 AM
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Little blurb at the end from DVN regarding this system . . .

QUOTE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
515 AM CST THU DEC 1 2011

LLVL COLD POOL UNDER TROF AXIS
LINGERS INTO TUE WITH HIGHS POSSIBLE BEING HELD IN THE 20S CWA-WIDE.
AN OVER-RUNNING SNOW STORM MAY OCCUR NOT ALL THAT FAR OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA ACRS THE OH RVR AND TN VALLEYS ON TUE.
WILL GO DRY WITH MODIFYING TEMPS INTO WED BANKING ON THE L/W TROF
EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD APPALACHIA.


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grace
post Dec 1 2011, 08:39 AM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Dec 1 2011, 07:26 AM) *
Little blurb at the end from DVN regarding this system . . .


The overrunning snow should be the topic of this thread but we may need another thread for the ULL ejecting out of SW. These are not the same events.

By the way, here is the CFS on the ULL ejecting out of SW. Kind of close to 0z Euro & 6z GFS:



Haven't we been down this road before? wink.gif
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Gilbertfly
post Dec 1 2011, 08:40 AM
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guess its time for a little practice. . .here are a few selected images from the 0Z ECMWF for snowfall . . .

H144, H150, H156, H168. . .

Attached Image

all via Wunderground screen shots. . .there was some more snowfall per that run. . .but had to pick and choose a few as it is time to feed the two little guys! wink.gif
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Snow____
post Dec 1 2011, 08:44 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Dec 1 2011, 09:01 AM) *
6z GFS

ULL ejects out of SW & at this point is over W. Ky. SLP forms in SE over S. Apps.





At this point it's similar to the 0z Euro but is weaker. But let me also add that all these systems are very confusing. Per 0z Euro & 6z GFS we are actually looking at three systems.

System #1: brings snows to midwest

System #2: is actually just another disturbance that forms and rides the frontal boundary associated with system #1. It's just hard rain with the GFS because it holds the progress of the cold air further to the west & keeps all precip in ahead of the cold air. There's some snow with this along the Mississippi River south of St. Louis on the Euro with this because the cold air makes it further east & there is some post-front precip.

System #3: is the ejection of the ULL left in the SW & SLP in SE.

Confused? laugh.gif

The 6z DGEX snowcast update


If only I could believe the DGEX lol.
QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Dec 1 2011, 09:26 AM) *
Little blurb at the end from DVN regarding this system . . .

Sounds groovy. I'm actually getting a little excited for the potential of accumulating snow but I know better so I will keep my excitement to minimum.


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Snow____
post Dec 1 2011, 08:46 AM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Dec 1 2011, 09:40 AM) *
guess its time for a little practice. . .here are a few selected images from the 0Z ECMWF for snowfall . . .

H144, H150, H156, H168. . .

Attached Image

all via Wunderground screen shots. . .there was some more snowfall per that run. . .but had to pick and choose a few as it is time to feed the two little guys! wink.gif

Me likey that program they have at Wunderground. Could you provide me with a link when you get the time?

Looks like it gives me some decent snowfall.


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grace
post Dec 1 2011, 08:51 AM
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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Dec 1 2011, 07:46 AM) *
Me likey that program they have at Wunderground. Could you provide me with a link when you get the time?

Looks like it gives me some decent snowfall.


I'm with ya! I love that site. Here's the link. It may take a little time to figure out how to use it but not long. Scroll down until you find "Model Data" on the tabs on the right side of the page. After you click on it I think you can figure it out.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap
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SOUTH MISSOURI S...
post Dec 1 2011, 08:52 AM
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why in the world can't south central MO ever get a good hit? what happens to this thing coming across to where it shows no snow here? cold air is already in place.

it least it's down the road awhile hoping it changes... hoping it won't be another frustrating winter. We are overdue... and have been for awhile.

last winter missed two seperate two foot snows within 100 miles (one to my northwest and one to the southwest in Arkansas)
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RobB
post Dec 1 2011, 09:04 AM
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I can't show the snow through 168 Euro but I have roughly drawn what it paints. FWIW...

Do not look at the Amounts scale on the right as I did not use it.

The Blue area is 3 plus...

Grey area is 6 plus....

This is from the 0Z Euro.....

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