 December 4-6 Plains/MW/GL/OV Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 days] |
  |
 Nov 30 2011, 11:08 PM
Post
#1
|
|
 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 748 Joined: 18-May 10 From: Tulsa, OK Member No.: 22,798  |
00Z GFS is the latest model to hang back some energy in the SW during the previous system.
00Z NAM 84:  00Z GFS 84: 
This post has been edited by okie333: Dec 3 2011, 03:35 PM -------------------- Best model sites:
InstantWeatherMaps (GFS, NAM, RUC, fast ECMWF... Best free weather site period) Wundermap (ECMWF... only free site with Euro QPFs) PSU eWall (Everything else... great site for ensembles) |
 |
 
|
|
Dec 1 2011, 12:56 AM
Post
#2
|
|
 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,577 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 |
I'm guessing this is for the possible second system. 12z Euro gives me a nice snowfall if it happens that way.
-------------------- # of T-Storm Watches:2
# of Tornado Watches: # of T-Storm Warnings: # of Tornado Warnings: |
|
|
|
|
Dec 1 2011, 01:00 AM
Post
#3
|
|
 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,894 Joined: 28-February 08 From: S. Indiana Member No.: 14,041 |
QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Dec 1 2011, 12:56 AM)  I'm guessing this is for the possible second system. 12z Euro gives me a nice snowfall if it happens that way. What about Marion, IN? -------------------- Become a fan of my facebook page by searching for: "Patrick Sumner's Weather Page"
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 1 2011, 01:04 AM
Post
#4
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,577 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 |
QUOTE(INweather @ Dec 1 2011, 01:00 AM) What about Marion, IN? Going by what i saw on the weatherunground Euro snowfall loop, it looked like most of OH, southesat IN and northern KY get snowfall from this. -------------------- # of T-Storm Watches:2
# of Tornado Watches: # of T-Storm Warnings: # of Tornado Warnings: |
|
|
|
|
Dec 1 2011, 01:04 AM
Post
#5
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,894 Joined: 28-February 08 From: S. Indiana Member No.: 14,041 |
QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Dec 1 2011, 01:04 AM) Going by what i saw on the weatherunground Euro snowfall loop, it looked like most of OH, southesat IN and northern KY get snowfall from this. I am in northeast IN lol -------------------- Become a fan of my facebook page by searching for: "Patrick Sumner's Weather Page"
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 1 2011, 01:15 AM
Post
#6
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,758 Joined: 16-November 08 From: Cincinnati, OH Member No.: 16,172 |
QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Dec 1 2011, 02:04 AM) Going by what i saw on the weatherunground Euro snowfall loop, it looked like most of OH, southesat IN and northern KY get snowfall from this. Sounds groovy, I'll take just a dusting to an inch. But if I get more I'll glady take it. -------------------- Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 1 2011, 01:46 AM
Post
#7
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,426 Joined: 21-January 10 From: Paducah, Ky Member No.: 21,017 |
I liked 0z Euro. Looks like W. Ky. gets a decent hit on that run. I have a feeling this is going to be a real tricky system.
There are actually two separate rounds of snow for many in OV. This post has been edited by grace: Dec 1 2011, 06:09 AM |
|
|
|
|
Dec 1 2011, 02:20 AM
Post
#8
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,577 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 |
QUOTE(grace @ Dec 1 2011, 01:46 AM) I liked 0z Euro. Looks like W. Ky. gets a decent hit on that run. I have a feeling this is going to be a real tricky system. There is actually two separate rounds of snow for many in OV. I like it too. Looks like i get a few inches from each round. -------------------- # of T-Storm Watches:2
# of Tornado Watches: # of T-Storm Warnings: # of Tornado Warnings: |
|
|
|
|
Dec 1 2011, 06:21 AM
Post
#9
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 666 Joined: 22-February 08 From: Medina, Ohio Member No.: 13,907 |
Does the snow stay south of Cleveland on the Euro? If so, is there cold air behind it with LES.
-------------------- Hey Accuweather! Please send us our very own Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Midwest blogger. Heck, with the Lake Effect alone, our winters can be more interesting than many other locations around the country not to mention the synoptic snowfalls.
Medina, Ohio 2012-2013 Snowfall to date: 43.0" |
|
|
|
|
Dec 1 2011, 08:01 AM
Post
#10
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,426 Joined: 21-January 10 From: Paducah, Ky Member No.: 21,017 |
6z GFS
ULL ejects out of SW & at this point is over W. Ky. SLP forms in SE over S. Apps.   At this point it's similar to the 0z Euro but is weaker. But let me also add that all these systems are very confusing. Per 0z Euro & 6z GFS we are actually looking at three systems. System #1: brings snows to midwest System #2: is actually just another disturbance that forms and rides the frontal boundary associated with system #1. It's just hard rain with the GFS because it holds the progress of the cold air further to the west & keeps all precip in ahead of the cold air. There's some snow with this along the Mississippi River south of St. Louis on the Euro with this because the cold air makes it further east & there is some post-front precip. System #3: is the ejection of the ULL left in the SW & SLP in SE. Confused?  The 6z DGEX snowcast update 
This post has been edited by grace: Dec 1 2011, 08:02 AM |
|
|
|
|
Dec 1 2011, 08:06 AM
Post
#11
|
|
 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,535 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
Fits in here as well, from the Chicago Weather Center blog Source
QUOTE Alaska warming a sign cold air's on the move; portends a pattern change next week with waves of frigid arctic air headed this way North America's weather pattern is to undergo formidable changes in the coming week. A huge upper air high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska, is to cause the jet stream to buckle north there, then dive south into the Lower 48. It's a common La Nina pattern which turns upper steering winds northwesterly as they blow into the Midwest, guiding colder air into the area next week. Two important outbreaks of early season arctic air are currently indicated---the first Monday and Tuesday and a more important cold surge later next week. |
|
|
|
|
Dec 1 2011, 08:10 AM
Post
#12
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,535 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
Graphic to go with the above
 |
|
|
|
|
Dec 1 2011, 08:26 AM
Post
#13
|
|
 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,810 Joined: 15-February 08 From: Bolingbrook, IL Member No.: 13,723 |
Little blurb at the end from DVN regarding this system . . .
QUOTE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 515 AM CST THU DEC 1 2011 LLVL COLD POOL UNDER TROF AXIS LINGERS INTO TUE WITH HIGHS POSSIBLE BEING HELD IN THE 20S CWA-WIDE. AN OVER-RUNNING SNOW STORM MAY OCCUR NOT ALL THAT FAR OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA ACRS THE OH RVR AND TN VALLEYS ON TUE. WILL GO DRY WITH MODIFYING TEMPS INTO WED BANKING ON THE L/W TROF EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD APPALACHIA. |
|
|
|
|
Dec 1 2011, 08:39 AM
Post
#14
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,426 Joined: 21-January 10 From: Paducah, Ky Member No.: 21,017 |
QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Dec 1 2011, 07:26 AM) Little blurb at the end from DVN regarding this system . . . The overrunning snow should be the topic of this thread but we may need another thread for the ULL ejecting out of SW. These are not the same events. By the way, here is the CFS on the ULL ejecting out of SW. Kind of close to 0z Euro & 6z GFS:  Haven't we been down this road before? 
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 1 2011, 08:40 AM
Post
#15
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,810 Joined: 15-February 08 From: Bolingbrook, IL Member No.: 13,723 |
guess its time for a little practice. . .here are a few selected images from the 0Z ECMWF for snowfall . . .
H144, H150, H156, H168. . .  all via Wunderground screen shots. . .there was some more snowfall per that run. . .but had to pick and choose a few as it is time to feed the two little guys!
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 1 2011, 08:44 AM
Post
#16
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,758 Joined: 16-November 08 From: Cincinnati, OH Member No.: 16,172 |
QUOTE(grace @ Dec 1 2011, 09:01 AM) 6z GFS ULL ejects out of SW & at this point is over W. Ky. SLP forms in SE over S. Apps. At this point it's similar to the 0z Euro but is weaker. But let me also add that all these systems are very confusing. Per 0z Euro & 6z GFS we are actually looking at three systems. System #1: brings snows to midwest System #2: is actually just another disturbance that forms and rides the frontal boundary associated with system #1. It's just hard rain with the GFS because it holds the progress of the cold air further to the west & keeps all precip in ahead of the cold air. There's some snow with this along the Mississippi River south of St. Louis on the Euro with this because the cold air makes it further east & there is some post-front precip. System #3: is the ejection of the ULL left in the SW & SLP in SE. Confused? The 6z DGEX snowcast update If only I could believe the DGEX lol. QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Dec 1 2011, 09:26 AM) Little blurb at the end from DVN regarding this system . . . Sounds groovy. I'm actually getting a little excited for the potential of accumulating snow but I know better so I will keep my excitement to minimum. -------------------- Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 1 2011, 08:46 AM
Post
#17
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,758 Joined: 16-November 08 From: Cincinnati, OH Member No.: 16,172 |
QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Dec 1 2011, 09:40 AM) guess its time for a little practice. . .here are a few selected images from the 0Z ECMWF for snowfall . . . H144, H150, H156, H168. . . all via Wunderground screen shots. . .there was some more snowfall per that run. . .but had to pick and choose a few as it is time to feed the two little guys! Me likey that program they have at Wunderground. Could you provide me with a link when you get the time? Looks like it gives me some decent snowfall. -------------------- Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 1 2011, 08:51 AM
Post
#18
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,426 Joined: 21-January 10 From: Paducah, Ky Member No.: 21,017 |
QUOTE(Snow____ @ Dec 1 2011, 07:46 AM) Me likey that program they have at Wunderground. Could you provide me with a link when you get the time? Looks like it gives me some decent snowfall. I'm with ya! I love that site. Here's the link. It may take a little time to figure out how to use it but not long. Scroll down until you find "Model Data" on the tabs on the right side of the page. After you click on it I think you can figure it out. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap |
|
|
|
|
Dec 1 2011, 08:52 AM
Post
#19
|
|
|
Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 96 Joined: 21-November 11 Member No.: 26,186 |
why in the world can't south central MO ever get a good hit? what happens to this thing coming across to where it shows no snow here? cold air is already in place.
it least it's down the road awhile hoping it changes... hoping it won't be another frustrating winter. We are overdue... and have been for awhile. last winter missed two seperate two foot snows within 100 miles (one to my northwest and one to the southwest in Arkansas) |
|
|
|
|
Dec 1 2011, 09:04 AM
Post
#20
|
|
 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 20,783 Joined: 7-March 04 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 16 |
I can't show the snow through 168 Euro but I have roughly drawn what it paints. FWIW...
Do not look at the Amounts scale on the right as I did not use it. The Blue area is 3 plus... Grey area is 6 plus.... This is from the 0Z Euro..... This post has been edited by RobB: Dec 1 2011, 09:20 AM -------------------- |
|
|
|
|
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:
|
Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 23rd May 2013 - 11:30 AM |