Dec. 15-17 MidAtl/NE Storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-7 Days Out] Forecasts Options

[BtownWxWatcher]

GFS and ECMWF are showing a storm in this period.

[sw03181]

This storm could literally be anything. GFS wants the PNA ridge to go slightly positive in this timeframe but that's subjective from run to run. It also has the NAO dipping closer to neutral in this timeframe.

We should also pay attention to the 12/19-12/20 frame again. I've seen the GFS throw a storm in that timeframe as well (then again, when doesn't it? )
MJO about to enter Phase 5:

[WEATHERFAN100]

Well between this upcoming system and through Christmas, like Henry mentioned, theres a few potential storms looming on the models though as many people expected active pattern swings, so question is will the cold air be in placed for snow.

[Fire/Rescue]

Well between this upcoming system and through Christmas, like Henry mentioned, theres a few potential storms looming on the models though as many people expected active pattern swings, so question is will the cold air be in placed for snow.

Very good question....I am for one sure hoping so

[sw03181]

EDIT: Sorry that was for the other thread.


This post has been edited by sw03181: Dec 6 2011, 11:10 PM

[NorEaster07]

Big snowstorm Baltimore northward on the 6z and Blizzard conditions NYC north.

[BtownWxWatcher]

Big snowstorm Baltimore northward on the 6z and Blizzard conditions NYC north.

No, its not, surface temperatures are in the Upper 30s and 40s.

[Undertakerson]

No, its not, surface temperatures are in the Upper 30s and 40s.

Actual depiction at D8 not important ATM! Another system attacking - this time, what may be colder air. Some HP to the north but not much (yet) as in the Oct storm. Of course, this will change too. But the big picture H5/7 is what to look at - NOT the surface charts only for our region.

[Alwaysready126]

this projected storm is yet another indication that the pattern maybe similar to the last 2 years with regard to storm tracks

This post has been edited by Alwaysready126: Dec 7 2011, 08:06 AM

[NYCSuburbs]

this projected storm is yet another indication that the pattern maybe similar to the last 2 years with regard to storm tracks

In reality, it couldn't be more different. Last year's pattern favored coastal lows, as there was very strong -NAO/-AO blocking, but we're completely missing this blocking this year, with a +NAO/+AO. Blocking, for instance, would've helped to keep tonight's storm further east if it had been in place. The long range GFS runs over the last several days continue to mostly target the Northeast with snowstorms, which should be expected with this pattern. There can and will be a few coastals if the timing and location are supportive, but unlike last year's pattern which was favorable for coastals, this pattern strongly favors the Northeast over the Mid Atlantic.

[Alwaysready126]

In reality, it couldn't be more different. Last year's pattern favored coastal lows, as there was very strong -NAO/-AO blocking, but we're completely missing this blocking this year, with a +NAO/+AO. Blocking, for instance, would've helped to keep tonight's storm further east if it had been in place. The long range GFS runs over the last several days continue to mostly target the Northeast with snowstorms, which should be expected with this pattern. There can and will be a few coastals if the timing and location are supportive, but unlike last year's pattern which was favorable for coastals, this pattern strongly favors the Northeast over the Mid Atlantic.

I'm taking about the trajectory of the storms we've seen here in the mid atlantic. from the looks of it....it looks like energy gets transferred to a low that sits of f the coast. If there was blocking then, correct me if im wrong, these low pressure systems would end up blowing up, similar to what we've seen over the past couple of years. your point about the positive nao is well taken. until we get the nao to go negative...there isnt much hope for the MA. from what I understand however, it doesn't take much for the nado to go negative during the winter. although it's entirely possible that it won't, I find it hard to believe that it won't go negative some point over the next 3 months.

[jrdrnt]

It seems with all these storms the cold air is too little to late. Only until after these storms does the cold air come into play.

[MP - Bucks Co PA]

In reality, it couldn't be more different. Last year's pattern favored coastal lows, as there was very strong -NAO/-AO blocking, but we're completely missing this blocking this year, with a +NAO/+AO. Blocking, for instance, would've helped to keep tonight's storm further east if it had been in place. The long range GFS runs over the last several days continue to mostly target the Northeast with snowstorms, which should be expected with this pattern. There can and will be a few coastals if the timing and location are supportive, but unlike last year's pattern which was favorable for coastals, this pattern strongly favors the Northeast over the Mid Atlantic.

Here we go, 10 days out and we are already bittercasting

[Thunderblizzard]

Here we go, 10 days out and we are already bittercasting

It's not bittercasting if it's true...

[el Bunzo]

Big snowstorm Baltimore northward on the 6z and Blizzard conditions NYC north.

Looks like a rainstorm to me for all of I95.

Not only is surface warm, but 850s do not crash until storm has left the area.

[sw03181]

12z GFS is an inland runner that transfers to the coast. Rain to snow for I95. Western NY would finally get a nice snowstorm if this were to verify

My early guess on this storm is that it ends up similar to todays event, except a bit cooler. NAO looks to be about neutral during this timeframe and without the presence of a PV to maintain the cold air at the surface, a strong phase would result in either a coastal hugger or an inland/Apps runner.

[Removed_Member_Snowrider_*]

12z GFS is an inland runner that transfers to the coast. Rain to snow for I95. Western NY would finally get a nice snowstorm if this were to verify

My early guess on this storm is that it ends up similar to todays event, except a bit cooler. NAO looks to be about neutral during this timeframe and without the presence of a PV to maintain the cold air at the surface, a strong phase would result in either a coastal hugger or an inland/Apps runner.

Don't always need a polar Vortex, a nice High Pressure system to the north would do the trick too.

Snowrider.

[jrdrnt]

Toot Toot All aboard! Welcome to the train of storms going to the Lakes for December.

[psu1313]

QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Dec 7 2011, 08:11 AM)
In reality, it couldn't be more different. Last year's pattern favored coastal lows, as there was very strong -NAO/-AO blocking, but we're completely missing this blocking this year, with a +NAO/+AO. Blocking, for instance, would've helped to keep tonight's storm further east if it had been in place. The long range GFS runs over the last several days continue to mostly target the Northeast with snowstorms, which should be expected with this pattern. There can and will be a few coastals if the timing and location are supportive, but unlike last year's pattern which was favorable for coastals, this pattern strongly favors the Northeast over the Mid Atlantic.

Here we go, 10 days out and we are already bittercasting

Suburbs isn't bittercasting, he's explaining the dynamics of the pattern that's in place. Let's go to basics of meteorology. Grab yourself a ball. Now try to put a pen (softly...don't poke a hole) in your ball. Assuming you didn't jab it in it you can't do it. Now if you slide the pen along the outside of the ball the resistance is much less. In a general sense, this is what happens to Low Pressure systems in the atmosphere. A low pressure system will attack a weakness. Without blocking, the weakness is usually not on the East Coast but more towards the Apps.

This is a Very simplistic explanation but hopefully it helps you understand Burbs point a little better. Currently, we have a bad setup for EC snowstorms. It's just a current fact. This does not mean it cannot happen, nor does it mean anyone is bittercasting.

[snofan]

12z GFS is an inland runner that transfers to the coast. Rain to snow for I95. Western NY would finally get a nice snowstorm if this were to verify

My early guess on this storm is that it ends up similar to todays event, except a bit cooler. NAO looks to be about neutral during this timeframe and without the presence of a PV to maintain the cold air at the surface, a strong phase would result in either a coastal hugger or an inland/Apps runner.

I love the sound of that, but I'm sure you may not want a storm like that. It's always somebody is excited, you have another person in a different location pulling out their hair.