Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

9 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Closed TopicStart new topic
> Dec. 15-17 MidAtl/NE Storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-7 Days Out] Forecasts
BtownWxWatcher
post Dec 6 2011, 07:11 PM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,955
Joined: 3-November 08
From: Perry Hall,MD(Sometimes Bel Air)
Member No.: 16,078





GFS and ECMWF are showing a storm in this period.


--------------------
No Wishcasting,Just Forecasting
twitter: @nicksterdude010


Winter 2014-2015:Weak El Niño? Return of the Polar Vortex or Torch?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
sw03181
post Dec 6 2011, 07:30 PM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,313
Joined: 7-December 08
From: South Windsor, CT
Member No.: 16,373





This storm could literally be anything. GFS wants the PNA ridge to go slightly positive in this timeframe but that's subjective from run to run. It also has the NAO dipping closer to neutral in this timeframe.

We should also pay attention to the 12/19-12/20 frame again. I've seen the GFS throw a storm in that timeframe as well (then again, when doesn't it? rolleyes.gif)
MJO about to enter Phase 5:


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"

2013-2014 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31):
Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 47"
Actual: 38.5"


11/12: T
11/23: T (LES)
12/7: T
12/9: T
12/10: 3.0"
12/14: 6.0"
12/17: 4.0"
12/24: T (just a few flakes)
12/26: 0.5"
1/1-1/3: 7.5"
1/10: 1.0"
1/19: T
1/21-1/22: 4" (FAIL)
1/29 "HECS": T
2/3: 3"
2/5: 9.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WEATHERFAN100
post Dec 6 2011, 07:32 PM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,321
Joined: 6-February 08
From: LANCASTER PA
Member No.: 13,459





Well between this upcoming system and through Christmas, like Henry mentioned, theres a few potential storms looming on the models though as many people expected active pattern swings, so question is will the cold air be in placed for snow.


--------------------
-James
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Fire/Rescue
post Dec 6 2011, 10:58 PM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,254
Joined: 4-January 10
From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore
Member No.: 20,753





QUOTE(WEATHERFAN100 @ Dec 6 2011, 07:32 PM) *
Well between this upcoming system and through Christmas, like Henry mentioned, theres a few potential storms looming on the models though as many people expected active pattern swings, so question is will the cold air be in placed for snow.

Very good question....I am for one sure hoping so wink.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
sw03181
post Dec 6 2011, 11:09 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,313
Joined: 7-December 08
From: South Windsor, CT
Member No.: 16,373





EDIT: Sorry that was for the other thread.


This post has been edited by sw03181: Dec 6 2011, 11:10 PM


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"

2013-2014 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31):
Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 47"
Actual: 38.5"


11/12: T
11/23: T (LES)
12/7: T
12/9: T
12/10: 3.0"
12/14: 6.0"
12/17: 4.0"
12/24: T (just a few flakes)
12/26: 0.5"
1/1-1/3: 7.5"
1/10: 1.0"
1/19: T
1/21-1/22: 4" (FAIL)
1/29 "HECS": T
2/3: 3"
2/5: 9.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Dec 7 2011, 06:44 AM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,586
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864






blink.gif
Big snowstorm Baltimore northward on the 6z and Blizzard conditions NYC north.


Attached Image


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
BtownWxWatcher
post Dec 7 2011, 06:52 AM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,955
Joined: 3-November 08
From: Perry Hall,MD(Sometimes Bel Air)
Member No.: 16,078





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Dec 7 2011, 06:44 AM) *
blink.gif
Big snowstorm Baltimore northward on the 6z and Blizzard conditions NYC north.


Attached Image

No, its not, surface temperatures are in the Upper 30s and 40s.


--------------------
No Wishcasting,Just Forecasting
twitter: @nicksterdude010


Winter 2014-2015:Weak El Niño? Return of the Polar Vortex or Torch?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Dec 7 2011, 07:02 AM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,049
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(BtownWxWatcher @ Dec 7 2011, 06:52 AM) *
No, its not, surface temperatures are in the Upper 30s and 40s.

Actual depiction at D8 not important ATM! Another system attacking - this time, what may be colder air. Some HP to the north but not much (yet) as in the Oct storm. Of course, this will change too. But the big picture H5/7 is what to look at - NOT the surface charts only for our region.


--------------------
The greens of summer lushness, each turn to Autumn's blaze.
Glow now ever deeper in morning's foggy haze
Bring forth thy plate Pomona, to sustain through winter days.
- UTS
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Alwaysready126
post Dec 7 2011, 08:02 AM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 800
Joined: 16-November 11
From: Freehold, NJ
Member No.: 26,177





this projected storm is yet another indication that the pattern maybe similar to the last 2 years with regard to storm tracks

This post has been edited by Alwaysready126: Dec 7 2011, 08:06 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Dec 7 2011, 08:11 AM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,795
Joined: 29-August 08
Member No.: 15,491





QUOTE(Alwaysready126 @ Dec 7 2011, 08:02 AM) *
this projected storm is yet another indication that the pattern maybe similar to the last 2 years with regard to storm tracks

In reality, it couldn't be more different. Last year's pattern favored coastal lows, as there was very strong -NAO/-AO blocking, but we're completely missing this blocking this year, with a +NAO/+AO. Blocking, for instance, would've helped to keep tonight's storm further east if it had been in place. The long range GFS runs over the last several days continue to mostly target the Northeast with snowstorms, which should be expected with this pattern. There can and will be a few coastals if the timing and location are supportive, but unlike last year's pattern which was favorable for coastals, this pattern strongly favors the Northeast over the Mid Atlantic.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Alwaysready126
post Dec 7 2011, 08:40 AM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 800
Joined: 16-November 11
From: Freehold, NJ
Member No.: 26,177





QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Dec 7 2011, 08:11 AM) *
In reality, it couldn't be more different. Last year's pattern favored coastal lows, as there was very strong -NAO/-AO blocking, but we're completely missing this blocking this year, with a +NAO/+AO. Blocking, for instance, would've helped to keep tonight's storm further east if it had been in place. The long range GFS runs over the last several days continue to mostly target the Northeast with snowstorms, which should be expected with this pattern. There can and will be a few coastals if the timing and location are supportive, but unlike last year's pattern which was favorable for coastals, this pattern strongly favors the Northeast over the Mid Atlantic.


I'm taking about the trajectory of the storms we've seen here in the mid atlantic. from the looks of it....it looks like energy gets transferred to a low that sits of f the coast. If there was blocking then, correct me if im wrong, these low pressure systems would end up blowing up, similar to what we've seen over the past couple of years. your point about the positive nao is well taken. until we get the nao to go negative...there isnt much hope for the MA. from what I understand however, it doesn't take much for the nado to go negative during the winter. although it's entirely possible that it won't, I find it hard to believe that it won't go negative some point over the next 3 months.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jrdrnt
post Dec 7 2011, 08:57 AM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 973
Joined: 17-January 08
Member No.: 12,622





It seems with all these storms the cold air is too little to late. Only until after these storms does the cold air come into play.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MP - Bucks Co PA
post Dec 7 2011, 09:03 AM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 622
Joined: 8-January 10
From: 19067
Member No.: 20,851





QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Dec 7 2011, 08:11 AM) *
In reality, it couldn't be more different. Last year's pattern favored coastal lows, as there was very strong -NAO/-AO blocking, but we're completely missing this blocking this year, with a +NAO/+AO. Blocking, for instance, would've helped to keep tonight's storm further east if it had been in place. The long range GFS runs over the last several days continue to mostly target the Northeast with snowstorms, which should be expected with this pattern. There can and will be a few coastals if the timing and location are supportive, but unlike last year's pattern which was favorable for coastals, this pattern strongly favors the Northeast over the Mid Atlantic.



Here we go, 10 days out and we are already bittercasting unsure.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Thunderblizzard
post Dec 7 2011, 09:09 AM
Post #14




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 78
Joined: 7-November 10
From: Southington, CT
Member No.: 24,310





QUOTE(MP - Bucks Co PA @ Dec 7 2011, 09:03 AM) *
Here we go, 10 days out and we are already bittercasting unsure.gif

It's not bittercasting if it's true... mellow.gif


--------------------
2013/2014: 66"

2012/2013: 82"

2011/2012: 24"

2010/2011: 86"

Average Snowfall: 48"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
el Bunzo
post Dec 7 2011, 10:21 AM
Post #15




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 75
Joined: 25-November 08
Member No.: 16,250





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Dec 7 2011, 07:44 AM) *
blink.gif
Big snowstorm Baltimore northward on the 6z and Blizzard conditions NYC north.


Attached Image


Looks like a rainstorm to me for all of I95.

Not only is surface warm, but 850s do not crash until storm has left the area.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
sw03181
post Dec 7 2011, 12:15 PM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,313
Joined: 7-December 08
From: South Windsor, CT
Member No.: 16,373





12z GFS is an inland runner that transfers to the coast. Rain to snow for I95. Western NY would finally get a nice snowstorm if this were to verify

My early guess on this storm is that it ends up similar to todays event, except a bit cooler. NAO looks to be about neutral during this timeframe and without the presence of a PV to maintain the cold air at the surface, a strong phase would result in either a coastal hugger or an inland/Apps runner.


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"

2013-2014 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31):
Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 47"
Actual: 38.5"


11/12: T
11/23: T (LES)
12/7: T
12/9: T
12/10: 3.0"
12/14: 6.0"
12/17: 4.0"
12/24: T (just a few flakes)
12/26: 0.5"
1/1-1/3: 7.5"
1/10: 1.0"
1/19: T
1/21-1/22: 4" (FAIL)
1/29 "HECS": T
2/3: 3"
2/5: 9.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_Snowrider_*
post Dec 7 2011, 12:19 PM
Post #17







Guests








QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 7 2011, 12:15 PM) *
12z GFS is an inland runner that transfers to the coast. Rain to snow for I95. Western NY would finally get a nice snowstorm if this were to verify

My early guess on this storm is that it ends up similar to todays event, except a bit cooler. NAO looks to be about neutral during this timeframe and without the presence of a PV to maintain the cold air at the surface, a strong phase would result in either a coastal hugger or an inland/Apps runner.


Don't always need a polar Vortex, a nice High Pressure system to the north would do the trick too.

Snowrider.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jrdrnt
post Dec 7 2011, 12:25 PM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 973
Joined: 17-January 08
Member No.: 12,622





Toot Toot All aboard! Welcome to the train of storms going to the Lakes for December.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
psu1313
post Dec 7 2011, 12:46 PM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,173
Joined: 29-January 10
From: Arlington, VA
Member No.: 21,194





QUOTE(MP - Bucks Co PA @ Dec 7 2011, 09:03 AM) *
QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Dec 7 2011, 08:11 AM)
In reality, it couldn't be more different. Last year's pattern favored coastal lows, as there was very strong -NAO/-AO blocking, but we're completely missing this blocking this year, with a +NAO/+AO. Blocking, for instance, would've helped to keep tonight's storm further east if it had been in place. The long range GFS runs over the last several days continue to mostly target the Northeast with snowstorms, which should be expected with this pattern. There can and will be a few coastals if the timing and location are supportive, but unlike last year's pattern which was favorable for coastals, this pattern strongly favors the Northeast over the Mid Atlantic.

Here we go, 10 days out and we are already bittercasting unsure.gif



Suburbs isn't bittercasting, he's explaining the dynamics of the pattern that's in place. Let's go to basics of meteorology. Grab yourself a ball. Now try to put a pen (softly...don't poke a hole) in your ball. Assuming you didn't jab it in it you can't do it. Now if you slide the pen along the outside of the ball the resistance is much less. In a general sense, this is what happens to Low Pressure systems in the atmosphere. A low pressure system will attack a weakness. Without blocking, the weakness is usually not on the East Coast but more towards the Apps.

This is a Very simplistic explanation but hopefully it helps you understand Burbs point a little better. Currently, we have a bad setup for EC snowstorms. It's just a current fact. This does not mean it cannot happen, nor does it mean anyone is bittercasting.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snofan
post Dec 7 2011, 12:47 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,805
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Jericho, VT • 20 miles east of Burlington, VT
Member No.: 12,324





QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 7 2011, 12:15 PM) *
12z GFS is an inland runner that transfers to the coast. Rain to snow for I95. Western NY would finally get a nice snowstorm if this were to verify

My early guess on this storm is that it ends up similar to todays event, except a bit cooler. NAO looks to be about neutral during this timeframe and without the presence of a PV to maintain the cold air at the surface, a strong phase would result in either a coastal hugger or an inland/Apps runner.



I love the sound of that, but I'm sure you may not want a storm like that. It's always somebody is excited, you have another person in a different location pulling out their hair. laugh.gif


--------------------


Dave • Jericho, VT
Eastern Chittenden County



WINTER SEASON 2012/2013 So Far: 105"

WINTER SEASON 2011/2012: 50"

WINTER SEASON 2010/2011: 252" Epic snowstorms!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

9 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Closed TopicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 21st October 2014 - 10:08 AM