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> Dec 14th-17th Eastern Canada Winter storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-7 Days Out] Forecast
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post Dec 7 2011, 05:56 PM
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The models continue to advertise a possible Winter storm around this time frame. The exact date and time are unkown currently but once we get closer we'll know what kind of things to expect. More in my next post.

Hopefully some one can post the GFS runs from today wink.gif

This post has been edited by Snowstorms: Dec 9 2011, 11:50 AM
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bigmt
post Dec 7 2011, 06:07 PM
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Here's the 18z GFS sequence of frames between hour 180 & 186 (1AM to 7AM Dec 15th):

Attached File  gfs_namer_180_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 66.32K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gfs_namer_183_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 66.27K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gfs_namer_186_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 65.08K ) Number of downloads: 1


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Ryan45
post Dec 7 2011, 06:22 PM
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12z GFS. Too east for any action in SW Ontario. Hopefully a West trend begins.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  00z_hr228.gif ( 42.75K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  12z_hr240.gif ( 45.98K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  12z_hr252.gif ( 45.28K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  12z_hr264.gif ( 46.47K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


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an uncanny otter
post Dec 7 2011, 06:29 PM
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It's still very early. I wouldn't want to be in the bullseye of this storm yet.
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Ryan45
post Dec 7 2011, 06:32 PM
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06z GFS. Too east, however this is a nice thing to see as it's never good to be in the bulls eye this close in and there are two systems in this time frame on the 06z GFS.
This is the first system.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  06z_hr192.gif ( 47.78K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  06z_hr204.gif ( 41.04K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  06z_hr216.gif ( 42.48K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


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Ryan45
post Dec 7 2011, 06:33 PM
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Second system on the 06z GFS.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  06z_hr264.gif ( 46.97K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  06z_hr276.gif ( 48.13K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  06z_hr288.gif ( 46.66K ) Number of downloads: 1
 


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bigmt
post Dec 7 2011, 06:35 PM
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QUOTE(Ryan45 @ Dec 7 2011, 06:22 PM) *
12z GFS. Too east for any action in SW Ontario. Hopefully a West trend begins.


Hmm yeah, there's a second storm following the one I posted that could fit into this thread since it comes on the 17th. The more the merrier!
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Ryan45
post Dec 7 2011, 06:43 PM
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18z GFS ensembles
Attached File(s)
Attached File  18z_GFS_hr156.gif ( 36.37K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  18z_GFS_hr168.gif ( 37.6K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  18z_GFS_hr180.gif ( 39.34K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  18z_GFS_hr192.gif ( 36.2K ) Number of downloads: 2
 


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Ryan45
post Dec 7 2011, 08:17 PM
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Interesting for sure. It seems like multiple sites have spotted something going on.
It'll change, but take it as it is for now. Go myforecast! laugh.gif
Accuwx also has Friday night as "off and on snow".
TWN has the 18th as 3 snow flakes right now.

Attached File(s)
Attached File  dec_17.jpg ( 22.79K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  dec_17_accuwx.jpg ( 6.71K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


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gurtej101
post Dec 7 2011, 09:09 PM
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looks like the temperature is going to be factor for this one too , if it happens sad.gif
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Ryan45
post Dec 7 2011, 09:14 PM
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QUOTE(gurtej101 @ Dec 7 2011, 09:09 PM) *
looks like the temperature is going to be factor for this one too , if it happens sad.gif


That's not a final thing, especially for it being so far out.. we still have tons of time for things to change.


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ottawasnowstorm
post Dec 7 2011, 11:18 PM
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If this storm goes east of us as it appears in some of the frames, it would definitely be all snow for Ottawa so I'll be checking on this one with you guys, too. Myforecast has a bit of snow for Ottawa in this time period so let's see what happens with it as we get closer. And on a side note, this would be just in time for christmas. smile.gif
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JJ Snowlover
post Dec 7 2011, 11:41 PM
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QUOTE(ottawasnowstorm @ Dec 7 2011, 11:18 PM) *
If this storm goes east of us as it appears in some of the frames, it would definitely be all snow for Ottawa so I'll be checking on this one with you guys, too. Myforecast has a bit of snow for Ottawa in this time period so let's see what happens with it as we get closer. And on a side note, this would be just in time for christmas. smile.gif


Both these storms look good for Ottawa, let's see how they pan out... wink.gif
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markj138
post Dec 8 2011, 01:20 AM
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How the *bleep* is the east coast still getting these storms without any blocking lol
The Oz GFS takes this off the MidAtlantic now.
If we take lake affect out of the equation this year in the GTA we could be *bleep*ed.
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bigmt
post Dec 8 2011, 07:43 AM
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The 06z GFS loses the primary low moving up the Ohio Valley and the redevelops a secondary along the Mid-Atlantic coast:

Attached File  gfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 63.05K ) Number of downloads: 1


It then heads almost due east out to sea.

This is an unlikely solution. Keep in mind that originally this last storm was progged to track OTS but ended up on a much more northeasterly track through New England due to a lack of downstream blocking.
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bigmt
post Dec 8 2011, 08:09 AM
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The Euro has a different take.

00z ECMWF @ hour 192:

Attached File  f192.gif ( 109.99K ) Number of downloads: 2


Attached File  00zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif ( 67.02K ) Number of downloads: 2
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Ryan45
post Dec 8 2011, 11:36 AM
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12z GFS hour 156. Our storm looks to be a little more West than the 00z and the 06z.
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Attached File  12zgfs850mbTSLPp06156.gif ( 45.17K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


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Ryan45
post Dec 8 2011, 11:37 AM
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12z GFS Hour 162. If I'm not mistaken this run looks to be a little cooler than the 06z GFS @ Hour 168 and 174.
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Attached File  12zgfs850mbTSLPp06162.gif ( 45.44K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


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Ryan45
post Dec 8 2011, 11:38 AM
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Nice run. Temps are close but nice!
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Attached File  12zgfs850mbTSLPp06174.gif ( 44.69K ) Number of downloads: 2
 


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bigmt
post Dec 8 2011, 12:19 PM
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Yes, the 0c line at 850mb holds it's ground throughout most of ON on this run so the GFS drops some decent snow.

48-hour snowfall from the 12z GFS @ hour 228, Dec 18th:

Attached File  USA_ASNOW48_sfc_228.gif ( 33.77K ) Number of downloads: 8


One of many solutions I'm sure we're bound to see between now and then, but at least the storm is still there and the wacky OTS idea is off the table until after we've gotten our share lol.
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