 Dec. 18-21 Plains/MW/GL/OV Storm, Please Use OBS Thread |
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 Dec 9 2011, 12:18 PM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 748 Joined: 18-May 10 From: Tulsa, OK Member No.: 22,798  |
This post has been edited by okie333: Dec 17 2011, 01:22 PM -------------------- Best model sites:
InstantWeatherMaps (GFS, NAM, RUC, fast ECMWF... Best free weather site period) Wundermap (ECMWF... only free site with Euro QPFs) PSU eWall (Everything else... great site for ensembles) |
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Dec 9 2011, 12:33 PM
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#2
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,810 Joined: 15-February 08 From: Bolingbrook, IL Member No.: 13,723 |
a couple of nuggets in the prelim extended disco from the HPC...
QUOTE PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 858 AM EST FRI DEC 09 2011 VALID 12Z TUE DEC 13 2011 - 12Z FRI DEC 16 2011 THE PREEPD UPDATE STAYED WITH MOST OF THE REASONING OF THE EARLY PRELIM. HOWEVER...DAYS 3-7...WE INCREASED THE PERCENTAGE OF DETERMINISTIC ECMWF TO 70% IN THE UPDATE BLEND. THE REMAINING 30% OF OUR BLEND WAS THE NEW 00Z ECENS MEAN. THE 00Z/09 ECMWF WAS QUITE WELL DEVELOPED WITH A DAY 6 THU CA SYS SYS ITS PAST TWO RUNS. WE ARE STAYING ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED/FARTHER W SIDE OF THE 00Z SPAGHETTI PLOT ENVELOPE SINCE THAT SOLUTION IS FAVORED BY DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS ON A SHARP SUPPORTING RIDGE UPSTREAM. THIS AFFECTS MAINLY 500MB ALTHOUGH WE MAY NEED TO DEPICT A MORE ENERGETIC SURFACE LOW NEAR SRN CA IN THE FINAL AFTERNOON UPDATE. THE EARLY PRELIM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW. ... HOWEVER... REBUILDING OF A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK MAY VERY WELL IMPLY YET ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. |
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Dec 9 2011, 05:37 PM
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#3
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 266 Joined: 21-September 11 From: Wauwatosa, WI Member No.: 26,043 |
This is one of the few storms I actually think I have a shot at. It's not fun when you don't even think you have a shot at a storm from the get-go. Next week's storm already looks like another cold rain, and I'm not sure about a Christmas storm, but this one starting out a little SE gives me some hope.
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Dec 9 2011, 05:55 PM
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#4
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,271 Joined: 18-January 08 Member No.: 12,660 |
QUOTE(Wild Wisconsin Weather @ Dec 9 2011, 06:37 PM)  This is one of the few storms I actually think I have a shot at. It's not fun when you don't even think you have a shot at a storm from the get-go. Next week's storm already looks like another cold rain, and I'm not sure about a Christmas storm, but this one starting out a little SE gives me some hope. Will be suprised if this thing stays on the models being so close to the storm cutting up through MN just a few days before. |
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Dec 9 2011, 07:20 PM
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#5
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 10,976 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Columbus Member No.: 13,767 |
18z looks EXTREMELY similar to what JUST happened.....cold front that keeps everything ahead of it then a "coastal" that moves NE after it. Given the pattern we're in....I see no reason why this isnt the most viable solution at this point....unfortunately.
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Dec 9 2011, 08:30 PM
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#6
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,426 Joined: 21-January 10 From: Paducah, Ky Member No.: 21,017 |
I personally think this one has potential to be a big winter storm, if not bigger precip wise than the first one that comes through before it. However, the second one will be further south in the beginning than the first & will affect areas further east unlike the first which is a upper mid-west event.
This post has been edited by grace: Dec 10 2011, 09:31 AM |
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Dec 9 2011, 10:43 PM
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#7
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,810 Joined: 15-February 08 From: Bolingbrook, IL Member No.: 13,723 |
I really don't know where to put these nuggets so I will place it hear, they are a bit more of a general long range feel, but ultimately possibly affect this thread's system. . .feel free to send it to the proper home JD. . .
MPX. . . QUOTE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 615 PM CST FRI DEC 9 2011...UDPATE FOR AVIATION AFD .DISCUSSION... ANOTHER FACTOR WHICH CONTINUES TO LOOK INTERESTING IS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WHICH IS MORE CONDUCIVE OF AN EL NINO TYPE...THEN A LA NINA. THIS WOULD FAVOR A STRONG JET STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TRANSITION BETWEEN THESE TWO JETS MAKE FOR A UNCERTAIN FORECAST IN THE LONGER RANGE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH COULD BE DRY WITH FLUCTUATIONS OF VERY COLD AND MILD AIR FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKS. WHAT IS REALLY INTERESTING IS THE CUTOFF LOWS ACROSS THE SW U.S. WHICH IS NOT A TYPICAL LA NINA YEAR. ..JLT.. LOT. . . QUOTE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 336 PM CST FRI DEC 9 2011 .DISCUSSION... 335 PM CST DAY 7 AND BEYOND...COLDER AIR LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO START PERIOD. HOWEVER... WITH LA NINA STRENGTHENING INTO LOW END MODERATE RANGE AND ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION BOTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY...PATTERN LOOKS TO BE BECOMING MORE ACTIVE...BUT NOT ONE FAVORED TO HAVE ANY LONG DURATION OUTBREAKS OF COLD WEATHER YET. DVN. . . QUOTE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
517 PM CST FRI DEC 9 2011 AO/NAO FCSTS FROM GFS ENSEMBLE...GEM AND NOGAPS ALL TAKE DIVE TOWARD END OF PD SUPPORTIVE OF TRANSITION TO COLDER BY FRI INTO SAT BUT NOTHING FROM WHAT WE/VE SEEN AS INDICES STAY ABOVE ZERO. HAVE TO WATCH AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN ENERGY FOR ANY PCPN CHCS FRI.. FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE TO OUR NORTH. AO/NAO FCSTS BEGIN CLIMBING HEADING TOWARD 21ST OF DEC THUS IT APPEARS ANOTHER BOUT OF MODERATION IN THIS TIMEFRAME... AND SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ON TEMPS CONTINUES. OVERALL AVERAGE TEMPS LIKELY TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Dec 9 2011, 10:45 PM |
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Dec 9 2011, 10:55 PM
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#8
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,271 Joined: 18-January 08 Member No.: 12,660 |
QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Dec 9 2011, 11:43 PM) I really don't know where to put these nuggets so I will place it hear, they are a bit more of a general long range feel, but ultimately possibly affect this thread's system. . .feel free to send it to the proper home JD. . . MPX. . . LOT. . . DVN. . . I think this is the pattern this winter. No sustained cold just brief shots followed by seasonable to mild temps. By the way is this storm showing up on the Euro since Skilling seems to follow that model long range and mentioned no snowstorms showing up yet on his forecast tonight. This post has been edited by cary67: Dec 9 2011, 10:56 PM |
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Dec 9 2011, 11:38 PM
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,426 Joined: 21-January 10 From: Paducah, Ky Member No.: 21,017 |
0z GFS
 --I love the potential of this system. If everything comes together just right it could be a good one for somebody. 
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Dec 9 2011, 11:40 PM
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#10
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,426 Joined: 21-January 10 From: Paducah, Ky Member No.: 21,017 |
0z GFS
HR189  HR192 
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Dec 9 2011, 11:42 PM
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#11
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,426 Joined: 21-January 10 From: Paducah, Ky Member No.: 21,017 |
QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Dec 9 2011, 09:43 PM) I really don't know where to put these nuggets so I will place it hear, they are a bit more of a general long range feel, but ultimately possibly affect this thread's system. . .feel free to send it to the proper home JD. . . MPX. . . LOT. . . DVN. . . Could be exciting at times & just plain junkie at others. |
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Dec 10 2011, 12:01 AM
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,758 Joined: 16-November 08 From: Cincinnati, OH Member No.: 16,172 |
0z gives me some light snow showers which I wil.l gladly take
-------------------- Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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Dec 10 2011, 12:23 AM
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#13
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 266 Joined: 21-September 11 From: Wauwatosa, WI Member No.: 26,043 |
Just great.
Another rainstorm followed by suppression. This is a broken record year that I would like to forget at this point.
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Dec 10 2011, 03:01 AM
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#14
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,534 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 |
QUOTE(Wild Wisconsin Weather @ Dec 10 2011, 12:23 AM) Just great. Another rainstorm followed by suppression. This is a broken record year that I would like to forget at this point.Welcome to my world. I've gone through this the better part of the last 2 winters. About the only way i've seen snow is from clippers or lake effect. -------------------- # of T-Storm Watches:2
# of Tornado Watches: # of T-Storm Warnings: # of Tornado Warnings: |
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Dec 10 2011, 09:34 AM
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,426 Joined: 21-January 10 From: Paducah, Ky Member No.: 21,017 |
Uggghhh! That's about all I can say about the last few runs.
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Dec 10 2011, 09:49 AM
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#16
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,080 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500 |
Can't really post the images as I'm on my itouch but euro and gem show a south-central GLC, I believe.
-------------------- New blog for southern Ontario!
Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)! http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/ "Get Up-To-Date Forecasts on Upcoming weather events across South-Eastern North America!" |
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Dec 10 2011, 11:07 AM
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#17
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 266 Joined: 21-September 11 From: Wauwatosa, WI Member No.: 26,043 |
QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Dec 10 2011, 02:01 AM) Welcome to my world. I've gone through this the better part of the last 2 winters. About the only way i've seen snow is from clippers or lake effect. It's just been pent-up frustration from so much cold rain and not much convection from the spring and summer. April and May were mostly cold rain, September, October and November were as well. Now December looks like deja vu. I'm not used to the snow season getting off to such a rough start. As to what you said, I'm surprised Dayton gets lake effect. Is it from Lake Erie? This post has been edited by Wild Wisconsin Weather: Dec 10 2011, 11:08 AM |
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Dec 10 2011, 11:12 AM
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,355 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413 |
QUOTE(Wild Wisconsin Weather @ Dec 10 2011, 11:07 AM) It's just been pent-up frustration from so much cold rain and not much convection from the spring and summer. April and May were mostly cold rain, September, October and November were as well. Now December looks like deja vu. I'm not used to the snow season getting off to such a rough start. As to what you said, I'm surprised Dayton gets lake effect. Is it from Lake Erie? Our Lake effect mainly comes from Lake Michigan |
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Dec 10 2011, 12:10 PM
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#19
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,080 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500 |
12 GFS is great!
-------------------- New blog for southern Ontario!
Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)! http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/ "Get Up-To-Date Forecasts on Upcoming weather events across South-Eastern North America!" |
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Dec 10 2011, 12:23 PM
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#20
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 651 Joined: 8-January 11 From: Kingsville, Ontario, Canada Member No.: 25,028 |
QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Dec 10 2011, 12:10 PM) 12 GFS is great! I will second that for sure. Something will happen in that week maybe more than once here. 
-------------------- A picture can capture a lifetime of experiences in a single frame. Photography is the best way for us to stop forgetting the past, Weather is the best way IMO to enjoy the earth and all its glory!
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