Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

40 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Closed TopicStart new topic
> Dec. 18-21 Plains/MW/GL/OV Storm, Please Use OBS Thread
okie333
post Dec 9 2011, 12:18 PM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 771
Joined: 18-May 10
From: Tulsa, OK
Member No.: 22,798







This post has been edited by okie333: Dec 17 2011, 01:22 PM


--------------------
Best model sites:

InstantWeatherMaps (GFS, NAM, RUC, fast ECMWF... Best free weather site period)
Wundermap (ECMWF... only free site with Euro QPFs)
PSU eWall (Everything else... great site for ensembles)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Gilbertfly
post Dec 9 2011, 12:33 PM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,454
Joined: 15-February 08
From: Bolingbrook, IL
Member No.: 13,723





a couple of nuggets in the prelim extended disco from the HPC...

QUOTE
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
858 AM EST FRI DEC 09 2011

VALID 12Z TUE DEC 13 2011 - 12Z FRI DEC 16 2011

THE PREEPD UPDATE STAYED WITH MOST OF THE REASONING OF THE EARLY
PRELIM. HOWEVER...DAYS 3-7...WE INCREASED THE PERCENTAGE OF
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF TO 70% IN THE UPDATE BLEND. THE REMAINING 30%
OF OUR BLEND WAS THE NEW 00Z ECENS MEAN. THE 00Z/09 ECMWF WAS
QUITE WELL DEVELOPED WITH A DAY 6 THU CA SYS SYS ITS PAST TWO
RUNS. WE ARE STAYING ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED/FARTHER W SIDE OF THE
00Z SPAGHETTI PLOT ENVELOPE SINCE THAT SOLUTION IS FAVORED BY
DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS ON A SHARP SUPPORTING RIDGE UPSTREAM. THIS
AFFECTS MAINLY 500MB ALTHOUGH WE MAY NEED TO DEPICT A MORE
ENERGETIC SURFACE LOW NEAR SRN CA IN THE FINAL AFTERNOON UPDATE.
THE EARLY PRELIM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW.


...

HOWEVER... REBUILDING OF A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK MAY VERY WELL
IMPLY YET ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Wild Wisconsin W...
post Dec 9 2011, 05:37 PM
Post #3




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 329
Joined: 21-September 11
From: Wauwatosa, WI
Member No.: 26,043





This is one of the few storms I actually think I have a shot at. It's not fun when you don't even think you have a shot at a storm from the get-go. Next week's storm already looks like another cold rain, and I'm not sure about a Christmas storm, but this one starting out a little SE gives me some hope.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
cary67
post Dec 9 2011, 05:55 PM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,601
Joined: 18-January 08
Member No.: 12,660





QUOTE(Wild Wisconsin Weather @ Dec 9 2011, 06:37 PM) *
This is one of the few storms I actually think I have a shot at. It's not fun when you don't even think you have a shot at a storm from the get-go. Next week's storm already looks like another cold rain, and I'm not sure about a Christmas storm, but this one starting out a little SE gives me some hope.

Will be suprised if this thing stays on the models being so close to the storm cutting up through MN just a few days before.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 9 2011, 07:20 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 14,697
Joined: 17-February 08
From: Dublin, Ohio (KOSU; 25 min NW of Columbus)
Member No.: 13,767





18z looks EXTREMELY similar to what JUST happened.....cold front that keeps everything ahead of it then a "coastal" that moves NE after it. Given the pattern we're in....I see no reason why this isnt the most viable solution at this point....unfortunately.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Dec 9 2011, 08:30 PM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,142
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





I personally think this one has potential to be a big winter storm, if not bigger precip wise than the first one that comes through before it. However, the second one will be further south in the beginning than the first & will affect areas further east unlike the first which is a upper mid-west event.



This post has been edited by grace: Dec 10 2011, 09:31 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Gilbertfly
post Dec 9 2011, 10:43 PM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,454
Joined: 15-February 08
From: Bolingbrook, IL
Member No.: 13,723





I really don't know where to put these nuggets so I will place it hear, they are a bit more of a general long range feel, but ultimately possibly affect this thread's system. . .feel free to send it to the proper home JD. . .

MPX. . .
QUOTE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
615 PM CST FRI DEC 9 2011...UDPATE FOR AVIATION AFD

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER FACTOR WHICH CONTINUES TO LOOK INTERESTING IS THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN WHICH IS MORE CONDUCIVE OF AN EL NINO
TYPE...THEN A LA NINA. THIS WOULD FAVOR A STRONG JET STREAM ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE TRANSITION BETWEEN THESE TWO JETS MAKE FOR A
UNCERTAIN FORECAST IN THE LONGER RANGE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER
MIDWEST WHICH COULD BE DRY WITH FLUCTUATIONS OF VERY COLD AND MILD
AIR FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKS. WHAT IS REALLY INTERESTING IS THE
CUTOFF LOWS ACROSS THE SW U.S. WHICH IS NOT A TYPICAL LA NINA
YEAR. ..JLT..



LOT. . .
QUOTE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
336 PM CST FRI DEC 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...
335 PM CST


DAY 7 AND BEYOND...COLDER AIR LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO START PERIOD.
HOWEVER... WITH LA NINA STRENGTHENING INTO LOW END MODERATE RANGE
AND ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION BOTH EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY...PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
BECOMING MORE ACTIVE...BUT NOT ONE FAVORED TO HAVE ANY LONG DURATION
OUTBREAKS OF COLD WEATHER YET.


DVN. . .
QUOTE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
517 PM CST FRI DEC 9 2011

AO/NAO FCSTS FROM GFS ENSEMBLE...GEM AND NOGAPS ALL TAKE DIVE TOWARD END OF PD SUPPORTIVE OF TRANSITION TO COLDER BY FRI INTO SAT BUT NOTHING FROM WHAT WE/VE
SEEN AS INDICES STAY ABOVE ZERO. HAVE TO WATCH AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN ENERGY FOR ANY PCPN CHCS FRI.. FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE TO OUR
NORTH. AO/NAO FCSTS BEGIN CLIMBING HEADING TOWARD 21ST OF DEC THUS IT
APPEARS ANOTHER BOUT OF MODERATION IN THIS TIMEFRAME... AND SO THE
ROLLER COASTER RIDE ON TEMPS CONTINUES. OVERALL AVERAGE TEMPS LIKELY
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.


This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Dec 9 2011, 10:45 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
cary67
post Dec 9 2011, 10:55 PM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,601
Joined: 18-January 08
Member No.: 12,660





QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Dec 9 2011, 11:43 PM) *
I really don't know where to put these nuggets so I will place it hear, they are a bit more of a general long range feel, but ultimately possibly affect this thread's system. . .feel free to send it to the proper home JD. . .

MPX. . .
LOT. . .
DVN. . .

I think this is the pattern this winter. No sustained cold just brief shots followed by seasonable to mild temps. By the way is this storm showing up on the Euro since Skilling seems to follow that model long range and mentioned no snowstorms showing up yet on his forecast tonight.

This post has been edited by cary67: Dec 9 2011, 10:56 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Dec 9 2011, 11:38 PM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,142
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





0z GFS



--I love the potential of this system. If everything comes together just right it could be a good one for somebody. rolleyes.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Dec 9 2011, 11:40 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,142
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





0z GFS

HR189


HR192
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Dec 9 2011, 11:42 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,142
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Dec 9 2011, 09:43 PM) *
I really don't know where to put these nuggets so I will place it hear, they are a bit more of a general long range feel, but ultimately possibly affect this thread's system. . .feel free to send it to the proper home JD. . .

MPX. . .
LOT. . .
DVN. . .


Could be exciting at times & just plain junkie at others.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Snow____
post Dec 10 2011, 12:01 AM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,770
Joined: 16-November 08
From: Cincinnati, OH
Member No.: 16,172





0z gives me some light snow showers which I wil.l gladly take


--------------------
Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Wild Wisconsin W...
post Dec 10 2011, 12:23 AM
Post #13




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 329
Joined: 21-September 11
From: Wauwatosa, WI
Member No.: 26,043





Just great. rolleyes.gif Another rainstorm followed by suppression. This is a broken record year that I would like to forget at this point.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Dec 10 2011, 03:01 AM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,709
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





QUOTE(Wild Wisconsin Weather @ Dec 10 2011, 12:23 AM) *
Just great. rolleyes.gif Another rainstorm followed by suppression. This is a broken record year that I would like to forget at this point.


Welcome to my world. I've gone through this the better part of the last 2 winters. About the only way i've seen snow is from clippers or lake effect.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:6

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:5

# of Tornado Warnings:0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Dec 10 2011, 09:34 AM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,142
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





Uggghhh! That's about all I can say about the last few runs.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Torontoweather
post Dec 10 2011, 09:49 AM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,529
Joined: 18-October 09
From: Toronto, Ontario
Member No.: 19,500





Can't really post the images as I'm on my itouch but euro and gem show a south-central GLC, I believe.


--------------------
New blog for southern Ontario!
Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)!
http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/

"Get Up-To-Date Forecasts on Upcoming weather events across South-Eastern North America!"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Wild Wisconsin W...
post Dec 10 2011, 11:07 AM
Post #17




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 329
Joined: 21-September 11
From: Wauwatosa, WI
Member No.: 26,043





QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Dec 10 2011, 02:01 AM) *
Welcome to my world. I've gone through this the better part of the last 2 winters. About the only way i've seen snow is from clippers or lake effect.


It's just been pent-up frustration from so much cold rain and not much convection from the spring and summer. April and May were mostly cold rain, September, October and November were as well. Now December looks like deja vu. I'm not used to the snow season getting off to such a rough start. As to what you said, I'm surprised Dayton gets lake effect. Is it from Lake Erie?

This post has been edited by Wild Wisconsin Weather: Dec 10 2011, 11:08 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Juniorrr
post Dec 10 2011, 11:12 AM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,829
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





QUOTE(Wild Wisconsin Weather @ Dec 10 2011, 11:07 AM) *
It's just been pent-up frustration from so much cold rain and not much convection from the spring and summer. April and May were mostly cold rain, September, October and November were as well. Now December looks like deja vu. I'm not used to the snow season getting off to such a rough start. As to what you said, I'm surprised Dayton gets lake effect. Is it from Lake Erie?

Our Lake effect mainly comes from Lake Michigan
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Torontoweather
post Dec 10 2011, 12:10 PM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,529
Joined: 18-October 09
From: Toronto, Ontario
Member No.: 19,500





12 GFS is great!


--------------------
New blog for southern Ontario!
Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)!
http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/

"Get Up-To-Date Forecasts on Upcoming weather events across South-Eastern North America!"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
owensnow
post Dec 10 2011, 12:23 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 818
Joined: 8-January 11
From: Kingsville, Ontario, Canada
Member No.: 25,028





QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Dec 10 2011, 12:10 PM) *
12 GFS is great!



I will second that for sure. Something will happen in that week maybe more than once here. wink.gif


--------------------
A picture can capture a lifetime of experiences in a single frame. Photography is the best way for us to stop forgetting the past, Weather is the best way IMO to enjoy the earth and all its glory!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

40 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Closed TopicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 2nd October 2014 - 03:24 AM