 Dec. 29-30th MidAtl/NE Storm, Cogination: Long Range [8-15 Days Out Forecast] |
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 Dec 15 2011, 12:12 PM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 3,904 Joined: 19-December 08 From: Mercerville, NJ Member No.: 16,588  |
Checked today's 12z GFS run and it has something interesting for this timeframe:
336hr:  348hr:  360hr:  Still very far out but something to watch. 
This post has been edited by LUCC: Dec 15 2011, 12:38 PM --------------------  |
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Dec 15 2011, 12:13 PM
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#2
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
A reminder that Raleighwx does not allow dynamic posting. Please take a screenshot and attach or utilize the instantweathermaps.com option.
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Dec 15 2011, 12:17 PM
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 3,904 Joined: 19-December 08 From: Mercerville, NJ Member No.: 16,588 |
QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 15 2011, 12:13 PM)  A reminder that Raleighwx does not allow dynamic posting. Please take a screenshot and attach or utilize the instantweathermaps.com option. I fixed it, keep forgetting Raleigh doesn't allow hotlinking. 
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Dec 15 2011, 12:18 PM
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#4
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,607 Joined: 5-December 08 From: Sussex, NJ Member No.: 16,359 |
QUOTE(LUCC @ Dec 15 2011, 12:12 PM) Checked today's 12z GFS run and it has something interesting for this timeframe: 336hr:  348hr:  360hr:  Still very far out but something to watch. Remote Linking Disabled. There seems to be some kind of cruel irony at play here. We cant even get a chance for snow to look good on paper. This post has been edited by Miller A: Dec 15 2011, 12:20 PM -------------------- 11/07/12 2.50" Miller A
11/27/12 4.00" Wantage-Trained Spotter 12/24/12 1.00" Wantage-Trained Spotter 12/26/12 6.00" Miller A 12/29/12 4.75" Miller A 01/16/13 4.25" Miller A 01/21/13 0.20" Wantage-Trained Spotter 01/25/13 0.30" Wantage-Trained Spotter 01/28/13 0.80" Wantage-Trained Spotter 02/03/13 1.00" Miller A 02/05/13 1.00" Wantage-Trained Spotter 02/08/13 9.00" Miller A 03/07/13 5.00" Miller A 03/16/13 1.20" Wantage-Trained Spotter 03/18/13 5.00" Miller A TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00" TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05" TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40" TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00" |
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Dec 15 2011, 12:19 PM
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#5
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 3,904 Joined: 19-December 08 From: Mercerville, NJ Member No.: 16,588 |
QUOTE(Miller A @ Dec 15 2011, 12:18 PM) Remote Linking Disabled. There seems to be some kind of cruel irony at play here. Should be fixed..... -------------------- |
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Dec 15 2011, 12:50 PM
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#6
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,921 Joined: 7-December 08 From: South Windsor, CT Member No.: 16,373 |
I can't believe we have a thread already made for a storm thats 2+ weeks away. I guess we're really desperate for snow this year
-------------------- Rob
Member of the 30" Club 2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5" 2012-2013 Winter Wx predictions: Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 39.5" 50+ Degree Days since Dec. 1: 10 Winter Wx. Events: 11/7-11/9: 7" 11/27-11/29: T 11/30: T (flurries) 12/22: T (lake-effect) 12/24: 1" (clipper) 12/27: 5" (turned to slop) 12/29-12/30: 10" (resulted in 2 week snowpack) 1/16: 4" 1/21:T (norlun) 1/25-1/26: T 1/28: 2" 2/1-2/3:T 2/5: T 2013 North American Blizzard: 32" (all-time record) 2/13: T 2/16: 2" Various T events up to 3/2: .5" 3/6-3/8: 17" 3/18-3/19: 4.5" 10/29/11, 10/29/12, and 2/8-9/13: Never forget |
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Dec 15 2011, 01:14 PM
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#7
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 3,904 Joined: 19-December 08 From: Mercerville, NJ Member No.: 16,588 |
QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 15 2011, 12:50 PM) I can't believe we have a thread already made for a storm thats 2+ weeks away. I guess we're really desperate for snow this year It just makes the 8-15 day long range criteria.
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Dec 16 2011, 09:53 AM
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#8
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,417 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 15 2011, 12:50 PM) I can't believe we have a thread already made for a storm thats 2+ weeks away. I guess we're really desperate for snow this year Happens alot during the winter as long at the potential time frame falls inside the 8-15 day stretch. |
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Dec 16 2011, 12:19 PM
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 3,904 Joined: 19-December 08 From: Mercerville, NJ Member No.: 16,588 |
Yes, yes it does indeed happen all the time in winter.
12z GFS 288hr:  300hr: 
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Dec 16 2011, 04:40 PM
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#10
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,051 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000' Member No.: 21,746 |
Good thing the models stop at 2 weeks (GFS) or in winter, there would be threads for January already
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Dec 16 2011, 05:10 PM
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#11
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,282 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 16 2011, 04:40 PM) Good thing the models stop at 2 weeks (GFS) or in winter, there would be threads for January already We could go with the terribly unreliable and pointless CFS and open a thread for February 18 I would've gone with January, but this was the only notable Mid Atlantic snowstorm that showed up on the CFS for the entire winter, not that it matters anyway since we all know how bad this model is
-------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Dec 17 2011, 08:11 PM
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#12
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,254 Joined: 4-February 10 From: Sterling, VA Member No.: 21,381 |
What exactly do the accuweather 15 day extended forecasts go off of? I was under the impression that it was primarily the GFS - however regardless of all the MidAtl/NE storm threads we've had this year - it's never showed even the possibility of any of them in my actual forecast (and so far I suppose that's been accurate haha) however this "new years" storm has been on there for a couple days now (it's a bit later now).
I know it's so far out that it's ridiculous to talk about - BUT I'm curious as to why whatever model my extended forecast uses seems to have more faith in this storm than any of the others so far this season. -------------------- 09-10 OCT 0.0 NOV 0.0 DEC 21.4 JAN 5.7 FEB 46.1 MAR T =73.2
10-11 OCT 0.0 NOV 0.0 DEC 1.5 JAN 10.3 FEB 0.7 MAR 0.1 =12.6 11-12 OCT 0.6 NOV 0.0 DEC T JAN 1.7 FEB 1.4 MAR T = 3.7 Current DC snow drought: 742 days without 2"+ event as of 3/6/13 12-13 OCT 0.0 NOV T DEC 2.2 JAN 1.8 FEB 1.3 MAR 3.3 = 8.6 # of snowfall events: 9........# over 1": 3........# over 2": 1........largest: 3.3 Winter Storm Warnings: 2..... #1 for 5+" (actual: 0.0") ..... #2 for 10-14" (actual: 3.3") |
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Dec 17 2011, 11:14 PM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,417 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
QUOTE(EstorilM @ Dec 17 2011, 08:11 PM) What exactly do the accuweather 15 day extended forecasts go off of? I was under the impression that it was primarily the GFS - however regardless of all the MidAtl/NE storm threads we've had this year - it's never showed even the possibility of any of them in my actual forecast (and so far I suppose that's been accurate haha) however this "new years" storm has been on there for a couple days now (it's a bit later now). I know it's so far out that it's ridiculous to talk about - BUT I'm curious as to why whatever model my extended forecast uses seems to have more faith in this storm than any of the others so far this season. Yea that's what I have always been under the impression of, meaning the 15 day Accu-Wx extended is computer generated from the GFS data. |
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Dec 18 2011, 02:18 PM
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#14
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,051 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000' Member No.: 21,746 |
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Dec 18 2011, 02:30 PM
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#15
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,033 Joined: 28-February 08 From: Albany, NY Member No.: 14,040 |
Different view of the 12z ECM
-------------------- KSYR Statistics Least Snowiest Winter 50.6" (2011-2012) Snowiest Winter 192.1" (1992-1993) www.myweatherman.com |
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Dec 18 2011, 02:38 PM
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
We know that the performance of the models so far will push the Euro solution back a couple of days fitting inside the thread dates.
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Dec 18 2011, 03:06 PM
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 723 Joined: 16-December 08 From: binghamton ny Member No.: 16,505 |
QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Dec 18 2011, 12:14 AM) Yea that's what I have always been under the impression of, meaning the 15 day Accu-Wx extended is computer generated from the GFS data. It literally changes every day. It can't be trusted can it? |
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Dec 18 2011, 04:13 PM
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,417 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
QUOTE(mulligan @ Dec 18 2011, 03:06 PM) It literally changes every day. It can't be trusted can it? Not really, as I never even use the Accu-Wx 15 day as a forecast because it does indeed change so often. Now when I do reference it, it's for nothing more then an overall weather pattern outlook, meaning for primarily temperature potentials for a given time frame. |
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Dec 18 2011, 07:36 PM
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#19
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,445 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864 |
LC
QUOTE Since the American model suite (the GFS equation and its variants) did not initialize the virulent subtropical jet stream moving out of the Pacific Ocean, that prediction does not seem viable. Indeed, I used a combination of the European and Canadian versions, which do a better job of detecting the unusual set-up for a La Nina episode. A typical -ENSO scenario does not involve an active southern branch. We should see another important storm on Thursday, and possibly a fairly serious disturbance affecting the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard around the New Year's weekend.
-------------------- Snow Totals Per Season:
2007-08: 21" 2008-09: 41" 2009-10: 39.5" 2010-11: 71.5" 2011-12: 14" 2012-13: 46.5" Average(since 1950) = 27.75" |
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 Dec 18 2011, 10:41 PM
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#20
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,690 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Mount Vernon, NY Member No.: 12,006 |
QUOTE(SyracuseSnow @ Dec 18 2011, 02:30 PM) Different view of the 12z ECM Oooooo....so close. The displaced 50/50 Low and the HP over Southeastern Canada just messed up this chance for a true I-95/I-81 Snowstorm. Otherwise, probably a mixture on this run with occasional Snow/Sleet at times in this run for N/W of I-95 at Virginia and Maryland. -------------------- CURRENT IEM/OEM SET: Meelec M6(MSRP $49.99), VSonic GR06 (MSRP $49.99), Meelec CC51(MSRP $80), Beyerdynamic DTX 910 (MSRP $89.99), Future Sonics Atrio X (MSRP $99.99),Ultrasone HFI-450 (MSRP $119.99), JVC HA-FXT90 (MSRP $135.00)
SOURCE: Cowon J3 8GB DAP (WHT)+Fiio E6 Amp w/FilmPro 16GB MicroSD Card Class 10 To learn more about Sound Frequency: http://www.independentrecording.net/irn/re...ain_display.htm If you need help with choosing the right IEMs (In Ear Monitors) http://www.head-fi.org/forum/thread/478568...-ie-added-05-20 |
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