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> Dec. 29-30th MidAtl/NE Storm, Cogination: Long Range [8-15 Days Out Forecast]
LUCC
post Dec 15 2011, 12:12 PM
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Checked today's 12z GFS run and it has something interesting for this timeframe:

336hr:


348hr:


360hr:



Still very far out but something to watch. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by LUCC: Dec 15 2011, 12:38 PM


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Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62"
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jdrenken
post Dec 15 2011, 12:13 PM
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A reminder that Raleighwx does not allow dynamic posting. Please take a screenshot and attach or utilize the instantweathermaps.com option.


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LUCC
post Dec 15 2011, 12:17 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 15 2011, 12:13 PM) *
A reminder that Raleighwx does not allow dynamic posting. Please take a screenshot and attach or utilize the instantweathermaps.com option.

I fixed it, keep forgetting Raleigh doesn't allow hotlinking. dry.gif


--------------------
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62"
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Miller A
post Dec 15 2011, 12:18 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Dec 15 2011, 12:12 PM) *
Checked today's 12z GFS run and it has something interesting for this timeframe:

336hr:


348hr:


360hr:

Still very far out but something to watch. tongue.gif



Remote Linking Disabled. There seems to be some kind of cruel irony at play here. We cant even get a chance for snow to look good on paper.

This post has been edited by Miller A: Dec 15 2011, 12:20 PM


--------------------


FINAL
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"
TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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LUCC
post Dec 15 2011, 12:19 PM
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QUOTE(Miller A @ Dec 15 2011, 12:18 PM) *
Remote Linking Disabled. There seems to be some kind of cruel irony at play here.

Should be fixed.....


--------------------
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62"
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sw03181
post Dec 15 2011, 12:50 PM
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I can't believe we have a thread already made for a storm thats 2+ weeks away. I guess we're really desperate for snow this year laugh.gif


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"

2013-2014 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31):
Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 47"
Actual: 38.5"


11/12: T
11/23: T (LES)
12/7: T
12/9: T
12/10: 3.0"
12/14: 6.0"
12/17: 4.0"
12/24: T (just a few flakes)
12/26: 0.5"
1/1-1/3: 7.5"
1/10: 1.0"
1/19: T
1/21-1/22: 4" (FAIL)
1/29 "HECS": T
2/3: 3"
2/5: 9.5"
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LUCC
post Dec 15 2011, 01:14 PM
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QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 15 2011, 12:50 PM) *
I can't believe we have a thread already made for a storm thats 2+ weeks away. I guess we're really desperate for snow this year laugh.gif

It just makes the 8-15 day long range criteria. laugh.gif


--------------------
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62"
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Fire/Rescue
post Dec 16 2011, 09:53 AM
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QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 15 2011, 12:50 PM) *
I can't believe we have a thread already made for a storm thats 2+ weeks away. I guess we're really desperate for snow this year laugh.gif

Happens alot during the winter as long at the potential time frame falls inside the 8-15 day stretch.
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LUCC
post Dec 16 2011, 12:19 PM
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Yes, yes it does indeed happen all the time in winter. laugh.gif

12z GFS
288hr:


300hr:


--------------------
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62"
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Undertakerson
post Dec 16 2011, 04:40 PM
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Good thing the models stop at 2 weeks (GFS) or in winter, there would be threads for January already laugh.gif laugh.gif


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Summer has come and passed...wake me up, when September ends.
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NYCSuburbs
post Dec 16 2011, 05:10 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 16 2011, 04:40 PM) *
Good thing the models stop at 2 weeks (GFS) or in winter, there would be threads for January already laugh.gif laugh.gif

We could go with the terribly unreliable and pointless CFS and open a thread for February 18 laugh.gif

I would've gone with January, but this was the only notable Mid Atlantic snowstorm that showed up on the CFS for the entire winter, not that it matters anyway since we all know how bad this model is laugh.gif
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EstorilM
post Dec 17 2011, 08:11 PM
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What exactly do the accuweather 15 day extended forecasts go off of? I was under the impression that it was primarily the GFS - however regardless of all the MidAtl/NE storm threads we've had this year - it's never showed even the possibility of any of them in my actual forecast (and so far I suppose that's been accurate haha) however this "new years" storm has been on there for a couple days now (it's a bit later now).

I know it's so far out that it's ridiculous to talk about - BUT I'm curious as to why whatever model my extended forecast uses seems to have more faith in this storm than any of the others so far this season.


--------------------
09-10 OCT 0.0 NOV 0.0 DEC 21.4 JAN 5.7 FEB 46.1 MAR T =73.2
10-11 OCT 0.0 NOV 0.0 DEC 1.5 JAN 10.3 FEB 0.7 MAR 0.1 =12.6
11-12 OCT 0.6 NOV 0.0 DEC T JAN 1.7 FEB 1.4 MAR T = 3.7
*working on last years stats and sig update
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Fire/Rescue
post Dec 17 2011, 11:14 PM
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QUOTE(EstorilM @ Dec 17 2011, 08:11 PM) *
What exactly do the accuweather 15 day extended forecasts go off of? I was under the impression that it was primarily the GFS - however regardless of all the MidAtl/NE storm threads we've had this year - it's never showed even the possibility of any of them in my actual forecast (and so far I suppose that's been accurate haha) however this "new years" storm has been on there for a couple days now (it's a bit later now).

I know it's so far out that it's ridiculous to talk about - BUT I'm curious as to why whatever model my extended forecast uses seems to have more faith in this storm than any of the others so far this season.

Yea that's what I have always been under the impression of, meaning the 15 day Accu-Wx extended is computer generated from the GFS data.
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Undertakerson
post Dec 18 2011, 02:18 PM
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Attached Image


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0..../ecmwfloop.html


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SyracuseSnow
post Dec 18 2011, 02:30 PM
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Different view of the 12z ECM
Attached Image


--------------------
KSYR Statistics
Least Snowiest Winter 50.6" (2011-2012)
Snowiest Winter 192.1" (1992-1993)
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jdrenken
post Dec 18 2011, 02:38 PM
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We know that the performance of the models so far will push the Euro solution back a couple of days fitting inside the thread dates.


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mulligan
post Dec 18 2011, 03:06 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Dec 18 2011, 12:14 AM) *
Yea that's what I have always been under the impression of, meaning the 15 day Accu-Wx extended is computer generated from the GFS data.



It literally changes every day. It can't be trusted can it?
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Fire/Rescue
post Dec 18 2011, 04:13 PM
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QUOTE(mulligan @ Dec 18 2011, 03:06 PM) *
It literally changes every day. It can't be trusted can it?

Not really, as I never even use the Accu-Wx 15 day as a forecast because it does indeed change so often. Now when I do reference it, it's for nothing more then an overall weather pattern outlook, meaning for primarily temperature potentials for a given time frame.
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NorEaster07
post Dec 18 2011, 07:36 PM
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LC

QUOTE
Since the American model suite (the GFS equation and its variants) did not initialize the virulent subtropical jet stream moving out of the Pacific Ocean, that prediction does not seem viable. Indeed, I used a combination of the European and Canadian versions, which do a better job of detecting the unusual set-up for a La Nina episode. A typical -ENSO scenario does not involve an active southern branch. We should see another important storm on Thursday, and possibly a fairly serious disturbance affecting the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard around the New Year's weekend.


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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Niyologist
post Dec 18 2011, 10:41 PM
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QUOTE(SyracuseSnow @ Dec 18 2011, 02:30 PM) *
Different view of the 12z ECM
Attached Image


Oooooo....so close. The displaced 50/50 Low and the HP over Southeastern Canada just messed up this chance for a true I-95/I-81 Snowstorm. Otherwise, probably a mixture on this run with occasional Snow/Sleet at times in this run for N/W of I-95 at Virginia and Maryland.


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CURRENT IEM/OEM SET: VSonic GR06 (MSRP $59.99), MEElec M-DUO (MSRP $79.99), Beyerdynamic DTX-910 (MSRP $79.99), Ultrasone HFI-450 (MSRP $119.99), JVC HA-FXT90 (MSRP $135.00)

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