Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

6 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Closed TopicStart new topic
> Dec. 31-Jan. 3 MidAtl/NE Clipper, Please Post In OBS Thread
sw03181
post Dec 22 2011, 01:17 PM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,313
Joined: 7-December 08
From: South Windsor, CT
Member No.: 16,373





Yesterdays 18z GFS:


0z GFS:


6z GFS:


12z GFS:


This has the potential to be the only legit chance at accumulating snow for anyone from Richmond to Boston for a long time. Hopefully the models thread the needle on this one.


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"

2013-2014 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31):
Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 47"
Actual: 38.5"


11/12: T
11/23: T (LES)
12/7: T
12/9: T
12/10: 3.0"
12/14: 6.0"
12/17: 4.0"
12/24: T (just a few flakes)
12/26: 0.5"
1/1-1/3: 7.5"
1/10: 1.0"
1/19: T
1/21-1/22: 4" (FAIL)
1/29 "HECS": T
2/3: 3"
2/5: 9.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Fire/Rescue
post Dec 22 2011, 01:30 PM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,244
Joined: 4-January 10
From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore
Member No.: 20,753





QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 22 2011, 01:17 PM) *
Yesterdays 18z GFS:


0z GFS:


6z GFS:


12z GFS:


This has the potential to be the only legit chance at accumulating snow for anyone from Richmond to Boston for a long time. Hopefully the models thread the needle on this one.

Bring it on, now the question remains if we do indeed see this clipper come to fruition....would the current modeling be cold enough to support "Snow" in the middle Atlantic 95 corridor?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_md1_*
post Dec 22 2011, 08:24 PM
Post #3







Guests








Models have to many problems getting any storm right at the moment. I would not hold my breath especially this far out.

Warm temps and lots of rain on the way went ahead put seed down for early spring crops. rolleyes.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WEATHERFAN100
post Dec 22 2011, 08:28 PM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,311
Joined: 6-February 08
From: LANCASTER PA
Member No.: 13,459





QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Dec 22 2011, 01:30 PM) *
Bring it on, now the question remains if we do indeed see this clipper come to fruition....would the current modeling be cold enough to support "Snow" in the middle Atlantic 95 corridor?

Well usually clippers are just a light touch of snow for much of the region, unless it bombs out for the Northeast. With that being said, clippers usually also make there own cold air or have enough cold air on its own to run on. While this may be case as we get closer, they can also fizzle out as we all know. Gunna be long tracking this one the way the models have been acting!


--------------------
-James

Winter 2013-2014:
December: 12.15"
January:
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Kitagrl
post Dec 22 2011, 09:58 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 693
Joined: 22-December 10
From: Lower Bucks, PA
Member No.: 24,797





QUOTE(md1 @ Dec 22 2011, 09:24 PM) *
Warm temps and lots of rain on the way went ahead put seed down for early spring crops. rolleyes.gif


ROFL!!!!!!

I couldn't believe I was out shopping today without a coat on December 22....


--------------------
Midwest transplant always hoping for exciting weather in Philly....
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_md1_*
post Dec 22 2011, 10:12 PM
Post #6







Guests








QUOTE(Kitagrl @ Dec 22 2011, 09:58 PM) *
ROFL!!!!!!

I couldn't believe I was out shopping today without a coat on December 22....



The wild thing is we've had things like this happen before were 60's show up and then all of a sudden cold hits with heavy snow. Even the mets couldn't predict the event.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Dec 22 2011, 10:15 PM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,795
Joined: 29-August 08
Member No.: 15,491





QUOTE(md1 @ Dec 22 2011, 08:24 PM) *
Models have to many problems getting any storm right at the moment. I would not hold my breath especially this far out.

Warm temps and lots of rain on the way went ahead put seed down for early spring crops. rolleyes.gif

The pattern for now is warm, but the bolded part just seems like a complete winter cancel... I know the pattern right now is far from what we'd want for cold and snow, but all you have to do is to check the long range threads, both here and in other places - there's more and more signs showing up that although still not certain and not a high probability yet, the pattern change could take place towards mid January. It won't be a cold/snowy winter for us, but the cold and snow will get here at some point, so going on a path expecting every storm to bring rain and warmth this winter will bring some surprises later on in the winter.

QUOTE(Kitagrl @ Dec 22 2011, 09:58 PM) *
ROFL!!!!!!

I couldn't believe I was out shopping today without a coat on December 22....

I went out with a t-shirt today for the... I don't know how many days it was warm enough for me to go out with a t-shirt this month since I lost count laugh.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 22 2011, 11:40 PM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 14,697
Joined: 17-February 08
From: Dublin, Ohio (KOSU; 25 min NW of Columbus)
Member No.: 13,767





this looks to be about the most potential on the boards right now
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
sw03181
post Dec 22 2011, 11:47 PM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,313
Joined: 7-December 08
From: South Windsor, CT
Member No.: 16,373





The 0z GFS now has two clippers in this timeframe. The first one tracks over VT/NH and the second one tracks SW through PA and VA, ejects off the VA coast and then bombs out and brushes SNE.

The plot thickens... rolleyes.gif


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"

2013-2014 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31):
Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 47"
Actual: 38.5"


11/12: T
11/23: T (LES)
12/7: T
12/9: T
12/10: 3.0"
12/14: 6.0"
12/17: 4.0"
12/24: T (just a few flakes)
12/26: 0.5"
1/1-1/3: 7.5"
1/10: 1.0"
1/19: T
1/21-1/22: 4" (FAIL)
1/29 "HECS": T
2/3: 3"
2/5: 9.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Dec 23 2011, 06:28 AM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,974
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
Member No.: 21,746





6z has more of a look of a Miller B type system with energy transfer to the coast and blowing up through New England Hr 228-240. The first such of a couple towards the end of the longer range.

Hey - there's a monster storm brewing on the 370Hr range. Let's open a thread - laugh.gif laugh.gif rolleyes.gif





--------------------
Summer has come and passed...wake me up, when September ends.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JrNOVAMet
post Dec 23 2011, 09:34 AM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 672
Joined: 3-February 10
From: Manassas, VA
Member No.: 21,343





QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 22 2011, 11:47 PM) *
The 0z GFS now has two clippers in this timeframe. The first one tracks over VT/NH and the second one tracks SW through PA and VA, ejects off the VA coast and then bombs out and brushes SNE.

The plot thickens... rolleyes.gif


Today's GFS fantasy runs are definitely something to keep an eye out for.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
sw03181
post Dec 23 2011, 11:09 AM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,313
Joined: 7-December 08
From: South Windsor, CT
Member No.: 16,373





QUOTE(JrNOVAMet @ Dec 23 2011, 09:34 AM) *
Today's GFS fantasy runs are definitely something to keep an eye out for.

Yea, there's a couple out there, at hours 300 and 372, but don't get your hopes up just yet. But at least the pattern looks more stormy.


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"

2013-2014 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31):
Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 47"
Actual: 38.5"


11/12: T
11/23: T (LES)
12/7: T
12/9: T
12/10: 3.0"
12/14: 6.0"
12/17: 4.0"
12/24: T (just a few flakes)
12/26: 0.5"
1/1-1/3: 7.5"
1/10: 1.0"
1/19: T
1/21-1/22: 4" (FAIL)
1/29 "HECS": T
2/3: 3"
2/5: 9.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
sw03181
post Dec 23 2011, 11:51 AM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,313
Joined: 7-December 08
From: South Windsor, CT
Member No.: 16,373





The 12z GFS looks a bit lost. It has three pieces of energy to work with: The first clipper, which gets held back, the disturbance in the GOM, and then another clipper behind the first one. On the past three runs, the GFS has been trying to figure out which of these disturbances to key in on.

This post has been edited by sw03181: Dec 23 2011, 11:51 AM


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"

2013-2014 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31):
Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 47"
Actual: 38.5"


11/12: T
11/23: T (LES)
12/7: T
12/9: T
12/10: 3.0"
12/14: 6.0"
12/17: 4.0"
12/24: T (just a few flakes)
12/26: 0.5"
1/1-1/3: 7.5"
1/10: 1.0"
1/19: T
1/21-1/22: 4" (FAIL)
1/29 "HECS": T
2/3: 3"
2/5: 9.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LoveNYCSnow
post Dec 23 2011, 12:29 PM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 25,904
Joined: 8-January 09
From: Ulster County, NY
Member No.: 16,816





QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 23 2011, 11:09 AM) *
Yea, there's a couple out there, at hours 300 and 372, but don't get your hopes up just yet. But at least the pattern looks more stormy.


Even though fantasy storms usually dont pan out, they are probably a good sign as the GFS didn't even show fantasy snowstorms for the east in December. The GFS also shows temps in the 30s and 40s over the next few weeks as opposed to 50s and 60s. Baby steps maybe toward an actual winter?


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
sw03181
post Dec 23 2011, 01:21 PM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,313
Joined: 7-December 08
From: South Windsor, CT
Member No.: 16,373





Taunton has this event:
QUOTE
MAY SEE A WEEKEND CLIPPER LOW THRU THE GRT LKS REGION.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"

2013-2014 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31):
Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 47"
Actual: 38.5"


11/12: T
11/23: T (LES)
12/7: T
12/9: T
12/10: 3.0"
12/14: 6.0"
12/17: 4.0"
12/24: T (just a few flakes)
12/26: 0.5"
1/1-1/3: 7.5"
1/10: 1.0"
1/19: T
1/21-1/22: 4" (FAIL)
1/29 "HECS": T
2/3: 3"
2/5: 9.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
donutvampire
post Dec 23 2011, 01:22 PM
Post #16




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 480
Joined: 19-December 10
Member No.: 24,750





This storm is really the best potential for an all around snow event even for most of the northeast.... besides the 27th event which idk what is going with the models cant handle it...

This post has been edited by donutvampire: Dec 23 2011, 01:55 PM


--------------------
Location: Portland, ME
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
sw03181
post Dec 23 2011, 01:26 PM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,313
Joined: 7-December 08
From: South Windsor, CT
Member No.: 16,373





QUOTE(donutvampire @ Dec 23 2011, 01:22 PM) *
This storm is really the best potential for an all around snow even for most of the northeast.... besides the 27th event which idk what is going with the models cant handle it...

Based on my experience, clippers and overrunning events that originate from the middle of the country are much easier to forecast. Either its there or it isn't. IMO there's a good likelihood that we see at least snow showers on New Years Weekend.


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"

2013-2014 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31):
Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 47"
Actual: 38.5"


11/12: T
11/23: T (LES)
12/7: T
12/9: T
12/10: 3.0"
12/14: 6.0"
12/17: 4.0"
12/24: T (just a few flakes)
12/26: 0.5"
1/1-1/3: 7.5"
1/10: 1.0"
1/19: T
1/21-1/22: 4" (FAIL)
1/29 "HECS": T
2/3: 3"
2/5: 9.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LoveNYCSnow
post Dec 23 2011, 01:28 PM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 25,904
Joined: 8-January 09
From: Ulster County, NY
Member No.: 16,816





QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 23 2011, 01:26 PM) *
Based on my experience, clippers and overrunning events that originate from the middle of the country are much easier to forecast. Either its there or it isn't. IMO there's a good likelihood that we see at least snow showers on New Years Weekend.


the only thing with clippers is sometimes there strength is either badly underestimated or badly overestimated but i agree usually clippers don't just dissapear.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Fire/Rescue
post Dec 23 2011, 02:32 PM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,244
Joined: 4-January 10
From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore
Member No.: 20,753





QUOTE(Kitagrl @ Dec 22 2011, 09:58 PM) *
ROFL!!!!!!

I couldn't believe I was out shopping today without a coat on December 22....

No doubt, as I currently have on only shorts and a long sleeve t-shirt and am completely comfortable smile.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Fire/Rescue
post Dec 23 2011, 02:37 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,244
Joined: 4-January 10
From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore
Member No.: 20,753





QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Dec 23 2011, 12:29 PM) *
Even though fantasy storms usually dont pan out, they are probably a good sign as the GFS didn't even show fantasy snowstorms for the east in December. The GFS also shows temps in the 30s and 40s over the next few weeks as opposed to 50s and 60s. Baby steps maybe toward an actual winter?

agreed...bring on the baby steps biggrin.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

6 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Closed TopicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 30th September 2014 - 06:54 PM