 Dec. 31-Jan. 3 MidAtl/NE Clipper, Please Post In OBS Thread |
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 Dec 22 2011, 01:17 PM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 6,921 Joined: 7-December 08 From: South Windsor, CT Member No.: 16,373  |
Yesterdays 18z GFS:
 0z GFS:  6z GFS:  12z GFS:  This has the potential to be the only legit chance at accumulating snow for anyone from Richmond to Boston for a long time. Hopefully the models thread the needle on this one. -------------------- Rob
Member of the 30" Club 2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5" 2012-2013 Winter Wx predictions: Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 39.5" 50+ Degree Days since Dec. 1: 10 Winter Wx. Events: 11/7-11/9: 7" 11/27-11/29: T 11/30: T (flurries) 12/22: T (lake-effect) 12/24: 1" (clipper) 12/27: 5" (turned to slop) 12/29-12/30: 10" (resulted in 2 week snowpack) 1/16: 4" 1/21:T (norlun) 1/25-1/26: T 1/28: 2" 2/1-2/3:T 2/5: T 2013 North American Blizzard: 32" (all-time record) 2/13: T 2/16: 2" Various T events up to 3/2: .5" 3/6-3/8: 17" 3/18-3/19: 4.5" 10/29/11, 10/29/12, and 2/8-9/13: Never forget |
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Dec 22 2011, 01:30 PM
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#2
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,417 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 22 2011, 01:17 PM)  Yesterdays 18z GFS: 0z GFS: 6z GFS: 12z GFS: This has the potential to be the only legit chance at accumulating snow for anyone from Richmond to Boston for a long time. Hopefully the models thread the needle on this one. Bring it on, now the question remains if we do indeed see this clipper come to fruition....would the current modeling be cold enough to support "Snow" in the middle Atlantic 95 corridor? |
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| Removed_Member_md1_* |
Dec 22 2011, 08:24 PM
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#3
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Models have to many problems getting any storm right at the moment. I would not hold my breath especially this far out.
Warm temps and lots of rain on the way went ahead put seed down for early spring crops. 
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Dec 22 2011, 08:28 PM
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#4
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 11,693 Joined: 6-February 08 From: LANCASTER PA Member No.: 13,459 |
QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Dec 22 2011, 01:30 PM) Bring it on, now the question remains if we do indeed see this clipper come to fruition....would the current modeling be cold enough to support "Snow" in the middle Atlantic 95 corridor? Well usually clippers are just a light touch of snow for much of the region, unless it bombs out for the Northeast. With that being said, clippers usually also make there own cold air or have enough cold air on its own to run on. While this may be case as we get closer, they can also fizzle out as we all know. Gunna be long tracking this one the way the models have been acting! -------------------- -James
Severe T-storm Watches: Severe Warnings:1 Tornado Watches: Tornado Warnings: # of 100+ degrees days: |
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Dec 22 2011, 09:58 PM
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#5
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 589 Joined: 22-December 10 From: Lower Bucks, PA Member No.: 24,797 |
QUOTE(md1 @ Dec 22 2011, 09:24 PM) Warm temps and lots of rain on the way went ahead put seed down for early spring crops. ROFL!!!!!! I couldn't believe I was out shopping today without a coat on December 22.... -------------------- Midwest transplant always hoping for exciting weather in Philly....
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| Removed_Member_md1_* |
Dec 22 2011, 10:12 PM
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#6
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QUOTE(Kitagrl @ Dec 22 2011, 09:58 PM) ROFL!!!!!! I couldn't believe I was out shopping today without a coat on December 22.... The wild thing is we've had things like this happen before were 60's show up and then all of a sudden cold hits with heavy snow. Even the mets couldn't predict the event. |
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Dec 22 2011, 10:15 PM
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#7
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,266 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
QUOTE(md1 @ Dec 22 2011, 08:24 PM) Models have to many problems getting any storm right at the moment. I would not hold my breath especially this far out. Warm temps and lots of rain on the way went ahead put seed down for early spring crops. The pattern for now is warm, but the bolded part just seems like a complete winter cancel... I know the pattern right now is far from what we'd want for cold and snow, but all you have to do is to check the long range threads, both here and in other places - there's more and more signs showing up that although still not certain and not a high probability yet, the pattern change could take place towards mid January. It won't be a cold/snowy winter for us, but the cold and snow will get here at some point, so going on a path expecting every storm to bring rain and warmth this winter will bring some surprises later on in the winter. QUOTE(Kitagrl @ Dec 22 2011, 09:58 PM) ROFL!!!!!! I couldn't believe I was out shopping today without a coat on December 22.... I went out with a t-shirt today for the... I don't know how many days it was warm enough for me to go out with a t-shirt this month since I lost count 
-------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Dec 22 2011, 11:40 PM
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#8
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 10,981 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Columbus Member No.: 13,767 |
this looks to be about the most potential on the boards right now
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Dec 22 2011, 11:47 PM
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,921 Joined: 7-December 08 From: South Windsor, CT Member No.: 16,373 |
The 0z GFS now has two clippers in this timeframe. The first one tracks over VT/NH and the second one tracks SW through PA and VA, ejects off the VA coast and then bombs out and brushes SNE.
The plot thickens... -------------------- Rob
Member of the 30" Club 2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5" 2012-2013 Winter Wx predictions: Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 39.5" 50+ Degree Days since Dec. 1: 10 Winter Wx. Events: 11/7-11/9: 7" 11/27-11/29: T 11/30: T (flurries) 12/22: T (lake-effect) 12/24: 1" (clipper) 12/27: 5" (turned to slop) 12/29-12/30: 10" (resulted in 2 week snowpack) 1/16: 4" 1/21:T (norlun) 1/25-1/26: T 1/28: 2" 2/1-2/3:T 2/5: T 2013 North American Blizzard: 32" (all-time record) 2/13: T 2/16: 2" Various T events up to 3/2: .5" 3/6-3/8: 17" 3/18-3/19: 4.5" 10/29/11, 10/29/12, and 2/8-9/13: Never forget |
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Dec 23 2011, 06:28 AM
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#10
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,015 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000' Member No.: 21,746 |
6z has more of a look of a Miller B type system with energy transfer to the coast and blowing up through New England Hr 228-240. The first such of a couple towards the end of the longer range.
Hey - there's a monster storm brewing on the 370Hr range. Let's open a thread - |
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Dec 23 2011, 09:34 AM
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#11
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 669 Joined: 3-February 10 From: Manassas, VA Member No.: 21,343 |
QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 22 2011, 11:47 PM) The 0z GFS now has two clippers in this timeframe. The first one tracks over VT/NH and the second one tracks SW through PA and VA, ejects off the VA coast and then bombs out and brushes SNE. The plot thickens... Today's GFS fantasy runs are definitely something to keep an eye out for. |
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Dec 23 2011, 11:09 AM
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,921 Joined: 7-December 08 From: South Windsor, CT Member No.: 16,373 |
QUOTE(JrNOVAMet @ Dec 23 2011, 09:34 AM) Today's GFS fantasy runs are definitely something to keep an eye out for. Yea, there's a couple out there, at hours 300 and 372, but don't get your hopes up just yet. But at least the pattern looks more stormy. -------------------- Rob
Member of the 30" Club 2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5" 2012-2013 Winter Wx predictions: Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 39.5" 50+ Degree Days since Dec. 1: 10 Winter Wx. Events: 11/7-11/9: 7" 11/27-11/29: T 11/30: T (flurries) 12/22: T (lake-effect) 12/24: 1" (clipper) 12/27: 5" (turned to slop) 12/29-12/30: 10" (resulted in 2 week snowpack) 1/16: 4" 1/21:T (norlun) 1/25-1/26: T 1/28: 2" 2/1-2/3:T 2/5: T 2013 North American Blizzard: 32" (all-time record) 2/13: T 2/16: 2" Various T events up to 3/2: .5" 3/6-3/8: 17" 3/18-3/19: 4.5" 10/29/11, 10/29/12, and 2/8-9/13: Never forget |
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Dec 23 2011, 11:51 AM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,921 Joined: 7-December 08 From: South Windsor, CT Member No.: 16,373 |
The 12z GFS looks a bit lost. It has three pieces of energy to work with: The first clipper, which gets held back, the disturbance in the GOM, and then another clipper behind the first one. On the past three runs, the GFS has been trying to figure out which of these disturbances to key in on.
This post has been edited by sw03181: Dec 23 2011, 11:51 AM -------------------- Rob
Member of the 30" Club 2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5" 2012-2013 Winter Wx predictions: Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 39.5" 50+ Degree Days since Dec. 1: 10 Winter Wx. Events: 11/7-11/9: 7" 11/27-11/29: T 11/30: T (flurries) 12/22: T (lake-effect) 12/24: 1" (clipper) 12/27: 5" (turned to slop) 12/29-12/30: 10" (resulted in 2 week snowpack) 1/16: 4" 1/21:T (norlun) 1/25-1/26: T 1/28: 2" 2/1-2/3:T 2/5: T 2013 North American Blizzard: 32" (all-time record) 2/13: T 2/16: 2" Various T events up to 3/2: .5" 3/6-3/8: 17" 3/18-3/19: 4.5" 10/29/11, 10/29/12, and 2/8-9/13: Never forget |
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Dec 23 2011, 12:29 PM
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#14
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 23,850 Joined: 8-January 09 From: Ulster County Member No.: 16,816 |
QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 23 2011, 11:09 AM) Yea, there's a couple out there, at hours 300 and 372, but don't get your hopes up just yet. But at least the pattern looks more stormy. Even though fantasy storms usually dont pan out, they are probably a good sign as the GFS didn't even show fantasy snowstorms for the east in December. The GFS also shows temps in the 30s and 40s over the next few weeks as opposed to 50s and 60s. Baby steps maybe toward an actual winter? |
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Dec 23 2011, 01:21 PM
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,921 Joined: 7-December 08 From: South Windsor, CT Member No.: 16,373 |
Taunton has this event:
QUOTE MAY SEE A WEEKEND CLIPPER LOW THRU THE GRT LKS REGION. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off -------------------- Rob
Member of the 30" Club 2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5" 2012-2013 Winter Wx predictions: Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 39.5" 50+ Degree Days since Dec. 1: 10 Winter Wx. Events: 11/7-11/9: 7" 11/27-11/29: T 11/30: T (flurries) 12/22: T (lake-effect) 12/24: 1" (clipper) 12/27: 5" (turned to slop) 12/29-12/30: 10" (resulted in 2 week snowpack) 1/16: 4" 1/21:T (norlun) 1/25-1/26: T 1/28: 2" 2/1-2/3:T 2/5: T 2013 North American Blizzard: 32" (all-time record) 2/13: T 2/16: 2" Various T events up to 3/2: .5" 3/6-3/8: 17" 3/18-3/19: 4.5" 10/29/11, 10/29/12, and 2/8-9/13: Never forget |
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Dec 23 2011, 01:22 PM
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#16
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 452 Joined: 19-December 10 Member No.: 24,750 |
This storm is really the best potential for an all around snow event even for most of the northeast.... besides the 27th event which idk what is going with the models cant handle it...
This post has been edited by donutvampire: Dec 23 2011, 01:55 PM -------------------- Location: Lyndonville, VT
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Dec 23 2011, 01:26 PM
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,921 Joined: 7-December 08 From: South Windsor, CT Member No.: 16,373 |
QUOTE(donutvampire @ Dec 23 2011, 01:22 PM) This storm is really the best potential for an all around snow even for most of the northeast.... besides the 27th event which idk what is going with the models cant handle it... Based on my experience, clippers and overrunning events that originate from the middle of the country are much easier to forecast. Either its there or it isn't. IMO there's a good likelihood that we see at least snow showers on New Years Weekend. -------------------- Rob
Member of the 30" Club 2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5" 2012-2013 Winter Wx predictions: Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 39.5" 50+ Degree Days since Dec. 1: 10 Winter Wx. Events: 11/7-11/9: 7" 11/27-11/29: T 11/30: T (flurries) 12/22: T (lake-effect) 12/24: 1" (clipper) 12/27: 5" (turned to slop) 12/29-12/30: 10" (resulted in 2 week snowpack) 1/16: 4" 1/21:T (norlun) 1/25-1/26: T 1/28: 2" 2/1-2/3:T 2/5: T 2013 North American Blizzard: 32" (all-time record) 2/13: T 2/16: 2" Various T events up to 3/2: .5" 3/6-3/8: 17" 3/18-3/19: 4.5" 10/29/11, 10/29/12, and 2/8-9/13: Never forget |
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Dec 23 2011, 01:28 PM
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 23,850 Joined: 8-January 09 From: Ulster County Member No.: 16,816 |
QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 23 2011, 01:26 PM) Based on my experience, clippers and overrunning events that originate from the middle of the country are much easier to forecast. Either its there or it isn't. IMO there's a good likelihood that we see at least snow showers on New Years Weekend. the only thing with clippers is sometimes there strength is either badly underestimated or badly overestimated but i agree usually clippers don't just dissapear. |
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Dec 23 2011, 02:32 PM
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#19
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,417 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
QUOTE(Kitagrl @ Dec 22 2011, 09:58 PM) ROFL!!!!!! I couldn't believe I was out shopping today without a coat on December 22.... No doubt, as I currently have on only shorts and a long sleeve t-shirt and am completely comfortable 
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Dec 23 2011, 02:37 PM
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,417 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Dec 23 2011, 12:29 PM) Even though fantasy storms usually dont pan out, they are probably a good sign as the GFS didn't even show fantasy snowstorms for the east in December. The GFS also shows temps in the 30s and 40s over the next few weeks as opposed to 50s and 60s. Baby steps maybe toward an actual winter? agreed...bring on the baby steps 
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