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> January 11th-13th Mid-Atlantic/NE Winter Storm, Please Post In The OBS Thread
Lady Luck
post Jan 2 2012, 12:08 AM
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A similar set-up prior to the snow event of 10.29.11.

10-16-10-20 [Nine days before the event]:
Attached Image
1.3-1.5 ECMWF [Nine days before the event]:
Attached Image



Snow Threat Analog:
Attached Image

GFS Ensemble showing potential Snow threat from 1.12--1.14.12.
Look at the image located in the: 1st Row, Third Column from the Left. The ensemble is trending in a similar fashion as the 10.29.11 analog. Also, there is a lot of energy coming down before the threat moves up the East Coast and gets situated over the Northeast. This threat could be BIG.
1

Attached Image

2
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3

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4
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5
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JUST ADDED:

DATE OF ANALOG: OCTOBER 20-OCTOBER 29, 2011 [EVENT]
FORECASTED PERIOD: JANUARY 3-JANUARY 12, 2012 [POTENTIAL EVENT]


1.AO TREND:
Attached Image
MATCH NOT AVAILABLE

2.PNA TREND:
Attached Image
Attached Image
CLOSE MATCH

3.NAO TREND:
Attached Image
Attached Image
CLOSE MATCH

This post has been edited by Lady Luck: Jan 6 2012, 01:56 PM


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STEVE392
post Jan 2 2012, 07:27 AM
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it better fall on that weekend if it ends up verifying. Im off and dont want another repeat of 10/29 here at work.


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Removed_Member_Snowrider_*
post Jan 2 2012, 12:11 PM
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A little Ironic, but Pierce Corbyn has been calling for a big Northeast Snowstorm/Blizzard in the time frame of January 11-14, 2012. He had this prediction back in November. Would be pretty impressive if some type of storm formed in this time frame.

Snowrider.
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Niyologist
post Jan 2 2012, 01:53 PM
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This has a strong signal. This is starting on the time where there's a Neutral AO and a slightly negative NAO and a slightly negative PNA/EPO. All I got to say is....About time.


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sw03181
post Jan 2 2012, 02:10 PM
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12z GFS is on board, for now.





--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"

2013-2014 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31):
Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 47"
Actual: 38.5"


11/12: T
11/23: T (LES)
12/7: T
12/9: T
12/10: 3.0"
12/14: 6.0"
12/17: 4.0"
12/24: T (just a few flakes)
12/26: 0.5"
1/1-1/3: 7.5"
1/10: 1.0"
1/19: T
1/21-1/22: 4" (FAIL)
1/29 "HECS": T
2/3: 3"
2/5: 9.5"
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jdrenken
post Jan 2 2012, 02:18 PM
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There will be alot of disappointment for many with this thread just like the Christmas thread. Yet, there will be winners unlike the Christmas storm.


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paletitsnow63
post Jan 2 2012, 02:29 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 2 2012, 02:18 PM) *
There will be alot of disappointment for many with this thread just like the Christmas thread. Yet, there will be winners unlike the Christmas storm.

JD, my guess is your expecting more of an interior MA / NE storm or maybe a cutter?

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jdrenken
post Jan 2 2012, 02:38 PM
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QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Jan 2 2012, 01:29 PM) *
JD, my guess is your expecting more of an interior MA / NE storm or maybe a cutter?


With a -PNA signal, you won't get the same type of trough that favors the coast.


Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 


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Niyologist
post Jan 2 2012, 03:22 PM
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The 12Z ECMWF has a 988 mB Coastal over Baltimore/D.C. at HR 240. Plenty of time to change.


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The Day After To...
post Jan 2 2012, 03:24 PM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Jan 2 2012, 03:22 PM) *
The 12Z ECMWF has a 988 mB Coastal over Baltimore/D.C. at HR 240. Plenty of time to change.

Maybe, we could move into an active nor'easter period over the NorthEast. That would be a change.


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JDClapper
post Jan 2 2012, 03:32 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 2 2012, 02:18 PM) *
There will be alot of disappointment for many with this thread just like the Christmas thread. Yet, there will be winners unlike the Christmas storm.


Been following these forums very closely this year (pretty much stopped watching local/national forecasts).. and this is the strongest statement leaning FOR a storm that I've seen from you JD. Yeah, the rest of the year has been pretty easy to argue AGAINST storms.. but the signals "for" an ECS are pretty strong for this period huh?


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Avg. Snowfall 2001-2014: 34"

'13-'14: 45"
'12-'13: 33"
'11-'12: 13"
'10-'11: 42"
'09-'10: 33"
'08-'09: 20"
'07-'08: 32"
'06-'07: 29"
'05-'06: 24"
'04-'05: 36"
'03-'04: 53"
'02-'03: 63"
'01-'02: 20"
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grandpaboy
post Jan 2 2012, 03:49 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 2 2012, 02:38 PM) *
With a -PNA signal, you won't get the same type of trough that favors the coast.



Yeah the PNA is in the TANK during this time frame.......... blink.gif


--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 2 2012, 03:58 PM
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Not buying this for I-95. Too many potentials to keep track of the specific time frames, but if we do see something around the 9-11th, IMO it would stay more of a wave of low pressure with light precip in the form of rain. Going beyond that, there is a potential for a bigger storm behind it, towards the 12-14th time frame, but the tanking PNA is far from ideal for this time frame. The NAO in addition is expected to linger around neutral, still not very good, and the only positive I can find is the dropping EPO although it won't have anywhere near as much of an impact as a +PNA/-NAO combo would. Perhaps some snow could be possible in the northern Mid Atlantic, but the Northeast is still the favored area for the better snowstorm potentials than the central/northern Mid Atlantic.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Jan 2 2012, 03:59 PM
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KartAnimal29
post Jan 2 2012, 04:12 PM
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QUOTE(Snowrider @ Jan 2 2012, 12:11 PM) *
A little Ironic, but Pierce Corbyn has been calling for a big Northeast Snowstorm/Blizzard in the time frame of January 11-14, 2012. He had this prediction back in November. Would be pretty impressive if some type of storm formed in this time frame.

Snowrider.


I never heard of Pierce Corbyn till I seen your post. I have been looking around for the last hours or so and WOW. I'll definitely be looking into him a lot more down the road.
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Removed_Member_md1_*
post Jan 2 2012, 07:44 PM
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Fire/Rescue
post Jan 2 2012, 07:48 PM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Jan 2 2012, 03:22 PM) *
The 12Z ECMWF has a 988 mB Coastal over Baltimore/D.C. at HR 240. Plenty of time to change.

East East wink.gif
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Fire/Rescue
post Jan 2 2012, 07:50 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jan 2 2012, 03:58 PM) *
Not buying this for I-95. Too many potentials to keep track of the specific time frames, but if we do see something around the 9-11th, IMO it would stay more of a wave of low pressure with light precip in the form of rain. Going beyond that, there is a potential for a bigger storm behind it, towards the 12-14th time frame, but the tanking PNA is far from ideal for this time frame. The NAO in addition is expected to linger around neutral, still not very good, and the only positive I can find is the dropping EPO although it won't have anywhere near as much of an impact as a +PNA/-NAO combo would. Perhaps some snow could be possible in the northern Mid Atlantic, but the Northeast is still the favored area for the better snowstorm potentials than the central/northern Mid Atlantic.

Just cant catch a break here in the "Central" Mid-Atlanytic can I Burbs dry.gif
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psu1313
post Jan 2 2012, 08:49 PM
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I do like the storm idea but my concern is with the air mass and path. The interior would be a more favored location at this point but it's a long way out.
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jdrenken
post Jan 2 2012, 08:59 PM
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Wow...we're so sure about this storm that we've decided to peg it down to one day?

I mean...it's not like the models have been at 100% this year or anything.


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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 2 2012, 09:08 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 2 2012, 08:59 PM) *
Wow...we're so sure about this storm that we've decided to peg it down to one day?

I mean...it's not like the models have been at 100% this year or anything.

This far out, it's nearly impossible to be right about a single specific storm date instead of a 2-3 day range without it being a coincidence. A January 11-14 time frame would be much better for this thread IMO.
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