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> Jan. 15-18 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Please Post In The OBS Thread
Juniorrr
post Jan 7 2012, 11:31 PM
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Might as well... This 2nd potential system looks way more promising to produce a snow event for someone with the rush of colder air from behind this next week's system... Some models hint this.

0z GFS
Hour 126


Hour 138


Hour 144


This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Jan 15 2012, 12:23 AM
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snowlover2
post Jan 7 2012, 11:34 PM
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I was just getting ready to start a thread. This is looking decent. Would be nice to see the Euro show this too.


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# of T-Storm Watches:6

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:5

# of Tornado Warnings:0
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Juniorrr
post Jan 7 2012, 11:35 PM
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0z GFS looked like a weird run though with the split lows with one in the GOM and one in the Apps.
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rifej7386
post Jan 7 2012, 11:37 PM
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Lets Party! Here we go! tongue.gif
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Royalflush06
post Jan 7 2012, 11:40 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jan 7 2012, 11:35 PM) *
0z GFS looked like a weird run though with the split lows with one in the GOM and one in the Apps.

I agree looked odd. I think maybe we should have waited until some more model consensus but whatever makes ya smile. wink.gif
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Juniorrr
post Jan 7 2012, 11:41 PM
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QUOTE(Royalflush06 @ Jan 7 2012, 11:40 PM) *
I agree looked odd. I think maybe we should have waited until some more model consensus but whatever makes ya smile. wink.gif

Anything that shows a trace - 2" Is godlike this winter tongue.gif ...
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rifej7386
post Jan 7 2012, 11:44 PM
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Snow Flurry...I'm there!
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grace
post Jan 7 2012, 11:57 PM
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Some of the GFS ensembles have been showing this for the past two days. The GGEM has been ever so close to do something with this & actually has for the SE & E. Coast. My problem right now is just how sporadic each run is with the energy of this system...so it's hard to get to excited right now especially with how the winter has gone so far.
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snowlover2
post Jan 8 2012, 03:17 AM
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Euro had nothing.


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# of T-Storm Watches:6

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:5

# of Tornado Warnings:0
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TheBlizzardOf197...
post Jan 8 2012, 04:34 AM
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QUOTE
000
FXUS63 KIND 080822
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
322 AM EST SUN JAN 8 2012
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MOVES ON TO
THE EAST AN AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK
AS IT WILL ALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT SLOWER IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR
THURSDAY AND WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. PRECIP STILL APPEARS IFFY...BUT SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATE SOME BY LATE THURSDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE ALL BLEND 20
PERCENT POPS MOST AREAS EXCEPT MAYBE FAR SOUTH.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN mad.gif
BRINGING A SNOW STORM FRIDAY AS IT TRACKS A SURFACE LOW INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MOST OF THE OTHER GFS ENSEMBLES...EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODEL DO NOT SUPPORT THIS AND STILL APPEAR DRY FOR FRIDAY.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF ALLBLEND AND CONSALL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXCEPT I
DID GO A LITTLE WARMER THAN ALL BLEND NUMBERS IN THE SOUTH TO FIT
BETTER WITH THOSE OFFICES TO OUR SOUTH.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1

This post has been edited by TheBlizzardOf1978: Jan 8 2012, 04:48 AM


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Snow Storm
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10


Blizzard Warning
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
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rifej7386
post Jan 8 2012, 09:29 AM
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Still fun...lol
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ctrlohio59
post Jan 8 2012, 11:56 AM
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Looks like this could produce a nice 1-2" if it come to pass
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 8 2012, 12:34 PM
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I think this was made pre mature, it all hangs on the balance of the initial storm....which is still everywhere
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Juniorrr
post Jan 8 2012, 12:41 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 8 2012, 12:34 PM) *
I think this was made pre mature, it all hangs on the balance of the initial storm....which is still everywhere

Yea couple models keep jumping on whether there will light snow or not for some areas.

~ Also remember this thread is made for the 2nd cutoff's influence... with some models showing a slower cutoff(hanging off the CA coast) dates will probably be adjusted

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Jan 8 2012, 12:44 PM
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grace
post Jan 8 2012, 08:29 PM
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Don't throw the towel in on this yet until first system gets through. 18z GFS ensembles...6 out of the 12 are showing a possibility of a secondary system. Right now it's pretty far south, but at least there is something there. At least interesting. Is it likely? Probably not. Can it happen? Yes

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/Members.html

This post has been edited by grace: Jan 8 2012, 08:32 PM
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Juniorrr
post Jan 8 2012, 08:32 PM
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For what it's worth the DGEX has something also but it looks way northwest of any other model.
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snoluver
post Jan 9 2012, 09:13 AM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jan 8 2012, 08:32 PM) *
For what it's worth the DGEX has something also but it looks way northwest of any other model.


mad.gif This winter, for a La nina, has been undeniably disappointing for ALL, including places where there should be a snow pack by now...and there is NOTHING! We all might as well move to Hawaii....scenery wouldn't be any different, and no yo-yo temperatures! dry.gif Are trends EVER going to go negative!!!? At this point negative is ANYONE'S only hope for snow!

This post has been edited by snoluver: Jan 9 2012, 09:17 AM


--------------------
2012/2013: Please bring us near the Ohio river some measurable snow event(s)...it's been YEARS!!
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Juniorrr
post Jan 9 2012, 10:43 AM
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Theres a system in the sw on newest model updates... Cant post images on phone












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rifej7386
post Jan 9 2012, 12:05 PM
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12z GFS is showing a potential MONSTER developing close to this timeframe. Have to keep an eye on this and may have to adjust dates or create another thread. I'll post a few select images. smile.gif
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rifej7386
post Jan 9 2012, 12:10 PM
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12z GFS 144hr:

Full of potential but it is a ways away. Will fantasy become reality?
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