 Jan. 15-18 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Please Post In The OBS Thread |
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 Jan 7 2012, 11:31 PM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 4,456 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413  |
Might as well... This 2nd potential system looks way more promising to produce a snow event for someone with the rush of colder air from behind this next week's system... Some models hint this.
0z GFS Hour 126  Hour 138  Hour 144 
This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Jan 15 2012, 12:23 AM |
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Jan 7 2012, 11:34 PM
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#2
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,577 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 |
I was just getting ready to start a thread. This is looking decent. Would be nice to see the Euro show this too.
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# of Tornado Watches: # of T-Storm Warnings: # of Tornado Warnings: |
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Jan 7 2012, 11:35 PM
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,456 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413 |
0z GFS looked like a weird run though with the split lows with one in the GOM and one in the Apps.
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Jan 7 2012, 11:37 PM
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#4
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 872 Joined: 15-January 11 From: Wyandot, OH Member No.: 25,110 |
Lets Party! Here we go!
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Jan 7 2012, 11:40 PM
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#5
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,451 Joined: 27-February 08 From: shelby twp,Michigan Member No.: 14,019 |
QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jan 7 2012, 11:35 PM)  0z GFS looked like a weird run though with the split lows with one in the GOM and one in the Apps. I agree looked odd. I think maybe we should have waited until some more model consensus but whatever makes ya smile. 
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Jan 7 2012, 11:41 PM
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#6
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,456 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413 |
QUOTE(Royalflush06 @ Jan 7 2012, 11:40 PM) I agree looked odd. I think maybe we should have waited until some more model consensus but whatever makes ya smile. Anything that shows a trace - 2" Is godlike this winter ...
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Jan 7 2012, 11:44 PM
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#7
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 872 Joined: 15-January 11 From: Wyandot, OH Member No.: 25,110 |
Snow Flurry...I'm there!
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Jan 7 2012, 11:57 PM
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#8
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,426 Joined: 21-January 10 From: Paducah, Ky Member No.: 21,017 |
Some of the GFS ensembles have been showing this for the past two days. The GGEM has been ever so close to do something with this & actually has for the SE & E. Coast. My problem right now is just how sporadic each run is with the energy of this system...so it's hard to get to excited right now especially with how the winter has gone so far.
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Jan 8 2012, 03:17 AM
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,577 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 |
Euro had nothing.
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# of Tornado Watches: # of T-Storm Warnings: # of Tornado Warnings: |
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Jan 8 2012, 04:34 AM
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#10
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,146 Joined: 22-January 09 From: Paragon IN Member No.: 17,052 |
QUOTE 000 FXUS63 KIND 080822 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 322 AM EST SUN JAN 8 2012 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MOVES ON TO THE EAST AN AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK AS IT WILL ALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT SLOWER IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR THURSDAY AND WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. PRECIP STILL APPEARS IFFY...BUT SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE SOME BY LATE THURSDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE ALL BLEND 20 PERCENT POPS MOST AREAS EXCEPT MAYBE FAR SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN  BRINGING A SNOW STORM FRIDAY AS IT TRACKS A SURFACE LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE OTHER GFS ENSEMBLES...EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODEL DO NOT SUPPORT THIS AND STILL APPEAR DRY FOR FRIDAY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF ALLBLEND AND CONSALL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXCEPT I DID GO A LITTLE WARMER THAN ALL BLEND NUMBERS IN THE SOUTH TO FIT BETTER WITH THOSE OFFICES TO OUR SOUTH. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1 This post has been edited by TheBlizzardOf1978: Jan 8 2012, 04:48 AM -------------------- Snow Storm
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Blizzard Warning 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 |
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Jan 8 2012, 09:29 AM
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#11
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 872 Joined: 15-January 11 From: Wyandot, OH Member No.: 25,110 |
Still fun...lol
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Jan 8 2012, 11:56 AM
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,286 Joined: 1-February 09 From: Marion, Ohio Member No.: 17,369 |
Looks like this could produce a nice 1-2" if it come to pass
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Jan 8 2012, 12:34 PM
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#13
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 10,996 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Columbus Member No.: 13,767 |
I think this was made pre mature, it all hangs on the balance of the initial storm....which is still everywhere
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Jan 8 2012, 12:41 PM
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#14
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,456 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413 |
QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 8 2012, 12:34 PM) I think this was made pre mature, it all hangs on the balance of the initial storm....which is still everywhere Yea couple models keep jumping on whether there will light snow or not for some areas. ~ Also remember this thread is made for the 2nd cutoff's influence... with some models showing a slower cutoff(hanging off the CA coast) dates will probably be adjusted This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Jan 8 2012, 12:44 PM |
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Jan 8 2012, 08:29 PM
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,426 Joined: 21-January 10 From: Paducah, Ky Member No.: 21,017 |
Don't throw the towel in on this yet until first system gets through. 18z GFS ensembles...6 out of the 12 are showing a possibility of a secondary system. Right now it's pretty far south, but at least there is something there. At least interesting. Is it likely? Probably not. Can it happen? Yes
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/Members.html This post has been edited by grace: Jan 8 2012, 08:32 PM |
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Jan 8 2012, 08:32 PM
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,456 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413 |
For what it's worth the DGEX has something also but it looks way northwest of any other model.
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 Jan 9 2012, 09:13 AM
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#17
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 892 Joined: 12-January 08 From: Petersburg, IN Member No.: 12,421 |
QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jan 8 2012, 08:32 PM) For what it's worth the DGEX has something also but it looks way northwest of any other model. This winter, for a La nina, has been undeniably disappointing for ALL, including places where there should be a snow pack by now...and there is NOTHING! We all might as well move to Hawaii....scenery wouldn't be any different, and no yo-yo temperatures!  Are trends EVER going to go negative!!!? At this point negative is ANYONE'S only hope for snow!
This post has been edited by snoluver: Jan 9 2012, 09:17 AM -------------------- 2012/2013: Please bring us near the Ohio river some measurable snow event(s)...it's been YEARS!!
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Jan 9 2012, 10:43 AM
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,456 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413 |
Theres a system in the sw on newest model updates... Cant post images on phone
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Jan 9 2012, 12:05 PM
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#19
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 872 Joined: 15-January 11 From: Wyandot, OH Member No.: 25,110 |
12z GFS is showing a potential MONSTER developing close to this timeframe. Have to keep an eye on this and may have to adjust dates or create another thread. I'll post a few select images.
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Jan 9 2012, 12:10 PM
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 872 Joined: 15-January 11 From: Wyandot, OH Member No.: 25,110 |
12z GFS 144hr:
 Full of potential but it is a ways away. Will fantasy become reality? |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 23rd May 2013 - 04:23 AM |