 Jan. 19-21 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 days] |
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 Jan 13 2012, 04:29 PM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 4,810 Joined: 15-February 08 From: Bolingbrook, IL Member No.: 13,723  |
something that's been around for a few days on the models. . .days may have to be adjusted at some point.... but, at the moment it looks like an over-running event trying to (and in some cases able to) build an SLP...
This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Jan 16 2012, 10:08 PM |
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Jan 13 2012, 04:32 PM
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#2
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,534 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
QUOTE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 300 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2012 NO GLARING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z MODELS THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...WITH A FEW DIFFERENCES ON TUESDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM. A WIDER SPREAD IS IN SOLUTIONS IS EVIDENT FOR THE THURSDAY SYSTEM BTWN THE GFS/ECMWF. OVERALL...WEIGHTED THE FORECAST ABOUT 70 PCT GFS/30 PCT ECMWF. A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL. A QUICK PUNCH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH AIR TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT...AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. |
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Jan 13 2012, 04:33 PM
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,534 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
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Jan 13 2012, 04:47 PM
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#4
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 888 Joined: 8-January 09 From: New Baltimore, MI Member No.: 16,814 |
QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jan 13 2012, 04:33 PM)  SEMI out of the heavier stuff once again...Glad this is a few days off hopefully we can get something out of this. |
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Jan 13 2012, 04:48 PM
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#5
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 872 Joined: 15-January 11 From: Wyandot, OH Member No.: 25,110 |
More eye candy but this time we have a little bit of evidence left on our face from the last snack.
 
This post has been edited by rifej7386: Jan 13 2012, 04:50 PM |
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Jan 13 2012, 04:57 PM
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#6
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 698 Joined: 29-December 08 From: Chicago (SW side) Member No.: 16,701 |
looks like another storm out in west coast that most likely will be coming our way
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Jan 13 2012, 05:09 PM
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#7
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 262 Joined: 19-January 11 From: Charleston, IL Member No.: 25,153 |
12z GFS had a bigger system around the 180 hour timeframe too, something to watch indeed
-------------------- Formally jhamps10
Weekday home Charleston, IL at EIU Weekend home Flora, IL |
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Jan 13 2012, 08:05 PM
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#8
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 10,996 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Columbus Member No.: 13,767 |
looks like broken off pieces of energy moving through clipper like on the GFS runs
This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Jan 13 2012, 08:05 PM |
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Jan 13 2012, 09:55 PM
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 10,996 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Columbus Member No.: 13,767 |
ILN
QUOTE WITH A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW HOWEVER SOME RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE BACK INTO THE FA FOR FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT. |
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Jan 13 2012, 11:26 PM
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#10
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 10,996 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Columbus Member No.: 13,767 |
this will quickly become the feature thread by tomorrow based on the lack of winter in the previous two storms. Given the multiple pieces that break away and come through....next week is gonna be a thread nightmare to keep straight
 
This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Jan 13 2012, 11:31 PM |
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Jan 13 2012, 11:27 PM
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#11
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 10,996 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Columbus Member No.: 13,767 |
 
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Jan 13 2012, 11:31 PM
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 10,996 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Columbus Member No.: 13,767 |
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Jan 13 2012, 11:37 PM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 10,996 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Columbus Member No.: 13,767 |
ewwwww.....multiple runs in a row now show the piece after this storm torching the entire nation in a zonal flow (980 MB low in N. Dakota 10 degree C line rockets to Chicago) before the next......WARM...shot comes in....not surprised given the LR models have been showing this for days now. (cough NAEFS cough)
This is all verified inside 180 hours This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Jan 13 2012, 11:52 PM |
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Jan 13 2012, 11:56 PM
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#14
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,271 Joined: 18-January 08 Member No.: 12,660 |
QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 14 2012, 12:37 AM) ewwwww.....multiple runs in a row now show the piece after this storm torching the entire nation in a zonal flow (980 MB low in N. Dakota 10 degree C line rockets to Chicago) before the next......WARM...shot comes in....not surprised given the LR models have been showing this for days now. (cough NAEFS cough) This is all verified inside 180 hours Sledding with the kids this weekend before the torch starts. Wow looks really toasty to FEB |
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Jan 14 2012, 12:01 AM
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 10,996 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Columbus Member No.: 13,767 |
QUOTE(cary67 @ Jan 13 2012, 11:56 PM) Sledding with the kids this weekend before the torch starts. Wow looks really toasty to FEB Good idea....hopefully you dont lose ALL your snow pack monday and it can stick around for next week before the return to the winter that never was. i feel like I should be bask in the 1 1/2'' in the front yard just to keep memory 
This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Jan 14 2012, 12:02 AM |
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Jan 14 2012, 12:24 AM
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 872 Joined: 15-January 11 From: Wyandot, OH Member No.: 25,110 |
I'm gassing up the Lawn Mower and buying Bug Spray. One week you freeze your "bleep" off and the next it's Pink Flamingo weather.
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Jan 14 2012, 11:16 AM
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 10,996 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Columbus Member No.: 13,767 |
breaks off a little earlier than before, (no meaning reallly)
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Jan 14 2012, 11:20 AM
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 10,996 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Columbus Member No.: 13,767 |
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Jan 14 2012, 11:21 AM
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#19
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 10,996 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Columbus Member No.: 13,767 |
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Jan 14 2012, 11:21 AM
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 10,996 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Columbus Member No.: 13,767 |
another piece breaks off and "inherits" the first piece....creating a nice 1008MB clipper
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