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> Jan. 19-21 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 days]
Gilbertfly
post Jan 13 2012, 04:29 PM
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something that's been around for a few days on the models. . .days may have to be adjusted at some point.... but, at the moment it looks like an over-running event trying to (and in some cases able to) build an SLP...

Attached Image


This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Jan 16 2012, 10:08 PM
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WeatherMonger
post Jan 13 2012, 04:32 PM
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QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2012

NO GLARING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z MODELS THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...WITH A FEW DIFFERENCES ON TUESDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM. A
WIDER SPREAD IS IN SOLUTIONS IS EVIDENT FOR THE THURSDAY SYSTEM
BTWN THE GFS/ECMWF. OVERALL...WEIGHTED THE FORECAST ABOUT 70 PCT
GFS/30 PCT ECMWF.


A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
IL. A QUICK PUNCH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH AIR TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN OUR AREA.
AT THIS POINT...AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA.
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WeatherMonger
post Jan 13 2012, 04:33 PM
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easton229
post Jan 13 2012, 04:47 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jan 13 2012, 04:33 PM) *


SEMI out of the heavier stuff once again...Glad this is a few days off hopefully we can get something out of this.
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rifej7386
post Jan 13 2012, 04:48 PM
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More eye candy but this time we have a little bit of evidence left on our face from the last snack.


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McDude
post Jan 13 2012, 04:57 PM
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looks like another storm out in west coast that most likely will be coming our way
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jhampsten
post Jan 13 2012, 05:09 PM
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12z GFS had a bigger system around the 180 hour timeframe too, something to watch indeed


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Formally jhamps10

Weekday home Charleston, IL at EIU

Weekend home Flora, IL
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 13 2012, 08:05 PM
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looks like broken off pieces of energy moving through clipper like on the GFS runs

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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 13 2012, 09:55 PM
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ILN

QUOTE
WITH A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW HOWEVER SOME
RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE BACK INTO
THE FA FOR FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN FRIDAY
NIGHT.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 13 2012, 11:26 PM
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this will quickly become the feature thread by tomorrow based on the lack of winter in the previous two storms. Given the multiple pieces that break away and come through....next week is gonna be a thread nightmare to keep straight





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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 13 2012, 11:27 PM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 13 2012, 11:31 PM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 13 2012, 11:37 PM
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ewwwww.....multiple runs in a row now show the piece after this storm torching the entire nation in a zonal flow (980 MB low in N. Dakota 10 degree C line rockets to Chicago) before the next......WARM...shot comes in....not surprised given the LR models have been showing this for days now. (cough NAEFS cough)

This is all verified inside 180 hours

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cary67
post Jan 13 2012, 11:56 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 14 2012, 12:37 AM) *
ewwwww.....multiple runs in a row now show the piece after this storm torching the entire nation in a zonal flow (980 MB low in N. Dakota 10 degree C line rockets to Chicago) before the next......WARM...shot comes in....not surprised given the LR models have been showing this for days now. (cough NAEFS cough)

This is all verified inside 180 hours

Sledding with the kids this weekend before the torch starts. Wow looks really toasty to FEB
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 14 2012, 12:01 AM
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QUOTE(cary67 @ Jan 13 2012, 11:56 PM) *
Sledding with the kids this weekend before the torch starts. Wow looks really toasty to FEB

Good idea....hopefully you dont lose ALL your snow pack monday and it can stick around for next week before the return to the winter that never was.

i feel like I should be bask in the 1 1/2'' in the front yard just to keep memory laugh.gif

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rifej7386
post Jan 14 2012, 12:24 AM
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I'm gassing up the Lawn Mower and buying Bug Spray. One week you freeze your "bleep" off and the next it's Pink Flamingo weather.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 14 2012, 11:16 AM
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breaks off a little earlier than before, (no meaning reallly)

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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 14 2012, 11:20 AM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 14 2012, 11:21 AM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 14 2012, 11:21 AM
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another piece breaks off and "inherits" the first piece....creating a nice 1008MB clipper
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