 Jan. 22-25 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Please Post In OBS Thread |
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 Jan 14 2012, 03:07 PM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 748 Joined: 18-May 10 From: Tulsa, OK Member No.: 22,798  |
-------------------- Best model sites:
InstantWeatherMaps (GFS, NAM, RUC, fast ECMWF... Best free weather site period) Wundermap (ECMWF... only free site with Euro QPFs) PSU eWall (Everything else... great site for ensembles) |
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Jan 14 2012, 03:32 PM
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#2
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,479 Joined: 7-December 10 From: Chicago Member No.: 24,567 |
12z GFS Hour 216
Attached thumbnail(s)
-------------------- My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com
2013 Severe Weather Season Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4 Slight Risk Days: 4 Moderate Risk Days: 0 High Risk Days: 0 Annual Snowfall 2012-2013: 37.5'' QUOTE When looking at the models: Trends, trends, trends! |
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Jan 14 2012, 03:52 PM
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,426 Joined: 21-January 10 From: Paducah, Ky Member No.: 21,017 |
Euro has it bringing in some cold air & pausing the torch temporarily so I'll take it.
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Jan 14 2012, 03:54 PM
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#4
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 873 Joined: 15-January 11 From: Wyandot, OH Member No.: 25,110 |
Oh Boy...
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Jan 14 2012, 04:28 PM
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#5
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Rank: Whirlwind Group: Member Posts: 28 Joined: 23-January 08 From: cincinnati,oh Member No.: 12,964 |
QUOTE(grace @ Jan 14 2012, 03:52 PM)  Euro has it bringing in some cold air & pausing the torch temporarily so I'll take it. And a monkey just flew out my butt too
-------------------- Home of "INFINITY DOPPLER RADAR"
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Jan 14 2012, 11:54 PM
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#6
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 873 Joined: 15-January 11 From: Wyandot, OH Member No.: 25,110 |
0z GFS tonight has the Torch beginning in this time frame and everything getting shoved up into Canada. A juicy system develops from the South but it is a major Torch as of now.
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Jan 15 2012, 12:05 AM
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#7
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 10,997 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Columbus Member No.: 13,767 |
this is going to be an incredible time for those in the northern ice box and Canada, one sub 990 after another skirting the country border.
First image is this particular storm.......second image is the next for the same area...in less than a week   |
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Jan 15 2012, 02:23 AM
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#8
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,457 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413 |
0z Euro looks like the 12z but more south and colder...
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Jan 15 2012, 03:03 AM
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#9
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,581 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 |
QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 15 2012, 12:05 AM) this is going to be an incredible time for those in the northern ice box and Canada, one sub 990 after another skirting the country border. First image is this particular storm.......second image is the next for the same area...in less than a week Actually the first image had no thread for it until now. Just made one Here. The second image is the storm dedicated to this thread. -------------------- # of T-Storm Watches:2
# of Tornado Watches: # of T-Storm Warnings: # of Tornado Warnings: |
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Jan 15 2012, 09:42 AM
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#10
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
Group Page
QUOTE I'm seeing the storm for the last week of January come into view on the Euro. Until then, the transient shots continue.
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Jan 15 2012, 06:45 PM
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#11
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 10,997 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Columbus Member No.: 13,767 |
todays GFS runs show a beautiful severe weather event possibility
12z  18z 
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Jan 15 2012, 06:56 PM
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#12
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 117 Joined: 23-February 08 From: Royal Oak, MI Member No.: 13,928 |
From DTX (they don't see any storms coming)
AFTER A BRIEF RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLIPPER...THE PATTERN BEGINS AN ABRUPT SHIFT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH ONE LAST BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A MILDER AIRMASS...WHICH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO THE EAST OF A BUILDING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST. WHILE THERE MAY BE MINOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS MILDER AIR IN THE REGION...NO NOTABLE STORMS APPEAR IN THE OFFING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOURCE This post has been edited by icewoz: Jan 15 2012, 07:00 PM |
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Jan 15 2012, 07:11 PM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,451 Joined: 27-February 08 From: shelby twp,Michigan Member No.: 14,019 |
QUOTE(icewoz @ Jan 15 2012, 06:56 PM) From DTX (they don't see any storms coming) AFTER A BRIEF RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLIPPER...THE PATTERN BEGINS AN ABRUPT SHIFT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH ONE LAST BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A MILDER AIRMASS...WHICH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO THE EAST OF A BUILDING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST. WHILE THERE MAY BE MINOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS MILDER AIR IN THE REGION...NO NOTABLE STORMS APPEAR IN THE OFFING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOURCE Typical of some of the dtx forecasters, In fairness after reading the whole thing they mention several bouts of light snow thru the next 7 days but with little specifics and why would they at this point. They normally would not mention anything in the 7-10 day time frame anyway. Just too far out as of right now. Not sure if you mean they see no storms at all or just not this one but it seems just the one for this thread is not mentioned. This post has been edited by Royalflush06: Jan 15 2012, 07:35 PM |
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Jan 16 2012, 12:43 AM
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#14
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 117 Joined: 23-February 08 From: Royal Oak, MI Member No.: 13,928 |
Just this storm.
Quite honestly, a so called snow storm with less than 4" really isn't a storm to me, it's just a nusiance. :-) QUOTE(Royalflush06 @ Jan 15 2012, 07:11 PM) Typical of some of the dtx forecasters, In fairness after reading the whole thing they mention several bouts of light snow thru the next 7 days but with little specifics and why would they at this point. They normally would not mention anything in the 7-10 day time frame anyway. Just too far out as of right now. Not sure if you mean they see no storms at all or just not this one but it seems just the one for this thread is not mentioned.
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Jan 16 2012, 10:28 AM
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#15
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 888 Joined: 8-January 09 From: New Baltimore, MI Member No.: 16,814 |
QUOTE(icewoz @ Jan 16 2012, 12:43 AM) Just this storm. Quite honestly, a so called snow storm with less than 4" really isn't a storm to me, it's just a nusiance. :-) This year around these parts, anything over 1" is a snowstorm. |
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Jan 16 2012, 02:52 PM
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#16
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,535 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
Skilling is talking about this one on his facebook page. For some reason I cannot get a nonmobile page on my phone, no copy and paste without. He also has some talk about the above normal temps set to last through the 15 day forecast, cold shots are still possible. Looks bleak for anything lasting
www.facebook.com/TomSkilling This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Jan 16 2012, 02:54 PM |
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Jan 16 2012, 04:36 PM
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#17
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 178 Joined: 16-February 09 From: Port Huron, MI Member No.: 17,602 |
This will be rain. On another note I finally broke the double digits for snowfall total this season thanks to some lake effect on Saturday evening, woohoo
This post has been edited by pohosnowlover: Jan 16 2012, 04:40 PM -------------------- Winter 2012-2013 snowfall: 44.5"
Winter 2011-2012 snowfall: 22" Winter 2010-2011 snowfall: 46" |
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Jan 16 2012, 06:58 PM
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#18
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,146 Joined: 22-January 09 From: Paragon IN Member No.: 17,052 |
Meteorologist Mike Hoffman
The brief warmup is obviously here...we'll be above freezing through early afternoon on Tuesday, then much colder air comes in again. Just light drizzle is expected this evening, then times of rain and fog overnight and into Tuesday morning...but it all turns to snow by Tuesday afternoon and night. 1"-3" sounds reasonable to me for the lake-effect areas...less south and west. I mentioned last week that the computer models don't "catch" the cold air in these cases, and we're seeing it again. Suddenly, all the models are going much colder, which we've had all along for this week. The longer range shows milder air again by Sunday and Monday, and next week is a toss-up...it could be a rollercoaster...or we could stay mild or cold most of the time. I still believe that February will be a colder weather pattern.... http://www.facebook.com/pages/Meteorologis...102135746533985 -------------------- Snow Storm
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Blizzard Warning 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 |
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Jan 16 2012, 08:17 PM
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#19
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 191 Joined: 13-May 09 From: Olathe, KS Member No.: 18,211 |
CODE The next shot of precipitation may come early next week with models showing a deep trough coming out of the southwest. This seems to correspond to the arctic oscillation heading to more of a neutral to slightly negative outlook per the GFS ensemble data which would indicate colder temperatures for the area. But this is well into the future and beyond the scope/timeframe of this forecast so we`ll continue to monitor trends and see how the pattern evolves over the next 7-8 days. EAX Outlook. -------------------- My dick is bigger than yours!
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Jan 16 2012, 08:43 PM
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#20
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 542 Joined: 7-June 08 From: Incheon, Korea Member No.: 15,042 |
Ahhh I was hoping for a break with this storm. Maybe there's still hope lol.
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 23rd May 2013 - 08:57 PM |