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> January 19th-20th Mid-Atlantic/NE Great Flizzard of 2012, Possibility:Medium Range [4-7 Days Out] Forecast
Weatherjunkie
post Jan 15 2012, 04:23 PM
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I'm surprised no one has picked up on this considering it may very well be the best chance of snow for many this month.


Attached Image


Weak shortwave troughing with LP area passing to the north and FROPA precip coming through.

I expect full Flizzard conditions to pick up in Pitt-Buff by 10 AM Thursday expanding eastward to DC-Philly-NYC by 2-3 PM. Surface temps right around freezing for I-95, but at this point, given the set-up I've decided to place them in my potential jackpot zone of 16-20 flakes outside of normal LES areas which may pick up a few inches.

Keep your fingers crossed there's no dry slot given the delicate nature of the storm. I'd recommend you by batteries, a radio, flashlight, non-perishable foods, and water because this one will be a doozy.

May mother nature show her mercy on us all....no, seriously....give me the 60 degree weather again

This post has been edited by Weatherjunkie: Jan 15 2012, 04:24 PM


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Niyologist
post Jan 15 2012, 04:36 PM
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laugh.gif


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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 15 2012, 04:41 PM
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QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Jan 15 2012, 04:23 PM) *
I'm surprised no one has picked up on this considering it may very well be the best chance of snow for many this month.


Attached Image


Weak shortwave troughing with LP area passing to the north and FROPA precip coming through.

I expect full Flizzard conditions to pick up in Pitt-Buff by 10 AM Thursday expanding eastward to DC-Philly-NYC by 2-3 PM. Surface temps right around freezing for I-95, but at this point, given the set-up I've decided to place them in my potential jackpot zone of 16-20 flakes outside of normal LES areas which may pick up a few inches.

Keep your fingers crossed there's no dry slot given the delicate nature of the storm. I'd recommend you by batteries, a radio, flashlight, non-perishable foods, and water because this one will be a doozy.

May mother nature show her mercy on us all....no, seriously....give me the 60 degree weather again

I just came back from the store... I got all of the supplies I need and I'm officially prepared for the 6-10 incoming flakes, along with a weather radio that is broadcasting the Flizzard Watch currently in effect laugh.gif


--------------------
Visit my weather website for the NYC area

Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"):
11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4"

Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"):
06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5",
09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches
12-13: 36.6"
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Undertakerson
post Jan 15 2012, 05:21 PM
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unsure.gif You mean I may double my January snowfall totals?

Dang, I just put the snowblower back under its tarp.
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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 15 2012, 05:59 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 15 2012, 05:21 PM) *
unsure.gif You mean I may double my January snowfall totals?

Dang, I just put the snowblower back under its tarp.

That's a bit of an understatement for some - even 1000 times my January snow to date would still be 0 inches laugh.gif


--------------------
Visit my weather website for the NYC area

Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"):
11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4"

Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"):
06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5",
09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches
12-13: 36.6"
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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 15 2012, 08:46 PM
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If you thought the GFS was the Great Flizzard of 2012, wait until you see the DGEX's Biblical East Coast Flizzard (BECF) which would shut down the entire I-95 corridor between Philly and NYC for weeks with stores out of supplies laugh.gif

Attached Image


This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Jan 15 2012, 08:46 PM


--------------------
Visit my weather website for the NYC area

Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"):
11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4"

Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"):
06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5",
09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches
12-13: 36.6"
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WEATHERFAN100
post Jan 17 2012, 05:43 PM
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Haven't been so excited for a dusting/coating ever in my life. Until now. Heck even anything over ONE FLAKE of snow would make me a bit more happy!

On another note, this better pan out laugh.gif

This post has been edited by WEATHERFAN100: Jan 17 2012, 05:44 PM


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Severe Warnings:1
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Tornado Warnings:
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phillyPete
post Jan 17 2012, 06:52 PM
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I love this thread.
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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 17 2012, 08:20 PM
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18z GEFS individual members for anyone who's interested:

Attached Image




--------------------
Visit my weather website for the NYC area

Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"):
11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4"

Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"):
06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5",
09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches
12-13: 36.6"
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JrNOVAMet
post Jan 17 2012, 08:52 PM
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Is it April Fools' Day already? laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 17 2012, 09:38 PM
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The 0z NAM is a bit drier than the previous run across most of the region, though interestingly NYC still sees about 0.1" QPF this run:

Attached Image





--------------------
Visit my weather website for the NYC area

Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"):
11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4"

Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"):
06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5",
09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches
12-13: 36.6"
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sw03181
post Jan 17 2012, 09:43 PM
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May I make a suggestion?

Can we use this thread to talk only about the Thursday clipper and the other thread for this timeframe only for the overrunning event on Saturday?


--------------------
Rob
Member of the 30" Club
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2012-2013 Winter Wx predictions:
Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 39.5"
50+ Degree Days since Dec. 1: 10


Winter Wx. Events:
11/7-11/9: 7"
11/27-11/29: T
11/30: T (flurries)
12/22: T (lake-effect)
12/24: 1" (clipper)
12/27: 5" (turned to slop)
12/29-12/30: 10" (resulted in 2 week snowpack)
1/16: 4"
1/21:T (norlun)
1/25-1/26: T
1/28: 2"
2/1-2/3:T
2/5: T
2013 North American Blizzard: 32" (all-time record)
2/13: T
2/16: 2"
Various T events up to 3/2: .5"
3/6-3/8: 17"
3/18-3/19: 4.5"

10/29/11, 10/29/12, and 2/8-9/13: Never forget
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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 17 2012, 09:45 PM
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QUOTE(sw03181 @ Jan 17 2012, 09:43 PM) *
May I make a suggestion?

Can we use this thread to talk only about the Thursday clipper and the other thread for this timeframe only for the overrunning event on Saturday?

That's what I assume the original purpose of this thread was...


--------------------
Visit my weather website for the NYC area

Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"):
11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4"

Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"):
06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5",
09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches
12-13: 36.6"
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cheesetaco7
post Jan 17 2012, 10:12 PM
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Matt Noyes just posted his accumulation map for Thursday night. Says *at least* 2" for all of SNE. Surprised there isn't more excitement over this..

http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weath...plowable-s.html

This post has been edited by cheesetaco7: Jan 17 2012, 10:12 PM
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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 17 2012, 10:17 PM
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QUOTE(cheesetaco7 @ Jan 17 2012, 10:12 PM) *
Matt Noyes just posted his accumulation map for Thursday night. Says *at least* 2" for all of SNE. Surprised there isn't more excitement over this..

http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weath...plowable-s.html

Interesting map... I mainly agree with the 2+ inch snow potential zone, although I would've extended the coating further south to at least NYC, it doesn't make sense to me how there happens to be such a sharp cutoff just NE of NYC, with the majority of the models showing the southern edge of the snow dropping a bit south near NYC, not going further NE.


--------------------
Visit my weather website for the NYC area

Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"):
11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4"

Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"):
06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5",
09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches
12-13: 36.6"
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sw03181
post Jan 17 2012, 10:47 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jan 17 2012, 10:17 PM) *
Interesting map... I mainly agree with the 2+ inch snow potential zone, although I would've extended the coating further south to at least NYC, it doesn't make sense to me how there happens to be such a sharp cutoff just NE of NYC, with the majority of the models showing the southern edge of the snow dropping a bit south near NYC, not going further NE.

The low is supposed to intensify off the coast. That could explain the cutoff in the Hudson Valley.


--------------------
Rob
Member of the 30" Club
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2012-2013 Winter Wx predictions:
Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 39.5"
50+ Degree Days since Dec. 1: 10


Winter Wx. Events:
11/7-11/9: 7"
11/27-11/29: T
11/30: T (flurries)
12/22: T (lake-effect)
12/24: 1" (clipper)
12/27: 5" (turned to slop)
12/29-12/30: 10" (resulted in 2 week snowpack)
1/16: 4"
1/21:T (norlun)
1/25-1/26: T
1/28: 2"
2/1-2/3:T
2/5: T
2013 North American Blizzard: 32" (all-time record)
2/13: T
2/16: 2"
Various T events up to 3/2: .5"
3/6-3/8: 17"
3/18-3/19: 4.5"

10/29/11, 10/29/12, and 2/8-9/13: Never forget
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LoveNYCSnow
post Jan 17 2012, 11:06 PM
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gfs also says the clipper is for eastern NE and eastern LI. NYC tri state gets basically nothing.
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New England Stor...
post Jan 17 2012, 11:39 PM
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From: Halifax Mass
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Wow, 2 inches of snow huh if that works out it is the most snow imby during this year.


--------------------
Weather 2012-2013
Oct 28-29 Sandy Gust to 60MPH
Oct 29 Thunder storms
Dec 29 2.8 inch of snow
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SnowMan11
post Jan 17 2012, 11:59 PM
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0z GEFS has .10 for the NYC area with more in NE.


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Anthony
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SnowMan11
post Jan 18 2012, 09:29 AM
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12z Nam has a nice little burst of snow from the clipper for NYC.


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Anthony
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