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> SE Pattern Change After Late January Spring Preview?, Long Range Model Prediction to SE Cold Snowy Pattern In Feb.
winterwarlock
post Jan 16 2012, 03:05 PM
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"After a Preview of Spring for End of January, Colder Pattern Likely for February"

By Allan Huffman, Raleigh Weather Examiner

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh...ly-for-february

Hope this is a Real Pattern changed we all have been waiting for because time is running out for snow to fall and then stay around for a few days after!



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SNOW LOVER IN SOUTH EASTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL VA, ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF EMPORIA, VA
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31B militaryPoli...
post Jan 16 2012, 07:14 PM
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Hopefully...

FWIW the Euro weeklies look good for the Eastern US as we enter February.

GaWx on American:

QUOTE
Folks,
Hot off the press *fwiw*. Sure enough, the brand new Euro weeklies are again going with the trend of -NAO in the first half of Feb. They actually suggest a very strong 500 mb warm anomaly centered from S. Greenland into NE Canada and much of N. Canada. The SE US actually has slightly BELOW (yes, you read that correctly) anomalies and the coldest anomalies in just about all of N. America outside of Alaska! eeping hope that this entire winter will not be in the commode but still accepting whatever happens

In week 4, the strongest warm 500 mb anomalies stretch from S. Greenland to NNE Canada north of Hudson Bay. Virtually all of Canada, all of Greenland and the north Atlantic, and the western 2/3 of the US have warm anomalies. Cold is found in most all of Europe. Also, strong cold is centered over the far western Aleutians with below normal over Alaska, the north Pacific, and E. Asia. The eastern 1/3 of the U.S. eastward to Europe as well as MX have slightly below normal anomalies. This could mean storminess near the SE US with the strong block to the north.


The GFS and it's ensembles show the NAO going negative in the long range.


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Bring on the blocking, preferably West Based.
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Weather4LA
post Jan 18 2012, 07:09 PM
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I sure hope it will be cooler for February. We have yet to see accumulating snowfall over here! Granted, it's not unusual to have a snowless winter here, but we've had them for at least the past two winters, so I guess I'm spoiled.


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"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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Removed_Member_weathertree4u_*
post Jan 19 2012, 06:01 AM
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QUOTE(Weather4LA @ Jan 18 2012, 06:09 PM) *
I sure hope it will be cooler for February. We have yet to see accumulating snowfall over here! Granted, it's not unusual to have a snowless winter here, but we've had them for at least the past two winters, so I guess I'm spoiled.


Out of curiusity, you didnt get any snow the last two seasons? The last two years were full of systems that went unusually far South and missed the TN Valley
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Removed_Member_weathertree4u_*
post Jan 19 2012, 06:02 AM
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QUOTE(31B militaryPolice @ Jan 16 2012, 06:14 PM) *
Hopefully...

FWIW the Euro weeklies look good for the Eastern US as we enter February.

GaWx on American:
The GFS and it's ensembles show the NAO going negative in the long range.


Not to be a wet blanket but the GFS always shows the pattern change in the long range then when we get to the long range it is not cold but suppose to be cold in the long range!
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Weather4LA
post Jan 19 2012, 12:01 PM
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QUOTE(weathertree4u @ Jan 19 2012, 05:01 AM) *
Out of curiusity, you didnt get any snow the last two seasons? The last two years were full of systems that went unusually far South and missed the TN Valley

Oops!! Sorry, what I meant to say there was that the last two years we had accumulating snow over here, and so therefore I am spoiled. Sorry about the ambiguous language there!


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"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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mulligan
post Jan 21 2012, 03:41 PM
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QUOTE(31B militaryPolice @ Jan 16 2012, 08:14 PM) *
Hopefully...

FWIW the Euro weeklies look good for the Eastern US as we enter February.

GaWx on American:
The GFS and it's ensembles show the NAO going negative in the long range.



Good news?
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31B militaryPoli...
post Jan 26 2012, 05:02 PM
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12Z guidance in better agreement now with ridging out to the West and a trough somewhere in the east as we move into Feb. GFS has been suggesting this for a couple of days now, while the Euro has been burying a cut-off out the West keeping ridging over the East. Here is the latest 12Z Day 8-10 500MB Mean. The GFS has the ridge axis positioned over the Rockies which in return would keep a more dry NW flow aloft over portions of the South with the Eastern trough axis positioned over the eastern seaboard. The Euro is further west and sharper with the ridge axis, which in return has the trough in a more ideal spot for our areas, positioned over the Deep South. Euro at Day 8 looks good with a tall PNA ridge and some energy diving down into the Deep South. Things will change, but guidance is now in better agreement with a ridge in west, trough in east. Positioning of the ridge will be key...



12Z Euro ensembles are in a general agreement with the OP as well...






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Bring on the blocking, preferably West Based.
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31B militaryPoli...
post Jan 27 2012, 12:01 PM
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Models really starting to look good...12Z GFS drops PV into SE Canada, with ridging out West and Greenland blocking... Cold past hour 180...February starting to look good for the east.

This post has been edited by 31B militaryPolice: Jan 27 2012, 12:04 PM


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Bring on the blocking, preferably West Based.
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Mid Tn. Man
post Jan 27 2012, 12:09 PM
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To bad it's not 3 or 4 days out,we've been teased all winter


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Weather4LA
post Jan 27 2012, 12:11 PM
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For what it's worth... rolleyes.gif

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcont...p;prevImage=yes


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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Mid Tn. Man
post Jan 27 2012, 12:25 PM
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QUOTE(Weather4LA @ Jan 27 2012, 11:11 AM) *



FWIW




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Weather4LA
post Jan 27 2012, 02:26 PM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Jan 27 2012, 11:25 AM) *
FWIW


Sorry, I didn't know exactly how to upload the image, but thanks for that one!


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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31B militaryPoli...
post Jan 27 2012, 04:59 PM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Jan 27 2012, 12:09 PM) *
To bad it's not 3 or 4 days out,we've been teased all winter


True, the one thing I like though is consistency and support the models are showing right now. While this is still around 180 hours or so away, we at least aren't talking about 240+ hours away.

Looking at the 12Z Guidance today it appears we start to see ridging and increasing heights out west once we begin February. Our next time frame to watch looks to be Feb 2-4, GFS drops a short wave trough down the Central Plains into the Southeast, and because of the placement and sharpness of the ridge out west the trough continues to slide out to sea and we don't really get anything going for us other than some light snow/flurries on the back side. Place the PNA ridge further West, sharpen it up a little so it can dig further south, and we might be on to something. Reaching for straws there though...GFS keeps +PNA through the run with heights up into far NW Canada. The 300hr frame of the GFS would be an ideal look at 500MB for some wintry weather across our region. The 12Z GFS ensembles are in good agreement with the OP. 12Z CMC really amps up the ridge and it has some wintry weather for the northern portions of the Southeast in the Feb 2-4 time period. At hour 180 we have some energy sliding down the ridge over the Central Plains. 12Z Euro wasn't as impressive as the 0Z run, but it's still in good agreement with the rest of the models in popping a +PNA early Feb.

0Z 8-10 day mean

12Z 8-10 day mean

12Z GFS 168

12Z GFS 300





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Bring on the blocking, preferably West Based.
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31B militaryPoli...
post Jan 27 2012, 05:02 PM
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12Z GFS Ensembles mean


12Z Euro 168


12Z Euro ensembles mean



12Z CMC




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Bring on the blocking, preferably West Based.
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Poppyh
post Jan 27 2012, 05:08 PM
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LOL Your maps blew the margins, think NC will get any of this?
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31B militaryPoli...
post Jan 27 2012, 05:49 PM
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QUOTE(Poppyh @ Jan 27 2012, 05:08 PM) *
LOL Your maps blew the margins, think NC will get any of this?


Too early to tell, kind of a what and see thing. Have to see how the evolution of +PNA, ifit occurs. GFS past two runs has been giving NC some snow early Feb FWIW.


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Bring on the blocking, preferably West Based.
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Poppyh
post Jan 27 2012, 05:57 PM
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QUOTE(31B militaryPolice @ Jan 27 2012, 05:49 PM) *
Too early to tell, kind of a what and see thing. Have to see how the evolution of +PNA, ifit occurs. GFS past two runs has been giving NC some snow early Feb FWIW.




Thank You, I was wondering about that I know nothing, LOL about maps and such, I mainly lurk and read and try to learn a little something, Im in Charlotte and the forcast on Feb 5 is for freezing rain at night with a low of 21 Im just waiting and seeing we don't see too much in way of winter weather here in Charlotte, It usually doesn't stick aroung long if we do get something, It is nice to see a pretty snowfall tho
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31B militaryPoli...
post Jan 27 2012, 06:13 PM
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Long range looks good on 18Z GFS. Too early to get too excited right now, but I'm starting to feel pretty confident that Feb may be a good month for us. GFS has had quite the impressive heights out west, with the ridge all the up into far NW Canada. PV rotating in SE Canada keeping the storm track suppressed,and helping to establish possible blocking/-NAO (300+ hours out though). We are going to have to take this day by day, to see how the +PNA develops, position and sharpness plays an important role...

Based on latest model guidance over the past couple of days, if they are even remotely close to what they are depicting, I'll be shocked if we go through Feb without at least one major snow for someone in this region...


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Mid Tn. Man
post Jan 27 2012, 09:01 PM
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
704 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2012/

DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE 3 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURED A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WESTERN IOWA...CENTRAL KANSAS...TO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. A MILD...ZONAL PACIFIC AIRMASS RESIDES BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE OR DEW POINT ON EITHER SIDE. THE
WIND IS THE BIGGER STORY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 45 KNOTS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO A 1038 MB HIGH BUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT. THAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE THE STORY FOR THE MIDSOUTH AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
WON/T BE QUITE AS STRONG...BUT GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH APPEAR
PROBABLE. INCREASING CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT ALREADY TODAY WITH
THAT TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE FROPA. DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE A PRECIP PRODUCER...EXCEPT PERHAPS A SMALL RISK OF LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS
IN MISSOURI/ILLINOIS. REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES RESIDING IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER...BUT NOTHING DRASTIC FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. DRY ADIABATIC CONDITIONS AND 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 0C
FAVOR MID TO UPPER 40S AT THE SURFACE. THUS...FOLLOWED THE COOLER
SIDE OF MOS.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES WITH A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
NO MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF SO CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST AND BECOME THE BERMUDA VARIETY FOR THE
EXTENDED. A PROLONGED FETCH OF CARIBBEAN AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY
NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING. THE WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT DOESN/T LEND WELL TO
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT MORE SPOTTY STUFF. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS APPEAR TO DEVELOP A SYSTEM NEAR THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD
PROVIDE MORE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY...THUS HIGHEST POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED DURING THIS PERIOD.

LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP TROUGH TO DIG
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND BEYOND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW TO
BITE ON ATTM.


Good to see some disco talk already anyways,to early to bite though,but hard not to be enthusiastic rolleyes.gif


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