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> SE Pattern Change After Late January Spring Preview?, Long Range Model Prediction to SE Cold Snowy Pattern In Feb.
Mid Tn. Man
post Jan 27 2012, 11:54 PM
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0Z=We should have expected this mad.gif


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31B militaryPoli...
post Jan 27 2012, 11:59 PM
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0Z GFS continues the consistency and develops the western ridge around Feb 2. Change with the short wave trough with the Feb 2-4 storm, it really digs it further SW down into the Gulf. Almost get a closed low, but it doesn't materialize...If it were to close off we would be in business. Expect some changes with this system over the next few days. Models look to also develop a split flow like pattern in the long range, +PNA still present.


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Mid Tn. Man
post Jan 28 2012, 12:11 AM
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QUOTE(31B militaryPolice @ Jan 27 2012, 10:59 PM) *
0Z GFS continues the consistency and develops the western ridge around Feb 2. Change with the short wave trough with the Feb 2-4 storm, it really digs it further SW down into the Gulf. Almost get a closed low, but it doesn't materialize...If it were to close off we would be in business. Expect some changes with this system over the next few days. Models look to also develop a split flow like pattern in the long range, +PNA still present.


Good thing about the GFS is the HPC is weighing heavily on the ECMWF to day 3


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Hertz
post Jan 28 2012, 12:24 AM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Jan 27 2012, 11:54 PM) *
0Z=We should have expected this mad.gif


Still 850mb's across the north are subzero Feb 7th onwards. Better than most of this winter. SE is mild but no raginig SE ridges, just typical warmer temps there versus elsewhere.


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Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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Hertz
post Jan 28 2012, 12:30 AM
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The 00Z GFS is a disappointment compared to previous runs, but keep in mind it's most prone to overestimating the cold. It's still no torch!


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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Mid Tn. Man
post Jan 28 2012, 02:09 AM
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ECMWF lost the trough in the SE,no surprise the way this winter has been.


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31B militaryPoli...
post Jan 28 2012, 02:23 AM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Jan 28 2012, 02:09 AM) *
ECMWF lost the trough in the SE,no surprise the way this winter has been.


Yea, it isn't as deep as the GFS, but it's entire 5H look is different than it's previous 12Z run...Run is colder to after 168 hours with what looks like another cold shot coming in at 240.

0Z Euro at 168

12/27 12Z Euro at 168


Ukie at 144 has the ridge further west with trough digging into four corners region.



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31B militaryPoli...
post Jan 28 2012, 02:26 AM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Jan 28 2012, 02:09 AM) *
ECMWF lost the trough in the SE,no surprise the way this winter has been.


Yea, it isn't as deep as the GFS, but it's entire 5H look is different than it's previous 12Z run...Run is colder to after 168 hours with what looks like another cold shot coming in at 240.

0Z Euro at 168

12/27 12Z Euro at 168


Ukie at 144 has the ridge further west with trough digging into four corners region.



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Mid Tn. Man
post Jan 28 2012, 11:42 AM
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GFS 12Z showing a lil everything for the SE,SNOW,severe probs,you name it,it's got it


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31B militaryPoli...
post Jan 28 2012, 11:53 AM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Jan 28 2012, 11:42 AM) *
GFS 12Z showing a lil everything for the SE,SNOW,severe probs,you name it,it's got it


Haha yes it does...12Z Came in with a further west ridge, and dropped the trough into the four corner's region similar to the 0Z Ukmet. Unlike the 6Z GFS where we got a closed low in the south, this run closes it further to our NW. 5H and surface low tracks to the GL, seems weird with the 1040+ MB high to our north though...Will have to see how the rest of the model guidance handles this system today. LR still looks cold for the east...very impressive ridge on the GFS with the axis all the way up into Alaska at 300.


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Weather4LA
post Jan 28 2012, 05:52 PM
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18Z looks interesting, but not as aggressive with the cold air in the later hours of its run, unfortunately.


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"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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31B militaryPoli...
post Jan 29 2012, 12:26 PM
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12Z GFS still coming in with tall ridge our west, even closes it off at 5H in Western Canada. Model still suggesting a split-flow in the medium to long range, with PV dropping into SE Canada.


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31B militaryPoli...
post Jan 29 2012, 02:14 PM
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12Z Euro has a winter storm for some in the Southeast. Strong damming signal showing up next weekend. LR still looks good, impressive heights out West with vortex in Canada...fun times might be in store for us in Feb.

12Z Euro


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31B militaryPoli...
post Jan 29 2012, 06:13 PM
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GFS still showing a split flow pattern after day 7. Closed high over western Canada, with vortex still showing up in SE Canada. Position of the PV will help keep storm track suppressed as well as help establish a -AO/-NAO, and with split flow pattern over running events can be possible.







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Mid Tn. Man
post Jan 30 2012, 07:09 AM
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2PbT_o746w


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Mid Tn. Man
post Jan 30 2012, 12:01 PM
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huh.gif


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31B militaryPoli...
post Jan 30 2012, 04:14 PM
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12Z model guidance still looks good in the long range. Impressive ridge out west with deep trough in the east. PV in eastern Canada, note like Mid Tn Man posted the OP GFS does have a positive NAO showing up, with PV positioned where it is we can still get a more suppressed storm track. The Euro looks better to me in the long range, split flow with building heights over Greenland. The 12Z GFS was even nice enough to give us a fantasy storm around day 10. Take that with a grain of salt, but the op and ensembles say to watch Feb 9-12 time period.






Attached File  test8.gif ( 104.6K ) Number of downloads: 0


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Mid Tn. Man
post Jan 31 2012, 05:26 PM
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ECMWF ENS from the 12z today is warm through 360,no hope for the SE


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31B militaryPoli...
post Jan 31 2012, 06:23 PM
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Not a bad look in the mid-long range of the 18Z GFS...PV is in a good spot with similar features of the +PNA ridge out west and of course the split flow the models develop. Towards the end of the run it develops a -NAO with blocking over GL. That's way out there though.

The 12Z Euro looked very good today. Tall PNA ridge along with GL blocking helps to trap the PV in SE Canada.



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Weather4LA
post Feb 10 2012, 01:43 PM
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Latest update from this morning from the NWS office in Jackson, MS regarding the coming cold:

"SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A TRANSITION BACK TO A
WINTER TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL BE ARRIVING JUST IN TIME FOR THE
WEEKEND. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DIVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD
BLAST THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND MID MORNING
SATURDAY. THE MASSIVE 1044MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DRIVING THE
FRONT WILL PRODUCE BRISK N WINDS ALL DAY USHERING IN WIDESPREAD LOWS
INTO THE 20S FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO INCLUDE WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS.

BEFORE THE COLD ARRIVES...OUR EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A
1024MB WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS FROM THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. WIDESPREAD MIDDLE CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY LOWERING IN ALTITUDE
ACROSS OUR CWFA WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S N TO LOWER 40S S.
A SHIELD OF ISENTROPIC-LIFTED LIGHT RAIN SPREADING NEWD INTO OUR SRN
SECTIONS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY ALONG A
E OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY THROUGH MIDDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS WAS SPREADING ANOTHER SHIELD OF SHOWERS INTO THE ARKLATEX
THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TO OUR REGION DURING THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF
STATES. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.

BY TONIGHT...THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DEPARTING ERN MS
SHORTLY AFTER DARK WITH THE INCOMING FRONT POISED TO ENTER OUR DELTA
COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT SHIFTS LIGHT NWLY
WINDS TO THE DUE N AT 15-30MPH AS IT PLOWS THROUGH THE CWFA BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE LATEST TRAJECTORY OF THE AIR MASS CENTER
TOWARD THE OZARKS SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY KEEP OUR WEEKEND SOME 15-20F BELOW THE NORMAL REGIME FOR
TEMPERATURES.

ON SATURDAY...THE BRISK N WINDS COULD REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE DELTA COUNTIES AND SERN AR BUT WILL DEFER TO
LATER FORECASTS FOR NOW. STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MAINLY 35 TO 45 WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S...
A FAR CRY FROM LAST WEEKEND/S 60S AND 70S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AN
EXTENSIVE FREEZE LASTING 12-18 HOURS WITH LOWS FROM 20-25F WILL BE
THE COLDEST SINCE MID JANUARY ACROSS OUR CWFA.


MAV MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION
WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE SATURDAY. OTHERWISE
NUMBERS GENERALLY ACCEPTED FOR TODAY WITH ABOUT A 10-20 PERCENT
BOOST IN THE POPS DUE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS."


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"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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