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> Jan. 16-17 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts and OBS
WEATHERFAN100
post Jan 16 2012, 05:07 PM
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Precipitation working it way through Central PA.
Attached Image


This post has been edited by WEATHERFAN100: Jan 16 2012, 05:09 PM


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-James
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 16 2012, 05:19 PM
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According to weatherbug its only19.1 degrees out, accuweather has me in the upper 20s lol


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western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.8"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"
2014 - 2015: 0.00"
[/size][/color]

[img]http://www.wunderground.com/swf/Rapid_Fire.swf?units=metric&station=KNJFREEH10.gif[img]
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loafer1989
post Jan 16 2012, 05:19 PM
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It's 24.3F here with incresing clouds. My area looks good for 2-3" of snowfall overnight.


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2013 / 2014 Season snowfall total: 69.5 "















Total 2012/2013 Snowfall: 102.7"
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Blizz
post Jan 16 2012, 05:21 PM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Jan 16 2012, 05:19 PM) *
According to weatherbug its only19.1 degrees out, accuweather has me in the upper 20s lol


Same. Weatherbug has me at 24.5F but accuweather has me at like 33 lol.

This post has been edited by Blizz: Jan 16 2012, 05:21 PM


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MBY Winters
Conyngham Valley, PA
Average : 47"


11-12: 21.1''
12-13: 40.0"
13-14: 65.0"
14-15: 00.0"
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sw03181
post Jan 16 2012, 05:36 PM
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QUOTE(Blizz @ Jan 16 2012, 05:21 PM) *
Same. Weatherbug has me at 24.5F but accuweather has me at like 33 lol.

Weatherbug, Wunderground, and Accuweather are all fine for my area.


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 60.95"


2014-2015 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31) :
Total snowfall: 40 /- 6"
Actual: 0.25"

11/14: 0.25"

# of SECS: 3
# of MECS: 1
# of HECS: 0
# of Ice storms: 0
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Miller A
post Jan 16 2012, 05:39 PM
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QUOTE(sw03181 @ Jan 16 2012, 05:36 PM) *
Weatherbug, Wunderground, and Accuweather are all fine for my area.


30.9, 31 and 31, resp. Seems pretty consistent to me.

This post has been edited by Miller A: Jan 16 2012, 05:40 PM


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2014-2015
11/13/114 0.50" MillerA (2.20" Wantage Trained Spotter)


FINAL
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"
TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"


Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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NE2X
post Jan 16 2012, 06:04 PM
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32.5 degrees and has been falling so slowly since the sun went down.....


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WEATHERFAN100
post Jan 16 2012, 06:24 PM
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34 degrees

Already hearing some pinging outside!


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-James
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Big Dave
post Jan 16 2012, 06:28 PM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFAN100 @ Jan 16 2012, 06:24 PM) *
34 degrees

Already hearing some pinging outside!

sleet and freezing rain getting icy already
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sw03181
post Jan 16 2012, 06:29 PM
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HRRR snowfall through hour 15:


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 60.95"


2014-2015 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31) :
Total snowfall: 40 /- 6"
Actual: 0.25"

11/14: 0.25"

# of SECS: 3
# of MECS: 1
# of HECS: 0
# of Ice storms: 0
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sw03181
post Jan 16 2012, 06:31 PM
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latest RUC total snowfall through hour 18:


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 60.95"


2014-2015 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31) :
Total snowfall: 40 /- 6"
Actual: 0.25"

11/14: 0.25"

# of SECS: 3
# of MECS: 1
# of HECS: 0
# of Ice storms: 0
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Big Dave
post Jan 16 2012, 06:34 PM
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QUOTE(Big Dave @ Jan 16 2012, 06:28 PM) *
sleet and freezing rain getting icy already

30.6 degrees dewpoint 20 my drop the temperature a couple more degrees. With the precipation falling. Evaporational cooling
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MikeySed
post Jan 16 2012, 06:44 PM
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33 here.. and ground is frozen hard in Morris County.

I think its a bit colder than expected, will it start as snow here?


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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 16 2012, 06:51 PM
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QUOTE(MikeySed @ Jan 16 2012, 06:44 PM) *
33 here.. and ground is frozen hard in Morris County.

I think its a bit colder than expected, will it start as snow here?

Almost certainly not, as 850mb temps are above freezing for most people west of NYC with the 850mb line quickly retreating east. 925mb temps, however, are still decently below freezing, so it makes sense how most of northern NJ, possibly including NYC, start out with light sleet for the first hour or two of the storm. NE NJ would then change over to rain with interior northern NJ and SE NY starting to see light freezing rain.


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telejunkie
post Jan 16 2012, 06:52 PM
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QUOTE(sw03181 @ Jan 16 2012, 06:31 PM) *
latest RUC total snowfall through hour 18:


looks like RUC is siding with the 12z NMM instead of the ARW which was very stingy with the first wave snows for the north country. Here was the 12z ARW:
Attached Image


Current temp 27F and rising. DP at 8F.


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Winter '14-'15 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 3"
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WEATHERFAN100
post Jan 16 2012, 06:52 PM
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QUOTE(MikeySed @ Jan 16 2012, 06:44 PM) *
33 here.. and ground is frozen hard in Morris County.

I think its a bit colder than expected, will it start as snow here?

Probably wintry mix of IP/Frz rain

This post has been edited by WEATHERFAN100: Jan 16 2012, 06:52 PM


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tool483
post Jan 16 2012, 07:01 PM
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Still looks pretty cold out there with the thicknesses but they are crashing northeast pretty quick, hopefully that will stop



http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis...6&parm=thck

This post has been edited by tool483: Jan 16 2012, 07:03 PM
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hckyplayer8
post Jan 16 2012, 07:17 PM
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Initial rain/fzra (32-33F) has given way to steady IP/SN mix.


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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 16 2012, 07:29 PM
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QUOTE(hckyplayer8 @ Jan 16 2012, 07:17 PM) *
Initial rain/fzra (32-33F) has given way to steady IP/SN mix.

Snow? Interesting, the SPC Mesoanalysis does show a small pool of sub-freezing 850mb temps in PA, perhaps that might be why...


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hckyplayer8
post Jan 16 2012, 07:34 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jan 16 2012, 07:29 PM) *
Snow? Interesting, the SPC Mesoanalysis does show a small pool of sub-freezing 850mb temps in PA, perhaps that might be why...


Yup. It has since changed already and went to a mix of huge rain drops and the occasional IP.

Sucks, was starting to have a decent coating of ice bb's on the porch and driveway. Road is just wet.


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