Jan. 24-26 SE Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Predictability too low Options

[31B militaryPoli...]

Models coming into better agreement with one another that an impressive low-amplitude trough will move across the Central US out ahead of a moist airmass. GFS shows mid 60 Tds across much of the Dixie Alley into the Southeast in advance to this developing system. Instability doesn't appear to be lacking, and with a raging low level jet upwards of 65Kts, and mid level jet up to 90+ Kts, there is a growing concern for the possibility of a significant severe weather outbreak across the Southern Plains moving eventually into the SE region. As SPC mentioned there is still some questions needed to be answered such as the "disparity regarding trough motion and geometry," and there is plenty of time to watch the models.

SPC:

...DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY INACTIVE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE D4-D6 PERIOD WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS.
MODELS DO INDICATE THAT BY D7...A LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE W...AFFECTING THE CENTRAL U.S...AND POSSIBLY THE MS VALLEY
REGION BY D8. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH DISPARITY REGARDING TROUGH
MOTION AND GEOMETRY...THUS PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO DEPICT ANY
SEVERE AREAS.

KJAN:

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF BECOME EVEN LARGER AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS AGREE A CHANGE TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT. THE
GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A POTENT...EARLY WEEK TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS QUITE LOW FOR
LATE IN THE WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT...BUT I WILL SAY THAT IF
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS PAN OUT...WE COULD BE IN FOR A COUPLE
ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER(PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT!) MON INTO TUE.
DEFINITELY STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THAT SITUATION.

Looked at 12Z Hodos and helicity, and they are quite impressive for many cities across Dixie, with the hodos looping clockwise. 0Z GFS had a sharper trough and stronger forcing which suggested a more linear storm mode with embedded tornadoes/supercells. Too early though to really focus on primary storm mode, still some things need answered in regards to the trough.