Jan. 26-28 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Possibility:Medium Range [4-7 Days Out Forecast] Options

[Gilbertfly]

1/19/2012 00Z ECMWF @Hour 192 . . .





and some other nuggets that go with this system. . .

NOUS42 KNHC 191700
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EST THU 19 JANUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z JANUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-050

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PSBL NOAA49 FLIGHT, TRACK 56,
44.3N 151.0W, FOR 22/0000Z.
WVW

flying into this region here per the 12Z GFS...



which eventually translates into this deep trough into the SW CONUS on or around the 24th. . .



also HPC's look at the D4 and D5 lends support to a deepening trough...



with a developing LP...

[Snowshoe]

And the hits just keep on coming! I may not be getting a ton of snow up here in Central Wisconsin but at least the weather isnt as boring as the 1st half of winter.

[WeatherMonger]

ILX mentioning this one early, no specifics but a mention. Which probably means cold rain or dry slot

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 PM CST THU JAN 19 2012


LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AFTER A DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH IS SLATED FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM UP...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. ONE ITEM TO WATCH CAREFULLY
WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO BECOME CUT OFF LATE TUESDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE LOW SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO WHILE STILL
KEEPING IT PHASED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.
THE NORTHERN TROUGH THEN PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND LETS GO OF THE LOW
AS IT CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER MEXICO. NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON THIS
SOLUTION...BUT FOR NOW ITS POSSIBLE EFFECT ON CENTRAL IL LOOKS TO BE
AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

04

[Gilbertfly]

ILX mentioning this one early, no specifics but a mention. Which probably means cold rain or dry slot

nice monger...perfect . . . hopefully the data gathering flight will clear up those discrepencies somewhat. . .

[Gilbertfly]

HPC disco. . .

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
124 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012

VALID 12Z SUN JAN 22 2012 - 12Z THU JAN 26 2012

NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES UPON
REACHING THE ROCKIES DAY 5 TUES. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THIS
EVOLUTION WITH ENS MEANS/ 00Z CMC AND 00Z ECMWF TAKING THIS SYSTEM
AS A SRN PLAINS TO GLFMEX COASTAL LOW DAY 6 WED INTO THE APPLCHNS
DAY 7 THURS. 00Z AND 12Z GFS ALONG WITH 12Z UKMET AND 12Z CMC
BREAK OFF THE MID LEVEL BASE OF THIS SYSTEM AND LEAVE IT BEHIND AS
A CUTOFF LOW. THIS HAS LIMITED EFFECTS ON CURRENT HPC PROGS THRU
DAY 6 WED BUT BY DAY 7 PREVIOUS MODIFICATION WITH ENS MEANS HAS
TAKEN THIS INTO ACCOUNT.

PREFERENCE REMAINS TOWARDS THE BETTER AGREED UPON ENS MEANS OF GFS
AND ECMWF HAVING A MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THIS SYSTEM LATE
PERIOD WHILE LEAVING BEHIND SIGNIFICANT ENERGY AS A CUTOFF LOW
OVER SWRN CONUS. HPC UPDATED H500S AND SFC PROGS BASED UPON 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z ECMWF ENS MEANS THRU DAY 5 WITH HEAVIER LEANING ONTO
THE GFS/ECMWF ENS MEANS DAYS 6 AND 7.

[rifej7386]

I have to travel back from Indy in this timeframe and travel to Columbus on the 28th. I'm hoping it holds off until later Saturday here.

[snowlover2]

Interesting 0z GFS. Low gets to the OV and closes off. While still over the OV northern energy comes back south and phases with the closed low.

144


168


180


192

[Snow____]

^Still rain. Interesting nonetheless.

[Gilbertfly]

00Z ECMWF. . .
H168...

[Gilbertfly]

12Z GFS. . .

[Gilbertfly]

HPC...

[ColumbusBuckeye]

12Z GFS. . .

Boy that looks like it has the potential to be an awfully juicy storm. There has been a storm system for the past two weekends now, I get a feeling that this one will make it three in a row and could be the strongest of the three. Now only if we can get some cold air in place.

This post has been edited by ColumbusBuckeye: Jan 20 2012, 12:44 PM

[Gilbertfly]

Boy that looks like it has the potential to be an awfully juicy storm. There has been a storm system for the past two weekends now, I get a feeling that this one will make it three in a row and could be the strongest of the three. Now only if we can get some cold air in place.

i am really liking the potential with this system....hoping that they are still planning the winter weather flight to collect data...waiting for updates on the flight plans for the weekend...that should really help to clear up what happens with the ULL

[cary67]

Boy that looks like it has the potential to be an awfully juicy storm. There has been a storm system for the past two weekends now, I get a feeling that this one will make it three in a row and could be the strongest of the three. Now only if we can get some cold air in place.

This system looks to have potential for our area. Will have to monitor it closely.

[Gilbertfly]

i am really liking the potential with this system....hoping that they are still planning the winter weather flight to collect data...waiting for updates on the flight plans for the weekend...that should really help to clear up what happens with the ULL

and here they come...busy busy busy. . .

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0115 PM EST FRI 20 JANUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JANUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-051

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
A. P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 22/0000Z
B. NOAA9 04WSC TRACK56
C. 21/1930Z
D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 22/0600Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION...
P38/ DROP 9 (34.5N 178.3E)/ 23/0000Z.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE C-130J MISSION
FOR 24/0000Z.

should have some great sampling for this system in the models in the days to come. . .

[RJSnowLover]

12Z GFS. . .

I read somewhere that the Day 8 GFS painted a picture similar to that of last February's blizzard. I'm not a guy for the model runs that you guys find, but if someone could post that, that'd be awesome.

Unless, of course, I'm quoting the very same models I'm referencing.

[xigris14]

Boy that looks like it has the potential to be an awfully juicy storm. There has been a storm system for the past two weekends now, I get a feeling that this one will make it three in a row and could be the strongest of the three. Now only if we can get some cold air in place.

Yea looks juicy but that looks like lots of rain?

It's time for some snow for Missouri. Seems as if lately others are stating to get in on the fun except our state. Let's go. My totals so far are around 2 inches.

[ColumbusBuckeye]

Yea looks juicy but that looks like lots of rain?

It's time for some snow for Missouri. Seems as if lately others are stating to get in on the fun except our state. Let's go. My totals so far are around 2 inches.

Sure, right now it could be rain. My point is that I feel that there is a possible significant system in the works for someone in the midwest. Lot's will change with the models as this thing gets under a week. Who knows, next weekend could bring severe weather for all I know. It's fun to watch though.

[ctrlohio59]

06z shows ALOT of rain with some backside snow on the 29th

00z shows the main part of the system sliding south of the Ohio River with some light backside snow

This post has been edited by ctrlohio59: Jan 21 2012, 07:10 AM

[ohiobuckeye45]

cutoff never releases northward on the 12z...hits TX hard with more beneficial rains for days

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Jan 21 2012, 12:48 PM