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> Jan. 19-21 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm OBS, Post last minute forecasts and Obs
Gilbertfly
post Jan 19 2012, 08:29 PM
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precip has begun in the northern plains . . .



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good luck guys and gals . . .

be safe .... have fun!

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jeffro
post Jan 19 2012, 08:54 PM
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why is NWS hugging the NAM? the GFS shows a good snowstorm for i70 north, and so does the euro. and the GGEM. AND the ukie

This post has been edited by jeffro: Jan 19 2012, 08:56 PM
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pros3lyte
post Jan 19 2012, 09:04 PM
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Ahhh the thumb of Michigan gets missed by any significant accumulations yet again this year. We've yet to register a snowfall of over 2 inches? I'm seriously losing hope. Without being right by the lake this place seems to just be the donut hole that snow avoids!

Anyways. Expecting snows to start tomorrow afternoon, for a general 1-3 inches. With all these open fields it should make driving pretty crazy. Just a dusting can produce white-outs on the roadways here because its just open fields everywhere. Please be careful friends!

This post has been edited by pros3lyte: Jan 19 2012, 09:10 PM


--------------------

You've had an extra pair of gloves this whole time?

Shyea! We're in the Rockies!



My personal Weather Authority update of White Hurricane Oh-Ten!!

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JymGanahlRocks
post Jan 19 2012, 09:05 PM
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QUOTE(jeffro @ Jan 19 2012, 08:54 PM) *
why is NWS hugging the NAM? the GFS shows a good snowstorm for i70 north, and so does the euro. and the GGEM. AND the ukie


Just going off of past storms like this in our area, I am actually expecting something like what the NAM has been showing to happen...Warm air aloft usually wins out in central Ohio unfortunately. Hopefully, one of the colder model solutions wins out this time around though.
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Gilbertfly
post Jan 19 2012, 09:07 PM
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precip shield looks a little bigger so far on the 00Z NAM. . .
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SWOhioweather
post Jan 19 2012, 09:07 PM
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QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Jan 19 2012, 09:05 PM) *
Just going off of past storms like this in our area, I am actually expecting something like what the NAM has been showing to happen...Warm air aloft usually wins out in central Ohio unfortunately. Hopefully, one of the colder model solutions wins out this time around though.


IMO, the NAM looks more realistic for us right now.
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jeffro
post Jan 19 2012, 09:09 PM
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QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Jan 19 2012, 09:05 PM) *
Just going off of past storms like this in our area, I am actually expecting something like what the NAM has been showing to happen...Warm air aloft usually wins out in central Ohio unfortunately. Hopefully, one of the colder model solutions wins out this time around though.


i suppose inexperience owns me.
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Gilbertfly
post Jan 19 2012, 09:12 PM
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24H precip through 27. . .

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and still snowing in chicago area. . .
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SWOhioweather
post Jan 19 2012, 09:13 PM
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NAM appears to have a bit more QPF for Southern/Central Ohio and a bit cooler compared to both the 18Z and 12Z
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Gilbertfly
post Jan 19 2012, 09:14 PM
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00Z NAM keeping the northern 1/3 of Ohio snow at quick glance looking at the 850's
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rifej7386
post Jan 19 2012, 09:18 PM
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Quite a bit of QPF on the NAM. Southern moisture gets involved.
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OSUWx2
post Jan 19 2012, 09:18 PM
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NAM looks to be just a slight bit warmer, but all precip looks to remain frozen in Columbus
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RobB
post Jan 19 2012, 09:21 PM
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0Z NAM total Snowfall through hour 36:




Total Precip through 36:

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SWOhioweather
post Jan 19 2012, 09:22 PM
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Looks like a bit more ice will be involved around here than previously expected...
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RobB
post Jan 19 2012, 09:23 PM
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QUOTE(SWOhioweather @ Jan 19 2012, 09:22 PM) *
Looks like a bit more ice will be involved around here than previously expected...


Interesting drier values printed for the I-70 corridor..
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SWOhioweather
post Jan 19 2012, 09:24 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 19 2012, 09:23 PM) *
Interesting drier values printed for the I-70 corridor..


I just saw that, at first it seemed like almost more QPF, but I guess looks can be deceiving...

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RobB
post Jan 19 2012, 09:26 PM
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42 hour snowfall from the 0Z NAM:

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rifej7386
post Jan 19 2012, 09:26 PM
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This storm is going the direction I figured. Warmer and more mixing.
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SWOhioweather
post Jan 19 2012, 09:26 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 19 2012, 09:26 PM) *
42 hour snowfall from the 0Z NAM:



2/3 of Ohio got completely torched snowfall wise on this run.
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RobB
post Jan 19 2012, 09:27 PM
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QUOTE(SWOhioweather @ Jan 19 2012, 09:24 PM) *
I just saw saw that, at first it seemed like almost more QPF, but I guess looks can be deceiving...


Still around .2 to .3 On that scale....
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