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> Winter 2011/2012
Removed_Member_weathertree4u_*
post Jan 26 2012, 05:51 AM
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Anyone know if there is any validity to thinking that one good thing about this Winter or lack of Winter in the East is that statistically we are less likely to have a similiar Winter next year?
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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 26 2012, 05:16 PM
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QUOTE(weathertree4u @ Jan 26 2012, 05:51 AM) *
Anyone know if there is any validity to thinking that one good thing about this Winter or lack of Winter in the East is that statistically we are less likely to have a similiar Winter next year?

I don't know about the entire East, but using NWS Upton's snow history for Central Park, which goes back to the late 1860s, there is an overall idea of which winters were terrible and which were good. Considering that only little additional snow falls this winter, I am using 12 or less inches of snow for this case, with 15 winters falling into that category. Winters that barely or did not improve in the next year are bolded.

Winter -- snow -- next winter snow

1877-78 -- 8.1" -- 35.7"
1900-01 -- 9.1" -- 30.0"
1918-19 -- 3.8" -- 47.6"
1930-31 -- 11.6" -- 5.3"
1931-32 -- 5.3" -- 27.0"
1941-42 -- 11.3" -- 29.5"
1950-51 -- 11.6" -- 19.7"
1954-55 -- 11.5" -- 33.5"
1972-73 -- 2.8" -- 23.5"
1988-89 -- 8.1" -- 13.4"
1994-95 -- 11.8" -- 75.6"
1996-97 -- 10.0" -- 5.5"
1997-98 -- 5.5" -- 12.7"

2001-02 -- 3.5" -- 49.3"
2007-08 -- 11.9" -- 27.6"

It's hard to draw solid conclusions from these historical references, although some quick statistics that are supported by historical references:

- 4/15 winters (27%) were followed by another winter with a lack of snow.
- 7/15 winters (46%) were followed by an average winter.
- 4/15 winters (27%) were followed by much snowier than average winters.
- There have only been 3 consecutive winters with near to less than 12 inches (06-07 included, which is not listed above).

Taking these statistics into consideration, it can be assumed that for the entire East Coast, an average winter has the highest probability; a cold/snowy winter is possible but not too likely.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Jan 26 2012, 05:17 PM
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