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> Jan 29 - 30th MW/Plains/OV/Great Lakes Clipper, Reality: Short Range [0-4 days]
RobB
post Jan 26 2012, 10:12 AM
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12Z NAM shows a 2nd clipper coming in between the 29th and 30th. I did not see a topic for this already but if so Sorry..Missed it smile.gif

12Z NAM 24 hour snow at hour 84:



This post has been edited by RobB: Jan 26 2012, 10:12 AM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 26 2012, 10:38 AM
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we're just mowing down these clipper threads Rob laugh.gif
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RobB
post Jan 26 2012, 10:40 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 26 2012, 10:38 AM) *
we're just mowing down these clipper threads Rob laugh.gif


laugh.gif

I am trying to grab onto anything I can to see some flakes bud smile.gif
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RobB
post Jan 26 2012, 11:01 AM
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Coming in to ND at hour 54:

12Z GFS at hour 54:

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RobB
post Jan 26 2012, 11:02 AM
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12Z GFS at hour 60:

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RobB
post Jan 26 2012, 11:05 AM
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12Z GFS at hour 66:

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RobB
post Jan 26 2012, 11:05 AM
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12Z GFS at hour 72:

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RobB
post Jan 26 2012, 11:06 AM
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GFS is meh with this...I might as well continue to post it out to hour 84.. smile.gif
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RobB
post Jan 26 2012, 11:08 AM
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12Z GFS at hour 78:

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RobB
post Jan 26 2012, 11:11 AM
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12Z GFS at hour 84:

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RobB
post Jan 26 2012, 11:12 AM
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12Z GFS at hour 90:

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RobB
post Jan 26 2012, 11:12 AM
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12Z GFS 24 hour snowfall at hour 84:

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snowlover2
post Jan 26 2012, 03:53 PM
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This clipper looks a little stronger on the 18z NAM compared to the 12z NAM. Rob you got a snowfall map you can post for this run?


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RobB
post Jan 26 2012, 03:59 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jan 26 2012, 03:53 PM) *
This clipper looks a little stronger on the 18z NAM compared to the 12z NAM. Rob you got a snowfall map you can post for this run?


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RobB
post Jan 27 2012, 10:22 AM
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12Z NAM 24 hour snowfall at hour 60:

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CMeyers
post Jan 28 2012, 02:26 PM
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This should be a solid 3-5", locally 6" event in southern MI. Very impressive looking lift and what appears to be a trowal feature as well. Brief but intense snowstorm. I'd imagine some advisories will be coming out later this evening. Might be the biggest snowfall of the season for a few places actually towards Detroit. Wouldn't shock me to see widespread 4"+ amounts. I'm thinking between I-94 and I-96 in western MI and I-94 and I-69 in eastern MI will be the best spots for the higher amounts. Should be a nice storm.


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JymGanahlRocks
post Jan 28 2012, 02:35 PM
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QUOTE(CMeyers @ Jan 28 2012, 02:26 PM) *
This should be a solid 3-5", locally 6" event in southern MI. Very impressive looking lift and what appears to be a trowal feature as well. Brief but intense snowstorm. I'd imagine some advisories will be coming out later this evening. Might be the biggest snowfall of the season for a few places actually towards Detroit. Wouldn't shock me to see widespread 4"+ amounts. I'm thinking between I-94 and I-96 in western MI and I-94 and I-69 in eastern MI will be the best spots for the higher amounts. Should be a nice storm.


What are you basing those snow amounts on?

Here are the 12z gfs/nam totals...





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WeatherMonger
post Jan 28 2012, 02:45 PM
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Here's the 12Z WRF-NMM, doesn't look like much for anyone, let alone a 4-6" typed event


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CMeyers
post Jan 28 2012, 04:31 PM
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They just issued an advisory for 3-6" in SW MI and that will probably translate (though more like 2-4") towards the SE parts of MI. Lake enhancement is not a huge factor with this storm thanks partially to lack of real cold air. Dynamics are very impressive even if moisture is somewhat lacking. RUC showing a band of 2-4" through southern lower MI as well. Those amounts have been coming up and I expect them to keep doing so. I see this as a 4-6" event in SW MI (south of I-96 mainly) and a 2-4" event in SE MI (south of I-69). We shall see. With winds it'll get pretty nasty out for a while too. Should be a high ratio snow also which I suppose could increase numbers.


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Torontoweather
post Jan 28 2012, 05:17 PM
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This is where he is getting it from:








total:


looks like a solid 2-4" event, with perhaps some 4-6" in there as well... It looks like very heavy snow for a short period of time... Should be cool and hopefully it will translate horizontally into southern Ontario as well. wink.gif


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