Jan 28 Eastern Canada Winter Storm, tomorrow! Options

[elder05]

Surprised no one has posted anything about this little feature...Sure there's not a lot of snow with it, it's a pretty dynamic little storm meteorologically speaking speaking.

it's a pretty potent shortwave that's going to bring some pretty strong winds and some snow. Very tiht pressure gradient around this SLP.

One thing to watch though (of course) the 925 mb temps warming slightly which could translate into mixing issues. A lot depends on the exact track, but as of now, i'm thinking plain snow, with perhaps blowing snow and a light accumulation. (see SWS below) someone else may want to post some images? Also i'm assuming EC is referring to the eastern shores as opposed to the western shores of huron....

747
WOCN11 CWTO 271037
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 5:37 AM EST FRIDAY 27 JANUARY 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR:
=NEW= CITY OF TORONTO
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON
=NEW= ELGIN
=NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX
=NEW= SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
=NEW= DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
=NEW= OXFORD - BRANT
=NEW= NIAGARA
=NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON
=NEW= HALTON - PEEL
=NEW= YORK - DURHAM
=NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
=NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
=NEW= GREY - BRUCE
=NEW= BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND
=NEW= BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND =NEW= KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD =NEW= PORT CARLING - PORT SEVERN =NEW= BRACEBRIDGE - GRAVENHURST =NEW= BURK'S FALLS - BAYFIELD INLET
GODERICH - BLUEWATER - SOUTHERN HURON COUNTY
WINGHAM - BLYTH - NORTHERN HURON COUNTY
TOWN OF PARRY SOUND - ROSSEAU - KILLBEAR PARK
HUNTSVILLE - BAYSVILLE.

A BLUSTERY SATURDAY.


---------------------------------------------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ENDED FOR:
OXTONGUE LAKE - FORT IRWIN - NORTHERN HALIBURTON COUNTY
PETAWAWA - PEMBROKE - COBDEN
ALGONQUIN.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE AMERICAN MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 5 CM RANGE ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 CM NEAR THE WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 50 KM/HOUR WITH GUSTS TO 70 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SATURDAY EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL REGIONS. HIGHER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKE SHORELINES. THE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LOW VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW IN SOME AREAS, MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA

END

[bigmt]

12z NAM @ hour 33:

 nam_namer_033_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 58.79K ) Number of downloads: 3


24-hour snowfall @ hour 39:

 USA_ASNOW24_sfc_039.gif ( 25.83K ) Number of downloads: 6

[Torontoweather]

Use the RUC and HRRR from now on...

[bigmt]

Use the RUC and HRRR from now on...

Yes sir, beg your pardon lol!

[elder05]

Yes sir, beg your pardon lol!

lol...toronto weather has a nasty and assertive side...who knew...

just kidding.

[bigmt]

12z HRRR composite reflectivity @ hour 15 showing this system moving in:

 cref_t7sfc_f15.png ( 110.8K ) Number of downloads: 2

[bigmt]

14z RUC composite reflectivity @ hour 18:

 cref_t7sfc_f18.png ( 68.18K ) Number of downloads: 2


Precip type:

 ptyp_t7sfc_f18.png ( 72.76K ) Number of downloads: 1

[Torontoweather]

Yes sir, beg your pardon lol!

lol...toronto weather has a nasty and assertive side...who knew...

just kidding.

Hahaha, sry bigmt, didn't mean to be rude. Was just trying t make a quick post as I'm sick... Again. As well I believe elder may be right in saying that this storm could be rather dynamic in nature. If that's the case then the hrrr and ruc will always handle the system much more appropriately.

[bigmt]

Hahaha, sry bigmt, didn't mean to be rude. Was just trying t make a quick post as I'm sick... Again.

No worries at all, happy to oblige and have a bit of fun too

Hope you feel better soon.

As well I believe elder may be right in saying that this storm could be rather dynamic in nature. If that's the case then the hrrr and ruc will always handle the system much more appropriately.

Gotcha, I'll stick with them.

[Ryan45]

Well, my biology exam sucked.. so, let's hope this gives us 5cm or something

[weatherman 23]

RUC/HRRR did a good job showing the back-end snows today

[bigmt]

14z RUC composite reflectivity @ hour 24:

 cref_t7sfc_f24.png ( 73.16K ) Number of downloads: 2


1-hour snowfall @ hour 24:

 1hsnw_t7sfc_f24.png ( 65.78K ) Number of downloads: 5

[elder05]

124
WOCN11 CWTO 272047
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 3:47 PM EST FRIDAY 27 JANUARY 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR:
CITY OF TORONTO
WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
SARNIA - LAMBTON
ELGIN
LONDON - MIDDLESEX
SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
OXFORD - BRANT
NIAGARA
CITY OF HAMILTON
HALTON - PEEL
YORK - DURHAM
GODERICH - BLUEWATER - SOUTHERN HURON COUNTY
WINGHAM - BLYTH - NORTHERN HURON COUNTY
WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
GREY - BRUCE
BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND
BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND
KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD
PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA
BURK'S FALLS - BAYFIELD INLET.

A BLUSTERY SATURDAY ON TAP.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==

A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER APPROACHING FROM THE AMERICAN MIDWEST WILL SAIL QUICKLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A 2 TO 5 CM BLANKET OF SNOW TO MOST REGIONS.
AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW BLASTS ACROSS, STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 50 GUSTING TO 70 OR 80 KM/H ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS THE DISTRICT. HIGHER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINES OF THE GREAT LAKES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WIND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED.

IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, AND SNOW SQUALLS MAY OCCUR IN THE SNOW BELTS TO THE EAST OF LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY. VERY LOW VISIBILITY FROM BLOWING SNOW MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE TO DEAL WITH.

SNOW SQUALL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED BY SATURDAY EVENING IN AREAS SUCH AS GREY - BRUCE, PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA AND OVER SIMCOE COUNTY. THESE SNOW SQUALLS MAY ALSO BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW.

MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED THAT DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE SATURDAY DUE TO VERY LOW VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW AND FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW ON UNTREATED ROADS.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA IS CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SITUATION.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS AS WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED OR EXTENDED.

END/OSPC

[bigmt]

19z RUC composite reflectivity @ hour 24:

 cref_t7sfc_f24.png ( 73.99K ) Number of downloads: 2


1-hour snowfall @hour 24:

 1hsnw_t7sfc_f24.png ( 67.8K ) Number of downloads: 2


15z HRRR composite reflectivity @ hour 15:

 cref_t7sfc_f15.png ( 93.59K ) Number of downloads: 1

[winter48]

Brace yourself people! 2-4cm coming at us tomorrow! Even though I am sure you can sense the sarcasm, the sad part is I am actually kind of excited....says a lot about this winter huh?
Looks like there may be a REAL reason to get excited later next week and even after that?????

This post has been edited by winter48: Jan 27 2012, 04:15 PM

[cweber]

EC calling for 5-10cm here tomorrow then another 5-10cm tomorrow night with the snowsqualls and more snowsqualls on Sunday:) Could be a really good weekend for snowfall

[weatherman 23]

Travis, any input on the potential lake effect snow event? Thanks.

[cweber]

Travis, any input on the potential lake effect snow event? Thanks.

I'd also like to hear from Travis.. Also Travis do you see the lake effect continuing in to Monday or will it only be saturday night/sunday?

[travis3000]

Sorry guys. Been INSANE busy with work. I've had very little time to follow the weather. I see some snowsqualls forming tomorrow evening and continuing right into Monday. Winds will literally be all over the place. At times they will be WSW, W, WNW, and NW. So I am not expecting big accumulations. Given the lack of shear, I can certainly see how some areas pick up 10-20cm of snow, locally up to 25cm in the hardest hit locales. This event favours the following regions:

-Parry Sound/Muskoka
-Gravenhurst/Bracebridge
-Midland/Orillia/Port Severn
-Port Elgin/Kincardine/Sauble Beach
-Wiarton/Tobermory/Owen Sound
-Goderich

It looks like a wave of energy moves through Sunday which will shift wind to NW allowing some bands to re-form affecting the Wasaga Beach to Barrie corridor as well as the Goderich/Exetor/Stratford/Kitchener area. By Mon morning, most squalls will die down.

As for the system tomorrow, it's a general 2-4cm across S. Ontario with amounts in the 4-8cm closer to Georgian Bay and Lake Huron.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Jan 27 2012, 06:36 PM

[gschep]

**SNIP**
Looks like there may be a REAL reason to get excited later next week and even after that?????

We've been saying that for the most part of this winter haven't we?