 Feb. 5-6 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range (0-4 Days Out) Forecasts |
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 Jan 29 2012, 01:33 PM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Founding Member Posts: 20,783 Joined: 7-March 04 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 16  |
BTW...
12Z Euro Day 6 Low left behind special    -------------------- |
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Jan 29 2012, 01:38 PM
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#2
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,163 Joined: 28-January 10 Member No.: 21,166 |
day 7
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Jan 29 2012, 01:52 PM
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,163 Joined: 28-January 10 Member No.: 21,166 |
The ecmwf is now showing a possible winter storm following the 3-4 event. We need to keep an eye on this and is very possible it becomes one storm but until then here we go.
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Jan 29 2012, 01:53 PM
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#4
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,267 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
For the first storm, the ECM has an area of light-moderate snow from the NY/PA border east to the southern Massachusetts border and north of that line. The second storm has the snow further south, from southern PA to NYC and north of there, although I-95 up to NYC change over to a mix/rain towards the end.
-------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Jan 29 2012, 01:56 PM
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#5
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 321 Joined: 29-January 09 From: Barnegat, NJ Member No.: 17,236 |
QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jan 29 2012, 01:53 PM)  For the first storm, the ECM has an area of light-moderate snow from the NY/PA border east to the southern Massachusetts border and north of that line. The second storm has the snow further south, from southern PA to NYC and north of there, although I-95 up to NYC change over to a mix/rain towards the end.
needs to come more east i live in Barnegat, NJ
-------------------- Let it snow.
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Jan 29 2012, 01:57 PM
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#6
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,267 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 29 2012, 01:54 PM) That's why I said...if the tread continues.  That's also where sampling becomes so important... until the storm is better sampled, the models are still going to go in different directions with this one leaving us with confusion on the storm time frames. This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Jan 29 2012, 01:58 PM -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Jan 29 2012, 02:03 PM
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#7
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
Even though it list Rob as the creator, USASUPERSTORM was the original. This happened because I moved all the post related to this system in here from the prior.
EDIT: Expanding on this thread a little bit also...if a model shows a storm in a particular region, it is well within the guidelines to create. There is a completely different situation when one creates a thread based on "potential" when it's not on the models in a specific region. We have a long range sub-forum for that situation. -------------------- |
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Jan 29 2012, 02:14 PM
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#8
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jan 29 2012, 12:57 PM) That's also where sampling becomes so important... until the storm is better sampled, the models are still going to go in different directions with this one leaving us with confusion on the storm time frames. To say they are interested would be an understatement. Usually they have ones for the 00z suites...they have added a 12z to the mix. QUOTE WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0115 PM EST SUN 29 JANUARY 2012 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z JANUARY 2012 WSPOD NUMBER.....11-060 II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 A. P54/ DROP 8 (45.0N 166.0W)/ 31/0000Z B. AFXXX 08WSC TRACK54 C. 30/1830Z D. 17 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 31/0600Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A. POSSIBLE TEAL C-130J MISSION FOR P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 01/0000Z. B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 01/1200Z. SEF -------------------- |
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Jan 29 2012, 02:24 PM
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,163 Joined: 28-January 10 Member No.: 21,166 |
Here is a look at the 12z ecmwf hours 162-180 snowfall.
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Jan 29 2012, 02:27 PM
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#10
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,292 Joined: 27-November 08 From: York PA Member No.: 16,263 |
QUOTE(UFASUPERSTORM @ Jan 29 2012, 02:24 PM) Here is a look at the 12z ecmwf hours 162-180 snowfall. What is the snowfall total for our area...3-6 inches? -------------------- |
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Jan 29 2012, 02:29 PM
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#11
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 452 Joined: 19-December 10 Member No.: 24,750 |
If the Euro holds strong im gonna be pretty pumped with two moderate storms it will be a perfect one two punch in my area.
-------------------- Location: Lyndonville, VT
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Jan 29 2012, 02:31 PM
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,163 Joined: 28-January 10 Member No.: 21,166 |
QUOTE(The Big Snowstorm @ Jan 29 2012, 02:27 PM) What is the snowfall total for our area...3-6 inches? Its way to early to talk about snowfall totals for a specific area. If the 12z ecmwf verified here(which it won't) it would be a 4-7 inch storm. |
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Jan 29 2012, 02:34 PM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
The OPC does not have a 72hr option, but I circled the system that the WWF will sample with an 'x' for the position at 01FEB12 00Z/12Z.
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Jan 29 2012, 02:37 PM
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#14
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,860 Joined: 24-January 08 From: Nowhere, ND Member No.: 13,040 |
The second system has "big-boy" potential.
You would expect a Miller-B secondary off the coast of SC to actually become a bit more volatile than a meager 1008-1004mb low once it reaches the coast of the MA/NE. Then again, this is a long ways out. Things will change. -------------------- -Mike P
Realism |
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Jan 29 2012, 05:30 PM
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#15
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,280 Joined: 17-December 08 From: Freehold Boro Member No.: 16,547 |
18z gfs
-------------------- Central monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30" Freehold boro snowfall 2008 - 2009: 26.8" 2009 - 2010: 74.2" 2010 - 2011: 61.1" 2011 - 2012: 8.5" 2012 - 2013: 37.1" |
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Jan 29 2012, 05:32 PM
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,280 Joined: 17-December 08 From: Freehold Boro Member No.: 16,547 |
-------------------- Central monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30" Freehold boro snowfall 2008 - 2009: 26.8" 2009 - 2010: 74.2" 2010 - 2011: 61.1" 2011 - 2012: 8.5" 2012 - 2013: 37.1" |
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Jan 29 2012, 05:33 PM
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#17
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,690 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Mount Vernon, NY Member No.: 12,006 |
QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Jan 29 2012, 05:30 PM) 18z gfs
This Miller B looks like it'll cutoff and the Coastal will become dominant. It'll probably happen earlier as soon as we get the sample in. -------------------- CURRENT IEM/OEM SET: Meelec M6(MSRP $49.99), VSonic GR06 (MSRP $49.99), Meelec CC51(MSRP $80), Beyerdynamic DTX 910 (MSRP $89.99), Future Sonics Atrio X (MSRP $99.99),Ultrasone HFI-450 (MSRP $119.99), JVC HA-FXT90 (MSRP $135.00)
SOURCE: Cowon J3 8GB DAP (WHT)+Fiio E6 Amp w/FilmPro 16GB MicroSD Card Class 10 To learn more about Sound Frequency: http://www.independentrecording.net/irn/re...ain_display.htm If you need help with choosing the right IEMs (In Ear Monitors) http://www.head-fi.org/forum/thread/478568...-ie-added-05-20 |
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Jan 29 2012, 05:33 PM
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,280 Joined: 17-December 08 From: Freehold Boro Member No.: 16,547 |
-------------------- Central monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30" Freehold boro snowfall 2008 - 2009: 26.8" 2009 - 2010: 74.2" 2010 - 2011: 61.1" 2011 - 2012: 8.5" 2012 - 2013: 37.1" |
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Jan 29 2012, 05:48 PM
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#19
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,690 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Mount Vernon, NY Member No.: 12,006 |
I just realized something. An East Based NAO with an Intense Block of HPs over Southern Canada, with a modest 50/50 Low will prevent the Primary and Secondary from cutting north, thus pushing the Secondary either NE or ENE.
-------------------- CURRENT IEM/OEM SET: Meelec M6(MSRP $49.99), VSonic GR06 (MSRP $49.99), Meelec CC51(MSRP $80), Beyerdynamic DTX 910 (MSRP $89.99), Future Sonics Atrio X (MSRP $99.99),Ultrasone HFI-450 (MSRP $119.99), JVC HA-FXT90 (MSRP $135.00)
SOURCE: Cowon J3 8GB DAP (WHT)+Fiio E6 Amp w/FilmPro 16GB MicroSD Card Class 10 To learn more about Sound Frequency: http://www.independentrecording.net/irn/re...ain_display.htm If you need help with choosing the right IEMs (In Ear Monitors) http://www.head-fi.org/forum/thread/478568...-ie-added-05-20 |
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Jan 29 2012, 05:51 PM
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,860 Joined: 24-January 08 From: Nowhere, ND Member No.: 13,040 |
This could get interesting.
Just have the whole thing a bit farther east in the next 100 hours and we could have an interesting system coming up. Miller-B systems are always fun. -------------------- -Mike P
Realism |
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