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> Feb. 5-6 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range (0-4 Days Out) Forecasts
RobB
post Jan 29 2012, 01:33 PM
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BTW...

12Z Euro Day 6 Low left behind special smile.gif




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UFASUPERSTORM
post Jan 29 2012, 01:38 PM
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day 7 wink.gif
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UFASUPERSTORM
post Jan 29 2012, 01:52 PM
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The ecmwf is now showing a possible winter storm following the 3-4 event. We need to keep an eye on this and is very possible it becomes one storm but until then here we go.
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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 29 2012, 01:53 PM
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For the first storm, the ECM has an area of light-moderate snow from the NY/PA border east to the southern Massachusetts border and north of that line. The second storm has the snow further south, from southern PA to NYC and north of there, although I-95 up to NYC change over to a mix/rain towards the end.


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let it dnow
post Jan 29 2012, 01:56 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jan 29 2012, 01:53 PM) *
For the first storm, the ECM has an area of light-moderate snow from the NY/PA border east to the southern Massachusetts border and north of that line. The second storm has the snow further south, from southern PA to NYC and north of there, although I-95 up to NYC change over to a mix/rain towards the end.


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needs to come more east i live in Barnegat, NJ smile.gif


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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 29 2012, 01:57 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 29 2012, 01:54 PM) *
That's why I said...if the tread continues. wink.gif laugh.gif

That's also where sampling becomes so important... until the storm is better sampled, the models are still going to go in different directions with this one leaving us with confusion on the storm time frames.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Jan 29 2012, 01:58 PM
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jdrenken
post Jan 29 2012, 02:03 PM
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Even though it list Rob as the creator, USASUPERSTORM was the original. This happened because I moved all the post related to this system in here from the prior.

EDIT: Expanding on this thread a little bit also...if a model shows a storm in a particular region, it is well within the guidelines to create. There is a completely different situation when one creates a thread based on "potential" when it's not on the models in a specific region. We have a long range sub-forum for that situation.


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jdrenken
post Jan 29 2012, 02:14 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jan 29 2012, 12:57 PM) *
That's also where sampling becomes so important... until the storm is better sampled, the models are still going to go in different directions with this one leaving us with confusion on the storm time frames.


To say they are interested would be an understatement. Usually they have ones for the 00z suites...they have added a 12z to the mix.

QUOTE
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0115 PM EST SUN 29 JANUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z JANUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-060

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. P54/ DROP 8 (45.0N 166.0W)/ 31/0000Z
B. AFXXX 08WSC TRACK54
C. 30/1830Z
D. 17 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 31/0600Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. POSSIBLE TEAL C-130J MISSION FOR
P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 01/0000Z.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR
P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 01/1200Z.

SEF


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UFASUPERSTORM
post Jan 29 2012, 02:24 PM
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Here is a look at the 12z ecmwf hours 162-180 snowfall.
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The Big Snowstor...
post Jan 29 2012, 02:27 PM
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QUOTE(UFASUPERSTORM @ Jan 29 2012, 02:24 PM) *
Here is a look at the 12z ecmwf hours 162-180 snowfall.

What is the snowfall total for our area...3-6 inches?


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donutvampire
post Jan 29 2012, 02:29 PM
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If the Euro holds strong im gonna be pretty pumped with two moderate storms it will be a perfect one two punch in my area.


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UFASUPERSTORM
post Jan 29 2012, 02:31 PM
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QUOTE(The Big Snowstorm @ Jan 29 2012, 02:27 PM) *
What is the snowfall total for our area...3-6 inches?

Its way to early to talk about snowfall totals for a specific area. If the 12z ecmwf verified here(which it won't) it would be a 4-7 inch storm.
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jdrenken
post Jan 29 2012, 02:34 PM
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The OPC does not have a 72hr option, but I circled the system that the WWF will sample with an 'x' for the position at 01FEB12 00Z/12Z.
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Superstorm93
post Jan 29 2012, 02:37 PM
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The second system has "big-boy" potential.

You would expect a Miller-B secondary off the coast of SC to actually become a bit more volatile than a meager 1008-1004mb low once it reaches the coast of the MA/NE. Then again, this is a long ways out.


Things will change.


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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 29 2012, 05:30 PM
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18z gfs



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western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 29 2012, 05:32 PM
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--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
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Niyologist
post Jan 29 2012, 05:33 PM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Jan 29 2012, 05:30 PM) *
18z gfs



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This Miller B looks like it'll cutoff and the Coastal will become dominant. It'll probably happen earlier as soon as we get the sample in.


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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 29 2012, 05:33 PM
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--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
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Niyologist
post Jan 29 2012, 05:48 PM
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I just realized something. An East Based NAO with an Intense Block of HPs over Southern Canada, with a modest 50/50 Low will prevent the Primary and Secondary from cutting north, thus pushing the Secondary either NE or ENE.


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SOURCE: Cowon J3 8GB DAP (WHT)+Fiio E11 Headphone Amplifier w/C3 32GB MicroSD Card Class 6

To learn more about Sound Frequency:
http://www.independentrecording.net/irn/re...ain_display.htm

If you need help with choosing the right IEMs (In Ear Monitors)
http://www.head-fi.org/forum/thread/478568...-ie-added-05-20


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Superstorm93
post Jan 29 2012, 05:51 PM
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This could get interesting.

Just have the whole thing a bit farther east in the next 100 hours and we could have an interesting system coming up.

Miller-B systems are always fun.


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