Feb. 2-5 Plains/MW/GL/OV Blizzard, Reality: Short Range [0-3 days] Options

[okie333]

This post has been edited by okie333: Jan 29 2012, 02:30 PM

[ohiobuckeye45]

12z ECM....quite far away to be posting these but....

[Snow____]

You did it!

Lets hope this storms gives us in the OV something to smile at.

[Snow____]

12z ECM....quite far away to be posting these but....

Do we know how much snow that shows are is it really just something to show where the snow will fall.

[ohiobuckeye45]

Do we know how much snow that shows are is it really just something to show where the snow will fall.

[Snow____]

Thank You sir.

[Juniorrr]

This the right system ? so confused.
18z GFS
Hr126


hr132


This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Jan 29 2012, 05:22 PM

[Juniorrr]

hr 138



This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Jan 29 2012, 05:24 PM

[jdrenken]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
259 PM CST THU JAN 28 2012

12Z MODELS HAVE AGAIN ALTERNATED BACK TO A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OR DESERT SW OVER THE WEEKEND...SIMILAR TO RUNS 24
HOURS AGO. THE 00Z RUNS LACKED THIS FEATURE...BUT WERE ALONG THE
SAME LINES CONTINUING A CHANGE TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN...
DEVELOPING A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH IN THE
EAST. IN THE TRANSITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES IN THE MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL REGION FROM
LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THESE PERIODS ARE FILLED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE...LOW END POPS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN A COMPROMISE AMONG
THE WIDE RANGING SOLUTIONS...OVERALL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS WEEK
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. IT
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL MORE DAYS BEFORE MODELS GET A GOOD ENOUGH
HANDLE ON CRITICAL LARGE SCALE FEATURES TO ADD CONFIDENCE TO THESE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. ..SHEETS..

[Juniorrr]

Some reason the image at 144 on Raleighwx isn't working so,
Hr 144


Hr 150


This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Jan 29 2012, 05:28 PM

[Juniorrr]

HR162 snowfall


This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Jan 29 2012, 05:31 PM

[easton229]

HR162 snowfall

Wouldn't mind that one bit.

[ColumbusBuckeye]

HR162 snowfall

Ha, that run seems about right for us central Ohioans.

[Juniorrr]

Ha, that run seems about right for us central Ohioans.

Haha always in the warm/ice sectors

[RobB]

Sorry if already posted

ILN Long Range AFD:

Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
models continue to change solutions run to run for the forecast
period...with no two models indicating the same solution...so
confidence this cycle is very low.


Period begins with cold front pushing through the Ohio Valley. Showers
are are expected to be affecting the forecast area at the onset of the forecast.
Models begin their divergence here. The 12z GFS and European model (ecmwf) are slow
to push the fnt and precipitation through the region on Wednesday while the NAM
and CMC dry things out by 18z Wednesday. Leaned with the GFS/European model (ecmwf) so went
ahead and lingered precipitation into the afternoon.


The European model (ecmwf) then swings a compact short wave into the Ohio Valley Wednesday
night into Thursday. A closed surface low develops in response and a
good area of rain is pushed back into the forecast area Wednesday night into
Thursday. The GFS has a little more muted surface low and keeps an precipitation
in Kentucky and extreme southern Ohio...while the CMC shows building high
pressure. The European model (ecmwf) looks overdone...so leaned towards the
compromise GFS solution.


All models build high pressure in for Thursday night. While all
models are suggesting a building western U.S. 500 mb ridge and a developing
trough over the eastern U.S. Their handling of individual short wave differ and
their development of the eastern trough is different.


The GFS puts more energy into a northern stream short wave that digs into
the Great Lakes. As it does it pulls colder air into the region for
the weekend. The European model (ecmwf) tries to phase energy over The Rockies and
kicks out a significant storm across the Gulf states into the Ohio
Valley. The CMC kicks the southern stream energy separate from the northern
energy and is therefore about 24 hours quicker than the European model (ecmwf) in
kicking a system eastward. The European model (ecmwf) has been flip flopping with the
energy next weekend with each model run. Decided to go close to the
GFS solution. At least it is showing some run to run continuity. So
for Friday night into Saturday brought some rain/snow changing to snow
into the forecast area. High pressure builds in for Sunday.


Went close to GFS MOS for temperatures through the period.

Source

[WeatherMonger]

Bolded area would have been nice a couple months ago. Too little too late? I know it's Just about February, but not much left for the true "cold season" in terms of sun angle and such.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
224 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT A COLDER AND MORE ACTIVE
PRECIP REGIME ACRS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER
AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO BUILD ACRS THE WESTERN U.S. AND EXTEND NORTHWARD
INTO WESTERN CANADA. LOTS OF DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO HOW AMPLIFIED
THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WILL BE...WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH WE WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THAT VERY COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN SITTING UP
ACRS PARTS OF ALASKA AND NW CANADA. CONFIDENCE WITH ANY ONE OF THESE
SOLUTIONS IS STILL POOR AS THE EURO HAS HAD SOME SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE AMOUNT OF RIDGING...IF ANY...OCCURRING
OVER WESTERN NOAM...WITH THE OTHER MODELS NOT MUCH BETTER. AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING EXTENDED
FORECAST...WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN 30 FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO SAT NIGHT.

CANADIAN AND ECMWF NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE IDEA OF A CLOSED LOW
AT 500 MB ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE GEM LOOKING
TOO FAST BASED ON THE IDEA OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OUT WEST WHICH WOULD
CONTINUE TO DIG THE ENERGY SOUTHEAST INTO TEXAS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SAT AND NOT EJECT THE SYSTEM EASTWARD UNTIL SATURDAY. THEN THE PROBLEM
WITH PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LATE IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD UNTIMATELY BRING THE COLD AIR SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MIDWEST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SMITH
&&

[jdrenken]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
321 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012

.DISCUSSION...

Medium Range (Wednesday - Sunday):

Confidence in regards to the extended forecast remains low as models
are still struggling with the timing/location/intensity of a pattern
change from quasi-zonal to very meridional flow. There is general
agreement that a ridge will begin to build across the eastern
Pacific later this week and spread eastward into the western CONUS
Thursday into Friday. The response to this ridging is for troughing
to develop across the eastern half to two-thirds of the CONUS. And
this is where models are struggling, both run to run and amongst
themselves and their ensembles. By Friday, ensemble standard
deviation really increases across the region with values approaching
10 decameters and there could be a closed low anywhere from roughly
the Four Corners area to the Great Lakes. Given the huge uncertainty
for this period did not deviate much from the forecast
initialization. One minor change was to reduce precipitation chances
as confidence is just not high enough to justify mentioning a chance
of anything at this time. Also, even though there is poor agreement
regarding the details of the Eastern CONUS troughing there is
general agreement that the area should remain in or be close to the
cyclonic flow aloft which favors a cooling trend and we should be
more likely to see temperatures closer to normal heading into the
weekend.

CDB

[TJ Schulte]

I think our first major storm of the year may be taking place here soon

[xigris14]

HR162 snowfall

St. Louis gets the shaft on that. Things get good after the system moves out. Hopefully things can change for me. Would like to add to my BIG 2.5 inch total this season.

Upper Ohio Valley Wins. Jan has been decent for you guys up there. Congrats.

This post has been edited by xigris14: Jan 29 2012, 07:07 PM

[ohiobuckeye45]

This would be an extremely touchy situation particularly in Ohio with the transfer. Alot of times we'll stay all frozen because by the time the transfer starts alot of WAA is usually done away with. It also wouldnt suprise me to see a DBL barrel low solution