 Feb 10-13th Eastern Canada Cold Spell, Reality: Short Range |
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 Feb 3 2012, 02:01 PM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 5,827 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784  |
This time period holds the possibility for something noteworthy.
12z GFS @ hour 192: 
gfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 66.69K )
Number of downloads: 112z ECMWF @ hour 168:
f168.gif ( 110.42K )
Number of downloads: 1
12zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif ( 71.3K )
Number of downloads: 3If nothing else, an impressive shot of cold air follows on the 12z Euro @ hour 192:
12zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif ( 71.47K )
Number of downloads: 2Hour 216:
12zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif ( 71.58K )
Number of downloads: 2This post has been edited by bigmt: Feb 9 2012, 05:43 PM |
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Feb 3 2012, 02:11 PM
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#2
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,113 Joined: 23-November 10 From: Ottawa, Ontario Member No.: 24,422 |
My bet is that will be our last cold air shot for 2012, if it even happens...
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Feb 3 2012, 02:14 PM
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#3
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,085 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Burlington, ON Member No.: 21,757 |
Dear god.. if we get a snowstorm on the 11th I'll *bleep* my pants. I have to be in Toronto that day for a concert... knowing my luck, there will be a big blizzard..
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Feb 3 2012, 06:14 PM
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#4
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,827 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
System is suppressed on the 18z GFS @ hour 168:
gfs_namer_168_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 61.78K )
Number of downloads: 0 |
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Feb 3 2012, 08:18 PM
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#5
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,915 Joined: 19-August 09 From: nova scotia cape breton Member No.: 18,972 |
Only thing to do is wait i want a big nor easter here in nova scotia we didnt get one blizzard warning yet we usually get at least 1 but none the past 3 years its terrible our winter sucks ..
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Feb 4 2012, 06:36 AM
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#6
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,827 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
00z ECMWF @ hour 144:
00zeuro850mbTSLPUS144.gif ( 65.76K )
Number of downloads: 1Hour 168:
00zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif ( 65.33K )
Number of downloads: 1Hour 192:
00zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif ( 69.72K )
Number of downloads: 106z GFS is even more squashed than before:
gfs_namer_156_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 60.03K )
Number of downloads: 0QUOTE(shane o mac @ Feb 3 2012, 08:18 PM)  Only thing to do is wait i want a big nor easter here in nova scotia we didnt get one blizzard warning yet we usually get at least 1 but none the past 3 years its terrible our winter sucks .. Euro snowfall at hour 144 looks nice for you.
eurosnowns.jpg ( 280.49K )
Number of downloads: 8 |
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Feb 4 2012, 06:40 AM
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#7
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,827 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
06z GFS has a pretty decent fantasy-looking storm by hour 240:
gfs_namer_240_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 61.07K )
Number of downloads: 5The 00z run also had something then, hour 252:
gfs_namer_252_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 60.62K )
Number of downloads: 3 |
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Feb 4 2012, 07:52 AM
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#8
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,113 Joined: 23-November 10 From: Ottawa, Ontario Member No.: 24,422 |
850 line already getting close with those last runs. And it happens again
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Feb 4 2012, 08:45 AM
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,114 Joined: 4-March 10 From: Near Montreal - north shore Member No.: 22,222 |
Usually we call it death ridge in May during the tornado season, now we got a winter death ridge - no storm on the continent (central), everything is pushed away on the coast line or at sea (east , west , south, and north).
This post has been edited by Regg: Feb 4 2012, 09:03 AM |
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| Removed_Member_thehammer_* |
Feb 4 2012, 11:39 AM
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#10
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Guests |
QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Feb 4 2012, 07:52 AM) 850 line already getting close with those last runs. And it happens again Don't get excited. We all know the drill. It will either vanish from the models, or go so far NW that we all hit double digits with rain. |
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Feb 4 2012, 12:10 PM
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#11
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,827 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
Rather than the one storm around the 14th, the 12z GFS has two pieces of energy moving through in quick succession.
Hour 216:
gfs_namer_216_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 59.67K )
Number of downloads: 1Hour 252:
gfs_namer_252_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 58.81K )
Number of downloads: 1 |
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Feb 4 2012, 01:57 PM
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,827 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
12z ECMWF @ hour 144:
12zeuro850mbTSLPUS144.gif ( 65.5K )
Number of downloads: 0Hour 168:
12zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif ( 66.77K )
Number of downloads: 0 |
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Feb 4 2012, 05:49 PM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,827 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
18z GFS flopping back to the action on the 14th idea @ hour 240:
gfs_namer_240_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 63.16K )
Number of downloads: 2Gonna be a long week sorting this out lol 
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Feb 4 2012, 11:37 PM
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#14
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,080 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500 |
on an earlier storm potential note: closest it comes just about:
   with a slightly earlier shift, that could easily shift west some. as well, remember, still about 144 hours out. 
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Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)! http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/ "Get Up-To-Date Forecasts on Upcoming weather events across South-Eastern North America!" |
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Feb 4 2012, 11:40 PM
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 763 Joined: 15-February 09 From: Toronto Member No.: 17,593 |
Need to keep an eye on the the high pressure over northern Ontario
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Feb 4 2012, 11:41 PM
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,080 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500 |
QUOTE(weatherman 23 @ Feb 4 2012, 11:40 PM) Need to keep an eye on the the high pressure over northern Ontario among many other things! but yes, indeed.
-------------------- New blog for southern Ontario!
Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)! http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/ "Get Up-To-Date Forecasts on Upcoming weather events across South-Eastern North America!" |
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Feb 4 2012, 11:48 PM
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,080 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500 |
2nd storm potential in this period from 00z gfs:
 
-------------------- New blog for southern Ontario!
Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)! http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/ "Get Up-To-Date Forecasts on Upcoming weather events across South-Eastern North America!" |
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Feb 5 2012, 06:50 AM
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,827 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
Now that the Euro is coming further within range, looks like the cold sweeps in and heads out just as quickly.
00z ECMWF @ hour 144:
00zeuro850mbTSLPUS144.gif ( 68.3K )
Number of downloads: 1Hour 168:
00zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif ( 68.07K )
Number of downloads: 2By hour 216 it's mild again:
00zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif ( 61.41K )
Number of downloads: 1Then by hour 240 there's the possibility of a storm and another dose of cold air behind it:
00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif ( 66.65K )
Number of downloads: 2 |
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Feb 5 2012, 08:30 AM
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#19
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,915 Joined: 19-August 09 From: nova scotia cape breton Member No.: 18,972 |
QUOTE(bigmt @ Feb 4 2012, 07:36 AM) 00z ECMWF @ hour 144:
00zeuro850mbTSLPUS144.gif ( 65.76K )
Number of downloads: 1Hour 168:
00zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif ( 65.33K )
Number of downloads: 1Hour 192:
00zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif ( 69.72K )
Number of downloads: 106z GFS is even more squashed than before:
gfs_namer_156_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 60.03K )
Number of downloads: 0Euro snowfall at hour 144 looks nice for you.
eurosnowns.jpg ( 280.49K )
Number of downloads: 8How about now for the nova scotia ? |
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Feb 5 2012, 11:40 AM
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 509 Joined: 7-December 08 From: Toronto/Ottawa Member No.: 16,378 |
I hate to say it, but this upcoming cold is no longer looking as impressive. The AO is apparently forecast to go positive again.
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