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> Invest 90L, Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential: Medium - 30%
greenappleman7
post Feb 5 2012, 01:31 PM
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Not sure how to start this thread properly but it appears 90L has formed.
wunderground
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NYCSuburbs
post Feb 5 2012, 01:39 PM
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QUOTE(greenappleman7 @ Feb 5 2012, 01:31 PM) *
Not sure how to start this thread properly but it appears 90L has formed.
wunderground

90L in February, plants growing in my back yard, almost no coat weather... forget about "winter", I'm already excited for this summer and the upcoming hurricane season laugh.gif
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Superstorm93
post Feb 5 2012, 01:41 PM
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Low is closed, this could become STS Alberto...


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Snow____
post Feb 5 2012, 01:41 PM
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Yeah, bring on summer, warm weather, severe weather, and hurricanes.


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Superstorm93
post Feb 5 2012, 01:47 PM
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000
WHXX01 KWBC 051619
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1619 UTC SUN FEB 5 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120205 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120205 1200 120206 0000 120206 1200 120207 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 86.0W 22.7N 86.4W 23.0N 86.5W 23.3N 86.4W
BAMD 22.0N 86.0W 24.0N 84.7W 26.3N 82.3W 29.0N 77.5W
BAMM 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.7W 23.7N 84.7W 24.9N 83.0W
LBAR 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.3W 24.2N 83.8W 25.2N 80.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120207 1200 120208 1200 120209 1200 120210 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.8N 86.2W 25.5N 84.5W 28.1N 82.1W 31.9N 76.4W
BAMD 31.3N 68.8W 29.7N 50.6W 25.6N 45.5W 20.8N 45.2W
BAMM 26.7N 80.2W 30.1N 69.6W 32.3N 55.5W 30.6N 48.2W
LBAR 26.1N 77.0W 25.9N 68.9W 26.3N 63.5W 23.5N 60.6W
SHIP 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 22.0N LONM24 = 86.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


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NYCSuburbs
post Feb 5 2012, 01:52 PM
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QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ Feb 5 2012, 01:41 PM) *
Low is closed, this could become STS Alberto...


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How I missed using the tropical weather links... the wind shear is around 20 knots, which isn't very low but isn't too high either, with the shear decreasing in that particular area. 20 knots of shear isn't favorable but could be enough to allow this to become a subtropical cyclone if it can continue to hold a closed low. It doesn't look like it should be a quick moving disturbance, but apparently could drift slowly to the NE. SSTs are marginal at this time, and are colder to the NE of the storm, so much intensification shouldn't take place. It's definitely worth of being named 90L, but I'd give this only a 10-20% chance of becoming a STD or STS.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Feb 5 2012, 01:52 PM
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Superstorm93
post Feb 5 2012, 02:20 PM
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NorEaster07
post Feb 5 2012, 02:54 PM
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"From the National Hurricane Center at 1 PM Sunday 2/5

A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N86W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. THIS AREA IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT"

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--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NorEaster07
post Feb 5 2012, 03:37 PM
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Anyone know how many times something actually formed in February?

I found this. 1952 GroundHog Day Tropical Storm
I love these old maps. :-)

Pressure map showing the Groundhog Day Tropical Storm of 1952 as a 1005mb low pressure system over Florida



Pressure map showing the Groundhog Day Tropical Storm as an extra-tropical storm off of the Eastern Seaboard.


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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USA Weather
post Feb 5 2012, 03:48 PM
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It is kind of depressing when the tropics are the most interesting thing to follow this winter.


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snowrawrsnow
post Feb 5 2012, 03:49 PM
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Didn't think I'd be breaking out the Tropical Weather bookmarks this early blink.gif

So much for winter. Oh well, bring on the Tropics!


Looks like there's 20 or 30 kt sheer around it, which isn't too strong, but could inhibit enough for us not to see a STD or storm. That being said, the storm looks to have a closed low, and gulf temps are still warm enough for this to become a system. I'd say a 50/50 chance of it being the first system of 2012, and a 30% of becoming our first named system. Nonetheless, an interesting system.


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The Snowman
post Feb 5 2012, 03:52 PM
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This is too funny.

February 5th, 2011: Clean-up from GHD Blizzard continues.
February 5th, 2012: Watching for possible development of (S)TS Alberto
laugh.gif laugh.gif


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Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


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NYCSuburbs
post Feb 5 2012, 04:02 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Feb 5 2012, 03:52 PM) *
This is too funny.

February 5th, 2011: Clean-up from GHD Blizzard continues.
February 5th, 2012: Watching for possible development of (S)TS Alberto
laugh.gif laugh.gif

Wait, it's February? I thought we skipped from November straight to May laugh.gif
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The Day After To...
post Feb 5 2012, 05:02 PM
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Ok then...


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NorEaster07
post Feb 5 2012, 05:10 PM
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Only a little area is above 78 Degrees. Most of the Gulf currently is between 70-75 Degrees.

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--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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jdrenken
post Feb 5 2012, 05:18 PM
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Just to think this feature was laughed about when it was shown on the GFS.


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jdrenken
post Feb 5 2012, 05:21 PM
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QUOTE
@CIMSS

Lots of ship reports out there to help sample tropical Invest 90L: GOES-13 visible images:


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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The Day After To...
post Feb 5 2012, 05:24 PM
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Rotation is good.

JD, does a ST storm need warmer water?


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greenappleman7
post Feb 5 2012, 05:44 PM
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It happens to be over a ~78F area. Shear is not great but it is lower than surrounding areas. That's why NHC has a 20% and not 0% chance of development.
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The Snowman
post Feb 5 2012, 06:03 PM
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Are there any dynamical models available for this storm?
Raleighwx's models are not displaying 90L.

OT...Super Bowl time! wink.gif


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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