 Invest 90L, Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential: Medium - 30% |
AccuWeather.com Forums > Weather Forums > Current Weather - United States > Current Tropical Season Weather  |
 Feb 5 2012, 01:31 PM
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#1
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Rank: Tornado  Group: Member Posts: 55 Joined: 20-July 11 Member No.: 25,826  |
Not sure how to start this thread properly but it appears 90L has formed.
wunderground
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Feb 5 2012, 01:39 PM
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#2
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,279 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
QUOTE(greenappleman7 @ Feb 5 2012, 01:31 PM)  Not sure how to start this thread properly but it appears 90L has formed. wunderground 90L in February, plants growing in my back yard, almost no coat weather... forget about "winter", I'm already excited for this summer and the upcoming hurricane season 
-------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Feb 5 2012, 01:41 PM
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#3
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,860 Joined: 24-January 08 From: Nowhere, ND Member No.: 13,040 |
Low is closed, this could become STS Alberto...
-------------------- -Mike P
Realism |
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Feb 5 2012, 01:41 PM
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#4
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,758 Joined: 16-November 08 From: Cincinnati, OH Member No.: 16,172 |
Yeah, bring on summer, warm weather, severe weather, and hurricanes.
-------------------- Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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Feb 5 2012, 01:47 PM
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#5
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,860 Joined: 24-January 08 From: Nowhere, ND Member No.: 13,040 |
000
WHXX01 KWBC 051619 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1619 UTC SUN FEB 5 2012 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120205 1200 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 120205 1200 120206 0000 120206 1200 120207 0000 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 22.0N 86.0W 22.7N 86.4W 23.0N 86.5W 23.3N 86.4W BAMD 22.0N 86.0W 24.0N 84.7W 26.3N 82.3W 29.0N 77.5W BAMM 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.7W 23.7N 84.7W 24.9N 83.0W LBAR 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.3W 24.2N 83.8W 25.2N 80.8W SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 120207 1200 120208 1200 120209 1200 120210 1200 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 23.8N 86.2W 25.5N 84.5W 28.1N 82.1W 31.9N 76.4W BAMD 31.3N 68.8W 29.7N 50.6W 25.6N 45.5W 20.8N 45.2W BAMM 26.7N 80.2W 30.1N 69.6W 32.3N 55.5W 30.6N 48.2W LBAR 26.1N 77.0W 25.9N 68.9W 26.3N 63.5W 23.5N 60.6W SHIP 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT LATM24 = 22.0N LONM24 = 86.0W WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM -------------------- -Mike P
Realism |
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Feb 5 2012, 01:52 PM
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#6
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,279 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ Feb 5 2012, 01:41 PM) Low is closed, this could become STS Alberto...
How I missed using the tropical weather links... the wind shear is around 20 knots, which isn't very low but isn't too high either, with the shear decreasing in that particular area. 20 knots of shear isn't favorable but could be enough to allow this to become a subtropical cyclone if it can continue to hold a closed low. It doesn't look like it should be a quick moving disturbance, but apparently could drift slowly to the NE. SSTs are marginal at this time, and are colder to the NE of the storm, so much intensification shouldn't take place. It's definitely worth of being named 90L, but I'd give this only a 10-20% chance of becoming a STD or STS. This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Feb 5 2012, 01:52 PM -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Feb 5 2012, 02:20 PM
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#7
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,860 Joined: 24-January 08 From: Nowhere, ND Member No.: 13,040 |
-------------------- -Mike P
Realism |
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Feb 5 2012, 02:54 PM
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#8
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,427 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864 |
"From the National Hurricane Center at 1 PM Sunday 2/5 A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N86W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. THIS AREA IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT"  -------------------- Snow Totals Per Season:
2007-08: 21" 2008-09: 41" 2009-10: 39.5" 2010-11: 71.5" 2011-12: 14" 2012-13: 46.5" Average(since 1950) = 27.75" |
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Feb 5 2012, 03:37 PM
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,427 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864 |
Anyone know how many times something actually formed in February?
I found this. 1952 GroundHog Day Tropical Storm I love these old maps. :-) Pressure map showing the Groundhog Day Tropical Storm of 1952 as a 1005mb low pressure system over Florida  Pressure map showing the Groundhog Day Tropical Storm as an extra-tropical storm off of the Eastern Seaboard. 
-------------------- Snow Totals Per Season:
2007-08: 21" 2008-09: 41" 2009-10: 39.5" 2010-11: 71.5" 2011-12: 14" 2012-13: 46.5" Average(since 1950) = 27.75" |
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Feb 5 2012, 03:48 PM
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#10
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 314 Joined: 7-August 11 Member No.: 25,873 |
It is kind of depressing when the tropics are the most interesting thing to follow this winter.
-------------------- USA Weather Blog(Click Here) [Currently not being updated]
2013 Severe Weather: Slight Risks: 1 Moderate Risks: 0 High Risks: 0 |
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Feb 5 2012, 03:49 PM
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#11
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 438 Joined: 6-July 11 From: New Castle, PA Member No.: 25,804 |
Didn't think I'd be breaking out the Tropical Weather bookmarks this early
 So much for winter. Oh well, bring on the Tropics!  Looks like there's 20 or 30 kt sheer around it, which isn't too strong, but could inhibit enough for us not to see a STD or storm. That being said, the storm looks to have a closed low, and gulf temps are still warm enough for this to become a system. I'd say a 50/50 chance of it being the first system of 2012, and a 30% of becoming our first named system. Nonetheless, an interesting system. -------------------- ~Snowy♥
QUOTE There's a blaze of light in every word It doesn't matter which you heard The holy or the broken Hallelujah |
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Feb 5 2012, 03:52 PM
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#12
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,479 Joined: 7-December 10 From: Chicago Member No.: 24,567 |
This is too funny.
February 5th, 2011: Clean-up from GHD Blizzard continues. February 5th, 2012: Watching for possible development of (S)TS Alberto
-------------------- My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com
2013 Severe Weather Season Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4 Slight Risk Days: 4 Moderate Risk Days: 0 High Risk Days: 0 Annual Snowfall 2012-2013: 37.5'' QUOTE When looking at the models: Trends, trends, trends! |
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Feb 5 2012, 04:02 PM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,279 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
QUOTE(The Snowman @ Feb 5 2012, 03:52 PM) This is too funny. February 5th, 2011: Clean-up from GHD Blizzard continues. February 5th, 2012: Watching for possible development of (S)TS Alberto Wait, it's February? I thought we skipped from November straight to May
-------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Feb 5 2012, 05:02 PM
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#14
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,554 Joined: 17-April 10 From: Wappinger Falls, NY Member No.: 22,541 |
Ok then...
-------------------- SvrWxWARN |
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Feb 5 2012, 05:10 PM
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,427 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864 |
Only a little area is above 78 Degrees. Most of the Gulf currently is between 70-75 Degrees.
-------------------- Snow Totals Per Season:
2007-08: 21" 2008-09: 41" 2009-10: 39.5" 2010-11: 71.5" 2011-12: 14" 2012-13: 46.5" Average(since 1950) = 27.75" |
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Feb 5 2012, 05:18 PM
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
Just to think this feature was laughed about when it was shown on the GFS.
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Feb 5 2012, 05:21 PM
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
QUOTE
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Feb 5 2012, 05:24 PM
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,554 Joined: 17-April 10 From: Wappinger Falls, NY Member No.: 22,541 |
Rotation is good.
JD, does a ST storm need warmer water? -------------------- SvrWxWARN |
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Feb 5 2012, 05:44 PM
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#19
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 55 Joined: 20-July 11 Member No.: 25,826 |
It happens to be over a ~78F area. Shear is not great but it is lower than surrounding areas. That's why NHC has a 20% and not 0% chance of development.
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Feb 5 2012, 06:03 PM
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,479 Joined: 7-December 10 From: Chicago Member No.: 24,567 |
Are there any dynamical models available for this storm?
Raleighwx's models are not displaying 90L. OT...Super Bowl time! 
-------------------- My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com
2013 Severe Weather Season Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4 Slight Risk Days: 4 Moderate Risk Days: 0 High Risk Days: 0 Annual Snowfall 2012-2013: 37.5'' QUOTE When looking at the models: Trends, trends, trends! |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 24th May 2013 - 05:46 AM |