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#1
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 32,559 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA Member No.: 21,746 ![]() |
I figured I might as well start an obsx thread since precip is knocking on the doorstep of our western regions. Figured I'd give a bit of a different perspective than the standard (it's not obligatory is it?) radar shot.
![]() http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html AFDCTP (aka NWS State College) is saying 2+" out of this for IMBY - around the lunch hours QUOTE Hazardous Weather Outlook Today: Snow, mainly after noon. High near 35. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tonight: Snow, mainly before 11pm. Low around 25. Light north wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off QUOTE 850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION IS RAMPING UP JUST TO OUR WEST...ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL HELP TO QUICKLY EXPAND THE LEADING EDGE OF A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHIELD NE INTO THE SW COUNTIES OF OUR CWA BETWEEN 12-14Z. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE ONSET OF PERIODS OF LIGHTER SNOW MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 17-18Z ACROSS THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A POTENT 300 MB JET SLIDES ACROSS SRN PENN DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SOME BANDS OF ENHANCED 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ROUTE 22/322 CORRIDOR THAT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES AND DROP VSBYS DOWN TO ABOUT ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS POSTED FOR 6 OF OUR SCENT AND SW COUNTIES FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST...WHERE A GENERAL STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF AROUND 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME LOCALS /MAINLY ON THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE LAURELS/ SEEING 4-5 INCHES. THE LATEST U.S...EURO AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF LIQ QPF/SNOWFALL. HIGHS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN PENN WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OR RISE JUST A FEW DEG F AS SNOW BEGINS TO FALL INTO THE RELATIVELY DRY LLVL DEWPOINTS - IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. AFTERNOON MAXS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD REACH 33-35F...CAUSING THE SNOW/WATER RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY UNDER 10:1...AND HOLDING STORM TOTAL ACCUMS TO AROUND 2 INCHES...JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF STEADILY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH /AND MEAGER SFC WAVE/ SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/VA COAST. SHALLOW BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER...A 5-10 KT NW SFC WIND AND JUST A FEW MTN FLURRIES WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. -------------------- |
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#2
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Rank: Tornado ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 269 Joined: 13-January 08 From: baltimore, md Member No.: 12,462 ![]() |
36 and cloudy here in Baltimore. Temps are to warm here especially since they will go up a few before the precip comes in. This will be a north and west of town event like the previous events have been. It's to warm to accumulate in town.
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#3
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 757 Joined: 3-December 09 From: Salisbury MD Member No.: 19,948 ![]() |
I'm heading up to Blue knob ski resort this afternoon, I believe the closest town is calysburg, pa. We had planned on leaving home around 4pm and arriving around 9-10, just want to make sure this is only a minor event and that road conditions won't be to bad? Down here on the eastern shore 1" and 1 out of every 3 cars is off the road, haha.
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#4
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 32,559 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA Member No.: 21,746 ![]() |
I'm heading up to Blue knob ski resort this afternoon, I believe the closest town is calysburg, pa. We had planned on leaving home around 4pm and arriving around 9-10, just want to make sure this is only a minor event and that road conditions won't be to bad? Down here on the eastern shore 1" and 1 out of every 3 cars is off the road, haha. Well, even though we've not had much practice driving during daylight weekday hours, I think things will be OK. Some cars (like Mustangs for ex) go crazy in a drizzle so it depends on what you're driving as mostly just wet conditions should prevail, maybe some slushy or shoulder snow coatings to make turns tricky - but in the main, no worries I would imagine. -------------------- |
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#5
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 1,874 Joined: 22-January 08 From: Fredericksburg , VA Member No.: 12,879 ![]() |
Well being on the rain snow line (which is par for the course where I live)
QUOTE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS WELL AS THE I-270 AND I-70 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH LOCATIONS ALONG THE RAIN-SNOW LINE RECIEVING MUCH LESS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. SEE WSW FOR DETAILS ON TIMING AND EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS. WITH PAVEMENT AND AIR TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE BULK OF THE EVENT...SNOW MAY HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING ON ROADS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE METROPOLITAN AREAS. NONETHELESS...THE LATE AFTN AND EVE RUSH-HOUR COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED. SFC TEMPS THIS AFTN ACROSS DC...SRN MD AND CENTRAL VA WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO CUT DOWN ON ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS... BUT THERE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAINITY WITH WHERE THE RAIN-SNOW WILL SET UP. NWS Sterling If I get 15 flakes at my home it will be a sucess ![]() BTW I am at my office (50 Miles NW of Fredericksburg, and 20 Miles west of DC) 34 and dark:) -------------------- The weather is what it is and nothing will change it but trying to forecast it is a lot of fun. It’s Meteorology NOT Modelology |
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#6
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 20,962 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 ![]() |
Radar loop 6:15am - 7:30am
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#7
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Rank: Tornado ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 397 Joined: 5-February 10 From: Jenkintown, PA 19046 Member No.: 21,463 ![]() |
32 and cloudy
-------------------- Total Snowfall for Past Winters
2010/11 Season 46.3" 2011/12 Season 7.9" 2012/13 Season 17" 2013/14 Season 67.6" 2014/15 Snow Events 11/26/14 1.0" 12/11/14 0.5" 01/06/15 1.7" 01/09/15 0.3" 01/21/15 0.3" 01/24/15 2.0" 01/27/15 2.5" 01/30/15 0.5" 02/01/12 1.5" 02/15/15 2.0" 02/17/15 5.0" 02/21/15 4.5" 02/26/15 0.5" 03/01/15 1.2" 03/03/15 0.4" 03/05/15 9.0" 03/20/15 6.0" Total snowfall for 2014/15 Season 39" |
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#8
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 9,134 Joined: 19-December 08 From: Robbinsville, NJ Member No.: 16,588 ![]() |
Well, even though we've not had much practice driving during daylight weekday hours, I think things will be OK. Some cars (like Mustangs for ex) go crazy in a drizzle so it depends on what you're driving as mostly just wet conditions should prevail, maybe some slushy or shoulder snow coatings to make turns tricky - but in the main, no worries I would imagine. ![]() Two winters ago we had a 1/2" of snow, my mustang couldn't even make it up my driveway!! Neighbor kid across street had to help with a little push to get her going, driveway is maybe on a 4 degree incline. ![]() -------------------- Winter '17-'18 12/9 - 5.5" 12/13-14 - 1.5" 12/15 - 2.25" 12/30 - 4" 1/4 - 6.5" 1/17 - 1" 2/17 - 3.5" 3/2 - 0.5" 3/7 - 10.25" (thanks PARD) 3/13 - 2.25" 3/21 - 11.5" Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5" Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5" Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5" Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0" |
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#9
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 967 Joined: 8-January 10 From: Lower Makefield PA Member No.: 20,851 ![]() |
34 mostly cloudy in Hamilton NJ (Mercer County).
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#10
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 33,603 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 ![]() |
It's a tough one... all of the models except for the NAM show at least 0.06-0.1" QPF in NYC, but the NAM still barely has a trace. Considering that it's the short range and this is a tight cutoff, I am siding closer to the NAM with this one, although I still expect to see at least some snow showers with no accumulation tonight.
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#11
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,825 Joined: 11-January 08 From: Jericho, VT • 20 miles east of Burlington, VT Member No.: 12,324 ![]() |
It's a tough one... all of the models except for the NAM show at least 0.06-0.1" QPF in NYC, but the NAM still barely has a trace. Considering that it's the short range and this is a tight cutoff, I am siding closer to the NAM with this one, although I still expect to see at least some snow showers with no accumulation tonight. There could be a more rapid coastal Development and this could enhance or increase snowfall from coastal NJ up to NYC and parts of SNE. Also, I think the NAM isn't handling this particular storm very well. The radar is more blossomed and juicer than what the NAM is showing. I really do think there will be snow amounts that surprise us all later this evening. -------------------- Dave • Jericho, VT
Eastern Chittenden County |
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#12
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 20,962 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 ![]() |
![]() Two winters ago we had a 1/2" of snow, my mustang couldn't even make it up my driveway!! Neighbor kid across street had to help with a little push to get her going, driveway is maybe on a 4 degree incline. ![]() Freestyle music, Mustangs, Seems like we have same taste. ![]() Photo didnt have a date on it but it was mid 1990s. ![]() ![]() |
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#13
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![]() Rank: Tornado ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 344 Joined: 7-November 09 From: Orefield, PA Member No.: 19,681 ![]() |
30' and partly sunny here in Orefield, PA. Looks like lots of virga headed our way, or is it
actually hitting the ground in the Harrisburg area? ![]() |
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#14
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 20,962 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 ![]() |
30' and partly sunny here in Orefield, PA. Looks like lots of virga headed our way, or is it actually hitting the ground in the Harrisburg area? ![]() In Harrisburg, No. But SouthWest PA it is. http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPIT.html Holding steady near 30 here. |
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#15
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![]() Rank: Whirlwind ![]() Group: Member Posts: 29 Joined: 7-March 08 From: Altoona, PA Member No.: 14,264 ![]() |
I'm heading up to Blue knob ski resort this afternoon, I believe the closest town is calysburg, pa. We had planned on leaving home around 4pm and arriving around 9-10, just want to make sure this is only a minor event and that road conditions won't be to bad? Down here on the eastern shore 1" and 1 out of every 3 cars is off the road, haha. I live about 20 minutes from Blue Knob. It's snowing here now...very light and just starting to accumulate on the grassy areas. It's right at 32 degrees at the moment. If you are headed here now, you should be fine. I hope you are staying the night! Have fun! |
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#16
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 9,134 Joined: 19-December 08 From: Robbinsville, NJ Member No.: 16,588 ![]() |
Freestyle music, Mustangs, Seems like we have same taste. ![]() Photo didnt have a date on it but it was mid 1990s. ![]() Last year during one of the nice storms. ![]() ![]() ![]() -------------------- Winter '17-'18 12/9 - 5.5" 12/13-14 - 1.5" 12/15 - 2.25" 12/30 - 4" 1/4 - 6.5" 1/17 - 1" 2/17 - 3.5" 3/2 - 0.5" 3/7 - 10.25" (thanks PARD) 3/13 - 2.25" 3/21 - 11.5" Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5" Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5" Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5" Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0" |
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#17
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Rank: Tornado ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 269 Joined: 11-February 08 From: Bedford Co. PA Member No.: 13,618 ![]() |
Snow just started falling here.
Calling for 1-3 inches. Better then nothing I guess! |
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 27,716 Joined: 8-January 09 From: Westchester County, NY Member No.: 16,816 ![]() |
NAM still says basically nothing for NYC.
-------------------- 2013-2014 Snowfall
11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting 12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting 12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting 12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch 12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches 12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches |
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#19
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 12,446 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 ![]() |
As some are already aware the NWS for the Baltimore/DC area's has issued a WWA has been posted for my area along with several surrounding counties in North/North-Central and Western Maryland, along with locations in South West PA (Laurel Highlands) Northern VA and Eastern WV (Mountains)
Seems like this stretch of real-estate is going to be the "Jack Pot" zone....if you want to call it that, but hey with the track record of this Winter (or lack there of) ANY snowfall that even whitens the ground would be considered a bonus "Jack Pot Zone" ![]() QUOTE ***Winter Weather Advisory*** NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 327 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSH HOUR. STEADY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S. * WINDS...NORTHEAST UP TO 5 MPH. Source
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#20
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![]() Rank: Tornado ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 393 Joined: 17-December 09 From: Denver PA Member No.: 20,330 ![]() |
As some are already aware the NWS for the Baltimore/DC area's has issued a WWA has been posted for my area along with several surrounding counties in North/North-Central and Western Maryland, along with locations in South West PA (Laurel Highlands) Northern VA and Eastern WV (Mountains) Seems like this stretch of real-estate is going to be the "Jack Pot" zone....if you want to call it that, but hey with the track record of this Winter (or lack there of) ANY snowfall that even whitens the ground would be considered a bonus "Jack Pot Zone" ![]() Source I think temps are going to play a problem in the Balto. Area. Northwest suburbs should fair better definitely the temps are not great at all for accumulations. The later it holds off may help since temps will fall nicely later. This post has been edited by Stormlogger: Feb 8 2012, 09:54 AM |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 23rd April 2018 - 11:50 PM |