Feb 8-9 MidAtl/NE Storm OBS, Please Post Last Minute Forecast and OBS Options

[Undertakerson]

I figured I might as well start an obsx thread since precip is knocking on the doorstep of our western regions. Figured I'd give a bit of a different perspective than the standard (it's not obligatory is it?) radar shot.



http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html

AFDCTP (aka NWS State College) is saying 2+" out of this for IMBY - around the lunch hours

Hazardous Weather Outlook


Today: Snow, mainly after noon. High near 35. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow, mainly before 11pm. Low around 25. Light north wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION IS RAMPING UP JUST TO OUR WEST...ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL HELP TO QUICKLY
EXPAND THE LEADING EDGE OF A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHIELD NE INTO
THE SW COUNTIES OF OUR CWA BETWEEN 12-14Z. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE ONSET OF PERIODS OF LIGHTER SNOW MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 17-18Z ACROSS THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT.

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A POTENT 300 MB JET SLIDES ACROSS SRN PENN
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SOME BANDS OF ENHANCED
850-700 FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ROUTE
22/322 CORRIDOR THAT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES AND DROP
VSBYS DOWN TO ABOUT ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS POSTED FOR 6 OF OUR SCENT AND SW
COUNTIES FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST...WHERE A GENERAL STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL OF AROUND 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME LOCALS
/MAINLY ON THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE LAURELS/ SEEING 4-5 INCHES. THE
LATEST U.S...EURO AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF LIQ QPF/SNOWFALL.

HIGHS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN PENN WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OR
RISE JUST A FEW DEG F AS SNOW BEGINS TO FALL INTO THE RELATIVELY DRY
LLVL DEWPOINTS - IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. AFTERNOON MAXS
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD REACH 33-35F...CAUSING THE SNOW/WATER
RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY UNDER 10:1...AND HOLDING STORM TOTAL ACCUMS TO
AROUND 2 INCHES...JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF STEADILY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH /AND MEAGER SFC WAVE/ SLIDES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC/VA COAST. SHALLOW BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER...A 5-10 KT NW SFC
WIND AND JUST A FEW MTN FLURRIES WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT.

[finatic jason]

36 and cloudy here in Baltimore. Temps are to warm here especially since they will go up a few before the precip comes in. This will be a north and west of town event like the previous events have been. It's to warm to accumulate in town.

[Keith3565]

I'm heading up to Blue knob ski resort this afternoon, I believe the closest town is calysburg, pa. We had planned on leaving home around 4pm and arriving around 9-10, just want to make sure this is only a minor event and that road conditions won't be to bad? Down here on the eastern shore 1" and 1 out of every 3 cars is off the road, haha.

[Undertakerson]

I'm heading up to Blue knob ski resort this afternoon, I believe the closest town is calysburg, pa. We had planned on leaving home around 4pm and arriving around 9-10, just want to make sure this is only a minor event and that road conditions won't be to bad? Down here on the eastern shore 1" and 1 out of every 3 cars is off the road, haha.

Well, even though we've not had much practice driving during daylight weekday hours, I think things will be OK. Some cars (like Mustangs for ex) go crazy in a drizzle so it depends on what you're driving as mostly just wet conditions should prevail, maybe some slushy or shoulder snow coatings to make turns tricky - but in the main, no worries I would imagine.

[wtkidz]

Well being on the rain snow line (which is par for the course where I live)

HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS WELL AS THE I-270 AND I-70 CORRIDOR. THERE
WILL BE A TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH LOCATIONS ALONG THE RAIN-SNOW
LINE RECIEVING MUCH LESS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. SEE WSW FOR DETAILS
ON TIMING AND EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS. WITH PAVEMENT AND AIR TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE BULK OF THE EVENT...SNOW MAY HAVE A HARD
TIME ACCUMULATING ON ROADS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE METROPOLITAN
AREAS. NONETHELESS...THE LATE AFTN AND EVE RUSH-HOUR COMMUTE WILL BE
IMPACTED. SFC TEMPS THIS AFTN ACROSS DC...SRN MD AND CENTRAL VA WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO CUT DOWN ON ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...
BUT THERE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAINITY WITH WHERE THE RAIN-SNOW
WILL SET UP.

NWS Sterling

If I get 15 flakes at my home it will be a sucess

BTW I am at my office (50 Miles NW of Fredericksburg, and 20 Miles west of DC) 34 and dark:)

[NorEaster07]

Radar loop 6:15am - 7:30am

[ggazonas]

32 and cloudy

[LUCC]

Well, even though we've not had much practice driving during daylight weekday hours, I think things will be OK. Some cars (like Mustangs for ex) go crazy in a drizzle so it depends on what you're driving as mostly just wet conditions should prevail, maybe some slushy or shoulder snow coatings to make turns tricky - but in the main, no worries I would imagine.

Two winters ago we had a 1/2" of snow, my mustang couldn't even make it up my driveway!! Neighbor kid across street had to help with a little push to get her going, driveway is maybe on a 4 degree incline.

[MP - Bucks Co PA]

34 mostly cloudy in Hamilton NJ (Mercer County).

[NYCSuburbs]

It's a tough one... all of the models except for the NAM show at least 0.06-0.1" QPF in NYC, but the NAM still barely has a trace. Considering that it's the short range and this is a tight cutoff, I am siding closer to the NAM with this one, although I still expect to see at least some snow showers with no accumulation tonight.

[snofan]

It's a tough one... all of the models except for the NAM show at least 0.06-0.1" QPF in NYC, but the NAM still barely has a trace. Considering that it's the short range and this is a tight cutoff, I am siding closer to the NAM with this one, although I still expect to see at least some snow showers with no accumulation tonight.

There could be a more rapid coastal Development and this could enhance or increase snowfall from coastal NJ up to NYC and parts of SNE. Also, I think the NAM isn't handling this particular storm very well. The radar is more blossomed and juicer than what the NAM is showing. I really do think there will be snow amounts that surprise us all later this evening.

[NorEaster07]

Two winters ago we had a 1/2" of snow, my mustang couldn't even make it up my driveway!! Neighbor kid across street had to help with a little push to get her going, driveway is maybe on a 4 degree incline.

Freestyle music, Mustangs, Seems like we have same taste. lol

Photo didnt have a date on it but it was mid 1990s.

[geeter1]

30' and partly sunny here in Orefield, PA. Looks like lots of virga headed our way, or is it
actually hitting the ground in the Harrisburg area?

[NorEaster07]

30' and partly sunny here in Orefield, PA. Looks like lots of virga headed our way, or is it
actually hitting the ground in the Harrisburg area?

In Harrisburg, No. But SouthWest PA it is. http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPIT.html

Holding steady near 30 here.

[lisainpa]

I'm heading up to Blue knob ski resort this afternoon, I believe the closest town is calysburg, pa. We had planned on leaving home around 4pm and arriving around 9-10, just want to make sure this is only a minor event and that road conditions won't be to bad? Down here on the eastern shore 1" and 1 out of every 3 cars is off the road, haha.

I live about 20 minutes from Blue Knob. It's snowing here now...very light and just starting to accumulate on the grassy areas. It's right at 32 degrees at the moment. If you are headed here now, you should be fine. I hope you are staying the night! Have fun!

[LUCC]

Freestyle music, Mustangs, Seems like we have same taste. lol

Photo didnt have a date on it but it was mid 1990s.

Last year during one of the nice storms. Too bad we haven't had one this year.

[Str8liner]

Snow just started falling here.

Calling for 1-3 inches. Better then nothing I guess!

[LoveNYCSnow]

NAM still says basically nothing for NYC.

[Fire/Rescue]

As some are already aware the NWS for the Baltimore/DC area's has issued a WWA has been posted for my area along with several surrounding counties in North/North-Central and Western Maryland, along with locations in South West PA (Laurel Highlands) Northern VA and Eastern WV (Mountains)

Seems like this stretch of real-estate is going to be the "Jack Pot" zone....if you want to call it that, but hey with the track record of this Winter (or lack there of) ANY snowfall that even whitens the ground would be considered a bonus "Jack Pot Zone"

***Winter Weather Advisory***

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
327 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSH HOUR. STEADY
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST UP TO 5 MPH.

Source

Attached image(s)

 

[Stormlogger]

As some are already aware the NWS for the Baltimore/DC area's has issued a WWA has been posted for my area along with several surrounding counties in North/North-Central and Western Maryland, along with locations in South West PA (Laurel Highlands) Northern VA and Eastern WV (Mountains)

Seems like this stretch of real-estate is going to be the "Jack Pot" zone....if you want to call it that, but hey with the track record of this Winter (or lack there of) ANY snowfall that even whitens the ground would be considered a bonus "Jack Pot Zone"
Source

I think temps are going to play a problem in the Balto. Area. Northwest suburbs should fair better definitely the temps are not great at all for accumulations. The later it holds off may help since temps will fall nicely later.

This post has been edited by Stormlogger: Feb 8 2012, 09:54 AM