Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

13 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Feb 8-9 MidAtl/NE Storm OBS, Please Post Last Minute Forecast and OBS
Undertakerson
post Feb 8 2012, 04:42 AM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,930
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
Member No.: 21,746





I figured I might as well start an obsx thread since precip is knocking on the doorstep of our western regions. Figured I'd give a bit of a different perspective than the standard (it's not obligatory is it?) radar shot.

Attached Image

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html

AFDCTP (aka NWS State College) is saying 2+" out of this for IMBY - around the lunch hours

QUOTE
Hazardous Weather Outlook


Today: Snow, mainly after noon. High near 35. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow, mainly before 11pm. Low around 25. Light north wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

QUOTE
850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION IS RAMPING UP JUST TO OUR WEST...ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL HELP TO QUICKLY
EXPAND THE LEADING EDGE OF A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHIELD NE INTO
THE SW COUNTIES OF OUR CWA BETWEEN 12-14Z. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS.
THE ONSET OF PERIODS OF LIGHTER SNOW MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 17-18Z ACROSS THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT.

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A POTENT 300 MB JET SLIDES ACROSS SRN PENN
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SOME BANDS OF ENHANCED
850-700 FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ROUTE
22/322 CORRIDOR
THAT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES AND DROP
VSBYS DOWN TO ABOUT ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS POSTED FOR 6 OF OUR SCENT AND SW
COUNTIES FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST...WHERE A GENERAL STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL OF AROUND 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME LOCALS
/MAINLY ON THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE LAURELS/ SEEING 4-5 INCHES
. THE
LATEST U.S...EURO AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF LIQ QPF/SNOWFALL.

HIGHS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN PENN WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OR
RISE JUST A FEW DEG F AS SNOW BEGINS TO FALL INTO THE RELATIVELY DRY
LLVL DEWPOINTS - IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. AFTERNOON MAXS
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD REACH 33-35F...CAUSING THE SNOW/WATER
RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY UNDER 10:1...AND HOLDING STORM TOTAL ACCUMS TO
AROUND 2 INCHES...JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF STEADILY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH /AND MEAGER SFC WAVE/ SLIDES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC/VA COAST. SHALLOW BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER...A 5-10 KT NW SFC
WIND AND JUST A FEW MTN FLURRIES WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT.





Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
finatic jason
post Feb 8 2012, 05:23 AM
Post #2




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 269
Joined: 13-January 08
From: baltimore, md
Member No.: 12,462





36 and cloudy here in Baltimore. Temps are to warm here especially since they will go up a few before the precip comes in. This will be a north and west of town event like the previous events have been. It's to warm to accumulate in town.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Keith3565
post Feb 8 2012, 06:24 AM
Post #3




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 359
Joined: 3-December 09
From: Salisbury MD
Member No.: 19,948





I'm heading up to Blue knob ski resort this afternoon, I believe the closest town is calysburg, pa. We had planned on leaving home around 4pm and arriving around 9-10, just want to make sure this is only a minor event and that road conditions won't be to bad? Down here on the eastern shore 1" and 1 out of every 3 cars is off the road, haha.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Feb 8 2012, 06:29 AM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,930
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(Keith3565 @ Feb 8 2012, 06:24 AM) *
I'm heading up to Blue knob ski resort this afternoon, I believe the closest town is calysburg, pa. We had planned on leaving home around 4pm and arriving around 9-10, just want to make sure this is only a minor event and that road conditions won't be to bad? Down here on the eastern shore 1" and 1 out of every 3 cars is off the road, haha.

Well, even though we've not had much practice driving during daylight weekday hours, I think things will be OK. Some cars (like Mustangs for ex) go crazy in a drizzle so it depends on what you're driving as mostly just wet conditions should prevail, maybe some slushy or shoulder snow coatings to make turns tricky - but in the main, no worries I would imagine.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
wtkidz
post Feb 8 2012, 06:55 AM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,335
Joined: 22-January 08
From: Fredericksburg , VA
Member No.: 12,879





Well being on the rain snow line (which is par for the course where I live)

QUOTE
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS WELL AS THE I-270 AND I-70 CORRIDOR. THERE
WILL BE A TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH LOCATIONS ALONG THE RAIN-SNOW
LINE RECIEVING MUCH LESS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. SEE WSW FOR DETAILS
ON TIMING AND EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS. WITH PAVEMENT AND AIR TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE BULK OF THE EVENT...SNOW MAY HAVE A HARD
TIME ACCUMULATING ON ROADS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE METROPOLITAN
AREAS. NONETHELESS...THE LATE AFTN AND EVE RUSH-HOUR COMMUTE WILL BE
IMPACTED. SFC TEMPS THIS AFTN ACROSS DC...SRN MD AND CENTRAL VA WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO CUT DOWN ON ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...
BUT THERE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAINITY WITH WHERE THE RAIN-SNOW
WILL SET UP
.

NWS Sterling

If I get 15 flakes at my home it will be a sucess smile.gif

BTW I am at my office (50 Miles NW of Fredericksburg, and 20 Miles west of DC) 34 and dark:)


--------------------
The weather is what it is and nothing will change it
but trying to forecast it is a lot of fun.



Its Meteorology NOT Modelology
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Feb 8 2012, 07:34 AM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,123
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Radar loop 6:15am - 7:30am



--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.8"
2014-15: 0.8"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.8"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ggazonas
post Feb 8 2012, 07:48 AM
Post #7




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 365
Joined: 5-February 10
From: Jenkintown, PA 19046
Member No.: 21,463





32 and cloudy


--------------------
Total Snowfall for Past Winters

2010/11 Season 46.3"
2011/12 Season 7.9"
2012/13 Season 16.5"
2013/14 Season 62.4"


2013/14 Snow Events

12/08/13 3.8"
12/10/13 4.5"
12/14/13 2.0"
12/17/13 1.0"
01/02/14 7.5"
01/21/14 11.0"
01/25/14 2.3"
01/29/14 0.5"
02/03/14 8.5"
02/05/14 Ice Storm
02/09/14 2.8"
02/13/14 14.5"
02/15/14 1.3"
02/17/14 2.7"
02/26/07 0.6"
03/03/14 1.8"
03/17/14 2.8"

Total snowfall for 2013/14 Season 67.6"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post Feb 8 2012, 08:02 AM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,933
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Cream Ridge, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2012, 06:29 AM) *
Well, even though we've not had much practice driving during daylight weekday hours, I think things will be OK. Some cars (like Mustangs for ex) go crazy in a drizzle so it depends on what you're driving as mostly just wet conditions should prevail, maybe some slushy or shoulder snow coatings to make turns tricky - but in the main, no worries I would imagine.

tongue.gif
Two winters ago we had a 1/2" of snow, my mustang couldn't even make it up my driveway!! Neighbor kid across street had to help with a little push to get her going, driveway is maybe on a 4 degree incline. laugh.gif


--------------------
Winter Totals:
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 1/2"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MP - Bucks Co PA
post Feb 8 2012, 08:04 AM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 631
Joined: 8-January 10
From: 19067
Member No.: 20,851





34 mostly cloudy in Hamilton NJ (Mercer County).
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Feb 8 2012, 08:11 AM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 33,124
Joined: 29-August 08
From: Albany, NY
Member No.: 15,491





It's a tough one... all of the models except for the NAM show at least 0.06-0.1" QPF in NYC, but the NAM still barely has a trace. Considering that it's the short range and this is a tight cutoff, I am siding closer to the NAM with this one, although I still expect to see at least some snow showers with no accumulation tonight.


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snofan
post Feb 8 2012, 08:28 AM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,805
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Jericho, VT 20 miles east of Burlington, VT
Member No.: 12,324





QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Feb 8 2012, 08:11 AM) *
It's a tough one... all of the models except for the NAM show at least 0.06-0.1" QPF in NYC, but the NAM still barely has a trace. Considering that it's the short range and this is a tight cutoff, I am siding closer to the NAM with this one, although I still expect to see at least some snow showers with no accumulation tonight.



There could be a more rapid coastal Development and this could enhance or increase snowfall from coastal NJ up to NYC and parts of SNE. Also, I think the NAM isn't handling this particular storm very well. The radar is more blossomed and juicer than what the NAM is showing. I really do think there will be snow amounts that surprise us all later this evening.


--------------------


Dave Jericho, VT
Eastern Chittenden County



WINTER SEASON 2012/2013 So Far: 105"

WINTER SEASON 2011/2012: 50"

WINTER SEASON 2010/2011: 252" Epic snowstorms!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Feb 8 2012, 08:59 AM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,123
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 8 2012, 08:02 AM) *
tongue.gif
Two winters ago we had a 1/2" of snow, my mustang couldn't even make it up my driveway!! Neighbor kid across street had to help with a little push to get her going, driveway is maybe on a 4 degree incline. laugh.gif


Freestyle music, Mustangs, Seems like we have same taste. smile.gif lol

Photo didnt have a date on it but it was mid 1990s.




--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.8"
2014-15: 0.8"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.8"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
geeter1
post Feb 8 2012, 09:02 AM
Post #13




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 111
Joined: 7-November 09
Member No.: 19,681





30' and partly sunny here in Orefield, PA. Looks like lots of virga headed our way, or is it
actually hitting the ground in the Harrisburg area? huh.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Feb 8 2012, 09:08 AM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,123
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





QUOTE(geeter1 @ Feb 8 2012, 09:02 AM) *
30' and partly sunny here in Orefield, PA. Looks like lots of virga headed our way, or is it
actually hitting the ground in the Harrisburg area? huh.gif


In Harrisburg, No. But SouthWest PA it is. http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPIT.html

Holding steady near 30 here.


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.8"
2014-15: 0.8"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.8"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
lisainpa
post Feb 8 2012, 09:22 AM
Post #15




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 22
Joined: 7-March 08
From: Altoona, PA
Member No.: 14,264





QUOTE(Keith3565 @ Feb 8 2012, 06:24 AM) *
I'm heading up to Blue knob ski resort this afternoon, I believe the closest town is calysburg, pa. We had planned on leaving home around 4pm and arriving around 9-10, just want to make sure this is only a minor event and that road conditions won't be to bad? Down here on the eastern shore 1" and 1 out of every 3 cars is off the road, haha.



I live about 20 minutes from Blue Knob. It's snowing here now...very light and just starting to accumulate on the grassy areas. It's right at 32 degrees at the moment. If you are headed here now, you should be fine. I hope you are staying the night! Have fun!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post Feb 8 2012, 09:30 AM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,933
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Cream Ridge, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 8 2012, 08:59 AM) *
Freestyle music, Mustangs, Seems like we have same taste. smile.gif lol

Photo didnt have a date on it but it was mid 1990s.

laugh.gif

Last year during one of the nice storms. cool.gif Too bad we haven't had one this year. sad.gif



--------------------
Winter Totals:
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 1/2"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Str8liner
post Feb 8 2012, 09:33 AM
Post #17




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 206
Joined: 11-February 08
From: Bedford Co. PA
Member No.: 13,618





Snow just started falling here.

Calling for 1-3 inches. Better then nothing I guess!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LoveNYCSnow
post Feb 8 2012, 09:35 AM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 25,949
Joined: 8-January 09
From: Queens County, NY
Member No.: 16,816





NAM still says basically nothing for NYC.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Fire/Rescue
post Feb 8 2012, 09:42 AM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,434
Joined: 4-January 10
From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore
Member No.: 20,753





As some are already aware the NWS for the Baltimore/DC area's has issued a WWA has been posted for my area along with several surrounding counties in North/North-Central and Western Maryland, along with locations in South West PA (Laurel Highlands) Northern VA and Eastern WV (Mountains)

Seems like this stretch of real-estate is going to be the "Jack Pot" zone....if you want to call it that, but hey with the track record of this Winter (or lack there of) ANY snowfall that even whitens the ground would be considered a bonus "Jack Pot Zone" wink.gif


QUOTE
***Winter Weather Advisory***

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
327 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSH HOUR. STEADY
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST UP TO 5 MPH.

Source

Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Stormlogger
post Feb 8 2012, 09:49 AM
Post #20




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 381
Joined: 17-December 09
From: Denver PA
Member No.: 20,330





QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Feb 8 2012, 09:42 AM) *
As some are already aware the NWS for the Baltimore/DC area's has issued a WWA has been posted for my area along with several surrounding counties in North/North-Central and Western Maryland, along with locations in South West PA (Laurel Highlands) Northern VA and Eastern WV (Mountains)

Seems like this stretch of real-estate is going to be the "Jack Pot" zone....if you want to call it that, but hey with the track record of this Winter (or lack there of) ANY snowfall that even whitens the ground would be considered a bonus "Jack Pot Zone" wink.gif
Source


I think temps are going to play a problem in the Balto. Area. Northwest suburbs should fair better definitely the temps are not great at all for accumulations. The later it holds off may help since temps will fall nicely later.

This post has been edited by Stormlogger: Feb 8 2012, 09:54 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

13 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 22nd December 2014 - 11:21 PM