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> Feb. 10th-12th GL LES, Reality: Short Range (0-4 Days Out) Forecasts
CMeyers
post Feb 9 2012, 01:39 PM
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I don't see a topic for this yet. Should make some of the Chicago folks happy. Wouldn't surprise me to see a solid 3-5" for the eastern side of the city and into NW IN. Could be more than that in some places. Limiting factors are the lift being far below the dgz and also wind flow that would keep heavier showers over the lake at various points. But, NE flow events aren't too common so this should be a welcome site to some. Unfortuntately with winds from the N or NE I won't get anything more than a few flurries here in western MI. At least it'll remind some people that it is winter...


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ChsChargers09 - Please be aware that there is a significant chance I was being sarcastic in the above comment. Thank you.
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WeatherMonger
post Feb 9 2012, 03:50 PM
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Regionrat
post Feb 9 2012, 04:10 PM
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My Accu Weather alarm is calling for 8 inches of snow. It'll be exciting to watch this unfold tomorrow afternoon/night.


--------------------
Early evening dusk
Snow softly covering trees
Winter grips the land
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ajaxskier9690
post Feb 9 2012, 05:35 PM
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Probably going to change, but these would be quite impressive totals for this side of the lake.



Source NWS LOT


--------------------
University of Iowa Geoscience 2012
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WeatherMonger
post Feb 9 2012, 09:45 PM
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WindyCity
post Feb 10 2012, 12:01 AM
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how long will LE will last in chicago?
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Regionrat
post Feb 10 2012, 05:24 AM
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Headlines rom LOT. LES Warning imby. As always wih LES amounts will vary.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?...ct+Snow+Warning
QUOTE
Lake Effect Snow Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
254 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012

...DANGEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM LIKELY TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST
INDIANA...

INZ001-101700-
/O.UPG.KLOT.LE.A.0001.120210T1800Z-120211T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KLOT.LE.W.0001.120210T2100Z-120211T1000Z/
LAKE IN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GARY
254 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM CST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM CST SATURDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* TIMING...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SOME ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AN INTENSE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO
PORTER COUNTY INDIANA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES IS LIKELY
WHERE THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OCCURS...WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF UP TO 18 INCHES POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE
MOST INTENSE SNOW BAND LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS COULD EXCEED 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR.
DUE TO THE LOCALIZED
NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS CAN AND OFTEN DO VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER VERY SHORT DISTANCES AND MANY AREAS IN LAKE
COUNTY MAY END UP WITH LESS THAN 6 INCHES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.

* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY MAKE TRAVEL
HAZARDOUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THE EVENING TRAVEL WILL
LIKELY BECOME EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IF NOT NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE SNOW BAND DUE THE COMBINATION OF NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND EXTREMELY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. STRONG NORTH
WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH AT TIMES WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.



--------------------
Early evening dusk
Snow softly covering trees
Winter grips the land
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Ilovelakeeffect
post Feb 10 2012, 06:35 AM
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What is the difference with the LES near Indiana versus Ohio. CLE has us down for 4-8", but none of this 18" stuff. What gives?


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Hey Accuweather! Please send us our very own Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Midwest blogger. Heck, with the Lake Effect alone, our winters can be more interesting than many other locations around the country not to mention the synoptic snowfalls.

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Regionrat
post Feb 10 2012, 07:37 AM
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QUOTE(Ilovelakeeffect @ Feb 10 2012, 07:35 AM) *
What is the difference with the LES near Indiana versus Ohio. CLE has us down for 4-8", but none of this 18" stuff. What gives?

Long fetch for the counties on the southern shore of Lake Michigan. Duration will be key.


--------------------
Early evening dusk
Snow softly covering trees
Winter grips the land
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Regionrat
post Feb 10 2012, 08:36 AM
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The LOT media briefing mentions the possibility of THUNDERSNOW!!!!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=webbriefing


--------------------
Early evening dusk
Snow softly covering trees
Winter grips the land
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Illinois blizzar...
post Feb 10 2012, 08:49 AM
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WRF


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2013:
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Storm Warnings: 0

9.20" on 12/14/13 first winter storm

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Regionrat
post Feb 10 2012, 12:07 PM
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Ever so slight shift to the west? These distances are really small, just a couple of miles.

QUOTE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1023 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...
1005 AM CST

GOING FORECAST FOR THE SNOW AMOUNTS...IMPACTS...AND HEADLINES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CHICAGOLAND AREA TO ADD PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.

UPSTREAM WAVE ON SATELLITE CHANNELS IS REALLY LOOKING
IMPRESSIVE...WITH RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING AN ENHANCED AREA ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT LINING UP WELL WITH LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AND LAPSE RATES. THE NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...AND MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS
HAVE INDICATED ONE QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY /EVEN BRIEFLY A ZERO AT
KOSH/. MULTIPLE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAVE A GOOD INITIALIZATION ON
THIS AND THE FORCING...BRINGING THE AREA SOUTHWARD NEARLY INTACT
THROUGH THE HEART OF CHICAGO THIS AFTERNOON...NAMELY BETWEEN 2 AND
5 PM. ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN SEEN AHEAD OF THIS IN LAKE AND MCHENRY
COUNTIES...LIKELY ROOTED HIGHER THAN THE FORCING SEEN UPSTREAM IN
WI. SIMILAR PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE
WAVE SHIFTS SOUTH...SO HAVE BROUGHT HIGHER POPS SOUTH QUICKER.
HAVE BASICALLY GONE NEAR 100 POPS FOR CHICAGO WHERE IT LOOKS
DEFINITE TO SNOW...AND ADDED MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW COINCIDENT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EARLY ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS
THAT THE NAM HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY WEST AND THE HRRR HAS
INITIAL SETUP INTO SOUTHEAST COOK COUNTY AS WELL. WILL LOOK AT
THIS FURTHER TO SEE IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST COOK NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS AT ALL. THE MORE RESIDUAL TIME STILL LOOKS TO
BE IN EASTERN LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1


--------------------
Early evening dusk
Snow softly covering trees
Winter grips the land
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albanyweather
post Feb 12 2012, 11:30 PM
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Its dusting again. Come on 15 DBZ! dry.gif


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Winter Advisories: 5
Winter Watch: 5
Winter Warning: 4
Ice Storm Warning: 0
Blizzard Warning: 0


Snowfall 2013-2014: 79"
Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7"
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