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> Feb. 13-15 SE Storm, Possibility:Short Range [0-4 Days Out]
Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 9 2012, 02:23 PM
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12z Euro shows Sn in N/MS,N/AL,N/GA, WEST parts of NC/SC,all of Tn. rolleyes.gif


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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 9 2012, 02:29 PM
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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591

12Z FEB09
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK


TUE 06Z 14-FEB -0.2 -0.5 1017 84 99 0.15 553 540
TUE 12Z 14-FEB 0.5 -0.2 1013 96 73 0.39 549 539
TUE 18Z 14-FEB 2.8 -0.1 1014 90 53 0.01 553 541


This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Feb 9 2012, 02:30 PM


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blizzardlover79
post Feb 9 2012, 03:35 PM
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I'm so happy for everyone that is getting snow. I Live in Columbus,ga and all I'm getting is 75 degree weather. I go to Virginia next Wed. Hopefully I'll get to at least see a flake lol. but I'm not giving up this winter. I was 13 when we had the blizzard of 93 and I remember waking up surprised I had 12 inches in my back yard and was wearing shorts the day before.
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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 10 2012, 07:32 AM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
524 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012


LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MAY GET QUITE MESSY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...BUT MODELS SHOW IT
BECOMING DIFFUSE MONDAY NIGHT AND HARDLY DISTINGUISHABLE.
HOWEVER...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND CONTINUE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED MOISTURE PUSHING
OVER THE AREA DURING THE SAME TIME. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BRING
WARMER/MORE MOIST SURFACE AIR NORTHWARD DUE TO THE LIGHT WIND
REGIME BROUGHT ON BY THE LACK OF A DECENT SURFACE LOW. THUS...THE
COLD AIR SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT WITH WINTRY
PRECIP A HIGH POSSIBILITY.

LOOKING INTO A BIT MORE OF THE SPECIFICS SHOW AGAIN VERY DRY AIR
LINGERING AT THE SURFACE INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DEW
POINTS SLOWLY RECOVERING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACE SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADS OVERHEAD...PRECIP SHOULD
BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP WILL ENCOUNTER VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE
WHICH SHOULD INDUCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND CAUSE THE BL TEMPS TO
FALL TO THE WET BULB TEMP OF ABOUT 0C BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THE LACK OF WELL ABOVE FREEZING AIR IN THE PROFILE
ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER NORTHERN
MS...POINT TO ALL SNOW AND SOME SLEET WITH THE INITIAL PRECIP
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WAA WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY JUST
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION
FROM SNOW...TO SLEET...POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IF SURFACE TEMPS CAN
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...AND THEN LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE BEGINS TO HEAD EAST. GIVEN THAT
THERE APPEARS TO BE HEALTHY QPF...THIS COULD BE A WINTER STORM
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. TOO EARLY FOR EXACT ACCUMS OF SNOW AND
ICE...BUT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE ATTAINABLE NORTH WITH PERHAPS A
BIT OF ICE...A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ALONG I-40 WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF ICE...AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MS
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN.

This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Feb 10 2012, 07:35 AM


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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 10 2012, 07:38 AM
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PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
351 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2012

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 14 2012 - 12Z FRI FEB 17 2012


USED THE 00Z/10 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR
DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECMWF IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED WITH THE
12Z/09 ECENS MEAN THROUGH DAY 6...THEN DIVERGES DAY 7 OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WHERE THE SPLIT FLOW REUNITES. IT IS THE
SPLIT THAT IS ONCE AGAIN WREAKING HAVOC WITH THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SEPARATE STREAMS
AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTIONS SEEMINGLY BOUNDLESS. CHOSE THE
GREATER SEPARATION INDICATED BY THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF DAY 7 ON
PRINCIPLE ALONE...NOT BECAUSE OF ITS LIKELIHOOD OF VERIFYING. THE
ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN A STRONG PERFORMER AT THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR
SOME TIME NOW...AND FACED WITH A DIFFERENT SOLUTION FROM EVERY
PIECE OF 00Z/10 GUIDANCE...ITS RELIABILITY WAS APPEALING. IN
GENERAL...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


CISCO


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Poppyh
post Feb 10 2012, 01:24 PM
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Looks as tho we may see a flake or 3 here in Charlotte on Monday nite, we shall see I really didn't think we would see anything at all this winter
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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 10 2012, 01:36 PM
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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 11 2012, 05:42 PM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
300 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...MID TN WAS EXPERIENCING ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS OF
THIS RELATIVELY MILD WINTER. TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN AREAS HAD
HIT 30+ THANKS TO SUNSHINE...BUT EASTERN AREAS REMAINED IN THE 20S
WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WERE DROPPING WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE TEENS AREA WIDE. THE
AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWED THE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST...AND A 1045 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR LINCOLN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...THE EASTERN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE MS VALLEY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES CLOSER TO THE MID STATE...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE. WE EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY BUT STILL QUITE CHILLY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS MUCH OF A FACTOR ON SUNDAY...STAYING
MOSTLY IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE OVER TN SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CLEAR...CALM AND FRIGID NIGHT. IN SPITE OF
SOME LATE NIGHT HIGH CLOUDS...TEMPERATURE WILL PLUMMET INTO THE
TEENS. SOME SINGLE DIGITS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE MOST
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND PARTS OF THE PLATEAU.

ON MONDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST. CLOUDS WILL
BE INCREASING AS A WEATHER SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY SINCE WE WILL HAVE A COLD START
FOLLOWED BY QUICKLY THICKENING CLOUDS. WE WILL GO A LITTLE COLDER
THAN GUIDANCE AND INDICATE LOWER 40S MOST LOCATIONS.

WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE WINTER WX POTENTIAL WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. IT APPEARS
MOST OF MONDAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH THE COLD AND DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION
COULD BEGIN OVER OUR FAR WEST COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A FAIRLY
FAST MOVING AND SLIGHTLY WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...AND IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
MID TN WILL BE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE FOR PRECIP TYPE.
GENERALLY...LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE EVENING...WITH A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY RAIN OCCURRING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. MANY UNCERTAINTIES PERSIST. AT THIS TIME...WE DO
NOT THINK THIS WILL BE A HUGE ACCUMULATION EVENT...BUT IT COULD BE
A MESSY SITUATION FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I 40...AND JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING NORTH. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL.

SOME INTERESTING THINGS NOTED...THE LATEST NAM MODEL IS COLDER
THAN OTHERS...INDICATING A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
BEFORE A LATE NIGHT TRANSITION TOWARD LIQUID. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A
GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. ALSO...A DEVELOPING WARM NOSE
WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (NEAR -25 DEG C 500 MB) WILL CREATE STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TOTAL TOTALS INDICES
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION...PERHAPS SOME LOCALLY
ENHANCED BURSTS OF SNOW OR SLEET WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS
INTERESTING...AND MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.



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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 11 2012, 06:26 PM
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The heaviest snow (blue shading) on Monday will be in northern Arkansas. For now, two to four inch accumulations are in the forecast north of Clarksville and Newport, with one to two inches as far south as Mena, Little Rock and Brinkley. Cold air will become more shallow as the day progresses, with melting of snow aloft and refreezing toward the ground. The result will be freezing rain/icing (dashed pink lines) in about the southwest half of the state. Less than a tenth of an inch of ice is expected in the southern counties, and that will occur in the morning before precipitation changes to rain. More of an icing problem (a tenth to two tenths of an inch) could occur from west central into central Arkansas. In these areas, subfreezing temperatures will be more prolonged.


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AmyRenee
post Feb 11 2012, 07:49 PM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Feb 11 2012, 06:26 PM) *

The heaviest snow (blue shading) on Monday will be in northern Arkansas. For now, two to four inch accumulations are in the forecast north of Clarksville and Newport, with one to two inches as far south as Mena, Little Rock and Brinkley. Cold air will become more shallow as the day progresses, with melting of snow aloft and refreezing toward the ground. The result will be freezing rain/icing (dashed pink lines) in about the southwest half of the state. Less than a tenth of an inch of ice is expected in the southern counties, and that will occur in the morning before precipitation changes to rain. More of an icing problem (a tenth to two tenths of an inch) could occur from west central into central Arkansas. In these areas, subfreezing temperatures will be more prolonged.



Do you think this will make it's way into the north western piedmont of NC?
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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 11 2012, 10:26 PM
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heights AND TEMPS definite fell in the 500's from the 0z to 12z Nam runs,should be l/sn AND or zr into 1-20 AL HR54

This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Feb 11 2012, 10:30 PM


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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 11 2012, 10:41 PM
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QUOTE(AmyRenee @ Feb 11 2012, 06:49 PM) *
Do you think this will make it's way into the north western piedmont of NC?


To hard to tell right now,but the system seems to really weaken over your area.Should know more 24 hrs from now


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cg2916
post Feb 11 2012, 11:12 PM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Feb 11 2012, 10:41 PM) *
To hard to tell right now,but the system seems to really weaken over your area.Should know more 24 hrs from now


What about piedmont SC?

Also, does anyone know where to get WSI RPM runs?

This post has been edited by cg2916: Feb 11 2012, 11:16 PM
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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 12 2012, 04:39 PM
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
256 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT WILL BE THE LAST COLD NIGHT FOR A WHILE WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASING BY TOMORROW MORNING AND LOWS DIPPING IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO AROUND 20 DEGREES.

THE REAL STORY OF THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES AND ITS MOVEMENT EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL INVOKE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING PRECIP EASTWARD INTO NW AL LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED...THE OUTCOME OF THIS EVENT WILL
HEAVILY DEPEND ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SOUNDING ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY
COLUMN THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY...THE COLUMN ALOFT
BECOMES SATURATED AND IS WELL BELOW 0C. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(18-00Z)...SATURATION CONTINUES DOWNWARD TO ROUGHLY 900MB. IT IS
AROUND 00Z THAT MODELS INDICATE THAT PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
NW AL. ACCORDING TO GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES AT
THE SFC WILL STILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
HOWEVER...WITH MOST OF THE COLUMN SATURATED AND BELOW FREEZING...WB
COOLING WILL OCCUR AND ALLOW THE EVENT TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW AROUND
SUNSET TOMORROW EVENING. (CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MODELS ARE NOT
ACCOUNTING FOR THE WB COOLING EFFECT IN THE OUTPUT OF MOS
GUIDANCE/PRECIP TYPE). THE PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET
MIX BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR NW AND N CENTRAL AL...WITH STILL ALL SNOW
EXPECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT IN NE AL/SRN MIDDLE TN.

BETWEEN 09-12Z TUESDAY MORNING...THE PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TO
ALL RAIN IN NW AL...WITH SLEET (POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING
RAIN) IN NE AL/SRN MIDDLE TN. AS THE WARM NOSE ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE WARMER THAN THOSE
LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY
RESIDUAL COLD AIR TO POOL IN THESE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN...THE RAIN MAY FREEZE ON
CONTACT WHEN IT FALLS TO THE SFC IN THESE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS.
BETWEEN 12-15Z...ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WILL
TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S.

THE BIG QUESTION WITH THIS EVENT REVOLVES AROUND THE ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...AND IF SO...HOW MUCH? WITH THE CURRENT MODEL DATA...FEEL
THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE AND WOULD LIKELY BE
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
WARM FASTER...MORE RAIN (INSTEAD OF FROZEN PRECIP) WOULD
FALL...LESSENING THE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. IT IS FOR THIS REASON THAT
I DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...BUT ONE MAY BE WARRANTED IF NEW MODEL DATA COMES IN
OVERNIGHT AND SUGGESTS MORE ACCUMULATIONS THAN THE CURRENT RUNS OF
THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING.


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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 12 2012, 04:47 PM
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
332 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

GAZ022>025-027-031>039-041>062-066>076-131200-
FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-
GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-HARALSON-CARROLL-
DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-
TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-
JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-
MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-
332 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

...A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WHICH HAS AFFECTED THE AREA THE LAST TWO DAYS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
MOISTURE TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY EVENING
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TO RESULT IN A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD
INITIALLY WHEN SOME SLEET OR SNOW COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN. FROM
CARROLTON TO COMMERCE AND POINTS NORTHWARD...A DUSTING OR LESS OF
SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF
THIS LINE. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND TIMING ISSUES
WITH RESPECT TO THE PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...EVERYONE IS ENCOURAGED
TO CHECK FREQUENTLY FOR FORECAST UPDATES ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE.


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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 12 2012, 04:51 PM
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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 13 2012, 08:16 AM
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
344 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEARING DOWN ON THE MIDSOUTH...

.INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE MIDSOUTH THIS
MORNING WITH VERY DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE. AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION
WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE...GRADUALLY OVERCOMING THE
DRY AIR. AS IT DOES SO...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND SUPPORT SNOW
AND SLEET BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARMER MID LEVEL AIR WILL THEN BEGIN TO WORK NORTH THIS EVENING
WITH A TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY 9 OR 10 PM.

MSZ001>005-007-008-TNZ052>055-088>092-132200-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WW.Y.0001.120213T2200Z-120214T0300Z/
DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TIPPAH-ALCORN-TUNICA-TATE-MADISON-
CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-SHELBY-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTHAVEN...OLIVE BRANCH...CORINTH...
TUNICA...JACKSON...LEXINGTON...BARTLETT...GERMANTO
N...
COLLIERVILLE...MEMPHIS...MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE..
BOLIVAR...
SAVANNAH
344 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4
PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING.

* SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH.


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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 13 2012, 08:32 AM
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
420 AM EST MON FEB 13 2012

...LIGHT WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...

.A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TONIGHT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BEFORE DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

COLDER AIR IN THE VALLEYS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE INTO
CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES OF NORTH CAROLINA...MAY CAUSE A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR. THE WINTRY MIX SHOULD
ONLY LAST INTO MID MORNING TUESDAY...THEN ANY WINTRY MIX SHOULD
TRANSITION TO ALL LIGHT RAIN...WITH RAIN LIKELY TO END BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

NCZ060-061-TNZ087-101-102-132030-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0006.120214T0700Z-120214T1500Z/
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SOUTHEAST MONROE-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...COKER CREEK...
BENTON...DUCKTOWN
420 AM EST MON FEB 13 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY...FOR EASTERN MONROE AND
POLK COUNTIES INTO CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* EVENT...WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS UP TO 1/10 OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
LASTING THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY THEN CHANGE TO RAIN BY MID
MORNING.


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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 13 2012, 12:10 PM
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1107 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012

...MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SLEET...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ALZ001>005-140045-
/O.NEW.KHUN.WW.Y.0001.120213T2200Z-120214T0600Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS
1107 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...LIGHT SLEET SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 4
AND 6 PM...WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SLEET POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL VARY...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD RECEIVE A HALF INCH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT WITH COLD GROUND TEMPERATURES...ANY ACCUMULATION OF
SLEET MAY PRODUCE SLICK CONDITIONS.


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hckyplayer8
post Feb 13 2012, 03:58 PM
Post #20




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Here is to this threads chance at a few sleet bb's. Maybe a prayer for some flakes.

Mid level temps have already warmed well above freezing ahead of the rather flat upper level troff.

As the troff swings through there is potential there for temps to go isothermal in portions of Northern GA, SE TN, N AL, W NC and W SC.

Any elevation that you can gain will be critical in your chances of seeing frozen precip.


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The views and opinions expressed in my posts are of my own and do not reflect the views of the USAF.
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