Feb 18-20 SE Winter Storm, Possibility:Medium Range [4-7 Days Out Forecast] Options

[31B militaryPoli...]

Here we go again...Models hinting at another potential winter storm this up coming weekend. Can we finally cash in this time?

First I'll start off things with this afternoon's 12Z euro run. The Euro showed a phased Gulf low tracking across the Norther Gulf to SAV and then out to sea. Temps were marginal, but no need to focus on that this far out since the SLP placement and temps will change from run to run. Just note this is a classic Miller A track for someone in the region to cash in. Especially if we get a deepening low pressure system rounding the corner of N Florida and up the coast.



The 12Z *GFS* shears out the southern stream energy, and we have a weak Low pressure system moving across the Gulf and crossing the FL peninsula.

The 12Z CMC has a better look than the GFS and very close to phasing like the *EURO*. Temps are colder as well with the 0 degree 850MB line running along to just slight north of I-20 from KJAN-KATL. SLP south of Mobile, AL at 132 with a very moist 700MB field. The SLP turns the corner and continues to track off the SC coast and off to sea.

12Z Ukmet is the furthest NW with SLP tracking through Central AL and cuts inland with a 996MB low off the coast of VA.

12Z Ensembles all support the Miller A idea, temps marginal but again that will change as we get closer.

This post has been edited by 31B militaryPolice: Feb 13 2012, 06:29 PM

[31B militaryPoli...]

18Z GFS continues to shear the southern energy with a weak SLP. It's ensembles mean has a track from south of LA through southern GA into SC.

[hckyplayer8]

It is an interesting setup.

Definitely the most interesting one all winter for this thread.

[grace]

The 18z GFS ensembles were very impressive in bringing the low further NW which had many various outcomes. If anything the ensembles are indicating that there could be a major storm somewhere in the SE.

[jdrenken]

After seeing the 12Z GFS...I can see why they want multiple flights...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EST MON 13 FEBRUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-075

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. P-56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 15/0000Z
B. AFXXX 18WSC TRACK 56
C. 14/1845Z
D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 15/0600Z

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA49
A. P-56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 15/1200Z
B. NOAA9 19WSC TRACK56
C. 15/0730Z
D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 15/1800Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. P-56/ DROP 9/ 16/0000Z
B. P-56/ DROP 9/ 16/1200Z
JWP

[disco_lemonade]

Well hopefully we get some good info out of them.

[31B militaryPoli...]

I'll take the 0z GFS at day 5 and run. Classic Miller A storm track with 1030 MB high near GL and 50/50 low in place.

[hckyplayer8]

I'll take the 0z GFS at day 5 and run. Classic Miller A storm track with 1030 MB high near GL and 50/50 low in place.

It's not exactly classic...but it would work.

The storm is pure Southern stream energy.

Very moist but will lack the interaction with colder/drier air (the Northern branch) that would drive the development of a major system.

So what you get is this very weak but moist system edging around the outer shell of the cold air and a real thin strip of snow potential.

With the 50/50 being so large and displaced South, it gives you guys an opportunity to cash in on the brief period of split flow.

Normally a setup like this presents itself at a much farther North latitude.

This post has been edited by hckyplayer8: Feb 14 2012, 12:24 AM

[Removed_Member_weathertree4u_*]

S, as usual, the Nashville NWS is going conservative....

000
FXUS64 KOHX 140911
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
311 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
GENERATING MOSTLY RAIN WITH A FEW PATCHES OF SLEET...MAINLY IN THE
ERN COUNTIES. A CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES THIS MORNING AND THEN
DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON.

DRY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS. SLY FLOW AT THE SFC TURNS BRIEFLY TO WLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK TO SELY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS LATE WED AND INTO
THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATE WED NGT. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN ON
WED AFTN WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WRN HALF.

AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES 0-3 KM SHEAR AND MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A NIGHTTIME
PERIOD...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND B+ ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF ONLY ISOLATED TSTMS GIVEN
THE LACK OF FAVORABLE FACTORS IN THIS PERIOD. THE FRONT PASSES
THE AREA EARLY THU MORNING WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA FOR THU AFTN AND THU NGT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND INVOLVES A STRONG SFC LOW ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND A COOL HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OVER THE
MIDWEST. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE OF CONCERN IN WINTER BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS NOT COLD ENOUGH WITH 850MB
TEMPS JUST BARELY REACHING INTO THE FREEZING AREA SAT NGT AND SFC
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING. HOWEVER...THIS
SITUATION BEARS WATCHING SHOULD THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHEN
AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA.

[jdrenken]

Recon flights going as scheduled.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EST MON 13 FEBRUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-075

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. P-56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 15/0000Z
B. AFXXX 18WSC TRACK 56
C. 14/1845Z
D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 15/0600Z

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA49
A. P-56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 15/1200Z
B. NOAA9 19WSC TRACK56
C. 15/0730Z
D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 15/1800Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. P-56/ DROP 9/ 16/0000Z
B. P-56/ DROP 9/ 16/1200Z
JWP

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EST TUE 14 FEBRUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-077 CORRECTION

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. P-56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 16/0000Z
B. AFXXX 20WSC TRACK56
C. 15/1845Z
D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 16/0600Z

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA49
A. P-55/ DROP 9 (45.0N 157.0W)/ 16/1200Z
B. NOAA9 21WSC TRACK55
C. 16/0730Z
D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 16/1800Z

REMARK: CORRECTED FOR MISSION IDS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

[31B militaryPoli...]

Took a look at CIPS Cold-Season Analogs. Some famous analogs shown: 3/24/1983, 2/12/2010, 1/30/2010, 1/24-25/2000.

hour 96
http://www.eas.slu.e...SNOW&sort=FINAL

hour 120
http://www.eas.slu.e...SNOW&sort=FINAL

[swilliams1005]

Links not working

[31B militaryPoli...]

Links not working

Let's try again

96

120

[disco_lemonade]

I think this storm "potential" is a bit of a balancing act, especially since the models show it forming shortly after this 16-18 storm, however based on such model consistency, I would be pretty surprised if some sort of low doesnt form and move through the south, maybe it will move up the coast, and maybe it will go OTS, we will cross that bridge when the NE comes to it, but the kicker is where will the cold air be, while I think that this is the best chance that areas south of VA will have this winter for seeing any respectable snow, I have to worry whether it will be just a cold rain.... if anything

[31B militaryPoli...]

0Z NAM is slower and keeps our system closed off at 500MB through run. Also colder out ahead of the system...FWIW.

[swilliams1005]

Let's try again

96

120

Interesting!!

[disco_lemonade]

0Z NAM is slower and keeps our system closed off at 500MB through run. Also colder out ahead of the system...FWIW.

Yea the latest NAM run gives me some optimism, im interested in seeing what tale the 0z gfs will tell.

[hckyplayer8]

Yikes. GFS i s a torch.

Totally different H5 setup.

Gone is the mega 50/50 that suppresses the storm track.

Insert a energetic Northern branch shortwave that digs down into the lower 48 from out of the GL's.

The result is a totally different flow for this thread.

As always, you can fine tune some things to tilt the odds in your favor....but the chances of getting the phasing to happen far enough for this thread.....not very good....if this current setup would verify.

[31B militaryPoli...]

Yea not a good look for many per the GFS. CMC looks to hold serve still has strong 50/50 low in place and a solid 1030MB high in place over the GL. UKIE is also a completely different H5 look than the GFS. Right now GFS is the outlier, we will see what ensembles and Euro shows tonight.

[disco_lemonade]

Yikes. GFS i s a torch.

Totally different H5 setup.

Gone is the mega 50/50 that suppresses the storm track.

Insert a energetic Northern branch shortwave that digs down into the lower 48 from out of the GL's.

The result is a totally different flow for this thread.

As always, you can fine tune some things to tilt the odds in your favor....but the chances of getting the phasing to happen far enough for this thread.....not very good....if this current setup would verify.

Yea, but honestly, at this point I wouldn't put to much weight on temps 100 or so hours out on a gfs run.