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> Winter 2012-13 Canada, Topic Closed; Winter in Progress
Removed_Member_weathertree4u_*
post Mar 13 2012, 08:56 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 13 2012, 05:41 AM) *
Many of the record highs broken over the past couple of days in ON were set in 1977 (Toronto & Ottawa on Sunday) and 1995 (St Catherines & Collingwood on Monday). Just for anecdotal fun, here's a look at March from those months and the winters following them.

March 1977:

[attachment=159868:mar1977.png]

March 1995:

[attachment=159869:mar1995.png]

The notorious December-February 1977-78 (weak El Nino, some expectations of that state this winter perhaps):

[attachment=159870:winter1978.png]

December-February 1995-96 (weak La Nina):

[attachment=159871:winter1996.png]


Interesting, but, we all know where the use of analogues got us this Season; I would love to have a season like the late 1970's, bring back memories of childhood!
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bigmt
post Mar 13 2012, 11:33 AM
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QUOTE(weathertree4u @ Mar 13 2012, 09:56 AM) *
Interesting, but, we all know where the use of analogues got us this Season; I would love to have a season like the late 1970's, bring back memories of childhood!


Yes it's very true that analogs can be misleading. It's just like a tool in your belt; one can't build much with just a single tool. This far removed from next winter there isn't a whole lot of reasonably reliable options. Seasonal forecasts, analogs, ENSO state, etc are what we can look to to give some rough insight and their skill levels are limited.
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bigmt
post Mar 26 2012, 04:39 PM
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Quick update on ENSO possibilities which will undoubtedly have some impact on next winter. The CPC offers a weekly update every Monday where these images are available alongside more detailed info.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec.../MJO/enso.shtml

Neutral conditions will prevail through the late spring and summer until there appears to be near-equal chances for a neutral or warm episode thereafter.

Attached File  ensoprob.jpg ( 157.79K ) Number of downloads: 1


Model plumes also seem clustered around a weak El Nino for now.

Attached File  ensoplumes.jpg ( 146.61K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  cfsv2plumes.jpg ( 92.88K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Apr 9 2012, 10:07 AM
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Some highlights from today's ENSO update. Continuation of the mounting evidence for El Nino to develop through this year.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec.../MJO/enso.shtml

Attached File  enso1.jpg ( 163.07K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  enso2.jpg ( 129.64K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  enso3.jpg ( 130.55K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hopefully it isn't as strong as the CFS v2 is predicting because a moderate Nino won't be helpful for winter weather enthusiasts.
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an uncanny otter
post Apr 9 2012, 05:20 PM
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Yeah, the chances of La Nina making a reappearance for 2012-13 seem less and less likely. I would definitely place my bets on an El Nino but a more neutral phase can't be ruled out. From my experience, neutral winters are usually the most consistent in terms of average snowfall and temps, so its less of a gamble as to what kind of winter weather we'll get. It's much harder to get above average snow with an El Nino but it's certainly not a definite sign of a horrible winter.
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dsichewski
post Apr 9 2012, 08:22 PM
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after this past winter.....bascially everything is a *bleep* shoot in one way or another. lol
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blizzardOf96
post May 5 2012, 06:29 AM
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The key here is for the warmth in the pacific to shift West. Right now it is centred off the south american coast, which usually leads to warmer weather in North America. Also the el nino should be followed by 2 previous ninas stronger than itself, in a cold PDO which we have right now. The warm winter of 1997-98 had the core of the warm water east and was preceded by a weak la nina.
Attached File  anomnight_1_3_1998.gif ( 47.41K ) Number of downloads: 1


The Harsh El Nino's of 2009-10 and 2002-03 had the core of the warm water in nino 3.4 not 1 and 2 and were proceeded by stronger la nina's, leading to harsh winters.

Attached File  anomnight_2_3_2003.gif ( 51.12K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  anomnight_1_4_2010.gif ( 45.96K ) Number of downloads: 0


Forecasts looking good for cold and shift of warmest water west towards the start of winter:

Attached File  nino12Mon.gif ( 23.92K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  nino34Sea_9_.gif ( 24.77K ) Number of downloads: 0


My Analogs:
Attached File  cd99.234.175.24.125.5.2.51.prcp.png ( 132.04K ) Number of downloads: 1


The JAMSTEC, FWIW, did nail last winter when many other models differed and has this winter cold. This winter looks good so far for winter lovers but will have to be monitored for any other changes and taken with a grain of salt. tongue.gif






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bigmt
post May 7 2012, 10:09 AM
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A look at your two analog choices in terms of surface temps for the entirety of North America.

2002-03:

Attached File  209.87.238.193.127.8.53.51.png ( 13.01K ) Number of downloads: 0


2009-10:

Attached File  209.87.238.193.127.8.54.7.png ( 13.09K ) Number of downloads: 0


I'd have no problem with a winter akin to 02-03 but personally I didn't think much of 09-10. Of course it may have been a different story without the highly anomalous NAO blocking pattern. It's difficult to say if El Nino can muster the kind of strength it reached in 09-10 as well. SOI values have rebounded to positive again recently which isn't consistent with a rapidly developing moderate-to-strong Nino event.

Speaking of ENSO, here's a few images from today's update from the CPC site.

Attached File  enso1.jpg ( 154.75K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  enso2.jpg ( 187.01K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  enso3.jpg ( 140.84K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  enso4.jpg ( 128.93K ) Number of downloads: 0


There won't be much more information from the CFS v1 as it is scheduled to be discontinued this year.
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stuffradio
post May 7 2012, 04:04 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ May 7 2012, 08:09 AM) *
A look at your two analog choices in terms of surface temps for the entirety of North America.

2002-03:

Attached File  209.87.238.193.127.8.53.51.png ( 13.01K ) Number of downloads: 0


2009-10:

Attached File  209.87.238.193.127.8.54.7.png ( 13.09K ) Number of downloads: 0


I'd have no problem with a winter akin to 02-03 but personally I didn't think much of 09-10. Of course it may have been a different story without the highly anomalous NAO blocking pattern. It's difficult to say if El Nino can muster the kind of strength it reached in 09-10 as well. SOI values have rebounded to positive again recently which isn't consistent with a rapidly developing moderate-to-strong Nino event.

Speaking of ENSO, here's a few images from today's update from the CPC site.

Attached File  enso1.jpg ( 154.75K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  enso2.jpg ( 187.01K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  enso3.jpg ( 140.84K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  enso4.jpg ( 128.93K ) Number of downloads: 0


There won't be much more information from the CFS v1 as it is scheduled to be discontinued this year.

Looks like a weak to moderate niņo?
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bigmt
post May 7 2012, 05:03 PM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ May 7 2012, 05:04 PM) *
Looks like a weak to moderate niņo?


Yeah, that seems to be the consensus. The CFSv2 approaches strong Nino status through the fall months but it's had some outlandish ideas before (for a while it wanted to develop a raging La Nina this past winter but it never materialized to that degree). It isn't entirely out of the question for a moderate or borderline strong El Nino to unfold; we'll have to closely watch what happens in the Pacific over the next few months to see how things shape up.

Right now I'd say a weak El Nino develops, leading to a mild and dry west and a colder east (particularly around the Great Lakes) for the winter much like blizzardof96's 2002-03 choice shows. If it punches through to moderate status then a significantly warmer outcome for the central part of the country becomes likely.

I also wanted to illustrate the SOI values I was talking about earlier for comparison. SOI stands for 'Southern Oscillation Index' and deals with the atmospheric aspects of ENSO rather than the sea surface temperatures, although of course they are interrelated. Positive values are associated with La Nina and negative values with El Nino.

SOI graph for 2002 where a weak El Nino developed:

Attached File  2002soi.jpg ( 151.29K ) Number of downloads: 0


2009 where a moderate-strong El Nino developed:

Attached File  2009soi.jpg ( 156.46K ) Number of downloads: 0


2012 to this point:

Attached File  2012soi.jpg ( 141.8K ) Number of downloads: 0


The most recent reading from today is at +4.23 and as we move through the summer this can be an indicator to watch and see what ENSO state and eventual strength could occur for the upcoming winter.
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blizzardOf96
post May 7 2012, 08:08 PM
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On the topic of the SOI, although it had an impressive drop early it has levelled off recently and is less negative. Its been a bit positive in may and with a very weak MJO signal it will probably continue to level off. I think this winter probably won't be anything more then a weak el nino with warm water slowly shifting westward. We are in a cold PDO with weaker El Nino's. I like 1951-52 as an analog with cold PDO, declining warm AMO and La Nina to El Nino. I like 1972-73 although the AMO was cold and the PDO was already beginning to warm so the El Nino was stronger east near the South American coast but this year is fairly close.
1952:
Attached File  99.234.175.24.127.17.49.41.png ( 14.62K ) Number of downloads: 0


1972:
Attached File  99.234.175.24.127.17.47.44.png ( 14.97K ) Number of downloads: 0


SST:
Attached File  99.234.175.24.127.18.30.35.png ( 14.79K ) Number of downloads: 0


1965 has a cold PDO Neutral AMO, nina to nino. I think 76-77 is similar as well el nino coming off of a triple nina, although not a double like this year but was very harsh with cold PDO.

Blend of 51-52,65-66,72-73,76-77,02-03,09-10.
Attached File  99.234.175.24.127.18.53.40.png ( 15.62K ) Number of downloads: 0


Just some early thoughts...


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blizzardOf96
post May 8 2012, 07:07 AM
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The MEI seems most similar to 1972 and 1951 preceding the winters of 72-73 and 51-52.
Attached File  Screen_shot_2012_05_07_at_6_30_50_PM.png ( 33.22K ) Number of downloads: 0


We should be watching solar activity because if it stays quiet it could strengthen the El Nino.

This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: May 8 2012, 07:08 AM


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bigmt
post May 8 2012, 02:33 PM
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Great posts, love to read in-depth analysis smile.gif

The subject of the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and it's eventual switch to it's cold phase is really interesting to me. The timing is somewhat ethereal but it is generally believed to function on a 70-year full cycle, with 30-35 years in each phase. If we entered the warm phase around 1995 then we could potentially have another 15 years or so until the next cool phase commences but this is far from certain. Each year also brings it's own pitfalls with spikes and dips within the overall cycle occurring regularly.

Whenever the next flip happens, it will likely have wide-ranging effects in terms of temperature and precipitation for the eastern half of the country. The relationship between the AMO and the NAO/AO has drastic consequences in terms of Eastern Canada (and the USA as well), moreso even than the ENSO state which we've been discussing at length here. Unfortunately the ability to predict the Atlantic oscillations isn't as apparent as ENSO, not that any are foolproof.
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blizzardOf96
post May 8 2012, 04:36 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ May 8 2012, 03:33 PM) *
Great posts, love to read in-depth analysis smile.gif

The subject of the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and it's eventual switch to it's cold phase is really interesting to me. The timing is somewhat ethereal but it is generally believed to function on a 70-year full cycle, with 30-35 years in each phase. If we entered the warm phase around 1995 then we could potentially have another 15 years or so until the next cool phase commences but this is far from certain. Each year also brings it's own pitfalls with spikes and dips within the overall cycle occurring regularly.

Whenever the next flip happens, it will likely have wide-ranging effects in terms of temperature and precipitation for the eastern half of the country. The relationship between the AMO and the NAO/AO has drastic consequences in terms of Eastern Canada (and the USA as well), moreso even than the ENSO state which we've been discussing at length here. Unfortunately the ability to predict the Atlantic oscillations isn't as apparent as ENSO, not that any are foolproof.


Current SST's in the Atlantic looks like a classic cold AMO although we are in a warm cycle overall. Cool water is north of newfoundland and off the southeast U.S coast, with warmth in the middle.
Attached File  atl_anom.gif ( 129.88K ) Number of downloads: 0


Warm water is forecasted to re-develop in the tropical Atlantic this summer lasting through the winter. This is usually a good signal for a negative NAO.

CFSv2 forecast has tongue of warmth in the atlantic extending from the west coast of Portugal to Cuba:
Attached File  glbSSTSeaInd6.gif ( 47.09K ) Number of downloads: 1


IRI has warm tongue in the atlantic and warmth shifting west in pacific:
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2012_05_08_at_8.50.14_PM.png ( 59K ) Number of downloads: 0


JAMSTEC has same idea:
Attached File  ssta_glob_DJF2013_1apr2012_1_.gif ( 72.14K ) Number of downloads: 0


If you compare that to forecast it had for 2009-10 winter it looks very similar.That winter had a very negative NAO as we know:
Attached File  ssta_glob_DJF2010_1apr2009.gif ( 65.63K ) Number of downloads: 0


Seems pretty interesting combined with the wintery weather west based el nino's have brought us in the past...

This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: May 8 2012, 07:52 PM


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Torontoweather
post May 8 2012, 07:03 PM
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hey guys great posts goin on here... one little comment id like to add is that it is far too early to be looking at possible analogues. the best thing to do for now is observe current conditions, like you are doing, in the pacific and Atlantic, as well as looking at all other longer range-type teleconnections/indices. also, i would also advise against using the cfs as a model, but looking at the iri updates as i think you've posted is good as they provide graphs of many climate models,as well as some analysis on current conditions. another good thing to look at is the weekly ENSO update that NOAA provides through the CPC. As ENSO conditions change they provide some good analysis on the changes occurring.
anyways, great work, just try not to look into analogues until we get into august-september time-frame at the earliest.
I hope to chime in on occasion through the summer, but have not decided whether I will be issuing a preliminary winter prediction in September sometime, or whether I will just focus on making a final winter prediction for sometime in November.


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bigmt
post May 8 2012, 09:05 PM
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Well to be honest we're not likely to get a firm grasp on next winter at this range no matter which methodology we use IMO. The CFS has some limited skill 1-2 months out but isn't a lot of use beyond that. I'd take some degree of insight from analog years over any climate model at this point but neither is going to be a magic bullet. There's so much variability with the indices beyond ENSO (which starts to show some of the cards in it's hand around this time of year) that a monkey wrench is just waiting to be tossed into the mix, as has been illustrated over the past 2-3 years with all sorts of busted forecasts even within a couple months of the winter season. Caution is the name of the game but a good discussion certainly isn't going to hurt anyone laugh.gif
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Torontoweather
post May 8 2012, 09:28 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ May 8 2012, 10:05 PM) *
Well to be honest we're not likely to get a firm grasp on next winter at this range no matter which methodology we use IMO. The CFS has some limited skill 1-2 months out but isn't a lot of use beyond that. I'd take some degree of insight from analog years over any climate model at this point but neither is going to be a magic bullet. There's so much variability with the indices beyond ENSO (which starts to show some of the cards in it's hand around this time of year) that a monkey wrench is just waiting to be tossed into the mix, as has been illustrated over the past 2-3 years with all sorts of busted forecasts even within a couple months of the winter season. Caution is the name of the game but a good discussion certainly isn't going to hurt anyone laugh.gif


haha i never said we would, but ya as i said the discussion is great.


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blizzardOf96
post May 8 2012, 09:49 PM
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I agree with you guys. I don't think their is anything wrong with putting out some ideas and updates every so often. These aren't forecasts of course but just guidance as it is very hard to get a good handle on the winter until at least october. Its all for the sake of discussion and part of longing the season that we all know and love the most! tongue.gif


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blizzardOf96
post May 14 2012, 04:03 PM
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If we look at 4 harsh winters (57-58,76-77,02-03,09-10) over the past 60 years you can see they have blocking over the southern hemisphere (a negative AAO) during the summer before them (southern hemispheres winter):
Attached File  71_58_109_165_133_19_33_46.png ( 13.45K ) Number of downloads: 0


Look what the CfS has forecasted for this summer in terms of a similar block in the southern hemisphere, looks pretty close if you ask me.CFS starting to come around with cold winter idea at 700mb showing blocking over the poles, both during southern hemisphere winter:
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2012_05_14_at_4.56.57_PM.png ( 46.77K ) Number of downloads: 0


Our winter has blocking as well with lower heights over eastern north america:
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2012_05_14_at_4.57.43_PM.png ( 32.44K ) Number of downloads: 0


Now if you look at the following winters you can see blocking over the poles and lower heights over north america:
Attached File  99.234.175.24.134.14.35.52.png ( 11.85K ) Number of downloads: 0



Surface cool but the point is that it will be more favourable for us to see blocking, backing up the idea of a cold winter, not focusing on the specific departures:
Attached File  99.234.175.24.134.14.40.7.png ( 10.1K ) Number of downloads: 0


Now look what the new CFS update has for DJF of next winter:
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2012_05_14_at_4.49.52_PM.png ( 212.13K ) Number of downloads: 0


Looks close to the JAMSTEC which is very cold:
Attached File  temp2.glob.DJF2013.1apr2012.gif ( 66.23K ) Number of downloads: 0


Looks pretty interesting if you ask me...

This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: May 14 2012, 04:22 PM


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blizzardOf96
post May 14 2012, 06:28 PM
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Years with strongest blocking shown here:
Attached File  99.234.175.24.134.17.17.15.png ( 13.58K ) Number of downloads: 0


This is what it looks like at the surface showing a clear correlation between blocking and cold temperatures across the board:
Attached File  99.234.175.24.134.17.18.36.png ( 13.86K ) Number of downloads: 0


I calculated the average snowfall for all these years in Toronto,On getting 154cm of snow, well above normal.


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