Spring 2012, Outlooks and Forecasts Options

[bigmt]

Hey, it looks like a blocking pattern is setting up next week or kind of... Am I right big?! It's not a good sign... We were looking for that all winter long and never happened, but now in april...

Yup, however it could be short-lived if the models are handling the NAO correctly.

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[stuffradio]

CFSV2 shows above normal temps and below normal precipitation for me for May. Hoping for this to be the case.

[an uncanny otter]

What a terribly boring weather pattern. Nothing interesting going on anywhere right now... besides a pretty good snowstorm in Saskatchewan. I guess New Brunswick is also getting some good snow.

Thick frost here this morning. Will likely see several more nights of heavy frost before the month is up.

Only 70 mm of rain here since the beginning of March. 30 mm of that was in a downpour we had at the end of March. The weather is gorgeous... but not very fun if you're a weather fan.

This post has been edited by an uncanny otter: Apr 7 2012, 11:12 PM

[stuffradio]

What a terribly boring weather pattern. Nothing interesting going on anywhere right now... besides a pretty good snowstorm in Saskatchewan. I guess New Brunswick is also getting some good snow.

Thick frost here this morning. Will likely see several more nights of heavy frost before the month is up.

Only 70 mm of rain here since the beginning of March. 30 mm of that was in a downpour we had at the end of March. The weather is gorgeous... but not very fun if you're a weather fan.

That's more than 100 mm less than me.

[bigmt]

1-month national precip anomalies:

 drought.jpg ( 265.67K ) Number of downloads: 9


Mixed bag throughout the west and dry in the east.

The 12z run of the GFS today shows some reasonably substantial precip moving through the east by late in the weekend and through next week. We'll see if that comes to fruition and if it can put a dent in the moisture shortfall.

[JJ Snowlover]

1-month national precip anomalies:

 drought.jpg ( 265.67K ) Number of downloads: 9


Mixed bag throughout the west and dry in the east.

The 12z run of the GFS today shows some reasonably substantial precip moving through the east by late in the weekend and through next week. We'll see if that comes to fruition and if it can put a dent in the moisture shortfall.

Let's hope so, the showers from yesterday and today did little...

[travis3000]

It rained/snowed here all day! Temps remained steady at 3C with brisk NW winds. Miserable conditions to say the least

[an uncanny otter]

We've been having periodic rain, snow and sleet since this morning. Probably the last time we'll see snowflakes here until November, but can't say anything for sure.

I was reading an interesting article in the London Free Press the other day about the dry conditions and how low the Thames River is running this year. It's so surreal considering we had so many flooding issues last year and more precipitation than any other year on record. Now we're talking about drought concerns!

http://www.lfpress.com/news/london/2012/04/08/19607636.html

[...]Wilcox attributes this year's head-shaker to "the variable climate we are seeing.

"We didn't have the snowpack, we haven't had the rain," he said.

There have only been a few times in the last century when the Thames has plunged to water levels as low as it is now, for this time of year, Wilcox said.

Though it's highly unlikely the river would ever run completely dry, the authority can release water it holds behind flood-prevention dams if that risk occurs.

Still, a very low river threatens all kinds of problems -- for humans and wildlife alike, including depleted oxygen levels and the risk of disease.

April showers are needed to return the flow in the Thames and its important feeder streams to traditional levels.[...]

Fortunately, it looks like we might have some showers in the forecast for the coming week, along with some warmer temps.

This post has been edited by an uncanny otter: Apr 10 2012, 09:18 PM

[stuffradio]

12z GFS shows a ridge in the West. 17C temps at 850mb for my area, and a deep trough in the east. Thoughts?

[bigmt]

12z GFS shows a ridge in the West. 17C temps at 850mb for my area, and a deep trough in the east. Thoughts?

Assuming you mean hour 324:

 12zgfs850mbTSLPNA324.gif ( 60.19K ) Number of downloads: 1


The ensemble mean isn't as amplified:

 12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA324.gif ( 55.61K ) Number of downloads: 0


It's gonna be tough to sustain with a negative PNA but a lot is on the table at that range, including a rise to positive territory.

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[stuffradio]

Assuming you mean hour 324:

 12zgfs850mbTSLPNA324.gif ( 60.19K ) Number of downloads: 1


The ensemble mean isn't as amplified:

 12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA324.gif ( 55.61K ) Number of downloads: 0


It's gonna be tough to sustain with a negative PNA but a lot is on the table at that range, including a rise to positive territory.

 pna.sprd2.gif ( 6.37K ) Number of downloads: 0

The 18z GFS took it right out.

[travis3000]

Looks like a steep drop in temps between Sunday and Monday (about 19-21C on Sun, and down to 3-6C Mon). Lots of rain from the Saturday through Wednesday timeframe. It will be pretty depressing out there with lots of clouds. Hopefully we all enjoy the beautiful day in store tomorrow. Won't be seeing that for a good few weeks I think.

[ottawasnowstorm]

Liking the heat that is here and will especially increase sunday and monday with the low 20's expected in Ottawa.

[an uncanny otter]

Since January 1st, Toronto has only recorded 104.8 mm of precipitation. Of that, only 50.6 mm has fallen since February 1st, which is very dry considering that normally Toronto should have around 186 mm of precipitation by now. If the dry conditions persist into the summer we could have some drought problems.

This post has been edited by an uncanny otter: Apr 16 2012, 04:08 PM

[stuffradio]

Since January 1st, Toronto has only recorded 104.8 mm of precipitation. Of that, only 50.6 mm has fallen since February 1st, which is very dry considering that normally Toronto should have around 186 mm of precipitation by now. If the dry conditions persist into the summer we could have some drought problems.

I have had 574 mm since January 1. Why won't it end.

[travis3000]

It's extremely dry in the Alliston/Simcoe County area. The wind is blowing the dirt from the fields all over the place. In some locations, you have zero visibility from blowing dust. Feels like the desert lol

[bigmt]

Solid consensus for some cooler air to take hold for the east, at least temporarily. Day 6 2m temp departures from the 12z GFS ensembles (individual members included with the mean):

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[ottawasnowstorm]

Liking the heat that is here and will especially increase sunday and monday with the low 20's expected in Ottawa.

Wow! It hit about 28C today in Ottawa. Will know exactly what by tomorrow but did not expect it to be this hot. Once the sun came out, temperatures just sizzled. I wonder if a record was set today?

[blizzardOf96]

Latest snow map off the GFS, LOL!!

Attached File(s)

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[bigmt]

Some much-needed moisture for ON and S QUE looks like it could be on the way over the next week according to the CMC. Here's a few shots but you can also view the 5-day animation at http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn...pe_gem_reg.html

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