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> Spring 2012, Outlooks and Forecasts
bigmt
post Apr 4 2012, 08:44 PM
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QUOTE(TheFrenchman @ Apr 4 2012, 06:36 PM) *
Hey, it looks like a blocking pattern is setting up next week or kind of... Am I right big?! It's not a good sign... We were looking for that all winter long and never happened, but now in april... sad.gif


Yup, however it could be short-lived if the models are handling the NAO correctly.

Attached File  nao.sprd2.gif ( 6.51K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  12zallnao.gif ( 7.13K ) Number of downloads: 0
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stuffradio
post Apr 6 2012, 06:13 PM
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CFSV2 shows above normal temps and below normal precipitation for me for May. Hoping for this to be the case.
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an uncanny otter
post Apr 7 2012, 11:05 PM
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What a terribly boring weather pattern. Nothing interesting going on anywhere right now... besides a pretty good snowstorm in Saskatchewan. I guess New Brunswick is also getting some good snow.

Thick frost here this morning. Will likely see several more nights of heavy frost before the month is up.

Only 70 mm of rain here since the beginning of March. 30 mm of that was in a downpour we had at the end of March. The weather is gorgeous... but not very fun if you're a weather fan.

This post has been edited by an uncanny otter: Apr 7 2012, 11:12 PM
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stuffradio
post Apr 8 2012, 12:56 AM
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QUOTE(an uncanny otter @ Apr 7 2012, 09:05 PM) *
What a terribly boring weather pattern. Nothing interesting going on anywhere right now... besides a pretty good snowstorm in Saskatchewan. I guess New Brunswick is also getting some good snow.

Thick frost here this morning. Will likely see several more nights of heavy frost before the month is up.

Only 70 mm of rain here since the beginning of March. 30 mm of that was in a downpour we had at the end of March. The weather is gorgeous... but not very fun if you're a weather fan.

That's more than 100 mm less than me.
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bigmt
post Apr 10 2012, 11:58 AM
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1-month national precip anomalies:

Attached File  drought.jpg ( 265.67K ) Number of downloads: 9


Mixed bag throughout the west and dry in the east.

The 12z run of the GFS today shows some reasonably substantial precip moving through the east by late in the weekend and through next week. We'll see if that comes to fruition and if it can put a dent in the moisture shortfall.
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JJ Snowlover
post Apr 10 2012, 01:20 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Apr 10 2012, 11:58 AM) *
1-month national precip anomalies:

Attached File  drought.jpg ( 265.67K ) Number of downloads: 9


Mixed bag throughout the west and dry in the east.

The 12z run of the GFS today shows some reasonably substantial precip moving through the east by late in the weekend and through next week. We'll see if that comes to fruition and if it can put a dent in the moisture shortfall.

Let's hope so, the showers from yesterday and today did little...
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travis3000
post Apr 10 2012, 06:17 PM
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It rained/snowed here all day! Temps remained steady at 3C with brisk NW winds. Miserable conditions to say the least


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an uncanny otter
post Apr 10 2012, 07:38 PM
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We've been having periodic rain, snow and sleet since this morning. Probably the last time we'll see snowflakes here until November, but can't say anything for sure.

I was reading an interesting article in the London Free Press the other day about the dry conditions and how low the Thames River is running this year. It's so surreal considering we had so many flooding issues last year and more precipitation than any other year on record. Now we're talking about drought concerns!

http://www.lfpress.com/news/london/2012/04/08/19607636.html
QUOTE
[...]Wilcox attributes this year's head-shaker to "the variable climate we are seeing.

"We didn't have the snowpack, we haven't had the rain," he said.

There have only been a few times in the last century when the Thames has plunged to water levels as low as it is now, for this time of year, Wilcox said.

Though it's highly unlikely the river would ever run completely dry, the authority can release water it holds behind flood-prevention dams if that risk occurs.

Still, a very low river threatens all kinds of problems -- for humans and wildlife alike, including depleted oxygen levels and the risk of disease.

April showers are needed to return the flow in the Thames and its important feeder streams to traditional levels.[...]
Fortunately, it looks like we might have some showers in the forecast for the coming week, along with some warmer temps.

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stuffradio
post Apr 11 2012, 12:55 PM
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12z GFS shows a ridge in the West. 17C temps at 850mb for my area, and a deep trough in the east. Thoughts?
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bigmt
post Apr 11 2012, 08:41 PM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Apr 11 2012, 01:55 PM) *
12z GFS shows a ridge in the West. 17C temps at 850mb for my area, and a deep trough in the east. Thoughts?


Assuming you mean hour 324:

Attached File  12zgfs850mbTSLPNA324.gif ( 60.19K ) Number of downloads: 1


The ensemble mean isn't as amplified:

Attached File  12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA324.gif ( 55.61K ) Number of downloads: 0


It's gonna be tough to sustain with a negative PNA but a lot is on the table at that range, including a rise to positive territory.

Attached File  pna.sprd2.gif ( 6.37K ) Number of downloads: 0
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stuffradio
post Apr 11 2012, 08:51 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Apr 11 2012, 06:41 PM) *
Assuming you mean hour 324:

Attached File  12zgfs850mbTSLPNA324.gif ( 60.19K ) Number of downloads: 1


The ensemble mean isn't as amplified:

Attached File  12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA324.gif ( 55.61K ) Number of downloads: 0


It's gonna be tough to sustain with a negative PNA but a lot is on the table at that range, including a rise to positive territory.

Attached File  pna.sprd2.gif ( 6.37K ) Number of downloads: 0

The 18z GFS took it right out.
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travis3000
post Apr 12 2012, 10:24 PM
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Looks like a steep drop in temps between Sunday and Monday (about 19-21C on Sun, and down to 3-6C Mon). Lots of rain from the Saturday through Wednesday timeframe. It will be pretty depressing out there with lots of clouds. Hopefully we all enjoy the beautiful day in store tomorrow. Won't be seeing that for a good few weeks I think.


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ottawasnowstorm
post Apr 13 2012, 08:31 PM
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Liking the heat that is here and will especially increase sunday and monday with the low 20's expected in Ottawa.
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an uncanny otter
post Apr 16 2012, 04:08 PM
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Since January 1st, Toronto has only recorded 104.8 mm of precipitation. Of that, only 50.6 mm has fallen since February 1st, which is very dry considering that normally Toronto should have around 186 mm of precipitation by now. If the dry conditions persist into the summer we could have some drought problems.

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stuffradio
post Apr 16 2012, 04:12 PM
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QUOTE(an uncanny otter @ Apr 16 2012, 02:08 PM) *
Since January 1st, Toronto has only recorded 104.8 mm of precipitation. Of that, only 50.6 mm has fallen since February 1st, which is very dry considering that normally Toronto should have around 186 mm of precipitation by now. If the dry conditions persist into the summer we could have some drought problems.

I have had 574 mm since January 1. Why won't it end.
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travis3000
post Apr 16 2012, 06:05 PM
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It's extremely dry in the Alliston/Simcoe County area. The wind is blowing the dirt from the fields all over the place. In some locations, you have zero visibility from blowing dust. Feels like the desert lol


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bigmt
post Apr 16 2012, 08:19 PM
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Solid consensus for some cooler air to take hold for the east, at least temporarily. Day 6 2m temp departures from the 12z GFS ensembles (individual members included with the mean):

Attached File  D6.gif ( 102.01K ) Number of downloads: 1
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ottawasnowstorm
post Apr 16 2012, 09:45 PM
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QUOTE(ottawasnowstorm @ Apr 13 2012, 09:31 PM) *
Liking the heat that is here and will especially increase sunday and monday with the low 20's expected in Ottawa.

Wow! It hit about 28C today in Ottawa. Will know exactly what by tomorrow but did not expect it to be this hot. Once the sun came out, temperatures just sizzled. I wonder if a record was set today?
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blizzardOf96
post Apr 17 2012, 07:07 AM
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Latest snow map off the GFS, LOL!!

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Attached File  Screen_shot_2012_04_17_at_6_07_51_AM_1__1.png ( 92.43K ) Number of downloads: 1
 


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bigmt
post Apr 17 2012, 09:02 AM
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Some much-needed moisture for ON and S QUE looks like it could be on the way over the next week according to the CMC. Here's a few shots but you can also view the 5-day animation at http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn...pe_gem_reg.html

Attached File  cmc1.png ( 41.04K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  cmc2.png ( 41.91K ) Number of downloads: 1
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