Spring 2012, Outlooks and Forecasts Options

[TriC]

Forecast is calling for 30°C in Medicine Hat and parts of southern Alberta tomorrow! Could be the first 30°C reading in Canada this year.

it will not be the 1st but I like that heat.. back in March some of the weather stations in London hit over 30c in march this year. IONLONDO5 witch is an environment Canada weather station in the went end of London hit 32.5c on March 22. and IONTARIO226 in the west end of London as well hit 30.5c on the same day.

[bigmt]

Forecast is calling for 30°C in Medicine Hat and parts of southern Alberta tomorrow! Could be the first 30°C reading in Canada this year.

Areas of western North America are enjoying some warmth (quite toasty in the SW USA) due to the highly amplified pattern which is also a key ingredient in the stormy weather through the east currently. The ridge and trough are shown on this map from the 18z GFS at hour :

 gfs_namer_012_500_vort_ht.gif ( 112.45K ) Number of downloads: 0


According to the GFS this pattern stays more-or-less entrenched, albeit not to such an extreme, through to almost the end of the month. We'll see if that holds true.

[JJ Snowlover]

According to the GFS this pattern stays more-or-less entrenched, albeit not to such an extreme, through to almost the end of the month. We'll see if that holds true.

Ya both EC and TWN are calling for more snow on Friday, great, that's what we need at the end of April

[bigmt]

A quick look at the small storm swinging through ON for later in the week from various models.

06z GFS and NAM @ hour 57:

 gfs_namer_057_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 59.61K ) Number of downloads: 0


 nam_namer_057_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 59.16K ) Number of downloads: 0


 USA_ASNOW24_sfc_072.gif ( 20.02K ) Number of downloads: 0


 USA_ASNOW24_sfc_072nam.gif ( 22.39K ) Number of downloads: 0


00z CMC @ hour 60:

 I_nw_g1_EST_2012042400_060.png ( 44.7K ) Number of downloads: 0


While the east suffers through cool and wet weather, the Prairie Provinces have enjoyed exceptionally warm conditions. Records were set yesterday through Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/sws_e.html

Location - New Record - Old Record - Previous Record Year - Records Began

--------------------------------------------------------
Gretna 24.5 24.2 2010 1956
Melita 25.9 24.3 2010 1993

Assiniboia 28.3 25.0 1962 1916
Kindersley 26.9 24.8 1998 1913
Maple Creek 29.5 29.0 1998 1922
Moose Jaw 27.5 27.2 1906 1894
Rosetown 26.8 25.0 1981 1937
Swift Current 27.6 26.7 1906 1886
Watrous 24.7 24.0 1982 1953
Weyburn 27.0 25.0 1982 1917

Brooks 30.4 25.2 2003 1912
Calgary 25.8 24.2 1910 1885
Claresholm 27.1 24.0 1980 1952
Coronation 26.1 23.9 1980 1952
Drumheller 29.8 26.1 1977 1954
Medicine Hat 31.1 27.8 1920 1884
Pincher Creek 25.7 24.5 1980 1894
Red Deer 25.5 25.0 1910 1909
Sundre 25.1 21.6 2003 1986
Vauxhall 30.5 26.1 1962 1914
Waterton Park Gate 25.2 23.9 1977 1967

[JJ Snowlover]

A quick look at the small storm swinging through ON for later in the week from various models.


While the east suffers through cool and wet weather, the Prairie Provinces have enjoyed exceptionally warm conditions. Records were set yesterday through Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta.

Nice to see that the snow for tomorrow and Friday has retreated north, and we only get some showers. But looks like we wont get back to normal temps until around May 2 or 3rd.

Is it safe to add up the snow totals for this spring and winter now It did say stats from EC that Ottawa has never seen a spring were some snow was not recorded from the end of March until May, so we didnt' break that record this year at least...

[bigmt]

Nice to see that the snow for tomorrow and Friday has retreated north, and we only get some showers. But looks like we wont get back to normal temps until around May 2 or 3rd.

Indeed, chilly air is in the driver's seat to round out the month. Here's the next 5 days according to the 12z GFS ensemble mean:.

 D1.gif ( 40.82K ) Number of downloads: 0


 D2.gif ( 39.28K ) Number of downloads: 0


 D3.gif ( 37.45K ) Number of downloads: 0


 D4.gif ( 37.12K ) Number of downloads: 0


 D5.gif ( 36.29K ) Number of downloads: 0

[TheFrenchman]

Indeed, chilly air is in the driver's seat to round out the month. Here's the next 5 days according to the 12z GFS ensemble mean:.

 D1.gif ( 40.82K ) Number of downloads: 0


 D2.gif ( 39.28K ) Number of downloads: 0


 D3.gif ( 37.45K ) Number of downloads: 0


 D4.gif ( 37.12K ) Number of downloads: 0


 D5.gif ( 36.29K ) Number of downloads: 0

Where is the warm weather ???!!!

I sure hope this is not the new pattern for the summer to come....!

[an uncanny otter]

The mean temp for March in Windsor was 9.6°C... in April so far it has been 9.4°C. If the rest of this month stays below-average we might just end with with a warmer March than April. That's pretty incredible. I don't think that's ever happened before although I would have to check.

The weather looks to be largely uninteresting for the next little while. Above-normal temperatures dominate in the long range for southern Ontario with average precipitation. There doesn't look to be any real chances for severe storms either if a zonal flow takes over with very few large-scale outbreaks.

BC looks cool and west which has been the pattern for a very long time now. The Atlantic provinces look to continue staying dry.

I hope this isn't a sign of a boring summer to come. The only thunderstorms we have had in April were non-severe at best.

6-10 day temperatures:
 610temp.gif ( 174.29K ) Number of downloads: 0


6-10 day precipitation:
 610pre.gif ( 180.71K ) Number of downloads: 0


8-14 day temperatures:
 810temp.gif ( 174.7K ) Number of downloads: 0


8-14 day precipitation:
 814prec.gif ( 171.1K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by an uncanny otter: Apr 25 2012, 10:30 PM

Attached File(s)

 814prec.gif ( 171.1K ) Number of downloads: 0

 

[stuffradio]

The mean temp for March in Windsor was 9.6°C... in April so far it has been 9.4°C. If the rest of this month stays below-average we might just end with with a warmer March than April. That's pretty incredible. I don't think that's ever happened before although I would have to check.

The weather looks to be largely uninteresting for the next little while. Above-normal temperatures dominate in the long range for southern Ontario with average precipitation. There doesn't look to be any real chances for severe storms either if a zonal flow takes over with very few large-scale outbreaks.

BC looks cool and west which has been the pattern for a very long time now. The Atlantic provinces look to continue staying dry.

I hope this isn't a sign of a boring summer to come. The only thunderstorms we have had in April were non-severe at best.

6-10 day temperatures:
 610temp.gif ( 174.29K ) Number of downloads: 0


6-10 day precipitation:
 610pre.gif ( 180.71K ) Number of downloads: 0


8-14 day temperatures:
 810temp.gif ( 174.7K ) Number of downloads: 0


8-14 day precipitation:
 814prec.gif ( 171.1K ) Number of downloads: 0

Below normal temps and lots of rain for me is stupid. Get that pattern out of here!

[TheFrenchman]

Taken from the hurricane forecast:

"" With a ridge [of high pressure] over the Rockies and a trough [of low pressure] over the Great Lakes and Appalachians, the East Coast will be open for a hit [this summer]. ""


Is this the general pattern forecast for the summer ?? Holy *bleep*!! this means more and more cool / unsettled weather for us in the East...

What do u think bigmt ?

[bigmt]

Taken from the hurricane forecast:

"" With a ridge [of high pressure] over the Rockies and a trough [of low pressure] over the Great Lakes and Appalachians, the East Coast will be open for a hit [this summer]. ""
Is this the general pattern forecast for the summer ?? Holy *bleep*!! this means more and more cool / unsettled weather for us in the East...

What do u think bigmt ?

Much of Accuweather's hurricane forecast is based upon an expected El Nino event later in the year. This is also common amongst many other outlooks for the hurricane season from other agencies, thus it seems reasonable to have a look at years which transitioned to a weak-to-moderate warm ENSO event moving towards the winter. This may or may not be a foregone conclusion but it seems quite reasonable at this point in time. The strength of a potential warm event is a key factor as the fall and winter approach.

Historical weak-moderate El Nino summer 500mb average pattern:

 500mbnino.png ( 13.76K ) Number of downloads: 0


Surface air temps:

 surftempnino.png ( 15.8K ) Number of downloads: 0


Years where La Nina transitioned to a weak-moderate El Nino, 500mb:

 500mbninatonino.png ( 14.82K ) Number of downloads: 0


Surface air temps:

 airtempninatonino.png ( 14.69K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hmm, sort of a mixed bag of messages there. The years where a La Nina episode turned to an El Nino seem to have a warmer look to them for the Great Lakes area while the west coast is significantly warmer during the overall Nino years.

Another source of info is the CFSv2 but like other model information it's level of skill degrades the farther out it looks.

June-July-August Temps for North America:

 usT2mSeaInd2.gif ( 26.52K ) Number of downloads: 0


June-July-August Precip:

 usPrecSeaInd2.gif ( 30.14K ) Number of downloads: 0


No clear signals in terms of temperature but the precip map seems to point to the possibility of a wet pattern for the Eastern USA and some dry areas of far Western Canada.

Another indicator to look at is the SOI values which have actually been positive for the last while which isn't conducive to a rapidly-developing El Nino.

 soivalues.png ( 22.3K ) Number of downloads: 0


There's been an abundance of summers recently which featured some degree of troughiness over the East and subsequent recurvature of tropical systems into the open Atlantic Ocean but whether that will be the predominant setup this time remains to be seen. It's fortunate for areas severely impacted by the 2004 & 2005 (2008 also to a lesser extent) hurricane seasons that steering patterns have largely worked in their favour lately.

My personal feeling is that the bulk of the summer warmth for Eastern Canada could be front-loaded with an eventual cooldown through the mid-late summer (not ruling out warm spells of course) as sections of the west enjoy a warmer and drier pattern due to a developing weak El Nino event. It's still early going so I'll be sure to keep things updated as we go and conditions potentially change.

Sorry for the long post, almost seems to belong in a Summer 2012 thread

Attached File(s)

 usT2mSeaInd2.gif ( 26.52K ) Number of downloads: 0

 

[an uncanny otter]

I think the NAM should retire from forecasting and perform stand-up comedy instead.

 lol.gif ( 31.24K ) Number of downloads: 0

[stuffradio]

Much of Accuweather's hurricane forecast is based upon an expected El Nino event later in the year. This is also common amongst many other outlooks for the hurricane season from other agencies, thus it seems reasonable to have a look at years which transitioned to a weak-to-moderate warm ENSO event moving towards the winter. This may or may not be a foregone conclusion but it seems quite reasonable at this point in time. The strength of a potential warm event is a key factor as the fall and winter approach.

Historical weak-moderate El Nino summer 500mb average pattern:

 500mbnino.png ( 13.76K ) Number of downloads: 0


Surface air temps:

 surftempnino.png ( 15.8K ) Number of downloads: 0


Years where La Nina transitioned to a weak-moderate El Nino, 500mb:

 500mbninatonino.png ( 14.82K ) Number of downloads: 0


Surface air temps:

 airtempninatonino.png ( 14.69K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hmm, sort of a mixed bag of messages there. The years where a La Nina episode turned to an El Nino seem to have a warmer look to them for the Great Lakes area while the west coast is significantly warmer during the overall Nino years.

Another source of info is the CFSv2 but like other model information it's level of skill degrades the farther out it looks.

June-July-August Temps for North America:

 usT2mSeaInd2.gif ( 26.52K ) Number of downloads: 0


June-July-August Precip:

 usPrecSeaInd2.gif ( 30.14K ) Number of downloads: 0


No clear signals in terms of temperature but the precip map seems to point to the possibility of a wet pattern for the Eastern USA and some dry areas of far Western Canada.

Another indicator to look at is the SOI values which have actually been positive for the last while which isn't conducive to a rapidly-developing El Nino.

 soivalues.png ( 22.3K ) Number of downloads: 0


There's been an abundance of summers recently which featured some degree of troughiness over the East and subsequent recurvature of tropical systems into the open Atlantic Ocean but whether that will be the predominant setup this time remains to be seen. It's fortunate for areas severely impacted by the 2004 & 2005 (2008 also to a lesser extent) hurricane seasons that steering patterns have largely worked in their favour lately.

My personal feeling is that the bulk of the summer warmth for Eastern Canada could be front-loaded with an eventual cooldown through the mid-late summer (not ruling out warm spells of course) as sections of the west enjoy a warmer and drier pattern due to a developing weak El Nino event. It's still early going so I'll be sure to keep things updated as we go and conditions potentially change.

Sorry for the long post, almost seems to belong in a Summer 2012 thread

I'm not sure if this is true, but it seems as if the PNW and my area are the driest areas of the CONUS, while most of the rest can get lots more rain than us on average during the summer. There might be areas like Texas that are still drier than us, but in general this seems to be what happens. Any truth to this?

[bigmt]

I'm not sure if this is true, but it seems as if the PNW and my area are the driest areas of the CONUS, while most of the rest can get lots more rain than us on average during the summer. There might be areas like Texas that are still drier than us, but in general this seems to be what happens. Any truth to this?

Some areas of Southern BC are generally quite warm and dry through the summer months, especially through the interior regions. Here's an image showing the average precip from April to August across Canada (click to enlarge):

 average.jpg ( 297.31K ) Number of downloads: 4


Quite a difference between the wet coastal sections and the interior which is amongst the driest for that period in the country, alongside stretches of the North where reliable information is more sporadic.

This cross-section is fairly old but still interesting to show the diverse climate in BC:

 topography.jpg ( 269.79K ) Number of downloads: 6


The recent cool and soggy weather can in part be attributed to a combination of La Nina, a negative PDO regime & dips in the PNA pattern. A shift to an El Nino through the course of the year could do much to reverse that trend but the cold PDO can persist for decades at a time (hence the 'Decadal' in Pacific Decadal Oscillation).

[JJ Snowlover]

I think the NAM should retire from forecasting and perform stand-up comedy instead.

 lol.gif ( 31.24K ) Number of downloads: 0

Yes the NAM is usually good for laugh. Although it was cold here this morning, -2c, windchill -8c and some flurries. Only a high of +3c today. Winter just keeps hanging on here

[puttin]

Yes the NAM is usually good for laugh. Although it was cold here this morning, -2c, windchill -8c and some flurries. Only a high of +3c today. Winter just keeps hanging on here

Hi all, looks like we are paying for that burst of summer heat a few weeks back. Sorry I haven't been back for a while, had a car accident (not my fault) and trying to get back in the swing of things..... Going up north to open the cottage up with a balmy +5 degrees and a north wind so I'd better find my winter boots, hat, mits..... this is not going to be fun..... where did spring go and what's with this cold and snow. Hate it.!

[stuffradio]

Some areas of Southern BC are generally quite warm and dry through the summer months, especially through the interior regions. Here's an image showing the average precip from April to August across Canada (click to enlarge):

 average.jpg ( 297.31K ) Number of downloads: 4


Quite a difference between the wet coastal sections and the interior which is amongst the driest for that period in the country, alongside stretches of the North where reliable information is more sporadic.

This cross-section is fairly old but still interesting to show the diverse climate in BC:

 topography.jpg ( 269.79K ) Number of downloads: 6


The recent cool and soggy weather can in part be attributed to a combination of La Nina, a negative PDO regime & dips in the PNA pattern. A shift to an El Nino through the course of the year could do much to reverse that trend but the cold PDO can persist for decades at a time (hence the 'Decadal' in Pacific Decadal Oscillation).

Thanks, I always like your posts.
All we have to do, is look at the Okanagan. They have cold winters with snow, and hot Summers. They grow Apricots, Ice Wine (frozen grapes harvested for wine), Peaches, etc. there. It's a 3.5 hour drive from my house.

If I drive about an hour from my house, there are lots of farms growing Corn. There are also many farms around all the areas growing Broccoli, Cauliflower, Brussels Sprouts, etc. Blueberries and Cranberries are also grown a lot in different areas.

[TheFrenchman]

Much of Accuweather's hurricane forecast is based upon an expected El Nino event later in the year. This is also common amongst many other outlooks for the hurricane season from other agencies, thus it seems reasonable to have a look at years which transitioned to a weak-to-moderate warm ENSO event moving towards the winter. This may or may not be a foregone conclusion but it seems quite reasonable at this point in time. The strength of a potential warm event is a key factor as the fall and winter approach.

Historical weak-moderate El Nino summer 500mb average pattern:

 500mbnino.png ( 13.76K ) Number of downloads: 0


Surface air temps:

 surftempnino.png ( 15.8K ) Number of downloads: 0


Years where La Nina transitioned to a weak-moderate El Nino, 500mb:

 500mbninatonino.png ( 14.82K ) Number of downloads: 0


Surface air temps:

 airtempninatonino.png ( 14.69K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hmm, sort of a mixed bag of messages there. The years where a La Nina episode turned to an El Nino seem to have a warmer look to them for the Great Lakes area while the west coast is significantly warmer during the overall Nino years.

Another source of info is the CFSv2 but like other model information it's level of skill degrades the farther out it looks.

June-July-August Temps for North America:

 usT2mSeaInd2.gif ( 26.52K ) Number of downloads: 0


June-July-August Precip:

 usPrecSeaInd2.gif ( 30.14K ) Number of downloads: 0


No clear signals in terms of temperature but the precip map seems to point to the possibility of a wet pattern for the Eastern USA and some dry areas of far Western Canada.

Another indicator to look at is the SOI values which have actually been positive for the last while which isn't conducive to a rapidly-developing El Nino.

 soivalues.png ( 22.3K ) Number of downloads: 0


There's been an abundance of summers recently which featured some degree of troughiness over the East and subsequent recurvature of tropical systems into the open Atlantic Ocean but whether that will be the predominant setup this time remains to be seen. It's fortunate for areas severely impacted by the 2004 & 2005 (2008 also to a lesser extent) hurricane seasons that steering patterns have largely worked in their favour lately.

My personal feeling is that the bulk of the summer warmth for Eastern Canada could be front-loaded with an eventual cooldown through the mid-late summer (not ruling out warm spells of course) as sections of the west enjoy a warmer and drier pattern due to a developing weak El Nino event. It's still early going so I'll be sure to keep things updated as we go and conditions potentially change.

Sorry for the long post, almost seems to belong in a Summer 2012 thread

Really interesting!! Great post!

I agree with you. It's hard to tell what kind of weather we will have this summer, but I suppose the second part will be cooler. At the end, i think it will be pretty close to normals as a whole.

I just hope it will be better than this end of april weather...!

[bigmt]

Utilizing the 12z Euro for illustration, the vortex delivering frosty temps to Eastern Canada currently will be displaced by next week and a more seasonable airmass will take hold.

500mb pattern @ hour 24:

 12zeuro500mbHGHTNA024.gif ( 59.04K ) Number of downloads: 0


Significant changes by hour 120:

 12zeuro500mbHGHTNA120.gif ( 57.66K ) Number of downloads: 0

[TheFrenchman]

From Joe Bastardi's twitter:

"Cooler May on the way for much of the eastern/central USA as WeatherBell has been tolling.Hot start, then heat dispersal and temp reversal "


Sounds bad!!