Spring 2012, Outlooks and Forecasts Options

[stuffradio]

Spring is only around 34 days away. The CFSV2 is showing a warmer than normal Spring/Summer for my area starting after March.

What is the general consensus on what people are thinking right now? Will we see a lot of thunderstorms? Last year on the West Coast, we didn't really see any thunderstorms, but we did see lots of rain. So I'm really hoping we have a better Spring/Summer this year than last, since last year was fairly miserable.

For East Coasters, think Summer 2009, except that was what Spring and most of Summer was for us.

[Ryan45]

Thanks for starting this thread!

[yhm_hamilton]

I don't know what its going to be like but I do know I hope its like 2010 was, it was warma nd early around here.

[bigmt]

A look at the CFS v2 through August.

2m Temps:

 usT2mMon.gif ( 31.71K ) Number of downloads: 5


Precip:

 usPrecMon.gif ( 34.65K ) Number of downloads: 1


Typical La Nina effects for March, April & May and frequency of occurrence (expect a weakening Nina through this time period).

Temps:

 lanina.mam.temp.gif ( 80.08K ) Number of downloads: 0


Precip:

 lanina.mam.precip.gif ( 81.37K ) Number of downloads: 0


Brett also tweeted about the Euro monthlies today.

http://twitter.com/#!/BrettAWX

New ECMWF monthlies are out....still going with a warm spring in the eastern half of U.S. and Canada.

[Removed_Member_Snowstorms_*]

Based on variables I've analyzed, I do foresee a cooler and wetter than normal April across most of the East and across the West but I do think May will wind up near normal-slightly above normal across the East, cooler than normal still across the West.

Lets see how the ENSO fairs thru March. That should be a big clue on what may occur in the Spring (MAM)

This post has been edited by Snowstorms: Feb 15 2012, 06:14 PM

[stuffradio]

I hope the West gets a warm spring. Cliffmass thinks there is a good possibility it will be warmer than the last few years.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2012/02/longest-forecast.html

[an uncanny otter]

I'm wondering if the lack of any real organized LPs this winter will continue into the spring. If not, we might see less large-scale organized severe outbreaks than usual.

This is probably a good thing considering the severe season of last spring in the US.

This post has been edited by an uncanny otter: Feb 15 2012, 06:40 PM

[bigmt]

I'm wondering if the lack of any real organized LPs this winter will continue into the spring. If not, we might see less large-scale organized severe outbreaks than usual.

This is probably a good thing considering the severe season of last spring in the US.

Well, there's a lot of heat on tap from the Gulf to serve as fuel for severe weather.

 anoma.2.13.2012.gif ( 54.86K ) Number of downloads: 0


However, the clashing of air masses may not occur as readily given the fact that opposing cold air isn't really available throughout most of NA but we'll have to see how this progresses. I doubt very highly that it will be anything like the record-setting severe weather season of last year but the areas affected may be shifted northwards and could perhaps include regions of ON earlier than the usual summer time period.

[an uncanny otter]

I love severe weather just as much as I do winter weather (perhaps even moreso) but hate the destruction that comes with it. Hopefully we'll see an active spring up here without the toll that frequently comes with severe weather.

Anything but the soaking spring of last year, really. I guess if you love clouds and rain last April was right up your alley.

[bigmt]

EC seasonal forecast for March, April & May, temps:

 s234fe1t_s.gif ( 91.54K ) Number of downloads: 0


Precip:

 s234fe1p_s.gif ( 81.65K ) Number of downloads: 0


CPC update for March, April & May, temps:

 off01_temp_small.gif ( 50.69K ) Number of downloads: 0


Precip:

 off01_prcp_small.gif ( 49.16K ) Number of downloads: 0

[JJ Snowlover]

Based on EC's outlook above it looks like we will continue with the same warm pattern we've been experiencing with most of the storms heading NW like they have been.

Bring it on, I am ready for spring, this winter sucked, so let's get it over with. It's certainly feeling spring like around here, the snow pack is really taking a beating.

I hope we have an awesome sunny warm March like 2010, although that year we paid for it and had a cool, wet May.

[bigmt]

Gonna try something here and see if it's interesting to anybody.

I chose 4 analog winters based mainly on how they compared to this year and how awful they were. 1949-50, 1974-75, 1999-00 & 2001-02. All were Ninas with the exception of 01-02 which was ENSO neutral.

First, a look at the 500mb pattern for this winter (I used Nov-Jan since the data for Feb isn't complete yet):

 novjan2012.png ( 12.73K ) Number of downloads: 0


1949-50:

 decfeb1950.png ( 12.08K ) Number of downloads: 0


1974-75:

 decfeb1975.png ( 13.63K ) Number of downloads: 0


1999-00:

 decfeb2000.png ( 12.65K ) Number of downloads: 0


2001-02:

 decfeb2002.png ( 14.18K ) Number of downloads: 0


One common feature was the lowered heights over Alaska, outside of 49-50 which had some ridging there. This is widely considered an extremely ugly pattern since it encourages mild pacific air to enter the NA pattern.

Here's the air temperatures for all of those winters together, looking toasty in the East:

 airtempsall.png ( 13.06K ) Number of downloads: 0


Now to get back on track with spring, if we roll those analogs forward to March-May we get a 500mb pattern which looks like this:

 500mbspring.png ( 13.04K ) Number of downloads: 0


Air temps for spring from all those years:

 airtempsspring.png ( 15.41K ) Number of downloads: 0


Things cooled down considerably, especially in the west. So the questions are how much do you trust analog years which may or may not always serve a useful purpose? And if you do, do you agree with my choices or have any suggestions for others? I could perhaps roll them forward again to the following winter to see what it showed if that peaks anyone's curiosity. Any comments?

[Regg]

I don't because it's only looking at one aspect (Nino/Nina) when there's a lot more than that managing climate. I mean, any conclusion would be anecdoctical (meaningless) if you only look at one item.

There's a big difference when you got a La Nina lasting all year than a year when La Nina is fading (turning to neutral) at the end of the winter (like 2011 , and like 2012 as it is looking the same way for the moment) - so selecting a year or a period of this or that condition must be carefully done. Even a year starting in Nino, going mostly to neutral the rest of the year to end under La Nina - it's an all different ball game.

This post has been edited by Regg: Feb 17 2012, 10:14 PM

[bigmt]

I don't because it's only looking at one aspect (Nino/Nina) when there's a lot more than that managing climate. I mean, any conclusion would be anecdoctical (meaningless) if you only look at one item.

I see your point but it's still a major factor and I also chose most of the years based on similar upper air steering patterns, not solely ENSO. We can also sort by other teleconnections as well for possible similarities there.

For instance, how about winters where the AO (something we've also talked a lot about this year) averaged >1 standard deviation? Here the temps for them:

 209.87.238.179.48.4.35.34.png ( 14.01K ) Number of downloads: 0


2012 from Nov-Jan:

 209.87.238.179.48.4.36.44.png ( 14.73K ) Number of downloads: 0


The North Atlantic is quite different but the pattern of warmth through the northwest to the GL looks a bit similar if not quite as intense as this year.

Food for thought anyway, happy to hear more suggestions from you Regg or anyone else.

[JJ Snowlover]

I think those are good anolog years and something to consider for sure. But it does add fear that perhaps this warm winter will catch up with us and we have a cool spring. If we arent going to have a proper winter then I am ready for the warmth

What about 06 - 07? Although I think that was an elnino year. That was a terribly warm and boring winter, but then in April it was cold and we had our biggest snow storm for the year in the middle of the month with like 15 cm of snow..

[bigmt]

I think those are good anolog years and something to consider for sure. But it does add fear that perhaps this warm winter will catch up with us and we have a cool spring. If we arent going to have a proper winter then I am ready for the warmth

Only time will tell. It could be that individual months in those springs were quite cold but others were warm and averaged out it's cooler than normal around the GL area. The much colder than normal temps are in Western Canada for those years.

What about 06 - 07? Although I think that was an elnino year. That was a terribly warm and boring winter, but then in April it was cold and we had our biggest snow storm for the year in the middle of the month with like 15 cm of snow..

Good idea, let's have a look.

Winter 2006-07 500mb pattern:

 2007500mb.png ( 12.54K ) Number of downloads: 0


Air temps:

 2007temp.png ( 11.52K ) Number of downloads: 0


One way it differs from this year is when you break down the individual months. It starts out extremely warm...

December 2006:

 2006dec.png ( 12.88K ) Number of downloads: 0


January 2007:

 2007jan.png ( 13.17K ) Number of downloads: 0


But then a reversal for February (courtesy of a turn to negative AO conditions most likely), something we haven't seen this year:

 2007feb.png ( 13.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


This year did have a turn to -AO but the cold never made it here, instead heading to Europe.

So to get back on track with spring, here's the air temps for Mar-May of 2007:

 2007spring.png ( 14.07K ) Number of downloads: 0


Not too bad really, average to above-average temps. Something interesting is that 2007 had an April snow as you said and so did April 1975, a year from my analog set. Could we see something similar this year in early spring? Stay tuned lol

[Regg]

The point i tried to explain is - from the year you selected ...

1950 was LaNina all year starting strong and weakening
1975 was LaNina all year starting weak and going strong
2000 was an ongoing LaNina wich barely made it to neutral (-0.4) and went back to LaNina.
2002 was neutral going to Nino

So my point is, the ENSO situation was different in each and every year. Based on that, any conclusion can only be anecdotal.

As i said, the situation/impact is very different when going from one state to the other. An increasing LaNina situation will give a very different outcome, than a fading one. Also, a transition year (going from Nina to Neutral and Nino to neutral) is always a very active year (heavy weather) , while going from neutral to other conditions means quiet time - weather wise - in general.

For us in the East, we have similar issues with the AO/NAO. Generally speaking, +NAO means not much storms going our way, while -NAO means we can expect storms going our way. In summer, +NAO means high ridge and calm weather, -NAO means bad weather. Yet it's not always the case because other connections comes into play and can change the equation.

This post has been edited by Regg: Feb 18 2012, 09:50 AM

[bigmt]

The point i tried to explain is - from the year you selected ...

1950 was LaNina all year starting strong and weakening
1975 was LaNina all year starting weak and going strong
2000 was an ongoing LaNina wich barely made it to neutral (-0.4) and went back to LaNina.
2002 was neutral going to Nino

So my point is, the ENSO situation was different in each and every year. Based on that, any conclusion can only be anecdotal.

I chose those years based mostly on the Alaskan height pattern and the subsequent overall warmth in the East, not necessarily ENSO although I did gravitate towards Nina since we're in one now.

I'd love to hear your suggestions too. I'm not saying analog years are the be-all and end-all for forecasting but I just thought it would be one interesting thing to look at.

As i said, the situation/impact is very different when going from one state to the other. An increasing LaNina situation will give a very different outcome, than a fading one. Also, a transition year (going from Nina to Neutral and Nino to neutral) is always a very active year (heavy weather) , while going from neutral to other conditions means quiet time - weather wise - in general.

We can only guess at which state we're headed to this year, which do you think and how do you foresee it affecting the conditions through this year? I'm favouring neutral with a slight warm bias but perhaps not crossing the line into weak Nino territory. My second guess would be another Nina.

[Regg]

I chose those years based mostly on the Alaskan height pattern and the subsequent overall warmth in the East, not necessarily ENSO although I did gravitate towards Nina since we're in one now.

I understand that, but the original question is ''how much do you trust analog years which may or may not always serve a useful purpose?'' and my answer was ''i don't'' as too much stuff comes into account to influence the weather and the climate (on a longer run). The rest was a quick view to explain my own answer. I mean it is very hard to find similar years when you put all conditions.

I'd love to hear your suggestions too. I'm not saying analog years are the be-all and end-all for forecasting but I just thought it would be one interesting thing to look at.
We can only guess at which state we're headed to this year, which do you think and how do you foresee it affecting the conditions through this year? I'm favouring neutral with a slight warm bias but perhaps not crossing the line into weak Nino territory. My second guess would be another Nina.

I Aggree - i did not intend you were saying it was ''be-all / end-all'' - it is interesting to look but have to be very carefull to pull conclusion from it.

As per going neutral, the models are usually very (the CMC ensemble) accurate at predicting the upcoming conditions. So i'm confident it will go neutral to positive neutral later this year.

[bigmt]

I understand that, but the original question is ''how much do you trust analog years which may or may not always serve a useful purpose?'' and my answer was ''i don't'' as too much stuff comes into account to influence the weather and the climate (on a longer run). The rest was a quick view to explain my own answer. I mean it is very hard to find similar years when you put all conditions

Fair enough. To me analogs are another factor to consider in the toolset. They're far from perfect and nearly impossible to find great matches for since every year has it's own factor & quirks, agree with you there.

As per going neutral, the models are usually very (the CMC ensemble) accurate at predicting the upcoming conditions. So i'm confident it will go neutral to positive neutral later this year.

Taking the years where a Nina winter transitioned to neutral/weak Nino (correct me if I'm wrong on these anyone) we get a spring which looks like this in terms of the 500mb pattern:

 neutninospring500mb.png ( 14.04K ) Number of downloads: 0


Air temps Mar-May:

 neutninospringtemp.png ( 13.92K ) Number of downloads: 0


Recognizing that analog years have limits, I thought it might be enlightening to have everyone (or those interested) chime in with their ideas and then sorta come up with a consensus analog forecast from the entire forum which we could use as a tool to roll forward through the year towards next winter and see how well it verifies. The more opinions the better.