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> Spring 2012, Outlooks and Forecasts
bigmt
post Mar 27 2012, 04:22 PM
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A side-by-side comparison of 500mb height anomalies for days 8-10 from the 12z Euro and GFS. The Euro indicates a significantly more robust trough for the east.

Attached File  test8.gif ( 96.04K ) Number of downloads: 3
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JJ Snowlover
post Mar 28 2012, 11:43 AM
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Another day with contrasting temps in Toronto and Ottawa;

Current high in Toronto - +18c
Current high in Ottawa - +5c sad.gif
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TriC
post Mar 28 2012, 11:57 AM
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ya its a great day down in Southwestern Ontario the Sun is out and 21c in my back yard also cut the grass today.

This post has been edited by TriC: Mar 28 2012, 12:00 PM


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Live HD Webcam view from London, Ontario. With Time Lapse Loop.
Click to see current weather conditions.


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bigmt
post Mar 28 2012, 02:36 PM
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A look back at a few select years which showed up numerous times amongst the broken records from the March heatwave and how they evolved through April and the summer months.. Years prior to 1948 are limited to US-oriented maps but one can still get a rough idea of the larger-scale temp distribution.

March 1938:

Attached File  march1938.gif ( 416.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


April 1938:

Attached File  april1938.gif ( 416.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


Summer 1938:

Attached File  summer1938.gif ( 416.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


March 1945:

Attached File  march1945.gif ( 416.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


April 1945:

Attached File  april1945.gif ( 416.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


Summer 1945:

Attached File  summer1945.gif ( 416.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


March 1946:

Attached File  march1946.gif ( 416.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


April 1946:

Attached File  april1946.gif ( 416.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


Summer 1946:

Attached File  summer1946.gif ( 416.67K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Mar 28 2012, 02:39 PM
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March 1953:

Attached File  march1953.png ( 13.49K ) Number of downloads: 0


April 1953:

Attached File  april1953.png ( 13.27K ) Number of downloads: 0


Summer 1953:

Attached File  summer1953.png ( 17.17K ) Number of downloads: 0


March 1979:

Attached File  march1979.png ( 13.78K ) Number of downloads: 0


April 1979:

Attached File  april1979.png ( 16.29K ) Number of downloads: 0


Summer 1979:

Attached File  summer1979.png ( 16.54K ) Number of downloads: 0


March 1987:

Attached File  march1987.png ( 15.83K ) Number of downloads: 0


April 1987:

Attached File  april1987.png ( 15.72K ) Number of downloads: 0


Summer 1987:

Attached File  summer1987.png ( 15.88K ) Number of downloads: 0


March 2000:

Attached File  march2000.png ( 13.63K ) Number of downloads: 0


April 2000:

Attached File  april2000.png ( 13.08K ) Number of downloads: 0


Summer 2000:

Attached File  summer2000.png ( 20.05K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Mar 28 2012, 02:50 PM
Post #186




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Those 4 previous March record-holders together, post-1948:

Attached File  allmarch.png ( 13.31K ) Number of downloads: 0


April:

Attached File  allapril.png ( 12.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


Summer:

Attached File  allsummer.png ( 17.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


Some of the standouts for a pretty stark pattern flip into the summer would be 45, 46 and 2000 so there is some precedent for that to occur. However years like 53 and 87 remained mostly above-average at least in terms of the east as the summer arrived.

Taken as a whole, these analogs would suggest a continuation of the cool pattern for the west into April with a scaled-back warm pattern for the east. There's considerable divergence into the summer.

Also, sorry for the lengthy posts laugh.gif
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TheFrenchman
post Mar 28 2012, 02:54 PM
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Sounds bad...! Almost every year has a cool / below normal summer following a warm march.

I'm worry!

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stuffradio
post Mar 28 2012, 03:52 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 28 2012, 12:50 PM) *
Those 4 previous March record-holders together, post-1948:

Attached File  allmarch.png ( 13.31K ) Number of downloads: 0


April:

Attached File  allapril.png ( 12.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


Summer:

Attached File  allsummer.png ( 17.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


Some of the standouts for a pretty stark pattern flip into the summer would be 45, 46 and 2000 so there is some precedent for that to occur. However years like 53 and 87 remained mostly above-average at least in terms of the east as the summer arrived.

Taken as a whole, these analogs would suggest a continuation of the cool pattern for the west into April with a scaled-back warm pattern for the east. There's considerable divergence into the summer.

Also, sorry for the lengthy posts laugh.gif

Bad news every day.
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nordicWX
post Mar 31 2012, 02:11 AM
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QUOTE(TheFrenchman @ Mar 28 2012, 02:54 PM) *
Sounds bad...! Almost every year has a cool / below normal summer following a warm march.

I'm worry!

A cool summer would be great! Ideally, it would never exceed 20C!

Can't think of any reason to prefer it to be any warmer than that? huh.gif
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bigmt
post Mar 31 2012, 10:01 AM
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Pretty impressive storm clipping Newfoundland.

Attached File  goes_sigwx_vvi_100.jpg ( 154.25K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland...-storm-331.html

QUOTE
March is going out like a lion, with a winter storm warning in effect for the Avalon and Bonavista Peninsulas.

About 10 centimetres of snow fell overnight, with up to 15 centimetres more expected Saturday.

Environment Canada warns that strong winds will cause reduced visibilities and local white-out conditions with blowing snow.

Winds are gusting up to 70 kilometres per hour.

Forecasters say that a low pressure system southeast of the Avalon Peninsula will move very slowly to the northeast Saturday and Sunday.
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TheFrenchman
post Mar 31 2012, 10:19 AM
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QUOTE(nordicWX @ Mar 31 2012, 03:11 AM) *
A cool summer would be great! Ideally, it would never exceed 20C!

Can't think of any reason to prefer it to be any warmer than that? huh.gif



Never exceed 20C ?! heck no!!! 25C is perfect! 20 it's not enough for the pools! tongue.gif
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bigmt
post Apr 1 2012, 06:49 AM
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Yesterday's seasonal updates from the CPC and EC.

April Temps:

Attached File  off_temp_small.gif ( 52.23K ) Number of downloads: 0


April Precip:

Attached File  off_prcp_small.gif ( 48.16K ) Number of downloads: 0


Apr-May-Jun Temps:

Attached File  sfe1t_s.gif ( 89.25K ) Number of downloads: 0


Apr-May-Jun Precip:

Attached File  sfe1p_s.gif ( 82.28K ) Number of downloads: 2
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JJ Snowlover
post Apr 1 2012, 09:11 AM
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Wet snow here this morning and that's no April fools joke!! mad.gif Nice big flakes, Oh April, why do you do this to us every year... rolleyes.gif
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EOsnowmom
post Apr 2 2012, 08:03 AM
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This is where it's going to be interesting. Those historical maps showed warm March/cool summer. EC has now come out and said warmer then normal to be expected.

I wonder if this is going to be a similar situation to last falls dire warnings (from multiple WX agencies) of a nasty winter and it's been the exact opposite?

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tml78
post Apr 2 2012, 03:28 PM
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I'm just wondering when we will have the next batch of warmer temps( 20+ and warmer) here in the GTA??.. I know even +12 as it is currently in Mississauga is above average for this time of year is nice. Do we need to wait till may?? or can we expect something sooner..
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bigmt
post Apr 2 2012, 04:43 PM
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QUOTE(tml78 @ Apr 2 2012, 04:28 PM) *
I'm just wondering when we will have the next batch of warmer temps( 20+ and warmer) here in the GTA??.. I know even +12 as it is currently in Mississauga is above average for this time of year is nice. Do we need to wait till may?? or can we expect something sooner..


It could be a while, check out the 12z Euro ensembles for days 6-10:

Attached File  12zECMWFENS6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 32.49K ) Number of downloads: 0


CPC 8-14 day temp probabilities:

Attached File  814temp.new.gif ( 169.18K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Apr 3 2012, 06:05 AM
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The CFS seasonal forecast looks like it's backing down in terms of the extent of April warmth for the East Coast, Ohio Valley and parts of the Great Lakes as well as shrinking the cool anomalies for the west.

Attached File  usT2mMonInd1.gif ( 30.35K ) Number of downloads: 0


Here's what it showed 10 days ago.

Attached File  usT2mMonInd22.gif ( 30.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


It will be interesting to see what unfolds.
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stuffradio
post Apr 3 2012, 10:38 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Apr 3 2012, 04:05 AM) *
The CFS seasonal forecast looks like it's backing down in terms of the extent of April warmth for the East Coast, Ohio Valley and parts of the Great Lakes as well as shrinking the cool anomalies for the west.

Attached File  usT2mMonInd1.gif ( 30.35K ) Number of downloads: 0


Here's what it showed 10 days ago.

Attached File  usT2mMonInd22.gif ( 30.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


It will be interesting to see what unfolds.

That looks better.
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bigmt
post Apr 4 2012, 04:47 PM
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On the heels of the remarkable March pattern, things are looking quite different for the next while.

6-10 day 850mb temp anomalies for the 12z GFS and Euro:

Attached File  12zGFS6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 33.94K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  12zECMWF6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 40.15K ) Number of downloads: 0


CPC temp probabilities, days 6-10 & 8-14:

Attached File  610temp.new.gif ( 177.63K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  814temp.new.gif ( 160.97K ) Number of downloads: 0
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TheFrenchman
post Apr 4 2012, 05:36 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Apr 4 2012, 05:47 PM) *
On the heels of the remarkable March pattern, things are looking quite different for the next while.

6-10 day 850mb temp anomalies for the 12z GFS and Euro:

Attached File  12zGFS6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 33.94K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  12zECMWF6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 40.15K ) Number of downloads: 0


CPC temp probabilities, days 6-10 & 8-14:

Attached File  610temp.new.gif ( 177.63K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  814temp.new.gif ( 160.97K ) Number of downloads: 0



I'm sure April won't be as warm as the CFS show in the east...

Hey, it looks like a blocking pattern is setting up next week or kind of... Am I right big?! It's not a good sign... We were looking for that all winter long and never happened, but now in april... sad.gif

A storm looks to stall over Quebec next week. wtf!!!
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