 Spring 2012, Outlooks and Forecasts |
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 Mar 27 2012, 04:22 PM
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#181
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 5,846 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784  |
A side-by-side comparison of 500mb height anomalies for days 8-10 from the 12z Euro and GFS. The Euro indicates a significantly more robust trough for the east.
test8.gif ( 96.04K )
Number of downloads: 3 |
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Mar 28 2012, 11:43 AM
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#182
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,119 Joined: 23-November 10 From: Ottawa, Ontario Member No.: 24,422 |
Another day with contrasting temps in Toronto and Ottawa;
Current high in Toronto - +18c Current high in Ottawa - +5c 
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Mar 28 2012, 11:57 AM
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#183
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 872 Joined: 5-December 09 From: London Ontario Member No.: 19,973 |
ya its a great day down in Southwestern Ontario the Sun is out and 21c in my back yard also cut the grass today.
This post has been edited by TriC: Mar 28 2012, 12:00 PM -------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------
Live HD Webcam view from London, Ontario. With Time Lapse Loop. Click to see current weather conditions. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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Mar 28 2012, 02:36 PM
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#184
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,846 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
A look back at a few select years which showed up numerous times amongst the broken records from the March heatwave and how they evolved through April and the summer months.. Years prior to 1948 are limited to US-oriented maps but one can still get a rough idea of the larger-scale temp distribution.
March 1938:
march1938.gif ( 416.67K )
Number of downloads: 0April 1938:
april1938.gif ( 416.67K )
Number of downloads: 0Summer 1938:
summer1938.gif ( 416.67K )
Number of downloads: 0March 1945:
march1945.gif ( 416.67K )
Number of downloads: 0April 1945:
april1945.gif ( 416.67K )
Number of downloads: 0Summer 1945:
summer1945.gif ( 416.67K )
Number of downloads: 0March 1946:
march1946.gif ( 416.67K )
Number of downloads: 0April 1946:
april1946.gif ( 416.67K )
Number of downloads: 0Summer 1946:
summer1946.gif ( 416.67K )
Number of downloads: 0 |
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Mar 28 2012, 02:39 PM
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#185
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,846 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
March 1953:
march1953.png ( 13.49K )
Number of downloads: 0April 1953:
april1953.png ( 13.27K )
Number of downloads: 0Summer 1953:
summer1953.png ( 17.17K )
Number of downloads: 0March 1979:
march1979.png ( 13.78K )
Number of downloads: 0April 1979:
april1979.png ( 16.29K )
Number of downloads: 0Summer 1979:
summer1979.png ( 16.54K )
Number of downloads: 0March 1987:
march1987.png ( 15.83K )
Number of downloads: 0April 1987:
april1987.png ( 15.72K )
Number of downloads: 0Summer 1987:
summer1987.png ( 15.88K )
Number of downloads: 0March 2000:
march2000.png ( 13.63K )
Number of downloads: 0April 2000:
april2000.png ( 13.08K )
Number of downloads: 0Summer 2000:
summer2000.png ( 20.05K )
Number of downloads: 0 |
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Mar 28 2012, 02:50 PM
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#186
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,846 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
Those 4 previous March record-holders together, post-1948:
allmarch.png ( 13.31K )
Number of downloads: 0April:
allapril.png ( 12.95K )
Number of downloads: 0Summer:
allsummer.png ( 17.5K )
Number of downloads: 0Some of the standouts for a pretty stark pattern flip into the summer would be 45, 46 and 2000 so there is some precedent for that to occur. However years like 53 and 87 remained mostly above-average at least in terms of the east as the summer arrived. Taken as a whole, these analogs would suggest a continuation of the cool pattern for the west into April with a scaled-back warm pattern for the east. There's considerable divergence into the summer. Also, sorry for the lengthy posts 
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Mar 28 2012, 02:54 PM
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#187
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 128 Joined: 4-December 09 Member No.: 19,969 |
Sounds bad...! Almost every year has a cool / below normal summer following a warm march.
I'm worry! |
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Mar 28 2012, 03:52 PM
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#188
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 828 Joined: 12-September 08 From: SW BC, Canada Member No.: 15,716 |
QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 28 2012, 12:50 PM)  Those 4 previous March record-holders together, post-1948:
allmarch.png ( 13.31K )
Number of downloads: 0April:
allapril.png ( 12.95K )
Number of downloads: 0Summer:
allsummer.png ( 17.5K )
Number of downloads: 0Some of the standouts for a pretty stark pattern flip into the summer would be 45, 46 and 2000 so there is some precedent for that to occur. However years like 53 and 87 remained mostly above-average at least in terms of the east as the summer arrived. Taken as a whole, these analogs would suggest a continuation of the cool pattern for the west into April with a scaled-back warm pattern for the east. There's considerable divergence into the summer. Also, sorry for the lengthy posts Bad news every day. |
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Mar 31 2012, 02:11 AM
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#189
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 124 Joined: 8-December 10 Member No.: 24,574 |
QUOTE(TheFrenchman @ Mar 28 2012, 02:54 PM) Sounds bad...! Almost every year has a cool / below normal summer following a warm march. I'm worry! A cool summer would be great! Ideally, it would never exceed 20°C! Can't think of any reason to prefer it to be any warmer than that? 
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Mar 31 2012, 10:01 AM
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#190
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,846 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
Pretty impressive storm clipping Newfoundland.
goes_sigwx_vvi_100.jpg ( 154.25K )
Number of downloads: 0http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland...-storm-331.html QUOTE March is going out like a lion, with a winter storm warning in effect for the Avalon and Bonavista Peninsulas.
About 10 centimetres of snow fell overnight, with up to 15 centimetres more expected Saturday. Environment Canada warns that strong winds will cause reduced visibilities and local white-out conditions with blowing snow. Winds are gusting up to 70 kilometres per hour. Forecasters say that a low pressure system southeast of the Avalon Peninsula will move very slowly to the northeast Saturday and Sunday. |
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Mar 31 2012, 10:19 AM
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#191
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 128 Joined: 4-December 09 Member No.: 19,969 |
QUOTE(nordicWX @ Mar 31 2012, 03:11 AM) A cool summer would be great! Ideally, it would never exceed 20°C! Can't think of any reason to prefer it to be any warmer than that? Never exceed 20C ?! heck no!!! 25C is perfect! 20 it's not enough for the pools!  |
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Apr 1 2012, 06:49 AM
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#192
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,846 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
Yesterday's seasonal updates from the CPC and EC.
April Temps:
off_temp_small.gif ( 52.23K )
Number of downloads: 0April Precip:
off_prcp_small.gif ( 48.16K )
Number of downloads: 0Apr-May-Jun Temps:
sfe1t_s.gif ( 89.25K )
Number of downloads: 0Apr-May-Jun Precip:
sfe1p_s.gif ( 82.28K )
Number of downloads: 2 |
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Apr 1 2012, 09:11 AM
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#193
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,119 Joined: 23-November 10 From: Ottawa, Ontario Member No.: 24,422 |
Wet snow here this morning and that's no April fools joke!!
 Nice big flakes, Oh April, why do you do this to us every year... 
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Apr 2 2012, 08:03 AM
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#194
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 508 Joined: 30-January 09 From: south of Ottawa, Ontario Member No.: 17,244 |
This is where it's going to be interesting. Those historical maps showed warm March/cool summer. EC has now come out and said warmer then normal to be expected.
I wonder if this is going to be a similar situation to last falls dire warnings (from multiple WX agencies) of a nasty winter and it's been the exact opposite? |
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Apr 2 2012, 03:28 PM
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#195
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 506 Joined: 10-December 10 Member No.: 24,599 |
I'm just wondering when we will have the next batch of warmer temps( 20+ and warmer) here in the GTA??.. I know even +12 as it is currently in Mississauga is above average for this time of year is nice. Do we need to wait till may?? or can we expect something sooner..
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Apr 2 2012, 04:43 PM
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#196
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,846 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
QUOTE(tml78 @ Apr 2 2012, 04:28 PM) I'm just wondering when we will have the next batch of warmer temps( 20+ and warmer) here in the GTA??.. I know even +12 as it is currently in Mississauga is above average for this time of year is nice. Do we need to wait till may?? or can we expect something sooner.. It could be a while, check out the 12z Euro ensembles for days 6-10:
12zECMWFENS6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 32.49K )
Number of downloads: 0CPC 8-14 day temp probabilities:
814temp.new.gif ( 169.18K )
Number of downloads: 0 |
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Apr 3 2012, 06:05 AM
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#197
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,846 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
The CFS seasonal forecast looks like it's backing down in terms of the extent of April warmth for the East Coast, Ohio Valley and parts of the Great Lakes as well as shrinking the cool anomalies for the west.
usT2mMonInd1.gif ( 30.35K )
Number of downloads: 0Here's what it showed 10 days ago.
usT2mMonInd22.gif ( 30.67K )
Number of downloads: 0It will be interesting to see what unfolds. |
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Apr 3 2012, 10:38 AM
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#198
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 828 Joined: 12-September 08 From: SW BC, Canada Member No.: 15,716 |
QUOTE(bigmt @ Apr 3 2012, 04:05 AM) The CFS seasonal forecast looks like it's backing down in terms of the extent of April warmth for the East Coast, Ohio Valley and parts of the Great Lakes as well as shrinking the cool anomalies for the west.
usT2mMonInd1.gif ( 30.35K )
Number of downloads: 0Here's what it showed 10 days ago.
usT2mMonInd22.gif ( 30.67K )
Number of downloads: 0It will be interesting to see what unfolds. That looks better. |
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Apr 4 2012, 04:47 PM
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#199
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,846 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
On the heels of the remarkable March pattern, things are looking quite different for the next while.
6-10 day 850mb temp anomalies for the 12z GFS and Euro:
12zGFS6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 33.94K )
Number of downloads: 0
12zECMWF6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 40.15K )
Number of downloads: 0CPC temp probabilities, days 6-10 & 8-14:
610temp.new.gif ( 177.63K )
Number of downloads: 0
814temp.new.gif ( 160.97K )
Number of downloads: 0 |
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Apr 4 2012, 05:36 PM
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#200
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 128 Joined: 4-December 09 Member No.: 19,969 |
QUOTE(bigmt @ Apr 4 2012, 05:47 PM) On the heels of the remarkable March pattern, things are looking quite different for the next while. 6-10 day 850mb temp anomalies for the 12z GFS and Euro:
12zGFS6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 33.94K )
Number of downloads: 0
12zECMWF6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 40.15K )
Number of downloads: 0CPC temp probabilities, days 6-10 & 8-14:
610temp.new.gif ( 177.63K )
Number of downloads: 0
814temp.new.gif ( 160.97K )
Number of downloads: 0I'm sure April won't be as warm as the CFS show in the east... Hey, it looks like a blocking pattern is setting up next week or kind of... Am I right big?! It's not a good sign... We were looking for that all winter long and never happened, but now in april... A storm looks to stall over Quebec next week. wtf!!! |
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