Spring 2012, Outlooks and Forecasts Options

[Regg]

Taking the years where a Nina winter transitioned to neutral/weak Nino (correct me if I'm wrong on these anyone) we get a spring which looks like this in terms of the 500mb pattern:

[attachment=156786:neutnino...ing500mb.png]

Yes that's the general pattern - with very definite zones. The issue with very definite zones are the short waves escaping/emerging from one area to the other. They don't show up much when looking at an entire season as they are very short live - but they are the sources of heavy weather during that period of time.

My personal theory is .. It is more apparent during the transitional years (going to neutral), and not the case (or fewer) when the transition is from getting out of neutral.

If you look on the east coast a similar situation could be the trigger for heavy coastal storms (weather bombs) that are usual during spring season (feb to april) - yet in that case it is not triggered by short waves but more about the enhanced circulation of very warm air forced against an area still cold along the east coast. But, on that side of the continent - the NAO/AO situation can downplay or enhance the conditions.

This post has been edited by Regg: Feb 18 2012, 01:01 PM

[bigmt]

Yes that's the general pattern - with very definite zones. The issue with very definite zones are the short waves escaping/emerging from one area to the other. They don't show up much when looking at an entire season as they are very short live - but they are the sources of heavy weather during that period of time.

The most we can hope for is to get some handle on the overall idea of the planetary longwave pattern with this exercise and then watch individual shortwaves as they develop since as you said they are so short-lived.

My personal theory is .. It is more apparent during the transitional years (going to neutral), and not the case (or fewer) when the transition is from getting out of neutral.

So if we believe that we're going to transition to neutral ENSO through the spring (and this seems likely ATM), then you foresee enhanced storminess for the East? Any thoughts on the situation for Ontario and Quebec? Always love hearing other's ideas

Back to spring, if we take my original 4 analog years and JJ's suggestion of 06-07 and Regg's idea's of Nina-to-neutral/weak Nino years we get a Mar-May pattern which looks like this at 500mb:

 209.87.238.179.48.12.45.16.png ( 13.37K ) Number of downloads: 0


Air temps:

 209.87.238.179.48.12.45.39.png ( 14.11K ) Number of downloads: 0


There's a limit of 16 analogs in total so if there are too many ideas we'll have to start eliminating some years. Hopefully more people have some thoughts and don't find this too boring lol

[Regg]

Actually, the transition should be about a month to two month later than last year. So it's not that well definite as we might think. We'll see in a few if it does have an impact or not.

[bigmt]

To recap, based on analog years we have pretty definitive signals for a cool western Canada and perhaps average to below-average temps extending into the GL when all of the springs are averaged together.

However, let's look at a few of those individual years which could upset things when singled out.

Mar-May 1985 temps, one of the years based on Regg's projection that we'll transition into ENSO-neutral through this year:

 spring1985.png ( 13.96K ) Number of downloads: 0


Looks eerily similar to the pattern that's unfolded through this winter actually.

Mar-May 2000, one of my preferred analogs for a bad Nina winter:

 spring2000.png ( 13.87K ) Number of downloads: 0


Widespread warmth throughout nearly the entire USA and central Canada.

Mar-May 2007, JJ's thoughts about a dud winter:

 spring2007.png ( 14.07K ) Number of downloads: 0


Also toasty through the midsection of North America.

So despite the fact that when taken together the analog years equal a cool solution (especially for the west) we can't really be assured that it will unfold that way because there are multiple signals of overall warmth as well. Mild spells have won the war for the bulk of the winter and even extending back through the last couple of years, will that pattern continue? Any thoughts would be great, expanding the scope of ideas.

[bigmt]

The US subforum has a poll dealing with winter 2001-02 vs 2011-12 in terms of futility, thought I'd expand on that in terms of more possibilities for this spring. The poll is here:

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=28958

The winter of 01-02 is notorious for it's widespread warmth. Here's a look:

 209.87.238.179.50.10.26.28.png ( 12.9K ) Number of downloads: 0


Take a look at spring surface temps, cold in the west:

 209.87.238.179.50.10.27.19.png ( 13.08K ) Number of downloads: 0


Here's a recent twitter conversation between Brett and stuffradio (gonna assume it's the same person as our very own topic creator).

http://twitter.com/#!/BrettAWX

Brett:
Widespread, sustained cold coming into western Canada starting this weekend. Also snow!

stuffradio:
@BrettAWX How long? I want Spring here. The East can have the cold

Brett:
@stuffradio Below normal temps for at least a week, worst of cold early next week.

BTW, I'll take some of that cold you're offering up stuffradio if it can salvage something from the last gasps of this winter!

Finally, a look at the 00z GFS ensemble 850mb temp pattern for days 6-10 which shows this upcoming cold period for western Canada:

 00zENS6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 31.53K ) Number of downloads: 0


Now go back and compare that to the spring temperature composite I showed for 2002. Hmm, do you think it looks sorta similar?

This post has been edited by bigmt: Feb 20 2012, 12:46 PM

[stuffradio]

The US subforum has a poll dealing with winter 2001-02 vs 2011-12 in terms of futility, thought I'd expand on that in terms of more possibilities for this spring. The poll is here:

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=28958

The winter of 01-02 is notorious for it's widespread warmth. Here's a look:

 209.87.238.179.50.10.26.28.png ( 12.9K ) Number of downloads: 0


Take a look at spring surface temps, cold in the west:

 209.87.238.179.50.10.27.19.png ( 13.08K ) Number of downloads: 0


Here's a recent twitter conversation between Brett and stuffradio (gonna assume it's the same person as our very own topic creator).

http://twitter.com/#!/BrettAWX
BTW, I'll take some of that cold you're offering up stuffradio if it can salvage something from the last gasps of this winter!

Finally, a look at the 00z GFS ensemble 850mb temp pattern for days 6-10 which shows this upcoming cold period for western Canada:

 00zENS6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 31.53K ) Number of downloads: 0


Now go back and compare that to the spring temperature composite I showed for 2002. Hmm, do you think it looks sorta similar?

Sold!

[Louielou]

Sold!

so are we really getting snow??? I can't see it!?

[bigmt]

so are we really getting snow??? I can't see it!?

A colder period is coming, but how much staying power it has is murky. With cold can come snow opportunities but this too is far from certain.

[Removed_Member_thehammer_*]

Long range models are looking awesome by March10-13 range....could be a great start to a warm spring.

[bigmt]

GFS ensembles for day 11-15 show the return of cold air to Alaska and a mild NA:

 12zENS11_15day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 32.01K ) Number of downloads: 0


The latest CFS v2 forecast is very toasty for March in the east while cold in the west and seasonable warm for April but still cool in the west and Atlantic Canada:

 usT2mMon.gif ( 31.82K ) Number of downloads: 0


Singling out March with our analog years we get a bit of a mixed bag.

March 1975:

 209.87.238.179.55.10.41.18.png ( 15.91K ) Number of downloads: 0


March 1985:

 209.87.238.179.55.10.44.54.png ( 13.03K ) Number of downloads: 0


March 2000:

 209.87.238.179.55.10.44.39.png ( 13.18K ) Number of downloads: 0


March 2002:

 209.87.238.179.55.10.44.23.png ( 13.58K ) Number of downloads: 0


Out of those I'd probably guess March 1985 to generally fit the best with our upcoming one, albeit not perfectly obviously.

The teleconnection ensemble forecasts paint a warm picture as well:

 nao.sprd2.gif ( 6.48K ) Number of downloads: 0


 ao.sprd2.gif ( 7.2K ) Number of downloads: 0


All factors considered for March 2012 I'd guess at a warm pattern for the east with the occasional brief cold shot (much like the winter as a whole really) and an average to below-average temp departure for the west where a cooler pattern will most likely prevail for the most part. Just my two cents as things look now.

[stuffradio]

GFS ensembles for day 11-15 show the return of cold air to Alaska and a mild NA:

 12zENS11_15day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 32.01K ) Number of downloads: 0


The latest CFS v2 forecast is very toasty for March in the east while cold in the west and seasonable warm for April but still cool in the west and Atlantic Canada:

 usT2mMon.gif ( 31.82K ) Number of downloads: 0


Singling out March with our analog years we get a bit of a mixed bag.

March 1975:

 209.87.238.179.55.10.41.18.png ( 15.91K ) Number of downloads: 0


March 1985:

 209.87.238.179.55.10.44.54.png ( 13.03K ) Number of downloads: 0


March 2000:

 209.87.238.179.55.10.44.39.png ( 13.18K ) Number of downloads: 0


March 2002:

 209.87.238.179.55.10.44.23.png ( 13.58K ) Number of downloads: 0


Out of those I'd probably guess March 1985 to generally fit the best with our upcoming one, albeit not perfectly obviously.

The teleconnection ensemble forecasts paint a warm picture as well:

 nao.sprd2.gif ( 6.48K ) Number of downloads: 0


 ao.sprd2.gif ( 7.2K ) Number of downloads: 0


All factors considered for March 2012 I'd guess at a warm pattern for the east with the occasional brief cold shot (much like the winter as a whole really) and an average to below-average temp departure for the west where a cooler pattern will most likely prevail for the most part. Just my two cents as things look now.

I dislike MAM. I like JJA. I hope we get a bit of JJA in MAM. AMJ was more neutral before.

[an uncanny otter]

I'm hearing some talk about a more active than normal severe weather season for the Great Lakes. As much as I hope this is true, is there any basis in this other than a warmer-than-normal spring? I have heard that a +AO will create outbreaks in a more northerly location than last year. (I really need to buff up my severe weather knowledge.)

Severe weather down here doesn't usually get going until mid-April. It's been a couple of years since we've had a good March outbreak in southwestern Ontario.

This post has been edited by an uncanny otter: Feb 25 2012, 08:25 PM

[bigmt]

There's a virtually untouched Gulf of Mexico coupled with a La Nina, two components which would likely equal an intense severe weather season for somebody. Whether it extends northwards enough to significantly affect Ontario remains to be seen but I'd guess that the odds are greater-than-normal that it does, at least for SW ON. The only ingredient that could be missing is cold arimasses to clash with the expected warmth in the east since that's been largely missing for the bulk of the winter. We'll have to see how the pattern unfolds going forward.

I doubt very highly if it will be as active as last year (thinking back to the amazing tornado outbreaks in the USA) but in terms of violent weather it only takes one event to cause destruction and heartbreak so the overall numbers don't always tell the whole story.

I'm far from a severe weather expert though so this isn't much more than my personal thoughts and they probably don't amount to much.

[an uncanny otter]

I'm far from a severe weather expert though so this isn't much more than my personal thoughts and they probably don't amount to much.

It's ten times more than I know about the subject. I mostly just pretend to know what I'm talking about when I post here. Mostly I just like looking at pretty colours on the models.

[bigmt]

It's ten times more than I know about the subject. I mostly just pretend to know what I'm talking about when I post here. Mostly I just like looking at pretty colours on the models.

LoL, that's good fun too!

One of the main reasons for enhanced severe weather during La Nina is the jet stream configuration which typically dips towards the Gulf of Mexico and then up through the Great Lakes.

 NinaImpacts.jpg ( 84.83K ) Number of downloads: 0


This year the Gulf is quite toasty since there's been few storms to disturb it, which means an ample supply of warm humid air to fuel thunderstorms.

 anoma.2.23.2012.gif ( 63.56K ) Number of downloads: 1


The only real evidence I have to suggest that areas of ON could face a higher risk than usual is the fact that we've seen many storms cut to the upper GL's and subsequently place us into the warm sector. Whether that continues to be the case with future storms is yet to be determined of course, but it's definitely possible. I'm unsure about the connection between a +AO and spring severe weather outside of the added warmth it would likely bring.

[an uncanny otter]

Friday/Saturday is looking interesting for some thunderstorms in SWON.

[bigmt]

00z ECMWF ensembles look very warm in the 6-10 day period:

 00zECMWFENS6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 36.12K ) Number of downloads: 2


Won't have to wait long for some spring weather.

[JJ Snowlover]

Happy Meteorological Spring everyone March is in like a lion here in E.ONT, so I look forward to hopefully some warm and calm weather for the end of the month.

Looks like next week and the week of 12th will be fairly warm according to TWN 14 day. Doesn't quite look like it will be March 2010 again but I'll take it

[bigmt]

12z operational GFS says it's an all-out torch by the middle of next week. The Atlantic high pressure area stays pretty well in place, pumping in warm air from the south. Goodbye winter...

Hour 153:

 gfs_namer_153_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 66.39K ) Number of downloads: 3


Hour 168:

 gfs_namer_168_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 62.38K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 186:

 gfs_namer_186_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 65.73K ) Number of downloads: 0

[travis3000]

I'm hoping for a very stormy spring and summer. We didn't get too many thunderstorms last year which was a disappointment. Now with barely any snowstorms this winter I just can't take this boring weather pattern! Here's hoping for a TON of severe thunderstorm warnings this season