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> Spring 2012, Outlooks and Forecasts
EOsnowmom
post Apr 17 2012, 09:22 AM
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That looks like a lot of rain! We can only hope.
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ottawasnowstorm
post Apr 17 2012, 10:43 AM
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28.4C in Ottawa yesterday (monday, april 16). Our hottest temperature yet this year.

Considering the record heat back in march and now what we got yesterday, I have no doubt that we are going to have some very hot days this summer in Ottawa and the rest of eastern and southern ontario. And I'm off for all of july and august!
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Regg
post Apr 17 2012, 10:04 PM
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Hey , what's happening .. No one is talking about the possible snow storm for this weekend in the east ??

I know , i know, it's late - and why all of a sudden the models could be right about it. Well, i have big doubts as well yet the Euro and GFS are almost in synch for this weekend - a two stroke shot giving up to 30 cm of snow in Qubec and the maritimes - maybe more.

Talk about an upset after the last two days of record warm temps.
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bigmt
post Apr 18 2012, 06:21 AM
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QUOTE(Regg @ Apr 17 2012, 11:04 PM) *
Hey , what's happening .. No one is talking about the possible snow storm for this weekend in the east ??

I know , i know, it's late - and why all of a sudden the models could be right about it. Well, i have big doubts as well yet the Euro and GFS are almost in synch for this weekend - a two stroke shot giving up to 30 cm of snow in Qubec and the maritimes - maybe more.

Talk about an upset after the last two days of record warm temps.


It's certainly worth taking a look at, here's some images from the 06z NAM.

Precip type @ hour 54:

Attached File  USA_PTYPE_sfc_054.gif ( 17.04K ) Number of downloads: 0


Precip type @ hour 78:

Attached File  USA_PTYPE_sfc_078.gif ( 16.92K ) Number of downloads: 0


Total snowfall for all 84 hours of the run:

Attached File  USA_ASNOWPER_sfc_084.gif ( 26.98K ) Number of downloads: 0


Rounds of persistent moisture are on the way through the weekend and into next week, whether it falls in the form of rain or snow. Quite a pattern change from the dominant warmth and dry weather lately.

HPC 5-day precip:

Attached File  p120i12.gif ( 35.2K ) Number of downloads: 0


HPC snow probability map for day 3, 4+ inches:

Attached File  day3_psnow_gt_04.gif ( 16.59K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by bigmt: Apr 18 2012, 06:21 AM
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winter48
post Apr 18 2012, 07:03 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Apr 18 2012, 07:21 AM) *
It's certainly worth taking a look at, here's some images from the 06z NAM.

Precip type @ hour 54:

Attached File  USA_PTYPE_sfc_054.gif ( 17.04K ) Number of downloads: 0


Precip type @ hour 78:

Attached File  USA_PTYPE_sfc_078.gif ( 16.92K ) Number of downloads: 0


Total snowfall for all 84 hours of the run:

Attached File  USA_ASNOWPER_sfc_084.gif ( 26.98K ) Number of downloads: 0


Rounds of persistent moisture are on the way through the weekend and into next week, whether it falls in the form of rain or snow. Quite a pattern change from the dominant warmth and dry weather lately.

HPC 5-day precip:

Attached File  p120i12.gif ( 35.2K ) Number of downloads: 0


HPC snow probability map for day 3, 4+ inches:

Attached File  day3_psnow_gt_04.gif ( 16.59K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hey bigmt! Just wanted to say thanks for continuing to take the time to post on here. I usually don't visit after winter but have been knowing that you post great info! Your updates are much appreciated!
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JJ Snowlover
post Apr 18 2012, 09:31 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Apr 18 2012, 06:21 AM) *
It's certainly worth taking a look at, here's some images from the 06z NAM.

Rounds of persistent moisture are on the way through the weekend and into next week, whether it falls in the form of rain or snow. Quite a pattern change from the dominant warmth and dry weather lately.


TWN was certain some snow was going to fall in the Ottawa region the last couple days, but as of today, both TWN and EC are predicting slightly warmer temps, but still rain, which we need, but I am kind of happy about not getting snow. It's way too late in the season for that !!!

And this flip flop temps are getting annoying, 29c one day, 11c the next, then back to 21c, then down to 11c again, it's been doing that all winter. Just pick a temp and stay near it would you mother nature tongue.gif
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TheFrenchman
post Apr 18 2012, 10:03 AM
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QUOTE(winter48 @ Apr 18 2012, 08:03 AM) *
Hey bigmt! Just wanted to say thanks for continuing to take the time to post on here. I usually don't visit after winter but have been knowing that you post great info! Your updates are much appreciated!



Great post! I also want to thanks bigmt for his posts!! It's always great to read you and to see those maps you put here! wow!! Keep up the good work wink.gif


Seeing the models today... it looks like a week of cloudy/rainy/cool conditions again starting friday ? sad.gif

Is this what we call paying the price big time for the early heat we had ?! ggrrrr!
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ottawasnowstorm
post Apr 18 2012, 12:40 PM
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QUOTE(Regg @ Apr 17 2012, 11:04 PM) *
Hey , what's happening .. No one is talking about the possible snow storm for this weekend in the east ??

I know , i know, it's late - and why all of a sudden the models could be right about it. Well, i have big doubts as well yet the Euro and GFS are almost in synch for this weekend - a two stroke shot giving up to 30 cm of snow in Qubec and the maritimes - maybe more.

Talk about an upset after the last two days of record warm temps.

I was thinking the same thing about the heat on monday, nobody seemed to be talking about it even though places like Ottawa had their hottest day this year at close to 30C. That's rare for mid april.
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bigmt
post Apr 18 2012, 08:43 PM
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QUOTE(ottawasnowstorm @ Apr 18 2012, 01:40 PM) *
I was thinking the same thing about the heat on monday, nobody seemed to be talking about it even though places like Ottawa had their hottest day this year at close to 30C. That's rare for mid april.


It was definitely noteworthy, but I think psychologically it didn't bear the same weight as the blistering March heat which was even more unusual and much longer in duration. It was very close to record-breaking temps for April 16th in Ottawa but just a bit shy.

QUOTE(winter48 @ Apr 18 2012, 08:03 AM) *
Hey bigmt! Just wanted to say thanks for continuing to take the time to post on here. I usually don't visit after winter but have been knowing that you post great info! Your updates are much appreciated!


QUOTE(TheFrenchman @ Apr 18 2012, 11:03 AM) *
Great post! I also want to thanks bigmt for his posts!! It's always great to read you and to see those maps you put here! wow!! Keep up the good work wink.gif
Seeing the models today... it looks like a week of cloudy/rainy/cool conditions again starting friday ? sad.gif


I'm happy to contribute and ponder ideas with everyone, thanks! I enjoy all kinds of weather and love having like-minded people to discuss it with smile.gif

And yes it does looks like roughly a week of unsettled conditions incoming, check out the 500mb height anomalies at hour 144 from the 12z Euro showing quite a robust trough in the east:

Attached File  12zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA144.gif ( 55.96K ) Number of downloads: 0


QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Apr 18 2012, 10:31 AM) *
TWN was certain some snow was going to fall in the Ottawa region the last couple days, but as of today, both TWN and EC are predicting slightly warmer temps, but still rain, which we need, but I am kind of happy about not getting snow. It's way too late in the season for that !!!

And this flip flop temps are getting annoying, 29c one day, 11c the next, then back to 21c, then down to 11c again, it's been doing that all winter. Just pick a temp and stay near it would you mother nature tongue.gif


It wasn't out of the question for some flakes to be flying based on various model's interpretation of events but we should dodge that bullet and wind up with (welcome) plain ol' rain.

Here's some images showing the continued rainfall deficiency in Eastern Canada over the past 30 days and 4-panel winter weather maps (4-inch, 8-inch, 12-inch snow & ice accumulation) for both east and west over day 2 and 3.

Attached File  drought.jpg ( 263.97K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  day2_composite.gif ( 40.2K ) Number of downloads: 2


Attached File  day3_composite.gif ( 38.49K ) Number of downloads: 2
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ottawasnowstorm
post Apr 19 2012, 11:20 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Apr 18 2012, 09:43 PM) *
It was definitely noteworthy, but I think psychologically it didn't bear the same weight as the blistering March heat which was even more unusual and much longer in duration. It was very close to record-breaking temps for April 16th in Ottawa but just a bit shy.




That is absolutely true that it did not bear the same weight as the march heatwave we had but that heatwave may also be a once-in-a-lifetime event for that time of year. I would hope that that would not mean other temperature extremes that may not be as extreme as that march heat will be missed by us here at accuweather. I know I sure didn't miss it and being close to record setting and 16-17 degrees above the normal temperature is very noteworthy and needs us to think what may transpire this summer now that we have had two extreme and unusual heat spells this spring.

And worth the note, next weekend may be similar to that march heat and this past heat on monday (and perhaps even hotter) so it looks like more temperature extremes may be on the way. It seems that heat that is building down in the southwest of the US for this weekend will be heading our way for next weekend (perhaps 4-5 days worth of heat).

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bigmt
post Apr 19 2012, 12:14 PM
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QUOTE(ottawasnowstorm @ Apr 19 2012, 12:20 PM) *
That is absolutely true that it did not bear the same weight as the march heatwave we had but that heatwave may also be a once-in-a-lifetime event for that time of year. I would hope that that would not mean other temperature extremes that may not be as extreme as that march heat will be missed by us here at accuweather. I know I sure didn't miss it and being close to record setting and 16-17 degrees above the normal temperature is very noteworthy and needs us to think what may transpire this summer now that we have had two extreme and unusual heat spells this spring.


Yeah, I didn't intentionally neglect to mention the warmth on Monday. One of the nice thing about forums is we can revisit events and posts in case something does get missed and flesh it out some more.

Looks like the core of above-normal temperatures is going to be focused in portions of the west for the next few days (specifically the western USA but also into some areas of Western Canada as well). Here's a look at 850mb temp anomalies for days 1-5 from the GFS:

Attached File  00zGFS1_5day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 35.04K ) Number of downloads: 0


For ON and QUE here's TWN's rainfall map into tomorrow:

Attached File  ONRainApril18_art_7_7511.jpg ( 50.57K ) Number of downloads: 0


Also a look at the updated May outlook from the CPC.

Attached File  off_temp_small.gif ( 47.93K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  off_prcp_small.gif ( 38.81K ) Number of downloads: 0


The drying trend for British Columbia is supported by the CFS model:

Attached File  usPrecMonInd1.gif ( 33.61K ) Number of downloads: 0


I'm sure posters from that region will enjoy such an outcome so hopefully it pans out.
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stuffradio
post Apr 19 2012, 12:21 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Apr 19 2012, 10:14 AM) *
Yeah, I didn't intentionally neglect to mention the warmth on Monday. One of the nice thing about forums is we can revisit events and posts in case something does get missed and flesh it out some more.

Looks like the core of above-normal temperatures is going to be focused in portions of the west for the next few days (specifically the western USA but also into some areas of Western Canada as well). Here's a look at 850mb temp anomalies for days 1-5 from the GFS:

Attached File  00zGFS1_5day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 35.04K ) Number of downloads: 0


For ON and QUE here's TWN's rainfall map into tomorrow:

Attached File  ONRainApril18_art_7_7511.jpg ( 50.57K ) Number of downloads: 0


Also a look at the updated May outlook from the CPC.

Attached File  off_temp_small.gif ( 47.93K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  off_prcp_small.gif ( 38.81K ) Number of downloads: 0


The drying trend for British Columbia is supported by the CFS model:

Attached File  usPrecMonInd1.gif ( 33.61K ) Number of downloads: 0


I'm sure posters from that region will enjoy such an outcome so hopefully it pans out.

That's for sure. I'm going to start my pumpkins the week after next. I just hope the heat follows, as I'm trying to grow 1000+ lb pumpkins. smile.gif
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travis3000
post Apr 19 2012, 06:54 PM
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Greater Sudbury and vicinity
3:34 PM EDT Thursday 19 April 2012
Snowfall warning for
Greater Sudbury and vicinity issued

Heavy snow expected Friday.

A developing low pressure system over the central plains of the U.S. will track over Lake Huron on Friday and reach Western Quebec by Saturday morning.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?on31

This system is expected to bring a significant snowfall to the Nickel Belt and Ni*bleep*ing region on Friday. Snow in advance of this low will begin overnight with snowfall amounts near 15 cm expected for the Elliot Lake area while the Ni*bleep*ing region will likely see between 15 and 25 cm by late Friday.

The snow is forecast to taper off in western regions late Friday afternoon and near the Quebec border late Friday evening.


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Track winter storms with expert analysis on either one of my two blogs:

http://scglweather.blogspot.com/

Exclusive Southern Ontario Weather Blog

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an uncanny otter
post Apr 19 2012, 09:14 PM
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11C for an overnight low, then 23C for a high on Friday before cooling down to a rainy/cloudy weekend. I'll take it.

Weather's been pretty boring... hoping for an active severe weather season in May and June like we've had in 2010 and 2011. I would be really disappointed in a summer 2009 repeat.
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stuffradio
post Apr 19 2012, 11:55 PM
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QUOTE(an uncanny otter @ Apr 19 2012, 07:14 PM) *
11C for an overnight low, then 23C for a high on Friday before cooling down to a rainy/cloudy weekend. I'll take it.

Weather's been pretty boring... hoping for an active severe weather season in May and June like we've had in 2010 and 2011. I would be really disappointed in a summer 2009 repeat.

2009 gave me a lot of heat and sun. I'll take it.
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Regg
post Apr 20 2012, 12:06 AM
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Yep, first system should pound Ontario north and Qc middle quite heavy .. The second system (if we ever get a clear track for it) should be a near coastal system (almost typical northeaster with large neg. tilt). For the southern region in QC, the second system could be a surprising snow accumulation in some regions.

Even Montreal could get some flurries (i'm not expecting accumulation that far south, but it the mountains north of the St-Lawrence valley and in the Eastern Township, it could be a big load of it.

As per the warm days.. It's warm, but is is very dry. Monday was almost 30c here, but less than 30% of humidity, not a typical st-lawrence river coastal situation - usually it's always humid here. Also it's the second big temperature change we got (march super warm week and now this week), and with such drastic change in temps, we could expect heavy weather (violent) - yet none of it happened this year in the east (or very little thunderstorms). That too is unusual, i'm use to get heavy weather when there's a large air mass change, not this year so far.

This post has been edited by Regg: Apr 20 2012, 12:07 AM
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stuffradio
post Apr 20 2012, 12:17 AM
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I'm in the midst of a very wet and heavy system. Supposed to clear out overnight though and give us a somewhat nice day tomorrow.
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JJ Snowlover
post Apr 20 2012, 05:09 AM
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Monday looks like a good chance of accumulating snow for Ottawa. What do you think guys?, bigmt? EC says only +2c and snow or rain? sad.gif
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bigmt
post Apr 20 2012, 05:28 AM
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QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Apr 20 2012, 06:09 AM) *
Monday looks like a good chance of accumulating snow for Ottawa. What do you think guys?, bigmt? EC says only +2c and snow or rain? sad.gif


It looks intriguing based on the latest guidance, I'm gonna start a thread for it so we can see how it evolves.
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an uncanny otter
post Apr 22 2012, 02:33 PM
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Forecast is calling for 30C in Medicine Hat and parts of southern Alberta tomorrow! Could be the first 30C reading in Canada this year.
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